This seems to be an example of the kind of propaganda doing the rounds in Russia at the moment. I almost wonder if Pantin is a nome de guerre of Alexander Dugin.
Based on the analysis of Kondratieff’s cycles and the evolutionary cycles of the world political system, and also on the basis of an empirical analysis of current events and trends with a high (approximately 90%) probability, it can be argued that in the coming years a “hot” local war will break out, in which Russia will have to direct and active participation.
In this war, Russia will have to defend its national interests and the very right to independent existence. The enemy of Russia will be the United States and its allies, including assorted terrorists, the Afghan Taliban and nationalists from Ukraine, from the Baltic states, Poland and some other EU countries.
The high probability and, in fact, the inevitability of the coming “hot” local war stems from the crucially important fact that the United States cannot definitively overcome the numerous social and domestic consequences of the global crisis of 2008–2009. and the subsequent recession (in fact, depression) without a major war that would change the entire geopolitical and geo-economic map of the world.
According to experts, any new recession will put millions of Americans on the brink of survival due to huge and ever-increasing debts, and the US state will face serious internal problems.
Another reason for the war for the United States is that without war, it is impossible to overcome the growing split of the American elites, the split of the entire American society and ensure the "unity of the West", that is, the complete subordination of the EU countries to the United States (these splits, as practice shows it is impossible to eliminate only through propaganda, sanctions and Russophobia, so it is precisely the local war that is needed). The United States at all costs need a victory in the war, which would sharply weaken Russia, China and the EU and would strengthen the US domination in the world.
Russia is seen as the main object of a future war for the United States because it is the most important link in the chain of states whose interests diverge from those of the United States. By removing or dramatically weakening Russia, the United States will be able to destroy China’s plans to create and develop the One Belt - One Way project, completely subjugate the EU countries, destroy the Eurasian Economic Union and dictate its conditions throughout the post-Soviet space.
The goal of the “hot” local war with Russia is to defeat it and sharply weaken or dismember the Russian state without using strategic nuclear weapons, but using the latest military technology, high-precision and tactical nuclear weapons of “low power”. At the same time, the “fifth column” existing in Russia will be fully involved, various provocations and attempts of “color revolutions” will precede military actions.
According to the evolutionary cycles of the world political system and a specific analysis of political dynamics, the closest and very real analogues of the future local war are the Crimean War of 1853–1856, in which the Ottoman Empire, Britain, France, the Sardinian Kingdom, and the Korean War of 1950–1953 fought against Russia , in which the United States and its numerous allies fought against the USSR and China.
In either case, in fact, this was a clash between Russia and the Anglo-Saxon world: in the case of the Crimean War, Britain was the initiator and instigator of the anti-Russian coalition, in the case of the Korean War, the United States.
The logic of the consistent preparation of a major war with Russia includes such seemingly unrelated events as the “Arab Spring”, the creation in 2013 of the ISIL (a banned organization in Russia), the coup d'état in Ukraine in 2014, the US withdrawal from The Treaty on Medium and Short Range Missiles, preparation for the US withdrawal from the START-3 Treaty. The US agreement with the Taliban (banned organization in Russia), destabilization of the situation in Central Asia, attempts to break off Belarus from Russia, the allocation of significant funds to destabilize the situation in Russia and the preparation of a "color revolution" in it, etc.
In addition, in the United States there is an accelerated development of new and new types of non-nuclear weapons, huge and ever-increasing funds are being allocated to re-equip the army.
At the same time, Russia's victories in South Ossetia in 2008, in Syria in 2015–2018, as well as the development of new high-tech weapons, with all their importance, should not contribute to calm and relaxation. And Georgia, Saakashvili, and a more serious opponent - the terrorists in Syria were not really serious opponents.
On the eve of June 22, 1941, the USSR defeated Japanese troops on Lake Hassan and Khalkhin-Gol, as well as in the war with Finland 1939-1940, but the Soviet state was not ready. There were also the newest types of weapons in the Soviet army, but they were not enough, and many soldiers did not know how to handle them.
Extremely alarming is the fact that Russia, beginning with the Crimean War in the middle of the XIX century. and ending with the South Ossetian conflict of 2008, each time it turned out not ready for war, and new types of weapons did not have time to get into the army before the war, which led to huge and unjustified losses.
Currently, many new types of weapons are still not brought to mass use in the army, still testing and fine-tuning of weapons such as Dagger, Sarmat, Poseidon, Zircon and others are being carried out. Caliber missiles and the number of aircraft (especially bombers) is significantly less than that of the United States.
Meanwhile, it is aviation and high-precision missiles, along with other types of modern weapons, are likely to be used most actively in the upcoming local war (local wars).
The most likely theaters of war can be Ukraine, the countries of Central Asia, the countries of the Middle East (Syria) and the Baltic countries. Most likely, the United States will try to organize military operations on several fronts at once so that Russia will disperse its forces and attention. Something similar happened, for example, during the Crimean War, when Russia had to simultaneously confront the forces hostile to it, not only in the Crimea, but also in the Baltic, in the White Sea, in Moldova and Wallachia, in the Caucasus, in the Pacific Ocean.
At the same time, it is important to emphasize that the United States will largely act by proxy, the Taliban (a banned organization in Russia), ISIL (a banned organization in Russia), Ukrainian and Lithuanian nationalists, etc., although general guidance will be exercised by American instructors and generals.
At the second stage, most likely, NATO forces, mainly American troops using the most modern technologies (including high-precision weapons, cyberwar, sabotage, destruction of civilian objects) will be simultaneously involved in quickly suppressing enemy control centers and creating panic among the population.
The most likely time frame for the hot phase of the “hybrid” war with Russia is the period of 2024-2025, when the term of the presidency of Vladimir Putin ends. However, the preparation for this “hot” phase of the war is already well under way and will continue throughout the 2019-2024 period.
Attempts to “test” Russia, weaken it, and create significant problems for it in Central Asia, in Ukraine, and in the Middle East will be made in 2019-2023. A dangerous point when another military conflict may flare up is 2020–2021, on the eve of and immediately after the next presidential elections in the United States. Ever-increasing economic and financial anti-Russian sanctions serve the same purpose.
For Russia, the question of life and death is the readiness of the state and society for such a development, for the “acute” and “hot” phase of the war, the lack of illusions about the possibility of reaching an agreement with the United States in the period under review until 2024-2025 on any issues whatsoever. Despite preparations for war, Russia was not ready either for the Crimean War, for the First World War, for the Second World War, for the war in Afghanistan of 1979–1989, or for the first Chechen war.
The calculation of the United States is that Russia will once again be unprepared for a local war with massive use of conventional but high-tech weapons, precision weapons, cyber weapons, low-power nuclear missiles on several fronts. In addition, the United States is counting on the actions of the “fifth column”, on a split in Russian society and the Russian elite, on elementary bribery, on nationalist and extremist movements in Russia itself.
Therefore, it is necessary today to prepare for the almost inevitable future war, tomorrow it will be too late. It is extremely important in the shortest possible time to provide troops on a massive scale with the latest weapons and, most importantly, have time to train them in their handling of them. As you know, at the beginning of the Great Patriotic War, new types of weapons — KV tanks, T-34s, large-caliber artillery, aircraft, Katyusha and especially new reliable types of communication — the troops were practically not provided and often did not know how to handle them. The consequences of this were disastrous.
Currently, one of the vulnerable points is still reliable communications and a sufficient number of precision weapons. Now the situation is no less, and even more serious, in no case should neither this situation nor the enemy be underestimated. Otherwise, Russia could be defeated, and defeat even in a local war in combination with internal “color revolutions” can be fatal and final (examples include the defeat of Russia in the Russian-Japanese war or the failure of the USSR in Afghanistan, which played an important role in the collapse of the state) .
In this case, Russia may lose its sovereignty, independence and cease to exist, which is the goal of numerous external and internal anti-Russian forces. It is also impossible to expect the army to learn how to fight during the war, as it was during the Great Patriotic War, since military operations during the local war will develop very quickly, and everything can be decided in a few days or hours.
It is worth remembering the prophetic warning of Marshal Zhukov: “My word to you, young people: be always vigilant! The day of delay in the past war cost us very dearly. Now, in the event of a crisis, the score can go on for seconds. ”(Memories and reflections. In 3 volumes. Vol. 3).
It is necessary to make full use of the time remaining until 2021-2024 to prepare for future trials. The war and the huge risks associated with it can be limited only by the constant demonstration of the real (and not only propaganda) readiness of the Russian troops to repel aggression on various fronts, including the “internal” front.
Vladimir Pantin - Head of the Department of IMEMO RAN, Doctor of Philosophy
Edited by Stuart Galbraith, 08 April 2019 - 0232 AM.