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And We Are Off To The Races

German Elections 2013

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#1441 BansheeOne

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Posted 03 September 2019 - 0254 AM

No, they won eight districts directly with candidates who weren't on the shortened state list, so they can fill all but one of their 39 seats. Of course their legal complaints against that cap are ongoing regardless of actual election results, and at some point there will be a definite ruling. However, if there is a re-run of the elections, it is currently more likely due to difficult coalition talks with the Greens failing to produce a new government within the four months mandated by the Saxony state constitution. A terminal finding by the state court is probably going to take longer, maybe years.
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#1442 Markus Becker

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Posted 03 September 2019 - 0556 AM

 
Meanwhile the AfD has filed a lot of legal complaints including criminal charges against various persons and institutions of the Freestate Saxonia related to the cutting of the list. Looks like saxonian law maybe does not say the candidate list has to be assembled in one convention. This is going to be interesting and lots of work for lawyers.
 

That's going to be interesting. The chair of the election commission had been warned by a civil servant of the interior ministry that her decision would almost certainly be unlawful but at the same time she was allegedly getting pressure from the office of the Ministerpresident to go ahead anyway.

Edited by Markus Becker, 03 September 2019 - 0557 AM.

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#1443 Panzermann

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Posted 03 September 2019 - 0933 AM

No, they won eight districts directly with candidates who weren't on the shortened state list, so they can fill all but one of their 39 seats. Of course their legal complaints against that cap are ongoing regardless of actual election results, and at some point there will be a definite ruling. However, if there is a re-run of the elections, it is currently more likely due to difficult coalition talks with the Greens failing to produce a new government within the four months mandated by the Saxony state constitution. A terminal finding by the state court is probably going to take longer, maybe years.

 

So still one seat missing. The trials may take years. Which is rather defeats the purpose, because if they rule in favour of the AfD, then what? Turn back time? Jump in the DeLorean? Why does it take so long? The parties involved have all an interest in  a quick decision, so should not be dragging their feet sending their papers to court.

 

 

That a three way talk for a coalition is a finicky thing is of course also true. Though that does not neessarily mean that a snap election (;)) has to be run. there is always the minority governemnt. But for that the then ruling party would have to talk to the AfD and all the others. Ruling as king of saxonia for five years and having yesmen in form of the government coalition in parliament makes it all so much easier.


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#1444 BansheeOne

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Posted 03 September 2019 - 1128 AM

Well, for size: In 2014 Saxonian AfD member Arvid Samtleben sued before the State Court because the party had stricken him from their state list after he was duly voted onto it by their convention. In 2018 the court found this was illegal, and the state election board shouldn't have admitted the list (this case has been cited as a possible reason for the board being very strict on the formalities of this year's AfD list). However, the court also rejected Samtleben's demand for an election re-run, since the makeup of the state assembly correctly represented the election result for the party overall, and all its MPs had democratic legitimation, even if there had been none for kicking Samtleben off the original list.

The material situation is different here, and there is another example. In 1991, Hamburg CDU member Markus Ernst Wegner and some others similarly sued before the city-state's constitutional court because like for decades, party brass had made up the election list among themselves, then just had the convention vote on the whole draft; delegates also would have had to reject it twice before even getting the chance for an alternate proposal. In 1993 the court found this illegal, too, and ordered immediate new elections. These were called after the city and state assembly disbanded itself, and constituted a complete new four-year term rather than taking the form of by-elections. Wegner founded the STATT Party which entered the new assembly and formed a coalition with the SPD, as the latter lost its majority, mostly due to the rising Greens.
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#1445 BansheeOne

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Posted 18 September 2019 - 0650 AM

The Greens are thus looking at government participation in both states; but while they gained in what has long been difficult terrain in East Germany for them, their results didn't quite meet projections. That's probably their recent inflated poll numbers after the European elections meeting reality on the ground, and I expect this to reflect in upcoming national polls.


As predicted, the Greens have dropped further to 21-23 percent in recent polls, four to seven points behind CDU/CSU. The AfD has also seen a slight upswing following their successes in Brandenburg and Saxony, though we're talking one or two points to 12-16 percent. Of course that means the potential Bundestag gets bigger again at 748 seats.

btw21e_prognose_190917.png
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#1446 TonyE

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Posted 18 September 2019 - 0742 AM

 

......Of course that means the potential Bundestag gets bigger again at 748 seats.
 

 

:D :D :D :D

When it reaches 800, can we declare it "Der Großtag"? :D


Edited by TonyE, 18 September 2019 - 0742 AM.

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#1447 BansheeOne

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Posted 18 September 2019 - 0813 AM

Ooohhh, even better: Der Großdeutsche Bundestag! :D
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#1448 BansheeOne

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Posted 23 September 2019 - 1344 PM

Thuringia looks interesting. Election.de points out that with their current projection for the next state assembly, any majority government would need to include two out of the Left Party, AfD and CDU. Now East German CDU functionaries, aware of the deterioration of conventional coalition opportunities, have floated thoughts of going with either before, but the party in general is ruling that out.

Personally I think the Left should form a government with the AfD. Their voter base is essentially the same anyway. :D

th19_prognose_sitze_190922.png

th19e_prognose_190922.png
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#1449 Markus Becker

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Posted 24 September 2019 - 0321 AM

They don't need a new government, they can keep the old one. Usually there are new elections if a new government is not formed within a certain time but inThuringia the constitution allows the old one to remain in office until a new one is formed no matter how long that takes. And they'd even have the money to govern. In a breach of the constitution they already passed next years budget this year.

This will go to court but it is expected to take a tear before there is a ruling.
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#1450 JasonJ

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Posted 24 September 2019 - 0523 AM

...


As predicted, the Greens have dropped further to 21-23 percent in recent polls, four to seven points behind CDU/CSU. The AfD has also seen a slight upswing following their successes in Brandenburg and Saxony, though we're talking one or two points to 12-16 percent. Of course that means the potential Bundestag gets bigger again at 748 seats.btw21e_prognose_190917.png

Possibly a dumb question, but why is there no FDP anywhere in the graph?
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#1451 BansheeOne

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Posted 24 September 2019 - 0625 AM

Mind this is projecting individual candidates winning districts directly, something that was largely the preserve of the two (formerly) big parties for the longest time, though the Left Party always managed that in East Germany, too. The only FDP candidate who ever pulled it off was then-foreign minister Hans-Dietrich Genscher in his native East German Halle post reunification, in which he played a highly visible role.

Likewise, the only Green district used to be won by alternative icon Hans-Christian Ströbele in "colorful" Berlin-Kreuzberg. With the shrinking of CDU/CSU and SPD at the polls, and the rise of Greens and AfD as the new poles in politics, the picture has changed.

Edited by BansheeOne, 24 September 2019 - 0626 AM.

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#1452 Panzermann

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Posted 26 September 2019 - 1128 AM

Mind this is projecting individual candidates winning districts directly, something that was largely the preserve of the two (formerly) big parties for the longest time, though the Left Party always managed that in East Germany, too. The only FDP candidate who ever pulled it off was then-foreign minister Hans-Dietrich Genscher in his native East German Halle post reunification, in which he played a highly visible role.

Likewise, the only Green district used to be won by alternative icon Hans-Christian Ströbele in "colorful" Berlin-Kreuzberg. With the shrinking of CDU/CSU and SPD at the polls, and the rise of Greens and AfD as the new poles in politics, the picture has changed.


I think directly elected FDP candidates have been in state elections in the past a few times. But it was very rare for a directly elected candidate to not be from either CDU/CSU or SPD. But that has been shifting the last few years as you say with the erosion of the formerly big two. hence the two clinging to each other in the "grand" coalition despite historically hating each other. And thus eroding evermore, because people cannot seea  difference between the two.

 

 

Personally I think the Left should form a government with the AfD. Their voter base is essentially the same anyway. :D

 

 

Evil tongues might say that neither party actually furthers their voter's interests. ;)

 

 

 

 

 

......Of course that means the potential Bundestag gets bigger again at 748 seats.
 

 

:D :D :D :D

When it reaches 800, can we declare it "Der Großtag"? :D

 

 

 

Ooohhh, even better: Der Großdeutsche Bundestag! :D

 

 

National German's Congress - 国民议会?


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#1453 BansheeOne

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Posted Today, 02:01 AM

Since the district map hasn't really changed since last month, I'm posting the projection of runners-up for a change again. Distinctive triple partition: Green candidates are placing second in most of Schleswig-Holstein in the North, Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg in the South. For AfD candidates it's the same in most of East Germany and a stretch of Bavaria along the Czech border (this might actually be a function of anger over cross-border crime, something also often heard on the Polish border). Most of the West remains for SPD candidates, though in this case that's probably a sign of the party generally having fallen behind rather than of ascendancy like for the other two.

 

Greens, FDP and Left Party have launched an initiative to reduce the number of districts from 299 to 250 and modestly increase regular seats in the Bundestag from 598 to 630 to get around the problem of ballooning extra seats to compensate for the differences in primary and secondary vote. There would still be some of the latter under current conditions, but the total is projected to be only 663 rather than 771 (present number is 719). CDU/CSU, who profit most from the current scheme, are of course against it; the SPD hasn't voiced an opinion yet.

 

btw21e_prognose_191014_zweiter.png


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#1454 JasonJ

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Posted Today, 02:54 AM

 

Ooohhh, even better: Der Großdeutsche Bundestag! :D

 

 

National German's Congress - 国民议会?

 

 

May need to add 德国 in front to indicate specifically for German otherwise without context, its unspecified.

 

So 德国国民议会

 

Now, there are two "country" characters which is the 国. The first being part of the country name, 德 for German, and the second one being part of "national"

 

For the US Congress, there are two 国 but for the British parliament, there's just one

 

So if its more preferable, going with one is fine too it seems, in which case 德国民议会


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#1455 TonyE

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Posted Today, 07:11 AM

 

......but the total is projected to be only 663 rather than 771 (present number is 719).......

 

 

"Der Kleintag"????? :o :o :o :o


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