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MidwayŚ77 Years Ago, Today.


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#501 JasonJ

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Posted 09 July 2019 - 1737 PM

What's more surprising is the mixing of ally justice feeling with hindsight view that speaks in bias automatically set to be contray. The same argument could be pointed the other way had history played differently.

 
You sure about that? show me the US invading Manchuria in 1931 using a false flag operation, and then going for the rest of the country. Show me the US officers running wages to see who cuts more Japanese heads, or the routine execution and abuse of PoWs, because, according to you, the same arguments could be pointed the other way...

I've already posted. Quit assuming and start reading.
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#502 nitflegal

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Posted 09 July 2019 - 2133 PM

 

 

A third device was going to be ready in theatre before the end of August.
They expected to have nine devices by the end of September and continue production at a starting rate of three per month.

The Japanese surrender allowed the US to halt production and build a safer and more efficient production line.

Not to be contrary (and taken with a grain of salt since I'm relying on experts rather than being one!) but I think there are some doubts as to being able to achieve that.  I attended a talk with Captain Sweeney years ago and he made a an interesting comment about there being far more debate about returning with a bomb than published because if Hiroshima didn't cause a surrender their bomb would "expire" and it was uncertain when they would get a replacement to drop.  That didn't make a lot of sense until reading Dr. Curatola's book years later and having a chance to hear him speak and the program was in a lot more uncertain state than I had ever read.  Even before it fell to crap at the end of the war they were really not at a technical level to do what they were doing, they were persevering by brute force and effort and not an insignificant amount of risk.  Apparently internally there was a lot of doubt that they would get anywhere close to those production levels and were encouraging backing off on nukes for Downfall as much as possible without bluntly stating "you might not have them".  

 

Was this the book you refer to?

https://www.archives...2016/16-10.html

I might get that, looks like my cup of tea.

 

That's the one.  Its very interesting and engagingly written.  He also has a great hour long talk at the Kansas library on the book on youtube.


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#503 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 10 July 2019 - 0258 AM

Thanks, Ill listen to that. Im kind of running out of podcasts to listen to whilst I work.


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#504 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 10 July 2019 - 0746 AM

That was pretty good. He also does a number of different lectures, and the one on Strategic bombing was also pretty good.


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#505 RETAC21

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Posted 10 July 2019 - 1256 PM

 

 

What's more surprising is the mixing of ally justice feeling with hindsight view that speaks in bias automatically set to be contray. The same argument could be pointed the other way had history played differently.

 
You sure about that? show me the US invading Manchuria in 1931 using a false flag operation, and then going for the rest of the country. Show me the US officers running wages to see who cuts more Japanese heads, or the routine execution and abuse of PoWs, because, according to you, the same arguments could be pointed the other way...

I've already posted. Quit assuming and start reading.

 

 

I aren't assuming anything, all you have posted is "what aboutist" non-sense, I guess you can't rise above the Last Dingo level.


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#506 JasonJ

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Posted 10 July 2019 - 1706 PM

 

 

 

What's more surprising is the mixing of ally justice feeling with hindsight view that speaks in bias automatically set to be contray. The same argument could be pointed the other way had history played differently.

 
You sure about that? show me the US invading Manchuria in 1931 using a false flag operation, and then going for the rest of the country. Show me the US officers running wages to see who cuts more Japanese heads, or the routine execution and abuse of PoWs, because, according to you, the same arguments could be pointed the other way...
I've already posted. Quit assuming and start reading.
 
 
I aren't assuming anything, all you have posted is "what aboutist" non-sense, I guess you can't rise above the Last Dingo level.
 
 
Can you post by linking to those examples of "what aboutism" as to why they aren't relevant?

Edited by JasonJ, 10 July 2019 - 1709 PM.

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#507 Nobu

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Posted 10 July 2019 - 1820 PM

"It has been reported that when the remains of Japanese soldiers were repatriated from the Mariana Islands in 1984, sixty percent were missing their skulls."

 

http://george.loper....002/Mar/65.html


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#508 Brian Kennedy

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Posted 10 July 2019 - 1848 PM

"It has been reported that when the remains of Japanese soldiers were repatriated from the Mariana Islands in 1984, sixty percent were missing their skulls."

 

http://george.loper....002/Mar/65.html

 

At least they didn't eat their livers.


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#509 Brian Kennedy

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Posted 10 July 2019 - 1905 PM

Or if you would prefer a Japanese source: https://www.theguard...man-experiments
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#510 R011

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Posted 10 July 2019 - 1910 PM


"It has been reported that when the remains of Japanese soldiers were repatriated from the Mariana Islands in 1984, sixty percent were missing their skulls."
 
http://george.loper....002/Mar/65.html

 
At least they didn't eat their livers.
Chianti shortage.

Edited by R011, 10 July 2019 - 1911 PM.

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#511 Yama

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Posted 15 July 2019 - 0525 AM

 

The Japanese military was hoping for the kind of peace Germany got in 1919 only better. The Allies were not interested in a twenty year armistice as that peace was presciently described by Foch.

They could have got terms as good from 1942 on - as soon as it was obvious that they could not win. Japan had no one but its government and its military masters to blame for the war and its consequences.

 

The Japanese probably did not anticipate the US was going to take such an uncompromising position on negotiations.  Why they might have had this impression is that Japan had a long history as an Asian power as being treated with respect, as an equal, in the Great Power club.  Once the Japanese lost Saipan and Tojo fell, this should have been taken as the signal that the Japanese were ready to admit they'd lost the war, and start talks.     

 

 

Japanese were expecting/hoping something similar to Russo-Japanese war. They would score few big wins by help of surprise, initiative and concentration of forces. Conquests would serve both as operational basis and negotiation pieces for the peace. You don't need to keep all you capture, in the end you can make big 'concessions' to other side, making the settlement more attractive to them and still end up with more or less what you originally wanted.

 

I do not submit to the view that Allied victory in WW2 was inevitable. Sure enough, population and economic statistics heavily stacked the deck to their favour, but the cards still needed to be played. After the first part of their plan went quite well (in some ways even better than they hoped), they fell victim to what they called 'victory disease' or what I call 'one more push -syndrome'. Hey, we achieved a good but not complete success here, maybe if we try it again with just few more ships and battalions, it will work out...and before you know it, you're no longer scoring overwhelming victories, you are trading ships and men at 1-to-1 rate which you can ill afford.


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#512 Brian Kennedy

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Posted 16 July 2019 - 1910 PM

 

 

The Japanese military was hoping for the kind of peace Germany got in 1919 only better. The Allies were not interested in a twenty year armistice as that peace was presciently described by Foch.

They could have got terms as good from 1942 on - as soon as it was obvious that they could not win. Japan had no one but its government and its military masters to blame for the war and its consequences.

 

The Japanese probably did not anticipate the US was going to take such an uncompromising position on negotiations.  Why they might have had this impression is that Japan had a long history as an Asian power as being treated with respect, as an equal, in the Great Power club.  Once the Japanese lost Saipan and Tojo fell, this should have been taken as the signal that the Japanese were ready to admit they'd lost the war, and start talks.     

 

 

I do not submit to the view that Allied victory in WW2 was inevitable. Sure enough, population and economic statistics heavily stacked the deck to their favour, but the cards still needed to be played. After the first part of their plan went quite well (in some ways even better than they hoped), they fell victim to what they called 'victory disease' or what I call 'one more push -syndrome'. Hey, we achieved a good but not complete success here, maybe if we try it again with just few more ships and battalions, it will work out...and before you know it, you're no longer scoring overwhelming victories, you are trading ships and men at 1-to-1 rate which you can ill afford.

 

 

I've never actually seen a convincing alt-history about the Axis winning WW2 that didn't involve Hitler or the Japanese High Command suddenly getting brain transplants. (To be honest, the "what if Hitler was hit by a truck in 1942"-type ones seem more plausible). You want to treat WW2 like a wargame? Easy, Hitler keeps up the non-aggression pact with the SU and goes for the Med instead after losing the Battle of Britain, he wins and the world is plunged into a new dark age. That had nothing to do with Hitler's actual goals, so it's about as realistic/useful as me wondering how my life would turn out if I was born rich and good looking. :)

 

I think what we keep trying to tell (cough) certain posters here is that it's pointless to think about alternate-history stuff without considering the actual historical context, goals, etc. of the people involved, because then it just devolves into "what if the US and Japan teamed up and conquered the worrrrllddd!" ridiculousness. And honestly it's a bit morally offensive to treat WW2 like some kind of wargame, given the death toll.

 

Edit to add: this is obviously not directed at you, Yama.


Edited by Brian Kennedy, 16 July 2019 - 1935 PM.

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#513 glenn239

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Posted 17 July 2019 - 0757 AM

 

 

The Japanese military was hoping for the kind of peace Germany got in 1919 only better. The Allies were not interested in a twenty year armistice as that peace was presciently described by Foch.

They could have got terms as good from 1942 on - as soon as it was obvious that they could not win. Japan had no one but its government and its military masters to blame for the war and its consequences.

 

The Japanese probably did not anticipate the US was going to take such an uncompromising position on negotiations.  Why they might have had this impression is that Japan had a long history as an Asian power as being treated with respect, as an equal, in the Great Power club.  Once the Japanese lost Saipan and Tojo fell, this should have been taken as the signal that the Japanese were ready to admit they'd lost the war, and start talks.     

 

 

Japanese were expecting/hoping something similar to Russo-Japanese war. They would score few big wins by help of surprise, initiative and concentration of forces. Conquests would serve both as operational basis and negotiation pieces for the peace. You don't need to keep all you capture, in the end you can make big 'concessions' to other side, making the settlement more attractive to them and still end up with more or less what you originally wanted.

 

I do not submit to the view that Allied victory in WW2 was inevitable. Sure enough, population and economic statistics heavily stacked the deck to their favour, but the cards still needed to be played. After the first part of their plan went quite well (in some ways even better than they hoped), they fell victim to what they called 'victory disease' or what I call 'one more push -syndrome'. Hey, we achieved a good but not complete success here, maybe if we try it again with just few more ships and battalions, it will work out...and before you know it, you're no longer scoring overwhelming victories, you are trading ships and men at 1-to-1 rate which you can ill afford.

 

 

Tough to see how Japan emerges victorious in WW2, but even if defeated there was no reason to suppose that the United States would or even should go for unconditional surrender.  That had to be an unpleasant surprise in Tokyo when that got announced.  In terms of the Japanese strategy, they get criticized for a lack of attention to ASW and being too inclined to using small forces on the advance.  But ASW investment was a long war strategy which Japan loses by default, and bold advances on the cheap had been highly successful for the Japanese prior to 1942.

 

Brian Kennedy I've never actually seen a convincing alt-history about the Axis winning WW2 that didn't involve Hitler or the Japanese High Command suddenly getting brain transplants. (

 

 

The German attack on the Soviet Union was the fatal misstep for the Axis Powers.  

 

...what we keep trying to tell (cough) certain posters here is that it's pointless to think about alternate-history stuff without considering the actual historical context, goals, etc.

 

 

Any individual interpretation of a historical player's motives is not some immutable law of the universe.  You think Hitler invaded the Soviet Union for ideological reasons?  Ok, but so what?  Hitler said he invaded the SU because he thought he would win the war and dominate Europe.    Two goals which were fairly standard objectives for European Great Powers.  And even Hitler admitted on occassion that if he'd known how strong the USSR would actually prove to be he'd not have done it.   Where Hitler fell down was in the jingoist optimism department - he was too optimistic about his chances, a common failing with this type. 

 

 

 

And honestly it's a bit morally offensive to treat WW2 like some kind of wargame, given the death toll.

 

 

 

Like with Hitler and Russia, jingoism is a reckless approach to real danger in the foreign policy sphere in which the propagandist minimizes the real level of danger by conjuring some bullshit theory to paper over just how bad it could actually have been.  The enemy is said to be weak and stupid when they might not be either.  The stakes are said to be high when they might be low.  Japan made this same mistake with the USA in 1941, (risking war with the US because of the embargo was the wrong move).  Jingoism is a human failing that can poison the thinking of all governments and militaries - any cultural institution populated by know-it-all blowhards that are on a winning streak - not just the countries whose leaders that don't speak English.  In WW2 the nightmare scenario for the Allies was a German-Soviet alliance and anyone that thinks this was not a real possibility simply due to Nazi ideology is underestimating the actual level of danger.


Edited by glenn239, 17 July 2019 - 0800 AM.

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#514 lastdingo

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Posted 17 July 2019 - 1516 PM

A combination of Junkers Ju 288A with Jumo 222A/B and Fritz-X (with many more radio channels for choice) could have been devastating on North Atlantic, NE Indian Ocean, Pacific Ocean and Mediterranean.

 

It could have devastated fleets (and CVs) enough to largely prevent or foil invasions. The Japanese could have been defeated by a coast crawl from India to Korea (helped by annihilation of Japanese cargo shipping by submarines), but the 15+ CVs of the Essex class would not have been decisive any more.

Germany could have allocated another 10% of its land power to the Eastern Front, and this might have sufficed against the Soviet Union (which was bled white by mid '45) if the Africa campaign would have been aborted in mid-1942 as an additional unhistorical move (saving 400,000 troops with many tanks and trucks, enough to fortify the Med's northern shores AND to stabilise the Eastern Front in late 1942).

 

 

In the end, Japan lacked convoy ASW, was short on cargo and tanker ships, lacked CTL fuel plants, needed to get done in China first, had an aviation industry in its infancy (only partially able to patch over its shortcomings; Japan was an importer of cockpit instruments by late 1941!), didn't value speed/ high altitude performance enough in military aircraft and had too basic anti-shipping munitions (best airborne torpedo of 1941, bust still too basic).

Most of all, both Germany and Japan lacked an idea about how to END the war short of conquering all opposition - which was impossible by the time the U.S. joined.


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#515 Ken Estes

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Posted 17 July 2019 - 1617 PM

My God, a whole new psychothriller would-be interpretation, when all looked like peace in our time for awhile.

 

Where to begin? Gag a maggot, you guys take over. Ju 288A invincibles, egad.


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#516 Brian Kennedy

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Posted 17 July 2019 - 1629 PM

My God, a whole new psychothriller would-be interpretation, when all looked like peace in our time for awhile.
 
Where to begin? Gag a maggot, you guys take over. Ju 288A invincibles, egad.


The more I think about it, the Alien Space Bat stuff is kind of more tedious than offensive really. Certainly not useful though.
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#517 JWB

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Posted 18 July 2019 - 1014 AM

Vaporware.


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#518 RETAC21

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Posted 18 July 2019 - 1353 PM

My God, a whole new psychothriller would-be interpretation, when all looked like peace in our time for awhile.

 

Where to begin? Gag a maggot, you guys take over. Ju 288A invincibles, egad.

 

Wunderwaffe at its best, Ken, and from a German as a bonus!

 

Don't you feel motivated now to write another book about them? :D


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#519 Harold Jones

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Posted 18 July 2019 - 1434 PM

It's wiki but this seems rather damming of the Ju288.  Seems a rather poor basket to put a whole war winning strategy in.

Delivering all of these requirements in a single airframe demanded much more powerful engines, and all of the Bomber B concepts, at one time or another, relied on the Junkers Jumo 222 engine to deliver this power. Ultimately, the Jumo 222 was a failure in spite of massive effort and several redesigns over a period of several years, with nearly 300 development prototypes produced. No suitable replacement was ever forthcoming,

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#520 Markus Becker

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Posted 18 July 2019 - 1448 PM

Let's get back into more serious territory. German airfields were different from the ones in the Pacific. For starters German triple A was way stronger and the fields were not on some far, far away island. Distances were short and resupply could be done by rail.

To suppress them you'd need very sustained bombing, not the one big alpha strike typical of carriers.
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