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China's Peaceful Rise

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#2361 Roman Alymov

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Posted 11 February 2019 - 1510 PM

From Soviet-Chinese relations history



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zscg9GVJ1j0


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#2362 Tim the Tank Nut

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 1200 PM

Roman, I don't know if you or I will live long enough (I think we are about the same age) to see the Chinese invasion of the Russian Federation but it is likely coming.

Amongst the many considerations are the fact that Chairman for Life Xi can't deliver what he has promised his people.  As the Chinese economy has grown, societal pressures have increased.  There are a LOT of Chinese.  Now  China's economy is like an over inflated balloon.  If it pops then all bets are off.  You are assuming that because China and Russia share a bond through similar political systems that you are safe but a hungry animal doesn't give much thought to prey.

It's possible that if China collapses they'll come after the West rather than the East but neither the US or Japan has the natural resources that Russia has claim to.

It may be that China works it all out but I think the odds would lean towards being prepared rather than ignoring it.


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#2363 glenn239

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 1216 PM

Tim, the idea of resource extraction by force does not work.  It is invariably cheaper and more efficient to buy the resources from the locals at a fairly marked up price rather than invade them to take it.  The Russians are more than willing to supply China with resources at a fair price.  Add in the fact that the Russians can use tactical nuclear on their own soil in Siberia to wipe out any invasion without any attacks in China, and the Chinese would have to be suicidal to invade.

 

In terms of the Chinese economy, they're rich enough already that they can survive a recession.  The biggest threat, IMO, might be loss of SLOC or damage to key civilian infrastructure from precision weapons - and that's more a US-China thing that a China-Russia thing.  I think China will behave itself for the next decade - in all directions.


Edited by glenn239, 12 February 2019 - 1218 PM.

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#2364 Tim the Tank Nut

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 1544 PM

I think the risks come in a 50 year time frame.

If you look at a map and compare the relative size of the two countries versus population density and resource I would have a whole lot more tanks on my Chinese border than anywhere else.

It isn't a smart economic move at all but right up to the first gunfire in 1914 people in government were talking about the various nations being economically dependent on each other to way war impractical.

 

China is in for some difficult times, particularly when their population imbalance between men and women starts to have an effect on current reproduction rates.  Couple that with the monies wasted in the Road and Belt initiative and China's adversarial approach to most of its neighbors and trouble is brewing.

 

It's a shame because China has made a real effort in wildlife management and the average Chinese peasant seems like decent hardworking people but move up a few rungs in society and the Chinese are sure that they are better than everyone else


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#2365 Simon Tan

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Posted 12 February 2019 - 1827 PM

If China behaves like the US...... The basic problem is that Sam is a hypocrite.
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#2366 glenn239

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Posted 13 February 2019 - 0839 AM

I think the risks come in a 50 year time frame.

If you look at a map and compare the relative size of the two countries versus population density and resource I would have a whole lot more tanks on my Chinese border than anywhere else.

It isn't a smart economic move at all but right up to the first gunfire in 1914 people in government were talking about the various nations being economically dependent on each other to way war impractical.

 

China is in for some difficult times, particularly when their population imbalance between men and women starts to have an effect on current reproduction rates.  Couple that with the monies wasted in the Road and Belt initiative and China's adversarial approach to most of its neighbors and trouble is brewing.

 

It's a shame because China has made a real effort in wildlife management and the average Chinese peasant seems like decent hardworking people but move up a few rungs in society and the Chinese are sure that they are better than everyone else

 

I suspect you see that the US is on course for a confrontation beyond its strength with multiple powers across the depth and breadth of Africa-Eurasia, and you are grasping at straws?  Because China and Russia do not look to be falling out anytime soon, and timelines of "50 years" may also mean "never", politically.


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#2367 Josh

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Posted 13 February 2019 - 0901 AM

The US and China will go to war long before any Russo-Sino conflict. Though ironically almost no territory would change hands.
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#2368 Nobu

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Posted 13 February 2019 - 0924 AM

I'd wager that India and Pakistan will end up going to war first if their border skirmishes every year since 2013 and the 138 KIA Pakistanis claimed by India in 2017 alone are any indication of the contempt they have for each other.

 

Their inability to settle their border demarcation disagreements without killing each other by the hundreds in contrast to Moscow and Beijing, who unfortunately appear to have done just that, is also indicative in various ways.


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#2369 Tim the Tank Nut

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Posted 13 February 2019 - 0949 AM

US strength is not an issue.  Again, big oceans.  They can't get here.

Upcoming military entanglements are going to cause the massive economic disruption.   The massive economic disruption will cause the military strife


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#2370 Roman Alymov

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Posted 14 February 2019 - 1323 PM

"One of the greatest inventors now a philanthropist Bill Gates has come out in praise of China and his admiration of Chinese innovations"


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#2371 Chris Werb

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Posted Yesterday, 07:56 PM

I'd wager that India and Pakistan will end up going to war first if their border skirmishes every year since 2013 and the 138 KIA Pakistanis claimed by India in 2017 alone are any indication of the contempt they have for each other.

 

Their inability to settle their border demarcation disagreements without killing each other by the hundreds in contrast to Moscow and Beijing, who unfortunately appear to have done just that, is also indicative in various ways.

 

Perhapos I am misinterpreting you. Do you think Russia and China settling their border disputes is unfortunate?


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#2372 JasonJ

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Posted Yesterday, 08:18 PM

 

I'd wager that India and Pakistan will end up going to war first if their border skirmishes every year since 2013 and the 138 KIA Pakistanis claimed by India in 2017 alone are any indication of the contempt they have for each other.

 

Their inability to settle their border demarcation disagreements without killing each other by the hundreds in contrast to Moscow and Beijing, who unfortunately appear to have done just that, is also indicative in various ways.

 

Perhapos I am misinterpreting you. Do you think Russia and China settling their border disputes is unfortunate?

 

 

Bluntly put yes. But he isn't alone. Lots of media and such point out the disadvantage of pushing China and Russia together. Of course what would be best is if the two settled their border dispute and didn't not cause tensions in the region. But if accept the premise that they are going to cause a raise in tensions no matter what, better that they are distracted with each other than otherwise. Europe only has to deal with Russia. Japan has to deal with both. And then throw the DPRK on top of it.


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#2373 Roman Alymov

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Posted Today, 04:58 AM

Roman, I don't know if you or I will live long enough (I think we are about the same age) to see the Chinese invasion of the Russian Federation but it is likely coming.

Amongst the many considerations are the fact that Chairman for Life Xi can't deliver what he has promised his people.  As the Chinese economy has grown, societal pressures have increased.  There are a LOT of Chinese.  Now  China's economy is like an over inflated balloon.  If it pops then all bets are off. 

Tim, as i have pointed out earlier, potential Chinese invasion (or even unavoidable Chinese invasion, if not already in progress) is quite popular topic on Russian forums. So  i can't say your concerns are no shared by many in Russia. But how likely it is? Let's consider possible motivations by China for invading Russia:
1) Lack of resources.  - Yes, China is massive consumer of every sort of natural resources you could think of. But China would only be hungry for resources  as long as China is "factory of the world". China economy is dependent on export.  In case of internal or international troubles - export would be lost, and demand for resources also fall. As for me, main China problem would be providing jobs for its population - and not only jobs but highly paid ones.  China is well-off country now compared to Russia (Chinese industrial workers average salary higher than Russians one, China teenagers having more pocket money than US teenagers)  and staying on this level is challenging task. As long as China getting huge trade surplus - less developed countries like Russia, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Central Asia states, Australia, Africa etc. - are standing in line to sell resources to China.   But even if somebody in China gone crazy and decided to have resources capture campaign - first targets would be Mongolia or Kazakhstan, places with lots of resources (Kazakhstan s even more resources-rich than Russia, and way more comfortable than Eastern Siberia)  - and way less populated, with no nukes and small armies.
2)National pride. - i am not specialist in Chinese national spirit and history (we definitely need more Chinese contributors on This Great Forum), so i am not competent to judge that. As far as i understand (may be i am wrong) over thousands of years of China history next to every territory around modern China was at some point claimed by China empire, or was part of it. Why would Chinese national pride demand attack on Siberia, not on Vietnam or some other please in warm climate?

 


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#2374 Roman Alymov

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Posted Today, 05:02 AM

  You are assuming that because China and Russia share a bond through similar political systems that you are safe but a hungry animal doesn't give much thought to prey.
 

I do not think China and Russia political systems are similar - Russia is capitalist state in ultra-liberal form of it, China is strange mix of communism and capitalism. And, in your hungry animal analogy - hungry animal is looking for prey, not biting trees and rocks around. There is no prey in Russian East  -and population dencity clearly demonstrate that. Even Russians are reluctant to live there, despite of all Gov efforts to increase population of Siberia.


Edited by Roman Alymov, Today, 05:38 AM.

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#2375 Chris Werb

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Posted Today, 07:45 AM

Roman, these are the kinds of posts of yours that I really enjoy and which contribute greatly to the forum.
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#2376 Nobu

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Posted Today, 02:08 PM

Perhaps I am misinterpreting you. Do you think Russia and China settling their border disputes is unfortunate?

 

It is unfortunate, as the sight of China and Chinese being able to settle their border disputes with Russia while Japan and Japanese are not is unpleasant in various ways.

 

Even worse, it indicates a degree of rationality and pragmatism versus a vulnerability to being provoked into rage-based decisions on Beijing's part, as, if I am not mistaken, Chinese land claims based on the extent of their dynastic boundary with Tsarist Russia in the mid-19th Century extended far beyond the border agreed upon between China and Russia today. They were essentially willing to give up complete access to the Sea of Japan in exchange for stability with Russia. Interestingly, this is indicative that the primary motivation behind the actions of China and Chinese may actually be fear of losing what they have.

 

Being able to provoke Beijing into potentially stupid rage-based decisions can be potentially useful, as Ishihara likely foresaw when he decided to threaten a private purchase of the Senkakus for him to administer personally as Governor of Tokyo. Beijing's rage at the events that followed Ishihara's decision to do so pushed coverage of Fukushima out of the world's consciousness.

 

For all of Ishihara's faults, one can never accuse him of not loving Japan. 


Edited by Nobu, Today, 02:11 PM.

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#2377 Roman Alymov

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Posted Today, 03:23 PM

Roman, these are the kinds of posts of yours that I really enjoy and which contribute greatly to the forum.

Almost nothing from internal Russian political and military debate is available in English (Western media not interested as it is mostly anti-Western, and Russians mainly ignore West at all), so it is hard to me to find any useful sources reflecting Russian take from rising China power. Below is rare TV show debate -  about prospects of relations with China (and not only China)  - unfortunately, only part of general conversation translated, and they choose the speaker who is hardly professional in China affairs (famous film director) -  but he reflect "average Russian" viewpoint  on this important matter (i hope it will newer turn into really military events)
https://www.youtube....h?v=GrscSTaqftA
 


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