If the northern plan went down, and without a Pacific campaign, development of ground force equipment wouldn't have been delayed. By 1943, new 57mm anti-tank guns were developed, a medium lenght one of about 46 calibers and a long one of of around 57 calibers. These were not adopted because of resouce limitations due to the Pacific War, so the 47mm marched on.
Type 98 or Type 2 light tanks might have gotten priority for production for replacing the Ha-Go.
The Type 1 Ho-Ni was fully developed and tested out by the end of 1941 but production was limited and delayed. It was a direct fire 75mmL38 field gun with 50mm front plate, open top. So it would be expected that these would have been in full production by late 1941 if it was Far East war. Tank regiments were designed to be 1 company of LTs, 3 companies of MTs, and 1 company of "gun-tanks". The Ho-Ni was designed to fill the "gun-tank" role which was fire support. In 1942, the Ho-I "gun-tank" was developed. It was a revolving closed turret with a short 75mm, 50mm front armor, 240hp.
Instead of Chi-Ha with the Shin-hoto, priorities in production would have went to the Type 1 Chi-He.
So for 1942, could expect tank regiments to be made up of Type 98s Ke-ni LTs (if not the Ha-Go), Type Chi-He mediums, and either Ho-Ni or Ho-I
The Chi-To medium tank program was also delayed with a delayed prototype completed in May of 1944. If given priority, maybe it would be ready a year eailier. At that stage, it was 420hp diesel engine, 25 tons, 57mmL46, 75mm front armor. So by mid to late '43, these would be taking the place of the Chi-He. It received the demand for a long 75mm gun when the protype was completed in 1944. Maybe priorities would speed up requirement for the long 75mm so maybe could be available before early 1945.
If Chi-To was able to be developed in a timely manner as described, then there would be no need for the stop-gap tank which.was the Type 3 Chi-Nu, so then no Chi-Nu development.
Still, the Soviets summoned up one heck of a force in mid 1945. And soviet tanks still had the bigger guns and heavier armor.
Edited by JasonJ, 08 July 2019 - 0743 AM.