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Meanwhile In The Baltic Republics And Poland...


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#2621 Roman Alymov

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Posted 16 February 2019 - 1348 PM

https://news.err.ee/...ilty-of-treason

 

EDF major of russian nationality, found guilty for spying for GRU. got 15 years, his father 6 years.

 

son was probably blackmailed into it , since they got less than 20.000 eur for over a decade´s work.

Probably you mean "ethnicity" here. Not clear if he really is - as his second name (Metsavas) sounds is different from his father's second name (sounds Russian, but may ne also Swedish Wåhlin) - he changed it to reflect his local roots. This article http://rus.delfi.ee/...iyu?id=83583993insist he is descendant of famous local aristiocrat Frederich fon Berg, also having revolution activiss  and NKVD/KGB officers in his family tree.


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#2622 bd1

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Posted 16 February 2019 - 1401 PM

last part was probably the GRU pressure point. 


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#2623 Roman Alymov

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Posted 16 February 2019 - 1409 PM

last part was probably the GRU pressure point. 

Well, if officer in Estonia Army  could be pressed by facts about his grandfather career speaks volumes about Estonia.


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#2624 bd1

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Posted 17 February 2019 - 1151 AM

 

last part was probably the GRU pressure point. 

Well, if officer in Estonia Army  could be pressed by facts about his grandfather career speaks volumes about Estonia.

 

....or about his own world-view (´can take the man out of russia, but can´t take the russia out of him´ etc.). just couple months ago then-minister of interior Andres Anvelt stepped down for health reasons, his grandfather was https://en.wikipedia...iki/Jaan_Anvelt. can´t have more suspicious background than that....


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#2625 Roman Alymov

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Posted 17 February 2019 - 1252 PM

....or about his own world-view (´can take the man out of russia, but can´t take the russia out of him´ etc.). just couple months ago then-minister of interior Andres Anvelt stepped down for health reasons, his grandfather was https://en.wikipedia...iki/Jaan_Anvelt. can´t have more suspicious background than that....

 

 

Thank you for excellent example:
Anvelt was born to a peasant family in Oorgu, Võisiku Parish (now in Kolga-Jaani Parish), Viljandi County, Governorate of Livonia. He studied to become a schoolteacher, beginning in Dorpat (now Tartu), and then in St. Petersburg, where he joined the Russian Social Democratic Labour Party's Bolshevik faction. He was employed as a schoolteacher from 1905 to 1907, concurrently being involved in revolutionary activity. From 1907 to 1912, Anvelt studied part-time as a student of jurisprudence at St. Petersburg University. Anvelt was arrested in 1937. Interrogated in custody, he died from the injuries inflicted by the interrogator Aleksandr Langfang on 11 December 1937.
Aleksandr Langfang - https://ru.wikipedia..., son of railway worker from Brest, Poland at that time.
So what we have is ethnic Estonian career Bolshevik beaten to death by ethnic Jewish Communist, but it is Russia's fault :)


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#2626 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 19 February 2019 - 1429 PM

This is REALLY good. Best ive yet seen on Russian OOB.

 

http://www.understan...tm_medium=email

 

Catherine Harris, Russia and Ukraine Research Analyst at ISW

Frederick W. Kagan, Critical Threats Project Director at the American Enterprise Institute

U.S. leaders and their European allies are unprepared for the ways in which Russia's President Vladimir Putin is poised to wage war in Ukraine and the Baltic. The Russian military is well positioned to launch a short-notice conventional war in Ukraine and a hybrid war in the Baltic States, the opposite of what Western leaders seem to expect in each theater. NATO leaders increasingly warn of the threat of a conventional invasion of the Baltic States (or even Western Europe). But Russian ground forces are not deployed or organized to initiate a short-notice conventional war in that region. They have, however, redeployed and reorganized since 2014 in a way that would support a rapid mechanized invasion of Ukraine from both north and east, while remaining well-prepared to conduct a hybrid warfare intervention in the Baltics similar to what they did in Ukraine after the Maidan Revolution. The United States and its partners should re-evaluate the most likely Russian courses of action and reconsider the mix of military and non-military tools required to defend NATO allies and Ukraine from potential Russian aggression.

READ THE FULL REPORT.


Edited by Stuart Galbraith, 19 February 2019 - 1430 PM.

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#2627 Chris Werb

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Posted 19 February 2019 - 1724 PM

Stuart, that report states that attempting to defend the Baltic States from a mechanised invasion by having equivalent mechanised forces in situ is essentially doomed and potentially very counter-productive. I'd go along with that, 


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#2628 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 20 February 2019 - 0302 AM

Placement is all. The Yanks have a Battalion set of Tanks and IFV's in Lithuania, which is the best place to keep them.

 

Ive wargamed it, and though I wouldnt claim the results are authoritative, I think although the Russians are throwing money at logistics till it comes out their ears, they have the wrong establishment for taking on the Baltic states. They would get much more out of Spetznaz Brigades than they would armoured formations. They just dont really have enough light infantry to make it a good prospect. Chunks of it though, thats a different prospect. Eastern Estonia, Latvia or even Vilnius, would be a complete doddle. The whole lot? I believe this beyond them.

 

OTOH, the same Armoured Formations if it came to it would make mincemeat out of Ukraine, and I think that is a good reason for their establishment. Its not to take us on, its to take on Ukraine or Belarus if it came to it.

 

The other conclusion is, if we lose the Baltic states, we dont get them back. So far better to hold onto them and defend them than figure out we can do seaborne assaults later.


Edited by Stuart Galbraith, 20 February 2019 - 0308 AM.

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#2629 Roman Alymov

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Posted 20 February 2019 - 0416 AM

 

 

Ive wargamed it, and though I wouldnt claim the results are authoritative, I think although the Russians are throwing money at logistics till it comes out their ears, they have the wrong establishment for taking on the Baltic states. T

Russia is investing heavily in logistics  - but not in logistics to capture Baltic states. The idea is to make them redundant and reallocate all Russian business to Russian ports. After that, this territories are more or less useless, and could play their folklore games as long as they wish, untill their population finally vote out with their feet

https://news.err.ee/...om-baltic-ports
Russia to divert petroleum transit away from Baltic ports
Ust'-Luga port rail connection improvements


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#2630 Roman Alymov

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Posted 20 February 2019 - 0655 AM

Estonian politician complaining about Russian-speaking conscripts in one of Estoinian Army infantry battalions (who are majority there) disobeying and "terrorizing" ethnic Estonian conscripts
https://ekspress.del...tukerTTUTdT1rwU
“I was informed that the Viru Infantry Battalion showed disobedience on the part of Russian-speaking soldiers and terror on national grounds against Estonian conscripts,” Helme told Defense Minister Jüri Lujka last week. He noted that most of the conscripts there are Russians and refuse to speak Estonian with both their colleagues and those of higher rank. ”When the anthem of Estonia sounds, they sing loudly Russian. They also terrorize Estonian guys who are in the minority there. There have been cases of direct violence. Recently, an extremely regrettable incident occurred when 16 Russian guys, in the truest sense of the word, beat an Estonian guy, so that he was in the hospital. ”

(doogle translated from Russian translation by http://rus.delfi.ee/...7F9B0ggmKY9ajLoso may be incorrect)


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#2631 Roman Alymov

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Posted 20 February 2019 - 0701 AM

https://news.postime...le-mobilization

Estonia to draw up backup plan for vehicle mobilization

 

Also, Estonian "Security Police" wars about the danger of "Cheap Russian-speaking workforce"  Interesting in Russian text it is "Workforce from Russia" while in Estonian it is "venekeelse" - Russian-speaking (as majority of this workforce is coming from, surprise, Ukraine - but probably people doing Russian translation can't bear the fact Russian citizens not rushing to Estonia job market)
In Est https://majandus24.p...5xYAROejPphimhY
In Rus https://rus.postimee...-sily-iz-rossii


Edited by Roman Alymov, 20 February 2019 - 0729 AM.

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#2632 bd1

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Posted 20 February 2019 - 1226 PM

Estonian politician complaining about Russian-speaking conscripts in one of Estoinian Army infantry battalions (who are majority there) disobeying and "terrorizing" ethnic Estonian conscripts
https://ekspress.del...tukerTTUTdT1rwU
“I was informed that the Viru Infantry Battalion showed disobedience on the part of Russian-speaking soldiers and terror on national grounds against Estonian conscripts,” Helme told Defense Minister Jüri Lujka last week. He noted that most of the conscripts there are Russians and refuse to speak Estonian with both their colleagues and those of higher rank. ”When the anthem of Estonia sounds, they sing loudly Russian. They also terrorize Estonian guys who are in the minority there. There have been cases of direct violence. Recently, an extremely regrettable incident occurred when 16 Russian guys, in the truest sense of the word, beat an Estonian guy, so that he was in the hospital. ”

(doogle translated from Russian translation by http://rus.delfi.ee/...7F9B0ggmKY9ajLoso may be incorrect)

 

elections are coming. and he is aiming at the same sector as zhirinovsky in russia - loudmouth without any obligations

 

´incident´ itself was that company orderly told 5 soldiers to do something, the 5 soldiers told him to go well,  nahui. he reported it to his superior, who put them to some cleaning detail. the insulted 5 then during sleep time ganged up on the orderly, he did not need medical attention . boys might face now from 2 weeks up to 1 year of prisonment if i read the article correctly. and yes, they were from separate nationalities, who´d guessed? 


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#2633 bd1

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Posted 20 February 2019 - 1245 PM

https://news.postime...le-mobilization

Estonia to draw up backup plan for vehicle mobilization

 

Also, Estonian "Security Police" wars about the danger of "Cheap Russian-speaking workforce"  Interesting in Russian text it is "Workforce from Russia" while in Estonian it is "venekeelse" - Russian-speaking (as majority of this workforce is coming from, surprise, Ukraine - but probably people doing Russian translation can't bear the fact Russian citizens not rushing to Estonia job market)
In Est https://majandus24.p...5xYAROejPphimhY
In Rus https://rus.postimee...-sily-iz-rossii

 

 

 

and we all hope it stays so..... :)

ukrainians don´t have to get visa, russians do.  but to prevent any sort of more massive immigration from russia or just workforce, it´s just common sense.

 

true immigration 2017

ukriane to estonia  736 persons , est.-to-ukr 124

belarus                   56                                     12

russia                      604                                   279

 

https://www.stat.ee/34275

 

yearly immigration quotas for estonia are 1315 persons, last year this number was fulfilled by march. quota exempt are EU citizens , students,  specialists , like IT, medicine etc.  


Edited by bd1, 20 February 2019 - 1246 PM.

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#2634 Roman Alymov

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Posted 20 February 2019 - 1302 PM

 

 

 

 

and we all hope it stays so..... :)

ukrainians don´t have to get visa, russians do.  but to prevent any sort of more massive immigration from russia or just workforce, it´s just common sense.

 

true immigration 2017

ukriane to estonia  736 persons , est.-to-ukr 124

belarus                   56                                     12

russia                      604                                   279

 

Well, note more people arriving from 36mln Ukraine than from 140 mln Russia  - quite indication of how bad things are there. Still it is interesting KaPo head is worried about "Ukrainians" the same way as if they came from Russia itself.


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#2635 bd1

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Posted 20 February 2019 - 1409 PM

because it´s easier to them to get visas? besides, ukrainian shipwelders  etc. have been working here for last 15 years or so iirc


Edited by bd1, 20 February 2019 - 1410 PM.

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#2636 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 22 February 2019 - 0615 AM

 


Published on Feb 21, 2019

 

Military reforms, starting in late 2008, and a well funded modernization program launched in 2011, have transformed the Russian armed forces. Far from the defunct Soviet mass mobilization army inherited in the 1990s, Moscow has restored the military as a capable instrument of national power. The driving factors in this transformation include Russian military thought on the modern character of war and lessons learned from recent combat operations in Syria and Ukraine. This lecture will explore the evolution of Russia's armed forces, offering a perspective on the transformation, and outlook on what the future holds for the Russian military.


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#2637 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 22 February 2019 - 1016 AM

Speaking to West Point cadets and faculty, Dr. Phillip Karber describes what he has learned about the Russian way of war from thirty trips he has made to Ukraine, including six months on the front lines of the war in the country's east.


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#2638 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 22 February 2019 - 1351 PM

https://www.france24...tacks-fake-news

 

The threat should not be underestimated. In northern Europe, Russian President Vladimir Putin's unpredictable behaviour is causing concern in former Soviet bloc countries such as Estonia, but also over in Sweden. Facing military intimidation, cyber attacks and disinformation campaigns, these countries accuse Russia of waging a "hybrid war" against the West. Since the conflict in Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea, they fear they are next in line. Our reporters went to find out more.


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#2639 Roman Alymov

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Posted 22 February 2019 - 1525 PM

 

Speaking to West Point cadets and faculty, Dr. Phillip Karber describes what he has learned about the Russian way of war from thirty trips he has made to Ukraine, including six months on the front lines of the war in the country's east.

I am surprised with this old man with his hunter tales  is allowed to speak as expert to the audience assumed to be one of the most competent in military affairs on our planet - but more surprised audience is taking it without a blink of the eye. Thermobaric munitions burning like napalm - really? Two battalions destroyed by single strike - really? Battalion left because commanders were killed - really? Then why battalion officers in this Ukrainian TV from 2014 are saying the decision to retreat was taken by battalion commander because "We are not cannon fodder" after losing communications with upper headquarters?

and in 2015 he was still under trail, saying the battalion was fooled by upper headquarters and sent to frontline on school busses etc (but was still in military service)

 

And so on....

This man (Dr. Phillip Karber) was already discussed here ( , http://www.tank-net.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=40941&page=2&hl=karber#entry1234360 etc.)


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#2640 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 23 February 2019 - 1256 PM

.


Edited by Stuart Galbraith, 23 February 2019 - 1346 PM.

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