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#3581 RETAC21

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Posted 06 October 2018 - 1348 PM

Im inclined to think the Nation State is done for. With increased globalization (and you are quite right, money has no country) the nation state is actually increasingly useless for anything except killing foreign enemies. Oh, and football, lets not forget that.

 

So Brexit, looked in that light, is a return to the past. The Irony is, I see what the EU is doing, trying to build a nation state apparently, is also somewhat doomed to failure. Its like inventing the worlds finest steam engine, just as the world is transitioning to Diesel.

 

We all look at the world through past experience, but the digitization of the past 30 years is pretty much tearing up the rulebook, just as surely as the Printing Press ripped up the ascendancy of the Catholic Church in the 16th Century. And just as then, or just as during the Industrial revolution, nobody has the faintest idea what is going to happen next. Its clear viewed like that, Brexit is a backward step. The problem is, I still cannot conceive of the EU as a forward one either.

 

Its a fascinating and terrifying time to be alive I think.

 

The nation state is not dying by any means, ask China. What has changed is the economic paradigm, something that has happened a number of time before. Most profit, some suffer. Now, on this Brexit thing, the issue is less one of leaving vs how to leave with minimum pain.

 

Instead of accepting compromises with the EU (that the EU would love to accept like freedom of movement for EU nationals) the current HMG has taken an erratic path that seems to achieve maximum damage and them corporations that create employment in the Southeast are left with no choice but to unseat, and all those jobs occupied by non-Ukians are not going to be there for Ukians.

 

The UK will remain a significant market, so you will see Jaguars around not made in Germany, but the platform will be smaller.


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#3582 bd1

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Posted 06 October 2018 - 1534 PM

 

 

 

if you had told me, pre 1989, that the Russians could send a high profile celebrity war hero to the UK to gas people (including innocent bystanders) and they could not only not try to hide the fact but openly take the piss about it thereafter - and that we would pretty much let them get away with it. I would have laughed.

 

you could of course pour some radioactive waste on kim philby´s grave as weighed, considered and equal response 


Edited by bd1, 06 October 2018 - 1535 PM.

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#3583 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 07 October 2018 - 0212 AM

 

Im inclined to think the Nation State is done for. With increased globalization (and you are quite right, money has no country) the nation state is actually increasingly useless for anything except killing foreign enemies. Oh, and football, lets not forget that.

 

So Brexit, looked in that light, is a return to the past. The Irony is, I see what the EU is doing, trying to build a nation state apparently, is also somewhat doomed to failure. Its like inventing the worlds finest steam engine, just as the world is transitioning to Diesel.

 

We all look at the world through past experience, but the digitization of the past 30 years is pretty much tearing up the rulebook, just as surely as the Printing Press ripped up the ascendancy of the Catholic Church in the 16th Century. And just as then, or just as during the Industrial revolution, nobody has the faintest idea what is going to happen next. Its clear viewed like that, Brexit is a backward step. The problem is, I still cannot conceive of the EU as a forward one either.

 

Its a fascinating and terrifying time to be alive I think.

 

The nation state is not dying by any means, ask China. What has changed is the economic paradigm, something that has happened a number of time before. Most profit, some suffer. Now, on this Brexit thing, the issue is less one of leaving vs how to leave with minimum pain.

 

Instead of accepting compromises with the EU (that the EU would love to accept like freedom of movement for EU nationals) the current HMG has taken an erratic path that seems to achieve maximum damage and them corporations that create employment in the Southeast are left with no choice but to unseat, and all those jobs occupied by non-Ukians are not going to be there for Ukians.

 

The UK will remain a significant market, so you will see Jaguars around not made in Germany, but the platform will be smaller.

 

 

Kissinger was writing as long ago as the early 1960's that with he advent of new technologies, the jet plane, telecommunications, the future of the nation state was in doubt. Look at the 60 years since then, even using the tool we are both using, its become further eroded. Which is the point of being British, Spanish, American, when we are all electronically in the same place communicating? It doesn't really have any relevance anymore, at least on this level. And if you think that this level is going to the future of the world economy, then you have to wonder what the point of nationality actually is.

 

China is less a nation state than a landmass. Its holding the globalization tendencies in place by being an authoritarian state, which is the traditional Chinese respond to foreign influences it doesn't like. Russia is doing precisely the same thing. it will at length fail, because its the very engagement with the rest of the world that drives economies. Russia is already stagnating as a result. The same may happen to China at length. They have already succeeded in alienating their best trading partner through their intractability.

 

The only way nation states will strive off the encroachment of globalization is by becoming similarly authoritarian. Frankly Id rather be an airstrip one in a McDonalds/CostaCoffee new world order, than one in a Orwellian Big Brother one, but I dont think ill get the chance either way.

 

Hope im wrong. Dont think so though.


Edited by Stuart Galbraith, 07 October 2018 - 0216 AM.

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#3584 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 07 October 2018 - 0228 AM

 

Im inclined to think the Nation State is done for. With increased globalization (and you are quite right, money has no country) the nation state is actually increasingly useless for anything except killing foreign enemies. Oh, and football, lets not forget that.

 

So Brexit, looked in that light, is a return to the past. The Irony is, I see what the EU is doing, trying to build a nation state apparently, is also somewhat doomed to failure. Its like inventing the worlds finest steam engine, just as the world is transitioning to Diesel.

 

We all look at the world through past experience, but the digitization of the past 30 years is pretty much tearing up the rulebook, just as surely as the Printing Press ripped up the ascendancy of the Catholic Church in the 16th Century. And just as then, or just as during the Industrial revolution, nobody has the faintest idea what is going to happen next. Its clear viewed like that, Brexit is a backward step. The problem is, I still cannot conceive of the EU as a forward one either.

 

Its a fascinating and terrifying time to be alive I think.

 

if you had told me, pre 1989, that the Russians could send a high profile celebrity war hero to the UK to gas people (including innocent bystanders) and they could not only not try to hide the fact but openly take the piss about it thereafter - and that we would pretty much let them get away with it. I would have laughed.

 

 

Because we are as much constrained by our allies, as assisted by them. If we were wholly independent, we could go and do what we traditionally did when Russia was a threat, sinking its navy, which is still, largely, within our capability. We seem to be beyond such things. And in fact, our ability to act is further constrained by the market. If we had a free hand, we would purge the City of London of Russian money. We dont, partly  because we are afraid of the financial effects, and the result of what it has on our global investors, whom also for the most part happen to be allies.

 

So Russia has an advantage of being able to do whatever the hell it wants, because it has no allies to constrain it. So in that respect, I do get some of what Americans see in President Trump. I get what they were aiming for. What they dont seem to see is quite how useless such backward steps now are. We are all so immeshed in each others economies, turning them off is in fact, impossible. Even the Americans have woken up to the fact they cant get a PC without using Chinese components. They cant build an airplane without using British ones come to that.

 

 

Anyway, im off topic. I guess the point im making is, the EU is the future if you think of it as the template for a new economic future without borders. Its the past, if you think that just removing internal borders and maintaining the external ones is not exactly globalist. Europe can justify itself as being the wave of the future by standing up to America or China to negotiate fair trade. It can be defined as the wave of the past by trying to be a nation state, which implies narrow, localist perspective.

 

Time will tell what tendency will be stronger. And of course, a lot depends on what corner the Americans turn.


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#3585 seahawk

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Posted 07 October 2018 - 0315 AM

The most amazing thing is how little the Brits seem to understand how the EU works.

 

When I hear Brits saying that so far no large company has relocated to the EU countries, they simply show now understanding of how things work. At the moment the UK is in the EU so relocating your business in the EU is something that is the company´s problem. 1 second after the UK is out, doing the same move opens access to EU aid for attracting business under the EFRE and other budgets and local authorities can grant incentives as they are now attracting business from a third country.

 

Go the Munich and the EXPO Real next week, nearly every EU country is already offering sweet deals and readying new development areas.


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#3586 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 07 October 2018 - 0409 AM

Against that, one can say Ive yet to hear a single European (or American for that matter) that really understands the UK. Im not sure why. We speak English, and we have a legendary ability for straight talking. Its like we were Chinese or something. :)


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#3587 seahawk

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Posted 07 October 2018 - 0427 AM

I was talking about simple technicalities. Like not understanding the 4 pillars or not understanding the difference between being a member and being a third country or that the UK is still a member at the moment.


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#3588 Mistral

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Posted 07 October 2018 - 0524 AM

I bought my last PC online from a company in the UK and had it shipped to Cyprus without paying import taxes, after Brexit unless they relocate to an EU country and build them there and pay taxes there, no way I am paying an import tax for something I can buy within the EU.

They only products not affected by this are only those not produced elsewhere in the EU.

And a free movement of goods impies free movement of people. I am sure auto makers will do that like the Japanese did, but it will mean loss of jobs in the UK.

The very basis of the EU is to create a common market, where everyone gets a bigger base to sell their goods, for an Italian car maker thats a bum deal, competing with the Germans on a level field, but for the whole its good.
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#3589 Ssnake

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Posted 07 October 2018 - 0653 AM

The very basis of the EU is to create a common market, where everyone gets a bigger base to sell their goods, for an Italian car maker thats a bum deal, competing with the Germans on a level field, but for the whole its good.

 

They can (and successfully do) concentrate on certain market segments (like Alfa Romeo does for that Italian sports car vibe, or FIAT concentrating on the small cars segment). Also, Italian cars have become infinitely better over the past 30 years (personally, I love the handling of the new "Cinquecento" (no wonder, with a mille treicento cm³ engine...)). That quality improvement, I'm pretty confident, is to no small part a result of the increased competition. As a European consumer the benefits of the common market are a very tangible experience.


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#3590 RETAC21

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Posted 07 October 2018 - 0659 AM

I bought my last PC online from a company in the UK and had it shipped to Cyprus without paying import taxes, after Brexit unless they relocate to an EU country and build them there and pay taxes there, no way I am paying an import tax for something I can buy within the EU.

They only products not affected by this are only those not produced elsewhere in the EU.

And a free movement of goods impies free movement of people. I am sure auto makers will do that like the Japanese did, but it will mean loss of jobs in the UK.

The very basis of the EU is to create a common market, where everyone gets a bigger base to sell their goods, for an Italian car maker thats a bum deal, competing with the Germans on a level field, but for the whole its good.

 

RAF bases in Cyprus are going to be in for a fun ride.


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#3591 Mistral

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Posted 07 October 2018 - 0728 AM

I bought my last PC online from a company in the UK and had it shipped to Cyprus without paying import taxes, after Brexit unless they relocate to an EU country and build them there and pay taxes there, no way I am paying an import tax for something I can buy within the EU.
They only products not affected by this are only those not produced elsewhere in the EU.
And a free movement of goods impies free movement of people. I am sure auto makers will do that like the Japanese did, but it will mean loss of jobs in the UK.
The very basis of the EU is to create a common market, where everyone gets a bigger base to sell their goods, for an Italian car maker thats a bum deal, competing with the Germans on a level field, but for the whole its good.

 
RAF bases in Cyprus are going to be in for a fun ride.

Its kind of weird, they are not an actual EU territory, when the UK joined they asked for an exception (surpise surprise). And when Cyprus joined it was agreed with the UK that they would not be considered in but residents would have all EU rights, I think all parties want to keep it that way, but if it really goes south with the EU its a pressure point.

Do not think it would go that way though. Now for the retired British expats, medical care is going to be an expensive experience.
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#3592 Mistral

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Posted 07 October 2018 - 0732 AM

The very basis of the EU is to create a common market, where everyone gets a bigger base to sell their goods, for an Italian car maker thats a bum deal, competing with the Germans on a level field, but for the whole its good.

 
They can (and successfully do) concentrate on certain market segments (like Alfa Romeo does for that Italian sports car vibe, or FIAT concentrating on the small cars segment). Also, Italian cars have become infinitely better over the past 30 years (personally, I love the handling of the new "Cinquecento" (no wonder, with a mille treicento cm³ engine...)). That quality improvement, I'm pretty confident, is to no small part a result of the increased competition. As a European consumer the benefits of the common market are a very tangible experience.

100% agreed, the road to efficiency might be messy but the end result is a net benefit.
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#3593 Adam Peter

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Posted 07 October 2018 - 1458 PM

Frankly Id rather be an airstrip one in a McDonalds/CostaCoffee new world order, than one in a Orwellian Big Brother one,


That was classy from a citizen of CCTVland, where they collected weeks of recordings to find the poisoner(s), and no one bothered to ask for extra recording material since then :)
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#3594 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 08 October 2018 - 0241 AM

 

Frankly Id rather be an airstrip one in a McDonalds/CostaCoffee new world order, than one in a Orwellian Big Brother one,


That was classy from a citizen of CCTVland, where they collected weeks of recordings to find the poisoner(s), and no one bothered to ask for extra recording material since then :)

 

 

Yes, why cant they respect peoples privacy. :)

 

Petrov-Boshirov.jpg


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#3595 BansheeOne

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Posted 14 October 2018 - 0157 AM

There appears to be some sursprising movement in the long-stalled Brexit negotiations. Jean-Claude Juncker recently hinted there may be results within a matter of weeks, and reports are a draft agreement may emerge even today after some weekend extra time. Of course any content will meet with discontent by some party or other, the Irish border being the most likely sticking point.

 

Brexit: David Davis calls for cabinet rebellion over PM's plan

 
6 hours ago

 

Cabinet ministers should "exert their collective authority" and rebel against Theresa May's proposed Brexit deal, ex-Brexit Secretary David Davis has said.

 

The PM has suggested a temporary customs arrangement for the whole UK to remain in the customs union while the Irish border issue is resolved.

Brexiteers suspect this could turn into a permanent situation, restricting the freedom to strike trade deals.

 

Writing in the Sunday Times, Mr Davis said the plan was unacceptable.

 

"This is one of the most fundamental decisions that government has taken in modern times," he added.

 

The issue of the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic Ireland is one of the last remaining obstacles to achieving a divorce deal with Brussels, with wrangling continuing over the nature of a "backstop" to keep the frontier open if a wider UK-EU trade arrangement cannot resolve it.

 

The EU's version, which would see just Northern Ireland remain aligned with Brussels' rules, has been called unacceptable by Mrs May and the DUP.

 

Mr Davis said the government's negotiating strategy had "fundamental flaws", arising from the "unwise decision in December to accept the EU's language on dealing with the Northern Ireland border".

 

Negotiations have continued this weekend between the UK and the EU ahead of a crucial meeting of EU leaders next week, which will determine whether a deal can be struck.

 

Deal or no deal
 

On Saturday evening, German newspaper Suddeutsche Zeitung reported a deal had already been reached between Mrs May and the EU, and would be announced on Monday.

 

But a No 10 source told the BBC the report was "100%, categorically untrue" and negotiations were ongoing.

 

The paper said it had seen a leaked memo from EU negotiators to EU ambassadors stating: "Deal made."

 

DUP leader Arlene Foster, meanwhile, warned the prime minister on Saturday not to accept a "dodgy" deal with the EU.

 

Ahead of a crunch Brussels summit on Wednesday, Mrs Foster said Mrs May should not back a plan that would "effectively cut Northern Ireland adrift".

 

According to a leaked email reported in the Observer, Mrs Foster is preparing for a no-deal Brexit.

 

More than three-quarters of NHS trusts, however, have made no preparations for the UK's departure from the EU whatsoever, according to Freedom of Information obtained by the People's Vote campaign.

 

The group also commissioned a YouGov poll of the UK's doctors and nurses, who - according to the poll - now back another referendum by a margin of three to one.

 

https://www.bbc.com/...litics-45853384


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#3596 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 14 October 2018 - 0220 AM

The problem is, it still has to get by the cabinet, then it has to get past the Conservative party, it has to be agreeable to the DUP (without which they have no majority), and then, if there are a few renegades, it has to get past the Labour party whom have vowed to vote down any deal, whatever it is, on principle. They subsequently denied it, but then they would. They are more interested in damaging the Tories than they are safeguarding the country it seems. The Liberals are a wild card, but they are more concerned with getting a second vote than either jumping on the leave hard or soft bandwagon. Its no use depending on them.

 

This morning we had this, Dangerous Davies finally going over the edge on 40cc's of raw Adrenochrome, calling on the Cabinet to Mutiny and face down the PM's defective Brexit plan. When they talk of 'Kill' I dont believe that just tabloid hysteria.

https://news.sky.com...-plans-11525622

 

The fly in the ointment, among all the hard Brexit, is they have a concept of what they dont want, but try and pin them down on what they DO want and they get all hang-jaw. There are no positive ideas, just rejection-ism.on principle.

 

 

OTOH, it may well be for the Conservatives, a hard Brexit might be preferable for a very good reason. May has assembled a 39 Billion bung to keep access to the EU market in the interim. A hard Brexit would leave that unpayable, but would be a hell of a pre election bung to give to the electorate. You might see it more likely a Conservative party will retain power with a hard Brexit, then you will a Soft one. And I think perhaps this is what is driving the manic carpet biters of the party's Right wing.

 

So just a personal view, we are still on track for a hard Brexit, whatever positives may come out of the EU at this point. Start digging the foxholes.


Edited by Stuart Galbraith, 14 October 2018 - 0220 AM.

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#3597 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 14 October 2018 - 0308 AM

Some good news though, there are some Labour MP's willing to split from Jezza the Great and vote with the Conservatives, for the good of the country. Is it going to be enough? Who can tell.

http://www.msn.com/e...jQ&ocid=UE13DHP


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#3598 DB

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Posted 14 October 2018 - 1428 PM

Only needs 10 or so.

 

Of course, there will be some loudmouthed idiot on the Tory back bench who will say something to derail it all, because they think it will further their career.


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#3599 BansheeOne

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Posted 14 October 2018 - 1613 PM

Well, it would have been a surprise if there had been a surprise.

 

October 14, 2018 / 1:55 PM / Updated an hour ago

 
Brexit talks stall before midweek EU summit
 
 
BRUSSELS/LONDON (Reuters) - The stubborn problem of Britain’s land border with Ireland thwarted a drive to clinch a Brexit deal before a European Union summit this week, as negotiators admitted defeat after marathon talks and pressed pause for the coming days.
 
EU negotiator Michel Barnier said after meeting British Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab that they could still not bridge a gap between his “backstop” demands that Northern Ireland stay in the EU’s economic zone if there is a risk that border checks with EU member Ireland could revive conflict, and London’s rejection of any checks on trade between the province and the British mainland.
 

Both sides want to end more than a year of talks by mid-November. This is to give parliaments in London and Brussels time to approve a deal before Britain otherwise crashes out of the EU next March, plunging businesses and millions of ordinary citizens into a chaotic and costly legal limbo.

 

However, British Prime Minister Theresa May faces intense opposition to some of the EU’s demands from members of her Conservative party and allies in Northern Ireland, some of whom threaten to reject any deal they do not like in parliament.

 

“Despite intense efforts, some key issues are still open, including the backstop for (Ireland/Northern Ireland) to avoid a hard border,” Barnier tweeted after his meeting in Brussels with Raab ended days of bargaining between Barnier’s deputy Sabine Weyand and May’s Brexit lieutenant Oliver Robbins.

 

A British government spokesman said progress had been made in some key areas. “However there remain a number of unresolved issues relating to the backstop. The UK is still committed to making progress at the October European Council,” he said.

 

But the result, EU officials and diplomats said, is that there are no plans for further talks before leaders of the other 27 EU member states meet over dinner in Brussels on Wednesday to hear Barnier brief them on the state of play.

 

Several said there was little chance the leaders would give Barnier new instructions. They noted this puts the onus on May, who will join the leaders on Thursday morning, to break the deadlock she faces among her own allies and supporters.

 

“It seems like May doesn’t have backing in her cabinet for the backstop,” said one senior EU diplomat who was briefed by Barnier.

 

Both sides had for a time been talking up progress but many Brussels diplomats and officials have questioned whether May could appear to come to terms quite so quickly. More days, or weeks, of drama could strengthen her hand as both sides talk up preparations for a possible “no-deal” Brexit.

 

Leaders had been due to decide on Wednesday whether enough progress had been made for them to agree to hold another summit, pencilled in for Nov. 17-18, at which both the treaty on an orderly British withdrawal and a vaguer document setting out future trade relations could be inked in.

 

It is unclear now whether the leaders will call for the November summit this week. Many, notably French President Emmanuel Macron, made clear at a summit with May last month that they would agree to meet only if she could show she had come sufficiently close to a deal to make it worthwhile.

 

EU sources said Barnier’s team have offered new wording on a text on the backstop, highlighting that it may never be activated or only for a limited time, and also that Britain as a whole could stay under EU rules for longer as it transitions out after March 2019. But so far that has not met British reservations.

 

[...]

 

https://www.reuters....s-idUSKCN1MO0FU


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#3600 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 15 October 2018 - 0200 AM

Itll be the Irish border that will kill it if anything. They could get it finalized 99 percent, and it will still fall over on that one issue.


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