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Venezuela Getting Hotter

Venezuela Maduro civil war

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#1 sunday

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Posted 23 January 2019 - 1903 PM

https://www.theguard...ion-news-latest

 

USA recognizes Guaidó as President, rioting in streets, the EU dallies...


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#2 Dark_Falcon

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Posted 23 January 2019 - 1940 PM

https://www.theguard...ion-news-latest

 

USA recognizes Guaidó as President, rioting in streets, the EU dallies...

 

The EU has now followed suit behind the US and Canada:

 

 

I hope that all of Europe will unite in support of democratic forces in #Venezuela. Unlike Maduro, the parliamentary assembly, including Juan Guaido have a democratic mandate from Venezuelan citizens.


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#3 Josh

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Posted 23 January 2019 - 2101 PM

Maduro is on my dead pool this year. Partially out of hope, partially out of profit.

But end of the day, you can't have ten percent of your population leave (likely a lot of the most capable) and your economy have a million percent inflation and expect the people to be happy. And by and large a good percentage of the country wasn't happy even back when money was good.


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#4 Simon Tan

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Posted 23 January 2019 - 2300 PM

I really look forward to the NATO expeditionary platoon at FOB Jupiter in Colombia.


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#5 NickM

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Posted 23 January 2019 - 2359 PM

I really look forward to the NATO expeditionary platoon at FOB Jupiter in Colombia.

 

Well we DO need a new influx of attractive war brides, no?


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#6 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 24 January 2019 - 0307 AM

Never mind, Putin will save him. :rolleyes:


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#7 Mr King

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Posted 24 January 2019 - 0349 AM

Speaking of Venezuela, I have noticed our resident Venezuelan has been MIA, I hope he is okay. 


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#8 sunday

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Posted 24 January 2019 - 0400 AM

Speaking of Venezuela, I have noticed our resident Venezuelan has been MIA, I hope he is okay. 

 

Indeed, indeed.


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#9 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 24 January 2019 - 0409 AM

Yes, im wishing him well too.


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#10 Simon Tan

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Posted 24 January 2019 - 0431 AM

It is strange that the warhawks have not already formed a Free Forces of Venezuela. Trained and supported by USian volunteers and private entities.
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#11 Adam Peter

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Posted 24 January 2019 - 0606 AM

Maybe a side effect of the government shutdown.


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#12 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 24 January 2019 - 0740 AM

It is strange that the warhawks have not already formed a Free Forces of Venezuela. Trained and supported by USian volunteers and private entities.

 

Kitsap County Militia?


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#13 glenn239

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Posted 24 January 2019 - 0837 AM

It is strange that the warhawks have not already formed a Free Forces of Venezuela. Trained and supported by USian volunteers and private entities.

 

You mean the Tweet brigade, or real fighting?  One sounds dangerous.


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#14 Josh

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Posted 24 January 2019 - 1142 AM

The US is refusing to remove its diplomats after being ordered to leave in 72 hours by Maduro. The US says that Maduro is no longer the legal president so he can be ignored.

 

While that seems to be an internally consistent argument given that they recognized Guaido as interim president, it is a bit of a gamble with US personnel in play.

I got a feeling that either Guaido won't be breathing in two weeks or else Maduro will be sipping Cuba Libres.


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#15 glenn239

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Posted 24 January 2019 - 1300 PM

If the US diplomats won't leave then Trump is hoping for a hostage style situation - probably less painful for the Venezuelans to ignore the US diplomats unless there is a bloodless opportunity to put them on a plane. 


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#16 BansheeOne

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Posted 24 January 2019 - 1352 PM

Unsurprising domestic political reactions in Germany. Government, Greens and Liberals are calling for free and fair elections. The Left Party is largely supporting Maduro, either out of good old international socialist solidarity, or even better older anti-Americanism - though the "enemy of my enemy" logic looks a little strained considering one of those decrying the "imperialist coup" is MP Sevim Dagdelen, also an always-vocal critic of Recep T. Erdogan who has of course come out for his "brother" Maduro. I've looked, but not found a peep from the AfD, probably due to different takes of their pro-Trump and pro-Putin camps.

 

I'm ildly wondering what Russia or China could do beyond words to prop up Maduro á la Assad, in a purely technical way; politically, there are obviously any number of reasons against it. But even disregarding that, Venezuela is not even Syria-close for either of them, and in the US backyard.


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#17 RETAC21

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Posted 24 January 2019 - 1402 PM

Nothing to be gained supporting Maduro, because he hangs on what the Army decides to do. He will be exiled or not, as the top heads of the armed services have been bought years ago, so this will be down to Captains and Majors. But if he's kicked out, there's not going to be a split country wishing he was back.


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#18 Burncycle360

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Posted 24 January 2019 - 1516 PM

Russia says

https://www.nbcnews....nezuela-n962091
 

Ryabkov did not mention Maduro by name, but made clear Moscow backed his government.

"Venezuela is friendly to us and is our strategic partner," he said. "We have supported them and will support them."

Kinda how the US felt about Ukraine...


 


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#19 Roman Alymov

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Posted 24 January 2019 - 1517 PM


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#20 Josh

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Posted 24 January 2019 - 1646 PM

Nothing to be gained supporting Maduro, because he hangs on what the Army decides to do. He will be exiled or not, as the top heads of the armed services have been bought years ago, so this will be down to Captains and Majors. But if he's kicked out, there's not going to be a split country wishing he was back.

 

Russian and China are heavily leveraged into the Vez economy. The Chinese practically own what's left of their oil production at this point. Allowing Maduro to fall to an alternative government opens the door to the country reneging on all payment since the Maduro government is being interpreted as illegitimate in the West (rather rightly so). So for purely economic reasons, China and Russia will be Maduro fans to the end. They probably also enjoy anything that annoys the west, but it isn't the driving force.

 

It does appear that Johny Big Balls Bolton is intentionally trying to bait Maduro into doing something stupid with the move to keep US diplomats in place. There's zero support for any US military involvement otherwise. Basically a Bengazi x10 move. If the US wanted to put pressure on the regime the easy way its to sanction its oil industry and watch it grind to a halt when it loses access to US refineries and US light sweep blending crude, though obviously that would piss off big oil which is a big no-no.


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