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United Stays Stays Neutral


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#1 DesertFox

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Posted 20 May 2015 - 0548 AM

Say that Germany decides to try to keep the United States neutral and succeeds.

There was I believe a "Second to None" program in the US and assume that occurs.

How does the war end, when does it end, and what does post war world look like? 


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#2 Adam_S

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Posted 20 May 2015 - 0612 AM

There's no particular reason why the 100 days couldn't happen without US troops in the line IMO. The issue might be that without the prospect of hordes of American troops on the horizon for 1919, the Germans try digging in somewhere in Belgium or even along the Rhine and manage to drag things out into 1919.

 

The original allied plans were for the war to carry on into 1919 so if it does then things like gas bombing of German cities begins to come into play. German civilians were also beginning to starve and that's not going to get any better.


Edited by Adam_S, 20 May 2015 - 0612 AM.

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#3 Richard Lindquist

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Posted 20 May 2015 - 0918 AM

I assume you mean WWI and Not WWII.

 

No US troops arrive, no Hundred Days.  The Germans are slightly more successful against the French in 1918, but eventually their attacks stall.  The starving German civilians pressure the Germans into offering a generous peace proposal based on status quo pro ante.  The exhausted French take giving up on Alsace Lorraine.  The Brits agree contingent on recognition of Belgian sovereignity.  The Brits and French then carve up the middle east. 


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#4 Markus Becker

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Posted 20 May 2015 - 0950 AM

Why would the Germans attack in the west when it is clear there are no Americans arriving you need to preempt? The defensive warfare worked very well before the last reserves were lost in the spring offensive.


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#5 Richard Lindquist

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Posted 20 May 2015 - 1009 AM

Why would the Germans attack in the west when it is clear there are no Americans arriving you need to preempt? The defensive warfare worked very well before the last reserves were lost in the spring offensive.

Peace in the east.  Where are you going to move the troops that are now excess there?  Attack Italy to help the Austrians?  Send them to the middle east to shore up the Turks?  Attack the allies in Salonica?  Demobilize them to save resources?  Keep them as a central reserve?  Maybe delay the Ludendorf offensive till the Brits have exhausted themselves?


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#6 Markus Becker

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Posted 20 May 2015 - 1335 PM

A bit of everything and especially the last thing! One enemy defeated, two allies stabilized, the Ludendorf offensive might no longer be necessary as time is not working for the Entente.


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#7 Richard Lindquist

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Posted 20 May 2015 - 2031 PM

A bit of everything and especially the last thing! One enemy defeated, two allies stabilized, the Ludendorf offensive might no longer be necessary as time is not working for the Entente.

I still don't think the Germans could dictate the peace.  It would be a peace of mutual exhaustion (and maybe a League of nations would be workable).  Everyone would then focus on the Bolshevik threat.


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#8 Andres Vera

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Posted 20 May 2015 - 2344 PM

I think all your points are well made. Personally I would go with demobilize, but not in the literal sense, maybe take some into agricultural batallions or gruppen, there was victory in the East and lots of room to go at farming, all of them into inactive reserve, with the veterans retaining rank and some unit structure for any contingency, and even, remobilization  then send in the rest, maybe just to finish the Hindenburg line and serve as strategic reserve. Interesting how any of your scenarios would play out.


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#9 Markus Becker

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Posted 21 May 2015 - 0719 AM

 

I still don't think the Germans could dictate the peace.  It would be a peace of mutual exhaustion (and maybe a League of nations would be workable).  Everyone would then focus on the Bolshevik threat.

 

 

That would be a very good way to end the war but the more I think about it, the more likely a German spring offensive gets. The victory over Russia won’t help anyone in Germany who wants to end the war by negotiating a compromise peace. The ‘peace by total victory’ faction is far more likely to get their will: an offensive in the west.

 

But on the plus side the British and French managed to contain such an offensive in @ without US help. So the spring offensive will fail and that’s likely to lead to a negotiated end of the war.


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#10 Richard Lindquist

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Posted 21 May 2015 - 0739 AM

 

 

I still don't think the Germans could dictate the peace.  It would be a peace of mutual exhaustion (and maybe a League of nations would be workable).  Everyone would then focus on the Bolshevik threat.

 

 

That would be a very good way to end the war but the more I think about it, the more likely a German spring offensive gets. The victory over Russia won’t help anyone in Germany who wants to end the war by negotiating a compromise peace. The ‘peace by total victory’ faction is far more likely to get their will: an offensive in the west.

 

But on the plus side the British and French managed to contain such an offensive in @ without US help. So the spring offensive will fail and that’s likely to lead to a negotiated end of the war.

 

I agree with that scenario.  Without massive US reinforcements on the way, the British and French would be more amenable to peace feelers. 


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