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#2581 Paul G.

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Posted 25 July 2019 - 1412 PM

No he isnt. He has 37 different reason's why it wasnt Russia. Ive only ever had one explanation from the start. Thats consistency.


He is consistently obtuse.
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#2582 urbanoid

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Posted 26 July 2019 - 0150 AM

I don't think he believes that he's 50% + 1 vote popular. Or that he'd be willing to entertain a coalition between his own party and someone else over whom he has no control. And I belive that he's right in that assessment. He needed a pretext to start another war with Chechnya, and was willing to murder hundreds of people in their sleep for it, just so that he could rise to become president. And once in place he dismantled the whole system so he could maintain his grip to power. He is obviously not convinced of his own qualities as a leader to maintain popular support. Which makes him a dictator; he may be a not entirely unpopular dictator but let's not kid ourselves that this man believes in open and fair elections. All he believes in is that his rigged elections and supporessed opposition can't look openly totalitarian because that would make it harder to maintain his position. But I have no doubt that he will use as much repression as necessary to stay in the driving seat until his death.

 

I believe he is at least that popular. Same with Lukashenka in Belarus - he would win the elections without rigging them, yet he apparently still does. Maybe winning with 'mere' 55-60% of the vote would be 'disgraceful' or whatever.


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#2583 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 26 July 2019 - 0158 AM

I believe its a reflection that Putin doesnt trust the Russian people to know whats good for them. There is also the other way of looking at it, its also demonstrative of how important the security service still is to Putin. If they didnt do that, all that would be left to them is smuggling and murdering dissidents in England.


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#2584 urbanoid

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Posted 26 July 2019 - 0206 AM

Their popularity or maybe level of support in elections, to be more precise, is quite high also because there's little alternative. In Belarus it's virtually none, in Russia I think that 2 of 3 biggest parties except One Russia are communists and Zhirinovsky's (neither) Liberal (nor) Democratic Party of Russia. If they ever came to power I believe we would actually miss (comparatively) sensible Putin.

 

'Liberals' are still being associated with the great looting and widespread poverty of 1990s. Sure, it happened in virtually all of post-communist states (maaaybe except Estonia), but on a much smaller scale than in Russia (and Ukraine). Putin presents himself as a 'stable' choice and he may very well be right.


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#2585 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 26 July 2019 - 0217 AM

Many of the other parties are satellites of United Russia, designed to be so unpopular everyone will vote for Putin. Ksenia Sobchak running for president can be seen in the same light.

 

Its easy for them to be disparaging of Democracy, when they dont understand it, and have no time for it.

 

Putin is stable till he isnt. And when he isnt is Georgia, Crimea, Donbas and Salisbury. At any other time im sure he is the most stable of stable guys. Ask Trump. :)


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#2586 Ssnake

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Posted 26 July 2019 - 0244 AM

Also, Putin suppressing anyone who might be dangerous to him in elections also guarantees that there appears nobody who could replace him, just like ole Mubarak in Egypt. But at some point, they all die, and because there is no open and clear successor/alternative, the forced pseudo-stability that they were so proud of resolves in a big earthquake.

I think this is one of the overlooked advantages of democracies. Because the change of power is normal, it usually happens without much ado. Strong men are extremely selfish, particularly if they pretend to do it "for the best of the country" because all the change that they prevent during their lifetime will build up and then happen all at once when they are finally out. The end of the Soviet Union is an excellent example. 90+ years of Bolshevik dictatorship, and 30 years later we're still struggling with the aftermath.

 

Seeking stability, at any price, for nothing but the sake of stability is the worst kind of foolishness.


Edited by Ssnake, 26 July 2019 - 0245 AM.

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#2587 urbanoid

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Posted 26 July 2019 - 0245 AM

Many of the other parties are satellites of United Russia, designed to be so unpopular everyone will vote for Putin. Ksenia Sobchak running for president can be seen in the same light.

 

Its easy for them to be disparaging of Democracy, when they dont understand it, and have no time for it.

 

Putin is stable till he isnt. And when he isnt is Georgia, Crimea, Donbas and Salisbury. At any other time im sure he is the most stable of stable guys. Ask Trump. :)

 

They aren't satellites, those parties are older than Putin's one and they haven't really changed, especially Loony Zhirik. Ksenia Sobchak is a meme, so...

 

As for disparaging democracy, you might want to persuade the Russian people that they shouldn't, good luck with that. They still associate 'democrats' with the kleptocrats of the 1990s, this is the closest experience with democracy in living memory of most Russians. And even though this situation was mostly of their own making, they blame the West. You have a living example of that on this very forum.

 

Also, please do abandon the naive view that deep down there's a liberal democrat in everyone. I enjoy democracy and most of my countrymen do, same with yours, but it's not like that everywhere. Also, you would be shocked how 'imperial' ordinary Russians are - if it was up to the majority Ukraine would be crushed and a lot more of their lands grabbed AND officially annexed to Russia. Putin doesn't face serious critcism for what he's done there, there's more of criticism for what he has NOT done (i.e kicked the Ukrainians in the balls even harder).


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#2588 Ssnake

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Posted 26 July 2019 - 0250 AM

Show me a person who, all other things being equal, wouldn't prefer more personal liberties.

 

Usually the argument that country X isn't ready for democracy is heard from dictators leading country X. I grant you that on an abstract level there remains a possibility that this is a correct analysis, but when it comes from these people, well, the overwhelming likelihood is that it's a selfish argument to justify what they're doing. Maybe they need it for themselves to sleep well, but don't expect me to buy it.


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#2589 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 26 July 2019 - 0323 AM

 

Many of the other parties are satellites of United Russia, designed to be so unpopular everyone will vote for Putin. Ksenia Sobchak running for president can be seen in the same light.

 

Its easy for them to be disparaging of Democracy, when they dont understand it, and have no time for it.

 

Putin is stable till he isnt. And when he isnt is Georgia, Crimea, Donbas and Salisbury. At any other time im sure he is the most stable of stable guys. Ask Trump. :)

 

They aren't satellites, those parties are older than Putin's one and they haven't really changed, especially Loony Zhirik. Ksenia Sobchak is a meme, so...

 

As for disparaging democracy, you might want to persuade the Russian people that they shouldn't, good luck with that. They still associate 'democrats' with the kleptocrats of the 1990s, this is the closest experience with democracy in living memory of most Russians. And even though this situation was mostly of their own making, they blame the West. You have a living example of that on this very forum.

 

Also, please do abandon the naive view that deep down there's a liberal democrat in everyone. I enjoy democracy and most of my countrymen do, same with yours, but it's not like that everywhere. Also, you would be shocked how 'imperial' ordinary Russians are - if it was up to the majority Ukraine would be crushed and a lot more of their lands grabbed AND officially annexed to Russia. Putin doesn't face serious critcism for what he's done there, there's more of criticism for what he has NOT done (i.e kicked the Ukrainians in the balls even harder).

 

 

 

Ive read accounts that United Russia was funneling money into other parties, not necessarily those, to try and split the vote of the opposition. Which has worked brilliantly And of course, by crazy Zhirk sounding off at Nuking the UK, you probably inspire at least some people to conclude Putin is stable by comparison. Well, I guess anyone is stable compared to Stalin come to that.

 

No I dont think everyone is a Liberal Democrat. It would be more accurate to think we either man the walls of Democracy, or we are going to end up much more like Russia. They aim to export this lunacy, and some of them have the money to do it. Every time we take their money, we countenance this behavior.

 

The recent events of a complete Lunatic becoming PM kind of underline my concern. His team already have a media management on Facebook spamming good news stories, in much the same way Putin uses Russian TV to send the same message. We are already subscribing to the mantra that nothing is true anymore. Hence the reasons why there are 37 different lies about what happened in Salisbury, its the same media management practice and we are completely unequipped to deal with it. Ive tried to underline this to our American posters, but they simply will not get it.

 

As for personal liberties, we are in the realms of something I read long ago about Rousseau's idea of  being forced to be free.  We either hold onto that idea, or Democracy is going to be subsumed by populism, indifference, and interference by other nations that have no time for things like liberal political discourse.

 

I think, personally, we must commit to either pushing back on the nations that are outside liberal democracies, or we will, inevitably, be overrun by their ideas. This is not a popular idea post Iraq, but its self evident considering the political and economic clout of China. Its what, 1.4 billion and climbing?


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#2590 urbanoid

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Posted 26 July 2019 - 0334 AM

 

 

Many of the other parties are satellites of United Russia, designed to be so unpopular everyone will vote for Putin. Ksenia Sobchak running for president can be seen in the same light.

 

Its easy for them to be disparaging of Democracy, when they dont understand it, and have no time for it.

 

Putin is stable till he isnt. And when he isnt is Georgia, Crimea, Donbas and Salisbury. At any other time im sure he is the most stable of stable guys. Ask Trump. :)

 

They aren't satellites, those parties are older than Putin's one and they haven't really changed, especially Loony Zhirik. Ksenia Sobchak is a meme, so...

 

As for disparaging democracy, you might want to persuade the Russian people that they shouldn't, good luck with that. They still associate 'democrats' with the kleptocrats of the 1990s, this is the closest experience with democracy in living memory of most Russians. And even though this situation was mostly of their own making, they blame the West. You have a living example of that on this very forum.

 

Also, please do abandon the naive view that deep down there's a liberal democrat in everyone. I enjoy democracy and most of my countrymen do, same with yours, but it's not like that everywhere. Also, you would be shocked how 'imperial' ordinary Russians are - if it was up to the majority Ukraine would be crushed and a lot more of their lands grabbed AND officially annexed to Russia. Putin doesn't face serious critcism for what he's done there, there's more of criticism for what he has NOT done (i.e kicked the Ukrainians in the balls even harder).

 

 

 

Ive read accounts that United Russia was funneling money into other parties, not necessarily those, to try and split the vote of the opposition. Which has worked brilliantly And of course, by crazy Zhirk sounding off at Nuking the UK, you probably inspire at least some people to conclude Putin is stable by comparison. Well, I guess anyone is stable compared to Stalin come to that.

 

No I dont think everyone is a Liberal Democrat. It would be more accurate to think we either man the walls of Democracy, or we are going to end up much more like Russia. They aim to export this lunacy, and some of them have the money to do it. Every time we take their money, we countenance this behavior.

 

The recent events of a complete Lunatic becoming PM kind of underline my concern. His team already have a media management on Facebook spamming good news stories, in much the same way Putin uses Russian TV to send the same message. We are already subscribing to the mantra that nothing is true anymore. Hence the reasons why there are 37 different lies about what happened in Salisbury, its the same media management practice and we are completely unequipped to deal with it. Ive tried to underline this to our American posters, but they simply will not get it.

 

As for personal liberties, we are in the realms of something I read long ago about Rousseau's idea of  being forced to be free.  We either hold onto that idea, or Democracy is going to be subsumed by populism, indifference, and interference by other nations that have no time for things like liberal political discourse.

 

I think, personally, we must commit to either pushing back on the nations that are outside liberal democracies, or we will, inevitably, be overrun by their ideas. This is not a popular idea post Iraq, but its self evident considering the political and economic clout of China. Its what, 1.4 billion and climbing?

 

 

Stu, Stalin has a 70% approval among Russians.

 

As for 'manning the walls of democracy' I absolutely approve, as for 'proselytizing' democracy - not so much.

 

Comparing BoJo to Putin is IMO hysterical, same with Trump-Putin comparisons.


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#2591 urbanoid

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Posted 26 July 2019 - 0342 AM

Show me a person who, all other things being equal, wouldn't prefer more personal liberties.

 

Usually the argument that country X isn't ready for democracy is heard from dictators leading country X. I grant you that on an abstract level there remains a possibility that this is a correct analysis, but when it comes from these people, well, the overwhelming likelihood is that it's a selfish argument to justify what they're doing. Maybe they need it for themselves to sleep well, but don't expect me to buy it.

 

When you equate democracy with anarchy, anarchy being the thing you fear most...

 

With 70% of Russians approving of Stalin and many claiming that his 'excesses' were justified, what does it tell you about commitment to personal liberty? Can you imagine your countrymen having similar approval rate of Stalin's German counterpart? Half of that? Quarter?


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#2592 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 26 July 2019 - 0346 AM

 

 

 

Many of the other parties are satellites of United Russia, designed to be so unpopular everyone will vote for Putin. Ksenia Sobchak running for president can be seen in the same light.

 

Its easy for them to be disparaging of Democracy, when they dont understand it, and have no time for it.

 

Putin is stable till he isnt. And when he isnt is Georgia, Crimea, Donbas and Salisbury. At any other time im sure he is the most stable of stable guys. Ask Trump. :)

 

They aren't satellites, those parties are older than Putin's one and they haven't really changed, especially Loony Zhirik. Ksenia Sobchak is a meme, so...

 

As for disparaging democracy, you might want to persuade the Russian people that they shouldn't, good luck with that. They still associate 'democrats' with the kleptocrats of the 1990s, this is the closest experience with democracy in living memory of most Russians. And even though this situation was mostly of their own making, they blame the West. You have a living example of that on this very forum.

 

Also, please do abandon the naive view that deep down there's a liberal democrat in everyone. I enjoy democracy and most of my countrymen do, same with yours, but it's not like that everywhere. Also, you would be shocked how 'imperial' ordinary Russians are - if it was up to the majority Ukraine would be crushed and a lot more of their lands grabbed AND officially annexed to Russia. Putin doesn't face serious critcism for what he's done there, there's more of criticism for what he has NOT done (i.e kicked the Ukrainians in the balls even harder).

 

 

 

Ive read accounts that United Russia was funneling money into other parties, not necessarily those, to try and split the vote of the opposition. Which has worked brilliantly And of course, by crazy Zhirk sounding off at Nuking the UK, you probably inspire at least some people to conclude Putin is stable by comparison. Well, I guess anyone is stable compared to Stalin come to that.

 

No I dont think everyone is a Liberal Democrat. It would be more accurate to think we either man the walls of Democracy, or we are going to end up much more like Russia. They aim to export this lunacy, and some of them have the money to do it. Every time we take their money, we countenance this behavior.

 

The recent events of a complete Lunatic becoming PM kind of underline my concern. His team already have a media management on Facebook spamming good news stories, in much the same way Putin uses Russian TV to send the same message. We are already subscribing to the mantra that nothing is true anymore. Hence the reasons why there are 37 different lies about what happened in Salisbury, its the same media management practice and we are completely unequipped to deal with it. Ive tried to underline this to our American posters, but they simply will not get it.

 

As for personal liberties, we are in the realms of something I read long ago about Rousseau's idea of  being forced to be free.  We either hold onto that idea, or Democracy is going to be subsumed by populism, indifference, and interference by other nations that have no time for things like liberal political discourse.

 

I think, personally, we must commit to either pushing back on the nations that are outside liberal democracies, or we will, inevitably, be overrun by their ideas. This is not a popular idea post Iraq, but its self evident considering the political and economic clout of China. Its what, 1.4 billion and climbing?

 

 

Stu, Stalin has a 70% approval among Russians.

 

As for 'manning the walls of democracy' I absolutely approve, as for 'proselytizing' democracy - not so much.

 

Comparing BoJo to Putin is IMO hysterical, same with Trump-Putin comparisons.

 

 

I know. And to think they actually criticize Cromwell. :D

 

I see the two as linked. I do not mean that we should go in a military expedition to make tyranny's into democracies. I think we have done more than enough of that. OTOH, during the cold war we support Democracies, and demonstrated to authoritarian states we were better places, more opportunistic places to live. And whats more, we spent a LOT of money demonstrating this. We dont do that anymore. We seem more keen on advertising our problems than what we get right. Which compared to Russia and China, is a lot. More to the point, we dont support fellow democracies. We treat them as competition. Look at the way the UK now looks at Europe, as if its a threat, rather than a collection of fellow democracies.

 

I dont say Bojo IS comparable to Putin. Im saying some of the media techniques that Putin uses are being used here in the west, and have for years.  Ok, so Putin does not use Twitter, and he doesnt use Facebook. But the State owns the TV, so they stage manage the message that goes across. This is not so very different from Cambridge Analytica harvesting data so you only get one message, tailored for you personally, over Facebook. Which is how the Trump dream team managed his campaign.

 

There is no truth anymore. All there is, is a media high ground from which you can dictate messages. It doesn't matter even that they are truthful or not, just that they are popular. Which is exactly how Putin operates. And actually, look at the Bojo Campaign. He promised tax cuts, an end to Austerity, more money for the police, the NHS, defence. Its a lie, but it doesnt matter that its a lie. Its such a good sell, and its sold so often, who cares exactly what the truth is?


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#2593 urbanoid

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Posted 26 July 2019 - 0435 AM

 

 

 

 

Many of the other parties are satellites of United Russia, designed to be so unpopular everyone will vote for Putin. Ksenia Sobchak running for president can be seen in the same light.

 

Its easy for them to be disparaging of Democracy, when they dont understand it, and have no time for it.

 

Putin is stable till he isnt. And when he isnt is Georgia, Crimea, Donbas and Salisbury. At any other time im sure he is the most stable of stable guys. Ask Trump. :)

 

They aren't satellites, those parties are older than Putin's one and they haven't really changed, especially Loony Zhirik. Ksenia Sobchak is a meme, so...

 

As for disparaging democracy, you might want to persuade the Russian people that they shouldn't, good luck with that. They still associate 'democrats' with the kleptocrats of the 1990s, this is the closest experience with democracy in living memory of most Russians. And even though this situation was mostly of their own making, they blame the West. You have a living example of that on this very forum.

 

Also, please do abandon the naive view that deep down there's a liberal democrat in everyone. I enjoy democracy and most of my countrymen do, same with yours, but it's not like that everywhere. Also, you would be shocked how 'imperial' ordinary Russians are - if it was up to the majority Ukraine would be crushed and a lot more of their lands grabbed AND officially annexed to Russia. Putin doesn't face serious critcism for what he's done there, there's more of criticism for what he has NOT done (i.e kicked the Ukrainians in the balls even harder).

 

 

 

Ive read accounts that United Russia was funneling money into other parties, not necessarily those, to try and split the vote of the opposition. Which has worked brilliantly And of course, by crazy Zhirk sounding off at Nuking the UK, you probably inspire at least some people to conclude Putin is stable by comparison. Well, I guess anyone is stable compared to Stalin come to that.

 

No I dont think everyone is a Liberal Democrat. It would be more accurate to think we either man the walls of Democracy, or we are going to end up much more like Russia. They aim to export this lunacy, and some of them have the money to do it. Every time we take their money, we countenance this behavior.

 

The recent events of a complete Lunatic becoming PM kind of underline my concern. His team already have a media management on Facebook spamming good news stories, in much the same way Putin uses Russian TV to send the same message. We are already subscribing to the mantra that nothing is true anymore. Hence the reasons why there are 37 different lies about what happened in Salisbury, its the same media management practice and we are completely unequipped to deal with it. Ive tried to underline this to our American posters, but they simply will not get it.

 

As for personal liberties, we are in the realms of something I read long ago about Rousseau's idea of  being forced to be free.  We either hold onto that idea, or Democracy is going to be subsumed by populism, indifference, and interference by other nations that have no time for things like liberal political discourse.

 

I think, personally, we must commit to either pushing back on the nations that are outside liberal democracies, or we will, inevitably, be overrun by their ideas. This is not a popular idea post Iraq, but its self evident considering the political and economic clout of China. Its what, 1.4 billion and climbing?

 

 

Stu, Stalin has a 70% approval among Russians.

 

As for 'manning the walls of democracy' I absolutely approve, as for 'proselytizing' democracy - not so much.

 

Comparing BoJo to Putin is IMO hysterical, same with Trump-Putin comparisons.

 

 

I know. And to think they actually criticize Cromwell. :D

 

I see the two as linked. I do not mean that we should go in a military expedition to make tyranny's into democracies. I think we have done more than enough of that. OTOH, during the cold war we support Democracies, and demonstrated to authoritarian states we were better places, more opportunistic places to live. And whats more, we spent a LOT of money demonstrating this. We dont do that anymore. We seem more keen on advertising our problems than what we get right. Which compared to Russia and China, is a lot. More to the point, we dont support fellow democracies. We treat them as competition. Look at the way the UK now looks at Europe, as if its a threat, rather than a collection of fellow democracies.

 

I dont say Bojo IS comparable to Putin. Im saying some of the media techniques that Putin uses are being used here in the west, and have for years.  Ok, so Putin does not use Twitter, and he doesnt use Facebook. But the State owns the TV, so they stage manage the message that goes across. This is not so very different from Cambridge Analytica harvesting data so you only get one message, tailored for you personally, over Facebook. Which is how the Trump dream team managed his campaign.

 

There is no truth anymore. All there is, is a media high ground from which you can dictate messages. It doesn't matter even that they are truthful or not, just that they are popular. Which is exactly how Putin operates. And actually, look at the Bojo Campaign. He promised tax cuts, an end to Austerity, more money for the police, the NHS, defence. Its a lie, but it doesnt matter that its a lie. Its such a good sell, and its sold so often, who cares exactly what the truth is?

 

Economically the Western countries have been competing and that was a good thing. It's the very basis of capitalism, without competition there's no innovation, without innovation there's stagnation and ultimately a downfall. It's much worse when we become 'sectarian' in security issues, there's a much greater risk that we will 'hang separately' because of that.

 

As for those games with creating narrative and popularity contest, at least in the West more than one side can play them. In Russia or China it's pretty much limited to the ruling party and Dear Leaders. Still, it's not how we can persuade the world of the virtues of democracy, two or three groups of lying assholes isn't that much better than one group. Sure, it's a good thing that we still have substantial personal freedoms, but the left does a lot to limit them with all their 'hate speech' bullshit. The basis of our 'popularity contests' are much too often about how much Free Shit™ is promised. Two latter things are something that will be treated with disdain in some cultures, especially in East Asia.


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#2594 Ssnake

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Posted 26 July 2019 - 0835 AM

 

Show me a person who, all other things being equal, wouldn't prefer more personal liberties.

 

Usually the argument that country X isn't ready for democracy is heard from dictators leading country X. I grant you that on an abstract level there remains a possibility that this is a correct analysis, but when it comes from these people, well, the overwhelming likelihood is that it's a selfish argument to justify what they're doing. Maybe they need it for themselves to sleep well, but don't expect me to buy it.

 

When you equate democracy with anarchy, anarchy being the thing you fear most...

 

We're talking about separate things. You focus on the (negative) reputation that the word "democracy" apparently has in Russia, and I won't dispute that.

But my point was about —all other things being equal— the individual's preference for (personal) liberties.


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#2595 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 15 August 2019 - 0243 AM

'A Very Expensive Poison', Luke Hardings book about the death of Alexander Litvinenko, becomes a stage play at the Old Vic.

https://www.londonth...e - none - none


Edited by Stuart Galbraith, 16 August 2019 - 0139 AM.

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