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The Current Canadian-Saudi Dust-Up


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#21 Josh

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Posted 19 December 2018 - 0939 AM

Saudi Arabia can't realistically re-align with Russia or China, because to do so would threaten most of their existing military infrastructure and their ultimate guarantee of defense against Iran. Plus lets face it; Russian customer service likely wouldn't work for the KSA. Anecdotally I've heard things that would be crew level maintenance on a tank is handled by US contractors. That would have to go double for their airforce, which would likely be a costly museum in a matter of months without US support. Exactly how many planes can Russia and China supply them with how quickly, with what level of service and parts, and how much are they willing to pay for them at this juncture? And if something goes wrong with Iran, which side would Russia or China help? The US can put pressure on the KSA, and I think the Fresh Prince Of Riyadh has amply demonstrated he is a destabilizing force not consistent with US goals. I don't see a down side to putting pressure on the Saudies to find another choice; indeed most of the royal family would probably have his head put on a stick at this point if they can manage to get away with it.


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#22 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 19 December 2018 - 0944 AM

I completely agree.


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#23 glenn239

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Posted 19 December 2018 - 1059 AM

Saudi Arabia can't realistically re-align with Russia or China, because to do so would threaten most of their existing military infrastructure and their ultimate guarantee of defense against Iran. Plus lets face it; Russian customer service likely wouldn't work for the KSA. Anecdotally I've heard things that would be crew level maintenance on a tank is handled by US contractors. That would have to go double for their airforce, which would likely be a costly museum in a matter of months without US support. Exactly how many planes can Russia and China supply them with how quickly, with what level of service and parts, and how much are they willing to pay for them at this juncture? And if something goes wrong with Iran, which side would Russia or China help? The US can put pressure on the KSA, and I think the Fresh Prince Of Riyadh has amply demonstrated he is a destabilizing force not consistent with US goals. I don't see a down side to putting pressure on the Saudies to find another choice; indeed most of the royal family would probably have his head put on a stick at this point if they can manage to get away with it.

 

 

The Saudi-Iranian tensions are not existential for either side.  So this is a point of leverage only insofar as the Iranians and Saudis permit it to be.   Also, don't forget we need the Arab infrastructure to fight Arab extremists more than the Saudis need us to fight Iran, and it goes without saying that if the Saudis and Iranians reach an accord the American strategy in the ME - already a bit of a joke - completely collapses.

 

In terms of Russian or Chinese mediation in the Iranian dispute, the precedent in Syria suggests that both countries are strongly inclined to play the role of fair broker in reaching an accord.  The West, meanwhile wants as much Saudi-Iranian conflict as possible...but will withhold military equipment at the same time?   Not sure that's going to work.


Edited by glenn239, 19 December 2018 - 1101 AM.

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#24 Nobu

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Posted 19 December 2018 - 1615 PM

Japan's diplomatic recognition of the People's Republic of China occurred in 1972, on the heels of Nixon's visit and at a time when China and Chinese were violating the rights of their own people to a far greater extent than today in various ways, including by killing them by the millions according to the Holocaust Memorial Museum.

 

The reasons for both events had less to do with the question of non-existent Japanese and American moral angst over relatively non-existent trade volume levels with Beijing, and much more to do with what Japan and Washington wanted relative to what Beijing wanted at the time. Nations having their own interests indeed.

 

Give Erdogan and the Turks their due. They have mastered this particular situation and may end up leveraging Washington into acting against its own interests.

 

Interestingly, Washington may have done the same to Canada relative to the female executive's arrest by using it to kick the legs out from underneath a possible Canada/China trade accommodation.


Edited by Nobu, 19 December 2018 - 1630 PM.

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#25 glenn239

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Posted 19 December 2018 - 1658 PM

Speaking of the Chinese executive, a third Canadian has been arrested in China today.  It's going to get worse....


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#26 Simon Tan

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Posted 19 December 2018 - 1937 PM

The US will fight to the last Canadian.
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#27 Dark_Falcon

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Posted 19 December 2018 - 2047 PM

Speaking of the Chinese executive, a third Canadian has been arrested in China today.  It's going to get worse....

 

Question for the group: What would happen if Canada advised its citizens to leave China till this matter is resolved.


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#28 glenn239

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Posted 20 December 2018 - 0813 AM

The US will fight to the last Canadian.

 

There's a lot of principled people these days whose first principle seems to be that it will be someone else that fights while they don't.  


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#29 glenn239

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Posted 20 December 2018 - 0815 AM

 

 

Question for the group: What would happen if Canada advised its citizens to leave China till this matter is resolved.

 

 

I've gone to China on business in the past and may do so again.  For me, if this were to occur, I'd just put off the trip.  What appears to be happening is that the Chinese are starting to tighten up their own law enforcement in places where they'd previously let things slide a bit - this third one is detained on a problem with her working visa or something like that.


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#30 Colin

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Posted 20 December 2018 - 1221 PM

My Province cancelled a planned visit by government officials as part of a trade mission. If your a tourist with no social media background critical of China, your likley to be let alone. Otherwise I would think twice. I hope we see a downturn in passengers leaving on flights passing through Shanghai or Hong Kong with an uptick in other Asian airlines. 


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#31 Josh

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Posted 20 December 2018 - 1243 PM

I doubt your average person will know or care about such things. I'm sure CEOs will probably back out in large numbers, both form the states and Canada. At least until it is resolved.
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#32 Nobu

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Posted 20 December 2018 - 1314 PM

What would happen if Canada advised its citizens to leave China till this matter is resolved.

 

A course of action with more upside would be if Canada advised its businesses and financial services providers to leave China until this matter is resolved. The resulting market vacuum could easily be filled by Japanese providers in various ways.


Edited by Nobu, 20 December 2018 - 1322 PM.

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#33 Simon Tan

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Posted 21 December 2018 - 0809 AM

Canadia is best money laundry.
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#34 Colin

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Posted 21 December 2018 - 1730 PM

It was, but current Provincial government is very interested in what has happened and is encouraging investigations, the resulting market price drop when that money flees, will be good for those that voted them in.


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