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Hypothetical War : Contest For The Spratleys


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#1221 JasonJ

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Posted 10 June 2017 - 1334 PM

What are Taiwan's targets in retaliation should the PRC attack?


I don't think they have cruise missiles or BMs for retaliation strikes.
 
They do have cruise missiles. Some ~600 km surface to surface one and reportedly also A2G one with ~200 km range.

The 200km one doesn't look like it can hit much. 600km range is not bad. Seems to be older and less accurate so it may be unsuitable for hitting vehicles or aircraft. So targets would have to be buildings and such.

#1222 urbanoid

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Posted 10 June 2017 - 1342 PM

Or port facilities, including PLAN's. The 200km one is apparently JASSMish, launched from fighter aircraft.



#1223 JasonJ

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Posted 24 June 2017 - 0825 AM

Military officers from all 10 ASEAN countries boarded JS Izumo for 5 days in the SCS but outside the 9 dash line area.

Japan's largest warship steamed into the South China Sea this week in defiance of Chinese assertiveness, with Asian military guests on board to witness helicopters looping over the tropical waters and gunners blasting target buoys.

China claims most of the energy-rich sea through which about$5 trillion in ship-borne trade passes every year, much of it to and from Japanese ports. Neighbors Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam also have claims.

Japan worries that China is cementing its control in the South China Sea with manmade island bases, arms sales and development aid.

"We are not just here to show our presence, but from the outside that is what it looks like," Rear Admiral Yoshihiro Goga, the commander of the mission, said aboard the Izumo-class helicopter carrier.

Military officers from the ten-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) boarded the 248-meter carrier in Singapore on Monday. It returned on Friday after demonstrating naval skills and kit Tokyo hopes will help it bolster alliances in the region.

The Izumo turned back to Singapore before crossing a boundary known as the nine-dash-line into what China claims are its waters.

The high-profile cruise was part of a hitherto unseen coordinated push by Japan's Self Defense Forces and defense bureaucrats to bolster ties with countries ringing the contested waters. It also marked a concerted push into military diplomacy by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

Japan last week held a military technology seminar near Tokyo for representatives from Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia and Singapore and this week invited ASEAN officers to a disaster relief drill in Tokyo.

Abe's government believes Japan may be better placed to prise Southeast Asian nations away from Chinese influence than its U.S. allies with a gentler approach that emphasizes a common Asian heritage, two sources with knowledge of the diplomatic strategy told Reuters earlier.

While the U.S. has confronted China directly by sending warships close to China's island bases in the South China Sea, Japan so far has shied away from similar provocations.

As the Izumo neared the nine-dash line, the crew were on lookout for Chinese aircraft or ships sent to shadow the flag ship. Apart from brief radar contact with an unidentified aircraft announced by the ship's public address system the carrier, however, sailed on unmolested.

https://japantoday.c...fiance-of-china

#1224 JasonJ

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Posted 25 June 2017 - 1311 PM

Philippines and Vietnam navies playing sports together again.

 

MANILA -- Philippine and Vietnamese navies have been playing soccer, volleyball and tug-of-war games together on a South China Sea island, the latest get-together by two countries concerned by Chinese assertiveness in the disputed waters.

The two sides played in mixed teams on Thursday on Southwest Cay in the Spratly archipelago, the Philippine navy said, the third event of its kind since 2014 on an island held four decades ago by the Philippines, but now under Vietnamese control.

The games are among a series of exchanges between the two countries, quietly demonstrating their unity in the face of Beijing's expanding presence and signs of militarization of man-made islands in the Spratly chain.

Ariesh Climacosa of the Philippine Naval Forces West said the games showed how the two sides could get along and would trust and understand each other better.

Relations strengthened under the previous Philippine administration, leading to the signing of a strategic partnership in 2015, at a time when both countries were locked in fierce disputes with China and enjoying warm ties with the United States.

But ties have since become more uncertain, due largely to Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte's decision to charm rather than confront Beijing, while also turning more hostile towards Washington.

http://news.abs-cbn....hina-sea-island

 

Where they are playing.

Southwest%2BCay.jpg



#1225 JasonJ

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Posted 02 July 2017 - 1255 PM

US destroyer went within 12nm of Triton Island.

 

Spoiler

http://www.foxnews.c...icials-say.html



#1226 JasonJ

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 2228 PM

USS Chafee sailed within 16nm of one of the Paracel Islands. China responded by sending a frigate, 2 jets, and a helicopter.

Spoiler

http://www.latimes.c...1011-story.html

 

Spoiler

http://www.globaltim...t/1069876.shtml



#1227 Nobu

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Posted 11 October 2017 - 2331 PM

The USN challenged what the DOD calls "excessive maritime claims" of over 20 countries last year, including North Vietnam, Taiwan/Nationalist China, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, South Korea, and, inexplicably, Japan.

 

Actually ratifying UNCLOS might be a more productive use of resources by Washington at this point.



#1228 Josh

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Posted 12 October 2017 - 0913 AM

While I agree that the US should ratify UNCLOS, it isn't happening under the three kids stuffed into a cheap suit we call a president. In any case, it wouldn't change anything. The US follows UNCLOS the same way it follows other conventions it never approved (cluster munitions, parts of Geneva, etc) and China doesn't. China only points out when other people don't follow UNCLOS.

#1229 Nobu

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Posted 12 October 2017 - 0948 AM

This sounds similar in various ways to Taiwan/Nationalist China pointing out Japan's "excessive" maritime claims regarding Okinotorishima while rejecting last year's PCA UNCLOS ruling on Taiwan/Nationalist China's EEZ claim based on Itu Aba.

 

I personally would like to know the precise location of the Japanese excessive maritime claim the USN challenged last year, but the radio silence regarding it is thunderous.



#1230 JasonJ

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Posted 12 October 2017 - 1000 AM

This sounds similar in various ways to Taiwan/Nationalist China pointing out Japan's "excessive" maritime claims regarding Okinotorishima while rejecting last year's PCA UNCLOS ruling on Taiwan/Nationalist China's EEZ claim based on Itu Aba.

 

I personally would like to know the precise location of the Japanese excessive maritime claim the USN challenged last year, but the radio silence regarding it is thunderous.

 

In this report for the time period of October 2015 to September 2016, just "excessive straight baselines" is giving for Japan. According to this study, the "excessive straight baselines" are areas in which basically a long straight territorial line was drawn between two points where there are geographical features like wide mouth open capes and such that should have the territorial water border curve more so along the land rather than being a straight line. So, at least in that time frame, it doesn't look like the US did anything to, say, the EEZ or territorial water of Okinotorishima since it doesn't fit the definition of "excessive straight baselines".



#1231 Josh

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Posted 12 October 2017 - 1222 PM

Isn't the US challenging Japanese territorial waters a silly point for anyone to bring up since the USN bases the 7th there?

#1232 JasonJ

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Posted 12 October 2017 - 1256 PM

Isn't the US challenging Japanese territorial waters a silly point for anyone to bring up since the USN bases the 7th there?

 

Could depend on how that's taken, but I think there's no point in bringing up.



#1233 Nobu

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Posted 12 October 2017 - 1354 PM

Seeing Japan's name on the list of predominantly thirdworlder/BRICS ilk targeted by the US for excessive maritime claims last year was surprising.



#1234 DB

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Posted 15 October 2017 - 1242 PM

Isn't the US challenging Japanese territorial waters a silly point for anyone to bring up since the USN bases the 7th there?

It's likely to be a point of order so that they can not be accused of ignoring one "violation" whilst pressing another country on a similar point.

 

I fail to see how not ratifying UNCLOS has anything to do with the "three kids stuffed into a cheap suit" given that the US has had the opportunity to ratify it at any time since 1982. But, you know, I know nothing aboutthe US so probably shouldn't comment.



#1235 Colin

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Posted 15 October 2017 - 1728 PM

The US and Canada disagree on several points as well 



#1236 Josh

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Posted 16 October 2017 - 0820 AM

Isn't the US challenging Japanese territorial waters a silly point for anyone to bring up since the USN bases the 7th there?

It's likely to be a point of order so that they can not be accused of ignoring one "violation" whilst pressing another country on a similar point.
 
I fail to see how not ratifying UNCLOS has anything to do with the "three kids stuffed into a cheap suit" given that the US has had the opportunity to ratify it at any time since 1982. But, you know, I know nothing aboutthe US so probably shouldn't comment.


No, I can't blame Trump at all for not retifying UNCLOS, but I can say that it will continue to not happen on his watch. There's no way he'd allow it. But the US in general has always been ass backwards on that issue - it basically accepts and practices the agreement without formally declaring it accepts the agreement.

#1237 Panzermann

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Posted 16 October 2017 - 1202 PM

 

 

Isn't the US challenging Japanese territorial waters a silly point for anyone to bring up since the USN bases the 7th there?

It's likely to be a point of order so that they can not be accused of ignoring one "violation" whilst pressing another country on a similar point.
 
I fail to see how not ratifying UNCLOS has anything to do with the "three kids stuffed into a cheap suit" given that the US has had the opportunity to ratify it at any time since 1982. But, you know, I know nothing aboutthe US so probably shouldn't comment.

 


No, I can't blame Trump at all for not retifying UNCLOS, but I can say that it will continue to not happen on his watch. There's no way he'd allow it. But the US in general has always been ass backwards on that issue - it basically accepts and practices the agreement without formally declaring it accepts the agreement.

 

 

Just like many other treaties like LaHague and Geneva are treated by the U.S.A.



#1238 Nobu

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Posted 17 October 2017 - 0856 AM

Multiple USN FONOP challenges of what Washington calls "excessive" archipelagic island claims of the Philippines in 2016 essentially undermine the ongoing case against China and Chinese.

 

Sailing around in circles in the Pacific and Indian oceans, pissing in the cornflakes of friend and foe alike in the name of upholding a UNCLOS convention the United States does not consider itself legally bound to. And I thought a strategy pushing Taipei and Beijing into an alliance of interests was ill conceived.



#1239 X-Files

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Posted 20 October 2017 - 0334 AM

 

China’s 30-year deadline to rule the world

CHINA’S leader has laid out his ambitious plans for a superpower in a three-hour speech with huge implications for Australia.

http://www.news.com....3d5ca89a2479e94

 

 

 

CHINA’S BIG PLAN

Senior analyst in defence strategy and capability at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, Dr Malcolm Davis, told news.com.au Mr Xi’s message was loud and clear.

Dr Davis said Beijing wanted to replace the US as the world’s dominant superpower, an idea many people have dismissed as absurd as recently as a few years ago.

“China just doesn’t want to be a just regional superpower, it wants to be the superpower,” he said.

Dr Davis said Beijing wanted to challenge US supremacy and reshape the region according to China’s interests and economic development.

However, he acknowledged China faced several domestic challenges which stood in the way of its long-term goal, including suppression of democracy and freedom of speech.

Dr Davis also said Beijing faced a huge demographic problem with an increasing ageing population and declining birthrate.

This, in turn, would further impact on economic growth.

 

 

“Like all authoritarian governments, Beijing sees anything which challenges it as a problem and will crack down hard on that,” Dr Davis said.

“After the Tiananmen Square massacre, Beijing said to its people: ‘If you forgo democracy, we will give you prosperity.’”

He questioned what would happen once China’s prosperity ran out and the disparity between rural and city and the elite and the common man was more obvious.
Dr Davis pointed out Beijing was a major maritime power which the US was aware of and one which was determined to assert its dominance, particularly in the South China Sea.

He said China was also trying to make other countries sign up to its One Belt, One Road infrastructure investment project.

By doing this Beijing was extending its influence over other countries which would align themselves more with China than the US.

Dr Davis said China’s plans had a direct impact on Australia.

 

 

“Australia was just a backwater when Cold War was taking place, now we are right in the frontline” he said.

“The South China Sea is not far away and China is extending its reach into the Indian Ocean as well.

“We are an ally of the US and a vital partner in any potential conflict. We are front and centre of anything to do with China.”

 






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