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China's Peaceful Rise

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#1 chino

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Posted 01 August 2014 - 0726 AM

I'm starting this thread in the hope that some of the discussions on China can migrate from the "Hypothetical War: Contest for the Spratleys" to this thread.

 

My respects to that thread as it is one of the longest lasting.

 

The reasons for starting a new thread firstly because such a thread fits better in the "Military Current Events" section more than "General Naval & Air".

 

Secondly, because when it comes to China, it is no longer just the Spratleys we would be talking about. 3 years on from X-files' "Hypothetical War" thread, China is now going head-to-head with Japan in the East China Sea. Who next? What next?

 

Even as it appears to me that China's spectacular economic boom is on the wane, more and more it is becoming the nation that no one can ignore, and not always in a positive way.

 

These days, you can't watch a Hollywood blockbuster without the plot didn't somehow wending its way to China, or at least involve some Chinese characters (and most importantly) who aren't necessarily the bad guys anymore! Hmmm...


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#2 chino

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Posted 01 August 2014 - 0737 AM

I just returned from a trip to Singapore and the flights were badly delayed both ways. There are sporadic mention here and there of "military exercises" and then sometimes it was blamed on "bad weather".

 

Newspapers said that hundreds of flights have been affected with many canceled outright in and out of Shanghai.

 

I read in a Singapore newspaper that the scale of the exercise will be a massive one. IIRC that involves simultaneous maneuvers on both the SCS and East China Sea regions. I can't find the article online. If my memory serves me correctly, it means China is testing its ability to conduct combat simultaneously on both fronts.


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#3 JasonJ

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Posted 01 August 2014 - 0842 AM

Good idea to have a core China thread.

 

The news article below confirms the flight delays due to military operations and bad weather.

 

http://www.bloomberg...china-seas.html

 

The annual joint Naval exercise program between India and the US occurred in late July included Japan. It may not necessarily be meant as a response to China. Japan has joined in the exercise in 2007 and 2009 as well.

 

http://indiannavy.ni...exercise-starts


Edited by JasonJ, 01 August 2014 - 0843 AM.

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#4 Corinthian

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Posted 02 August 2014 - 2151 PM

These days, you can't watch a Hollywood blockbuster without the plot didn't somehow wending its way to China, or at least involve some Chinese characters (and most importantly) who aren't necessarily the bad guys anymore! Hmmm...


Because Hollywood wants to tap the large Chinese market hence the increasing number of movies with China being a location or having Chinese stars in it (Li Bingbing, Transformers, and Iron Man 3 being the worst examples).
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#5 chino

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Posted 03 August 2014 - 0929 AM

 

These days, you can't watch a Hollywood blockbuster without the plot didn't somehow wending its way to China, or at least involve some Chinese characters (and most importantly) who aren't necessarily the bad guys anymore! Hmmm...


Because Hollywood wants to tap the large Chinese market hence the increasing number of movies with China being a location or having Chinese stars in it (Li Bingbing, Transformers, and Iron Man 3 being the worst examples).

 

 I'm normally awake only at the beginning and end of these Hollywood blockbusters because the middle is just a waste of time.

 

But I have to say Transformers: Age of Extinction kept me awake throughout. The story was OK-ish but most importantly, a great part of it was shot in the urban jungle of Hong Kong, which I lived in for nearly six years. In the article it is written that there were "attempts to extort money" from the director in HK.

 

http://www.hollywood...-costs-a-722158

 

When I lived in HK working in the advertising industry, it is a well-known fact that when you have to shoot films outdoors in HK, the local triad gang will extort money from you. If you don't pay, they would not use violence as that will attract police attention. Instead, they would do something that's perfectly legal like walking in front of your camera each time you want to shoot.

 

Not only was the ticket sale of Transformers very good, there was also a ridiculous amount of very blatant and clumsy product placement for everything you can think of including "Hubei Zhou Heiya Food" which makes duck products for human consumption (and not "Duck-Food" as the article implies).

 

Imagine the script writer having to make countless alterations to bring in the Chinese element, incorporating a Chinese star, adding ridiculous number of occasions where the star drinks a Chinese packaged beverage etc...


Edited by chino, 03 August 2014 - 0930 AM.

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#6 baboon6

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Posted 04 August 2014 - 0424 AM

Which is just another reason why most movies today are such balls...


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#7 swerve

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Posted 04 August 2014 - 0531 AM

Heard summat on the radio. Western military historian talking to senior Chinese officers about WW1 told 'em biggest lesson to be learned from it was that if you're winning the peace, you can't gain by war: Germany was well on the way to economic domination of Europe in 1914, & but for the war, it's hard to see anything happening to stop its rise. He drew the obvious parallel with China, & asked what there was in the South China Sea, etc. that was worth the cost of a war.

 

He got no answer to the question, & said the senior general did not seem convinced by his argument.


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#8 swerve

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Posted 04 August 2014 - 0616 AM

Oh, he's certainly right. WW1 bankrupted Germany, killed millions of its workers, wrecked some of its best pre-war customers, & lost it markets elsewhere, so hampering its recovery. It led on to WW2, which did the same, with the bonuses of massive physical damage & a big chunk of the country being hacked off & forced into the dead end of a centrally planned economy.

 

Germany was poorer per head in 1950 than 1913. It took 10 years after WW1 to get back to where it was before the war, & almost 10 years after WW2 to get back to 1938 levels.


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#9 firefly1

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Posted 04 August 2014 - 0733 AM

.......... He drew the obvious parallel with China, & asked what there was in the South China Sea, etc. that was worth the cost of a war.

 

He got no answer to the question, & said the senior general did not seem convinced by his argument.

 

But China isn't doing much in the South China Sea.

 

The USA is somewhat disingenuous in its attitudes to China so close to its home.

 

What would the USA say if Russia or someone else went around saying that they would make military alliances and move its ships around between the continental USA and Puerto Rico, Cuba, the Bahamas, etc....... because it didn't like the way the US was acting ?

 

China does NOT have rights over foreign countries, but the US is being more than a little provocative.  I can only imagine it is acting like this so that China makes silly statements which the US then uses as an excuse to increase military expenditure.   One of the most hilarious US attitudes is its preposterous idea that the Chinese navy is some sort of threat to world peace.

 

.


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#10 JasonJ

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Posted 04 August 2014 - 0955 AM

 

.......... He drew the obvious parallel with China, & asked what there was in the South China Sea, etc. that was worth the cost of a war.

 

He got no answer to the question, & said the senior general did not seem convinced by his argument.

 

But China isn't doing much in the South China Sea.

 

The USA is somewhat disingenuous in its attitudes to China so close to its home.

 

What would the USA say if Russia or someone else went around saying that they would make military alliances and move its ships around between the continental USA and Puerto Rico, Cuba, the Bahamas, etc....... because it didn't like the way the US was acting ?

 

China does NOT have rights over foreign countries, but the US is being more than a little provocative.  I can only imagine it is acting like this so that China makes silly statements which the US then uses as an excuse to increase military expenditure.   One of the most hilarious US attitudes is its preposterous idea that the Chinese navy is some sort of threat to world peace.

 

 

 

China is pushing and pushing to see what they can get out of their claims.

 

They released a 10 dotted line map this summer. Up from 9 dashes. The added 10th dash explicitly includes Taiwan.

 

Chinamap10dotted.jpg

 

This is what China wants. Why else would they publish this map?

 

So more than the US, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Taiwan have issues with the map. They need the US to slow China's assertive claim that this map shows to a crawl. Imagine if the US was just completely out of the picture. This map would become true in the practical sense within months. Chinese resource exploitative assets would be all over the SCS and China would land their army right into Taiwan like Nazi Germany did in the Sudetenland. I don't think China would be afraid of fire its cannons either. Taiwan becoming PRC naturally is not in the interest of Japan. So Japan gets sucked into this as well. If US willingness drops, it will have to be Japanese willingness to protect Taiwan.

 

China's economy is very large now. Their growth has slowed, but in relative terms, they are very big now. That size will translate over to military over time. The period of the paper dragon is fading. After 10 years, it most likely will become a steel Dragon. Combine that with expansionists intentions, then we have a problem.

 

The extent of China's ambitions is indicated in this map. It shows how it wants the PRC Navy to be able to hold up to the orange line against the US Navy. The orange line is the "new second island chain" defense line. A side effect of that would of course be Japan's navy being incapable of pushing back China's Navy from its shorelines.

 

Chinese+islandchian.jpg

 

They definitely are talking about a first (第一岛链)and second island chain (第二岛链) defense line. I posted this video before on a different thread. It shows the second line coming coming down from Japan (日本). China is (中国)

 

 

Another video here shows the second island chain includes Australia at 0:08. It has a 3rd line running down from Alaska and through Hawaii.

 

 

These videos probably shouldn't be taken very seriously but it definitely requires attention. I wish I could understand the Chinese but my Chinese is still just beginner level.

 

Another video. The lines come up at around 6:15.

 

http://youtu.be/GqVPEi-VHEk

 

It's kind of hard to think that they do not take these lines seriously by the way the videos are presented. Its definitely a call for strengthening their military. The earlier arguments that that the SCS belongs to China because of historical fishing sites or historical navigation sites now gets the national defense argument.

 

So my biggest issue on China is its limitations on freedom of speech. Its apparent lack of government transparency that makes the US government look like a clean window. Its censorship of its China-net. Its their squeeze on Hong Kong's democracy. Its them seeing it perfectly fine to bash Japan over and over while suppressing much criticism towards themselves from their own people. With Tianamen square, it could have been a case where China was moving too fast with opening up and liberalization (not today's meaning of the word liberalization in the US) making the crack down perhaps somewhat understandable. But they totally shoot down in anyway possible of talking about June 4th inside China, even now. Its not exactly the kind of government I want to see grow relatively larger and more influential in the world.


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#11 Heirophant

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Posted 04 August 2014 - 1053 AM

 

 

So my biggest issue on China is its limitations on freedom of speech. Its apparent lack of government transparency that makes the US government look like a clean window. Its censorship of its China-net. Its their squeeze on Hong Kong's democracy. Its them seeing it perfectly fine to bash Japan over and over while suppressing much criticism towards themselves from their own people. With Tianamen square, it could have been a case where China was moving too fast with opening up and liberalization (not today's meaning of the word liberalization in the US) making the crack down perhaps somewhat understandable. But they totally shoot down in anyway possible of talking about June 4th inside China, even now. Its not exactly the kind of government I want to see grow relatively larger and more influential in the world.

 

 

We should be neutral to anything that happens within China (and inside Japan, Russia, India, Germany etc) and any other sovereign nation. What they do internally is their business.

 

As to non-Western-Democratic modes of thought gaining any traction in the world, I am not worried at all. We do not have a Cold War with China, and they are not violent exporters of ideology (they are emphatically not the USSR).

 

We have always said that the American and more broadly "Western" model is the most naturally attractive. That the world's other cultures and peoples would gravitate automatically towards us, and away from "modern Islam", "East-European authoritarianism" (a la Russia) and "Asian capitalist-totalitarianism" (China). That South American "oligarchic feudalism" would fade away.

 

I see no reason whatsoever that the basic premise of the attraction of Western ways is under question. As long as no warfare is involved, let all other cultures TRY to gain power and influence in the world. May the best culture and system win!  


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#12 firefly1

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Posted 04 August 2014 - 1234 PM

.

 

Strictly speaking Formosa was part of China.  Now I agree that over the years AND ESPECIALLY SINCE IT BECAME DEMOCRATIC Taiwan should be regarded as a separate nation, however China can quite easily still be peeved.

 

You carefully ignored all the provocation the USA has been performing and the vastly over-blown warnings of Chinese expansionism.

 

IF you think that China is expansionist, how do you perceive the USA's wprds and actions ?

 

.


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#13 JasonJ

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Posted 04 August 2014 - 1312 PM

If there were no SCS, Senkaku claims, and continual expression that Taiwan belongs to the PRC, there would be no US Asian pivot policy, nor the reinterpretation in Japan.

The way I see it, US words and actions haven't been "expansionist" especially after Iraq and Afghanistan. I'll admit I can be subject to biased thoughts. So please explain the growing US expanionism, especially in the Pacific.

How have I over blown China's "expanionism". I just stated what has happened. Or was it the part about if the US did not exist? Do you not agree that China would invade Taiwan if the US did not exist?

Anyway, it is the Chicom government itself that concerns me more. I understand how states compete. I wouldn't mind China's plans so much if they were an open society, a government that can be held accountable. I would just see it as state actors competing. May the best one win. But by looking at each one, I do have a preference. Heirophant said we should be neutral towards internal affairs of different countries. Well yes, but up to a point. Chicom officials blocking the media from entering certain places in Xinjiang or Tibet at certain times is a cause for concern. Trying to delete June 4th Tianamen Square is a concern. The US becoming a Nanny state is a concern.
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#14 firefly1

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Posted 04 August 2014 - 1633 PM

.

 

Since the mid-90s the USA has been warning of Chinese worldwide military ambitions (strange I can't see any).  The USA has been trying to tie the various nations offshore of China into a military alliance against China, and has been proposing equipment and tactics to enter into the South China Sea  (again what has that got to do with China's Worldwide military ambitions ?).

 

Re Taiwan, as far as Chinese ultra-nationalists it IS Chinese, the only reason it isn't is because of the USA's interference, it is almost as if Manhattan was not part of the USA.

 

I do mot like the Chinese government, but to go around pretending they are intent on world domination and pretending that American pressure on them is somehow innocent is laughable.

 

Again I would ask, how would the USA react if a huge foreign power started organising all the states off shore of the continental USA to form an alliance against it and started proclaiming how it was going to organise its weapons and tactics in order to fight the USA off the shores of the USA ?

 

.


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#15 Corinthian

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Posted 04 August 2014 - 1834 PM

 

 

China is pushing and pushing to see what they can get out of their claims.

 

They released a 10 dotted line map this summer. Up from 9 dashes. The added 10th dash explicitly includes Taiwan.


 

 

 

 

That's nothing. I recently made a 140 +/- 10-or-so hashtag line for Philippines Stronk(!) MegaEmpire that included the whole of China, and parts of Kazahkstan because, Sabina....


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#16 Corinthian

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Posted 04 August 2014 - 1842 PM

Heard summat on the radio. Western military historian talking to senior Chinese officers about WW1 told 'em biggest lesson to be learned from it was that if you're winning the peace, you can't gain by war: Germany was well on the way to economic domination of Europe in 1914, & but for the war, it's hard to see anything happening to stop its rise. He drew the obvious parallel with China, & asked what there was in the South China Sea, etc. that was worth the cost of a war.

 

He got no answer to the question, & said the senior general did not seem convinced by his argument.

 

China thinks it can win if and when a shooting war happens in the SCS. It isn't afraid of the USA - for now - as it sees the USA doesn't seem to have the stomach to fight wars nowadays, especially a war with a nuclear armed country with large and improving armed forces like China. Which is one reason why China is acting the way it is because it sees that it can, and no one can stop it.

 

I was reading up on the Three Gorges Dam yesterday and realized just how much electricity that hydroelectric project produces. And then, as I read on, I realized just how much power hungry China is as the Three Gorges Dam hardly puts a dent on the power requirements of China (IIRC, that project provides around a bit more than 1% of China's power needs). Wow. So yeah, if I were the guys in Beijing, I think I *need* those resources lying in the SCS - from food to fossil fuels. Meanwhile, it's best just to buy all that natural gas in Siberia from Moscow instead of risking a war with them, and besides, with current USA-Russian relationship, it's nice to have your back "secure" (just as USA's back is secure with Canada).


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#17 X-Files

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Posted 04 August 2014 - 1842 PM

 

 

Secondly, because when it comes to China, it is no longer just the Spratleys we would be talking about. 3 years on from X-files' "Hypothetical War" thread, China is now going head-to-head with Japan in the East China Sea. Who next? What next?

 

Actually, if you go read the first few pages of that thread, I even included a potential conflict with Japan. I got alot of crap from the unimaginative - "how could a Spratly scenario ever wind up involving Japan??"

 

:D

 

Meanwhile, here's my ¥5 to your thread.

 

 

Last weekend Marvel’s (DIS) Guardians of the Galaxy opened with a bang. The ensemble production, depicting a team of superhero misfits on the run from a band of extraterrestrial bounty hunters, blasted away at the box office to the tune of $94 million domestically, the largest ever U.S. weekend opening in August. While a smashing success thus far domestically, Hollywood will be looking even more closely at the numbers when the film opens in China sometime in September.

 

http://finance.yahoo...-193550270.html

 

 

When an American Center of Economic Gravity (Hollywood) capers & caters to Beijing, you can tell which way the wind is blowing. The first indicator appeared three years ago...

 

http://screenrant.co...-schrad-106177/


Edited by X-Files, 04 August 2014 - 1848 PM.

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#18 Corinthian

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Posted 04 August 2014 - 1848 PM


 

 

Last weekend Marvel’s (DIS) Guardians of the Galaxy opened with a bang. The ensemble production, depicting a team of superhero misfits on the run from a band of extraterrestrial bounty hunters, blasted away at the box office to the tune of $94 million domestically, the largest ever U.S. weekend opening in August. While a smashing success thus far domestically, Hollywood will be looking even more closely at the numbers when the film opens in China sometime in September.

 

http://finance.yahoo...-193550270.html

 

 

I am actually relieved that this is a Marvel/Hollywood movie that does NOT feature any Chinese elements, be it from locations in China, or Chinese actors. I was starting to roll my eyes when I realized there was a for-China-audience-only version of Iron Man 3, and was getting a bit tired when X-Men: DOFP was partly set in China with a Chinese actress as among the heroes (fortunately, a real pretty one). When I learned that Transformers 4 was set in China with said Chinese actress having a larger role in it, I wanted to puke. Hollywood's pandering to China because, well, China and money, is making me just shake my head at how, uhm, low Hollywood can be just to earn money.


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#19 X-Files

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Posted 04 August 2014 - 1902 PM

From eight (count them, 8. I'll wait here til you finish) years ago...

 

China's rapid development has attracted worldwide attention in recent years. The implications of various aspects of China's rise, from its expanding influence and military muscle to its growing demand for energy supplies, are being heatedly debated in the international community as well as within China. Correctly understanding China's achievements and its path toward greater development is thus crucial.

Since starting to open up and reform its economy in 1978, China has averaged 9.4 percent annual GDP growth, one of the highest growth rates in the world. In 1978, it accounted for less than one percent of the world economy, and its total foreign trade was worth $20.6 billion. Today, it accounts for four percent of the world economy and has foreign trade worth $851 billion -- the third-largest national total in the world. China has also attracted hundreds of billions of dollars of foreign investment and more than a trillion dollars of domestic nonpublic investment. A dozen years ago, China barely had mobile telecommunications services. Now it claims more than 300 million mobile-phone subscribers, more than any other nation. As of June 2004, nearly 100 million people there had access to the Internet.

Indeed, China has achieved the goal it set for itself in 1978: it has significantly improved the well-being of its people, although its development has often been narrow and uneven. The last 27 years of reform and growth have also shown the world the magnitude of China's labor force, creativity, and purchasing power; its commitment to development; and its degree of national cohesion. Once all of its potential is mobilized, its contribution to the world as an engine of growth will be unprecedented

 

.

 

http://www.foreignaf...at-power-status


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#20 JasonJ

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Posted 04 August 2014 - 2353 PM

.

 

Since the mid-90s the USA has been warning of Chinese worldwide military ambitions (strange I can't see any).  The USA has been trying to tie the various nations offshore of China into a military alliance against China, and has been proposing equipment and tactics to enter into the South China Sea  (again what has that got to do with China's Worldwide military ambitions ?).

 

Re Taiwan, as far as Chinese ultra-nationalists it IS Chinese, the only reason it isn't is because of the USA's interference, it is almost as if Manhattan was not part of the USA.

 

I do mot like the Chinese government, but to go around pretending they are intent on world domination and pretending that American pressure on them is somehow innocent is laughable.

 

Again I would ask, how would the USA react if a huge foreign power started organising all the states off shore of the continental USA to form an alliance against it and started proclaiming how it was going to organise its weapons and tactics in order to fight the USA off the shores of the USA ?

 

.

 

 

Taiwan is already Chinese. It is the Republic of China. It doesn't have to be part of PRC to be Chinese. However some people in Taiwan want to escape the historical legacy with China and are considering just calling themselves Taiwanese. PRC's reaction is far from friendly though to ROC officially become Taiwan, big reason why they won't.

 

In the Caribbean, the only countries I can think of that would welcome an anti-US ally in the region is Venezuela and maybe Cuba and for the wrong reasons. Venezuela can't get their act together. And lots of Cubans try running away to the US. The Philippines welcomed the return of the US base. And with the oil rig, China pushed Vietnam into a corner rethinking its relationship with China. India also has a cautious eye on China. China has brought it upon itself.

 

Since the mid-90s? So the US military has  giving some warnings about China's intentions. China probably has already been stealing top secret information at that time. While on the other side, US businesses like Wal-mart, Google, McDonald's, and so were stepping over each to get into China. The US government permitted business exchange. Its how China's economy grew so large to begin with. American arrogance said that China would see the light of capitalism and democracy after experiencing business success, even after considering the crack down of Tianamen Square. So the ball was in China's hands. They got their big economic build up. Entirely changed the landscape, with huge sky scrapers popping up all over the place. So what do they do with that money? They become more assertive with their old-fashion claims. They are directly challenging hegemony of the US over the long term. If it was a super sized Taiwan challenging hegemony, fine sure, go for it Taiwan, no problem from me. But its not. Its the PRC. Hey, PRC is better than the USSR or Imperial Japan. But between the US and PRC, I'd still easily prefer US hegemony.

 

 

 

 

China is pushing and pushing to see what they can get out of their claims.

 

They released a 10 dotted line map this summer. Up from 9 dashes. The added 10th dash explicitly includes Taiwan.


 

 

 

 

That's nothing. I recently made a 140 +/- 10-or-so hashtag line for Philippines Stronk(!) MegaEmpire that included the whole of China, and parts of Kazahkstan because, Sabina....

 

 

Propaganda tool justifying such claims.

 


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