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Analysis Of Recent Attack On Saudi Arabian Oil Facility


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#21 glenn239

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Posted 18 September 2019 - 1455 PM

All the mechanical failures were with the cruise missiles.  Interesting.


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#22 Colin

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Posted 18 September 2019 - 1601 PM

I suspect Houthi struggle with Quality Control, particularly as access to coastal areas and ports is not as good as it used to be. They might have used up a significant amount of their strike potentiel.


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#23 Doug97

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 0205 AM

"At least four shorter-range defence systems, designed to take out smaller targets, were also present around Abqaiq, according to satellite images. But they were either positioned at the wrong end of the facility or would have seen the tiny drones and missiles too late to shoot them down"

https://www.theguard...ill-happen-next

Do we know what these short-range systems are? Phalanx maybe?
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#24 Josh

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 0310 AM

The only short ranged system in KSA service I can turn up on a search is Skyguard 35mm.

 

ETA: Putin laughingly said maybe the KSA needs S400, but what they could probably really use is Pantsir.


Edited by Josh, 19 September 2019 - 0311 AM.

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#25 Yama

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 0311 AM

And bingo, the drones were indeed of Iranian provenance and this particular model was apparently unveiled during the May 2014 IRGC Aerospace Force exhibition:


Finnish defence experts were quite unimpressed with Saudi evidence. It was pointed out that all the debris seems compatible with drones and missiles Houthi showed off in July:
https://s4.reutersme...PEF8G1NS&w=1280
 
Of course, it seems quite unlikely that Houthi are able to develope and mass-produce large numbers of such advanced weaponry. General suspicion is that 'indigenous' missiles are custom designed to them by Iran for plausible deniability.


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#26 Yama

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 0313 AM

I suspect Houthi struggle with Quality Control, particularly as access to coastal areas and ports is not as good as it used to be. They might have used up a significant amount of their strike potentiel.

 

Cruise missiles designed by pretty much anyone have high failure rate. Missiles crashing by themselves along the way are regular feature of almost any cruise missile strike.


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#27 Josh

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 0319 AM

I suspect Houthi Iranians struggle with Quality Control, particularly as access to coastal areas and ports is not as good as it used to be. They might have used up a significant amount of their strike potentiel.

 

Fixed it for you. I do wonder where the failed missiles were found. If they were all found together that would indicate there was a specific step in their flight path that caused a failure, and if it was inside the KSA, then it was something that went wrong likely entering the terminal mode. Although for all we know these things are littering the desert all the way to Iran; I get the impression the examples found already were relatively close to the target.


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#28 Josh

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 0320 AM

 

And bingo, the drones were indeed of Iranian provenance and this particular model was apparently unveiled during the May 2014 IRGC Aerospace Force exhibition:


Finnish defence experts were quite unimpressed with Saudi evidence. It was pointed out that all the debris seems compatible with drones and missiles Houthi showed off in July:
https://s4.reutersme...PEF8G1NS&w=1280
 
Of course, it seems quite unlikely that Houthi are able to develope and mass-produce large numbers of such advanced weaponry. General suspicion is that 'indigenous' missiles are custom designed to them by Iran for plausible deniability.

 

 

That seems more than likely; I personally take it as established fact. Where exactly are the Houti hand crafting turbine blades in Yemen?


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#29 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 0325 AM

From what was said on CNN last night ( believe they were citing the Saudi Evidence) there was some evidence of a GPS track on the circuit boards, and the Iranians were remotely trying to delete it. if that is remotely true, it would mean the Iranians have developed something like Tactical TLAM.


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#30 Daan

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 0401 AM

The tiny holes seen in the aerial footage are actually quite large from another perspective:

Datg16v.jpg


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#31 Daan

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 0409 AM

 

 

And bingo, the drones were indeed of Iranian provenance and this particular model was apparently unveiled during the May 2014 IRGC Aerospace Force exhibition:


Finnish defence experts were quite unimpressed with Saudi evidence. It was pointed out that all the debris seems compatible with drones and missiles Houthi showed off in July:
https://s4.reutersme...PEF8G1NS&w=1280
 
Of course, it seems quite unlikely that Houthi are able to develope and mass-produce large numbers of such advanced weaponry. General suspicion is that 'indigenous' missiles are custom designed to them by Iran for plausible deniability.

 

 

That seems more than likely; I personally take it as established fact. Where exactly are the Houti hand crafting turbine blades in Yemen?

 

The cruise missile remains look to be of the Houthi Quds 1, which was indeed shown in July this year.

dfgfd.jpg

 

The Quds 1 is powered during flight by a (copy of) the small Czech turbojet TJ100:

TJ100-1024x555.jpg

https://www.armscont...eet-the-quds-1/

 

However, the small delta drone was not shown at the Houthi drone presentation.


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#32 Yama

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 0449 AM

However, the small delta drone was not shown at the Houthi drone presentation.


Image shows three delta type drones in the background. Too indistinct to make judgement if they are same as the one shown by Saudi.
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#33 Josh

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 0458 AM


 


 

And bingo, the drones were indeed of Iranian provenance and this particular model was apparently unveiled during the May 2014 IRGC Aerospace Force exhibition:


Finnish defence experts were quite unimpressed with Saudi evidence. It was pointed out that all the debris seems compatible with drones and missiles Houthi showed off in July:
https://s4.reutersme...PEF8G1NS&w=1280
 
Of course, it seems quite unlikely that Houthi are able to develope and mass-produce large numbers of such advanced weaponry. General suspicion is that 'indigenous' missiles are custom designed to them by Iran for plausible deniability.
 
 
That seems more than likely; I personally take it as established fact. Where exactly are the Houti hand crafting turbine blades in Yemen?
 
The cruise missile remains look to be of the Houthi Quds 1, which was indeed shown in July this year.
dfgfd.jpg
 
The Quds 1 is powered during flight by a (copy of) the small Czech turbojet TJ100:
TJ100-1024x555.jpg
https://www.armscont...eet-the-quds-1/
 
However, the small delta drone was not shown at the Houthi drone presentation.

Ive no doubt the Houti are in possession of those weapons. I consider it nigh on impossible they are manufacturing them.
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#34 Daan

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 0516 AM

 

However, the small delta drone was not shown at the Houthi drone presentation.


Image shows three delta type drones in the background. Too indistinct to make judgement if they are same as the one shown by Saudi.

 

Those in the background are small drones, see also http://spioenkop.blo...e-handbook.html

 

2nd and 3rd from left is the 'Rased'  drone, a copy of the commercial Skywalker X8 UAV, supposedly a surveillance UAV.

C5m73-P6-WQAAB3t4.jpg

 

4rd from left is the Qasef 2K, a loitering munition or suicide UAV, and a not a delta, as seen in a close-up made at the same presentation:

D-4-LBO2-VUAAn-LNl.jpg


Edited by Daan, 19 September 2019 - 0517 AM.

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#35 Mighty_Zuk

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 0743 AM

The only short ranged system in KSA service I can turn up on a search is Skyguard 35mm.
 
ETA: Putin laughingly said maybe the KSA needs S400, but what they could probably really use is Pantsir.


That's because the S-400 is a political weapon. The Pantsir is not.
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#36 glenn239

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 0747 AM

 

 

 

 

And bingo, the drones were indeed of Iranian provenance and this particular model was apparently unveiled during the May 2014 IRGC Aerospace Force exhibition:


Finnish defence experts were quite unimpressed with Saudi evidence. It was pointed out that all the debris seems compatible with drones and missiles Houthi showed off in July:
https://s4.reutersme...PEF8G1NS&w=1280
 
Of course, it seems quite unlikely that Houthi are able to develope and mass-produce large numbers of such advanced weaponry. General suspicion is that 'indigenous' missiles are custom designed to them by Iran for plausible deniability.
 
 
That seems more than likely; I personally take it as established fact. Where exactly are the Houti hand crafting turbine blades in Yemen?
 
The cruise missile remains look to be of the Houthi Quds 1, which was indeed shown in July this year.
dfgfd.jpg
 
The Quds 1 is powered during flight by a (copy of) the small Czech turbojet TJ100:
TJ100-1024x555.jpg
https://www.armscont...eet-the-quds-1/
 
However, the small delta drone was not shown at the Houthi drone presentation.

Ive no doubt the Houti are in possession of those weapons. I consider it nigh on impossible they are manufacturing them.

 

 

I doubt the Saudis can manufacture F-15's either, and yet Yemen is getting the shit bombed out of it by them.   


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#37 GARGEAN

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 0807 AM

ETA: Putin laughingly said maybe the KSA needs S400, but what they could probably really use is Pantsir.


Buk-M3.
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#38 Daan

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 0826 AM

The Drive and this Twitter account have some more information on the air defenses around the attacked sites.


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#39 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 0829 AM

 

 

However, the small delta drone was not shown at the Houthi drone presentation.


Image shows three delta type drones in the background. Too indistinct to make judgement if they are same as the one shown by Saudi.

 

Those in the background are small drones, see also http://spioenkop.blo...e-handbook.html

 

2nd and 3rd from left is the 'Rased'  drone, a copy of the commercial Skywalker X8 UAV, supposedly a surveillance UAV.

C5m73-P6-WQAAB3t4.jpg

 

4rd from left is the Qasef 2K, a loitering munition or suicide UAV, and a not a delta, as seen in a close-up made at the same presentation:

D-4-LBO2-VUAAn-LNl.jpg

 

 

 

The top one it seems hard to believe to make it from Yemen, or Iran.


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#40 rmgill

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 0856 AM

My money is on small numbers used in Yemen for targets near Yemen and the ones that hit KSA being launched from Iran. 


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