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Analysis Of Recent Attack On Saudi Arabian Oil Facility


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#41 glenn239

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 0928 AM

The Saudi frontier can probably be crossed at will by missile teams blending in with local traffic.  


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#42 Daan

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 1015 AM

[quote name="Stuart Galbraith" post="1448964" timestamp="1568899753"
 
The top one it seems hard to believe to make it from Yemen, or Iran.[/quote]

Yeah, the Rased was not used during the recent attack. However, it was shown during the Houthi presentation in July.
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#43 Nobu

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 1109 AM

Crude parade mockups aside, Iran has clearly been playing its military strike capability cards close to its chest. 

 

The implications of continuing improvements to that hand on Dimona are clear.


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#44 Josh

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 1200 PM

The current batch of weapons lack the range and the punch to put Dimona at risk, regardless of air defenses. And Israel is possibly the most tightly monitored and defended airspace in the world with regard to small projectiles.

ETA: plus the inevitable counter strike against Iranian nuclear targets.

Edited by Josh, 19 September 2019 - 1201 PM.

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#45 Daan

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 1423 PM

That may be so, but it is surprising that for many of the publicized Israeli attacks on IRGC or Hezbollah targets in Syria the reason given was the destruction of a 'missile factory' or 'missile warehouse'. Since Israel has probably always been very much aware of the capabilities of Iran's missile and drone technology, it chooses prevention rather than relying solely on its AD network.


Edited by Daan, 19 September 2019 - 1424 PM.

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#46 Chris Werb

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 1508 PM

CNN's analysis. Pretty good IMHO.


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#47 Mighty_Zuk

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 1559 PM

That may be so, but it is surprising that for many of the publicized Israeli attacks on IRGC or Hezbollah targets in Syria the reason given was the destruction of a 'missile factory' or 'missile warehouse'. Since Israel has probably always been very much aware of the capabilities of Iran's missile and drone technology, it chooses prevention rather than relying solely on its AD network.


It's not the factories themselves that worry Israel. It's the fact that these new rockets are guided, rather than dumb. Or are dumb but with low enough CEP.

In English media it isn't nearly as clear, but in Hebrew media the entire campaign is described as a war against Hezbollah's accuracy project.

Now you tell me: If you're wearing a bulletproof vest, would you let some jackass point a gun at you when he has the intent to shoot (and has fired on you before), or would you try to neutralize them some way and take away their gun?
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#48 Mighty_Zuk

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 1605 PM

The current batch of weapons lack the range and the punch to put Dimona at risk, regardless of air defenses. And Israel is possibly the most tightly monitored and defended airspace in the world with regard to small projectiles.

ETA: plus the inevitable counter strike against Iranian nuclear targets.


Why small projectiles? Israel's air defenses go all the way up to anti-ICBM defense.
Hezbollah has no way of striking at Dimona due to the distance. Iran has no chance at launching cruise missiles from its territory or from Yemen without Israel picking up the signature long in advance.
Due to a combination of many different natural obstacles, and abundance of anti-CM IADS systems in Dimona's vicinity (Iron Dome and David's Sling).
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#49 Chris Werb

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 1650 PM

Is Iron dome anti-CM? I thought it was primarily a cheap means of engaging inexpensive ballistic munitions?


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#50 rmgill

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 1701 PM

No system is proof. Just because you have defenses doesn't mean your nation can't retaliate.
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#51 Chris Werb

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 1707 PM

No system is proof. Just because you have defenses doesn't mean your nation can't retaliate.

 

Honestly, in our situation, I think defensive systems for civilian and defence infrastructure in the UK would be a complete waste of money and we should go all in on survivable retaliatory systems. The cost balance is currently overwhelmingly in favour of the attacker and is likely to remain so for a very long time. The only caveat to that is that you need someone to retaliate against for deterrence to work.


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#52 Josh

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 1720 PM

The US is developing a road mobile hypersonic missile with a 3000km range. First fire from a test battery is scheduled for 2023. Wait for the Yanks to get it working then buy it bulk or license it. Even Trump would probably let you buy at cost, and most any other politician would practically give it too you to help salvage the special relationship and as a Pershing II style deterrent.
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#53 Brian Kennedy

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 1737 PM

I had to read this in school; published in 2001 and it seems kinda prescient now -- https://www.amazon.c...i/dp/0198515278

 

(This is me trying to remember back 17 years) IIRC one of the author's proposed scenarios was a mass attack by a shit-ton of remote-controlled Cessna type aircraft.


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#54 Brian Kennedy

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 1853 PM

One thing I was wondering, maybe because I had a long work week, but how did nobody end up killed or injured? If that is even true? Wouldnt those kinds of installations have night security guards and whatnot?
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#55 Mighty_Zuk

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 2057 PM

Is Iron dome anti-CM? I thought it was primarily a cheap means of engaging inexpensive ballistic munitions?


It was SUPPOSED to be an inexpensive means of engaging ballistic munitions. But it was not completely dumbed down for that purpose. And because it's supposed to work in extremely short ranges as well, going from a maximum of claimed 70km to an extremely low 3km, it's exceptionally kinematic.

On top of that, tests had shown it can defeat targets at least as high as 10km, but further tests to check where the limit is were never made public, or whether they really occurred.

Over the years Rafael made efforts to increase the mission set of this system.

It's now a C-RAM system that can also defeat air breathing threats, helicopters, cruise missiles, PGMs, small UAVs and other low RCS targets, and can serve as point defense on ships.

The US is purchasing numerous Iron Dome batteries as part of the IFPC increment 2 program, which seeks an interim anti-CM solution.
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#56 Colin

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 2234 PM

I think the day of the drone is going to be short. Laser systems are maturing and have the added benefits of small target lead and no worries about falling shrapnel.

 

One difference from Israel to KSA is that KSA is many times larger with very dispensed assets, making them hard to guard. Time for KSA to create a proxy force in Yemen/Iraq and have them bombard Iran's refineries. 


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#57 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 20 September 2019 - 0145 AM

 

No system is proof. Just because you have defenses doesn't mean your nation can't retaliate.

 

Honestly, in our situation, I think defensive systems for civilian and defence infrastructure in the UK would be a complete waste of money and we should go all in on survivable retaliatory systems. The cost balance is currently overwhelmingly in favour of the attacker and is likely to remain so for a very long time. The only caveat to that is that you need someone to retaliate against for deterrence to work.

 

 

As illustrated by the Gatwick shutdown, its often completely impossible to identify who is doing it. If we wont have systems to shoot them down, we need better methods for detecting and identifying who is sending them. Police drones coupled with low level radar to quickly identify a launch site is a start.


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#58 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 20 September 2019 - 0151 AM

I think the day of the drone is going to be short. Laser systems are maturing and have the added benefits of small target lead and no worries about falling shrapnel.

 

One difference from Israel to KSA is that KSA is many times larger with very dispensed assets, making them hard to guard. Time for KSA to create a proxy force in Yemen/Iraq and have them bombard Iran's refineries. 

 

Yes, but how long is it going to be before people start integrating them with stealth technology? Drones are difficult enough as it is to pick up flying through the weeds (particularly if they are quadcopters). The fixed wing examples strike me as just as viable to make stealthy via intelligent shaping or even RAM. You dont need the high end stuff to make these things more difficult to acquire.

 

 

Well we musnt get too fanciful, its not the day of the drone yet. At the same time, I dont think we should jump the gun and say its easy to defeat.


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#59 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 20 September 2019 - 0536 AM

Iran threatens to bring down Donald Trump, as it once brought down Jimmy Carter.

https://www.thesun.c...hostage-crisis/

 

As Jimmy Carter was replaced by Ronald Reagan, you might think this is none too clear reasoning, but there we are...


Edited by Stuart Galbraith, 20 September 2019 - 0537 AM.

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#60 DougRichards

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Posted 20 September 2019 - 0548 AM

One thing I was wondering, maybe because I had a long work week, but how did nobody end up killed or injured? If that is even true? Wouldnt those kinds of installations have night security guards and whatnot?

 

Maybe their lives were not worth worrying about, or that they were not able to use their sidearms to stop the attacking craft means that they needed to be liquidated.


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