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#961 Mobius

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Posted 15 February 2019 - 1935 PM

You're cherrypicking counties???

I'm not going to post all of them,  But of the 12 largest only Riverside has a net greater income of in-migration than outmigration

 

From some of the highest income counties

 


San Francisco
In-Migration Total: $3,142,880,000
Outmigration Total: $3,363,695,000
In-Migration Average Per Tax Return: $114,328
Outmigration Average Per Tax Return:$134,618
 
Contra costa
In-Migration Total: $1,914,278,000
Outmigration Total: $2,234,658,000
In-Migration Average Per Tax Return: $92,849
Outmigration Average Per Tax Return:$115,254
 
There are 214,750 active registered Democratic voters in the district. Only 27,744 voted, and Ocasio-Cortez won by more than 4,000 votes.  Or 12.9% even voted.  

Edited by Mobius, 15 February 2019 - 1943 PM.

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#962 Detonable

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Posted 16 February 2019 - 0101 AM

Immigrants coming illegally from Mexico arent high education . They are there to replace American low wage workers. Youre ending up with a society of wealthy legal Americans (some of whom may be immigrants) and a foreign worker class doing the grunt work.
Sort of like slave plantations except the illegals can leave of their own will.
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#963 lastdingo

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Posted 16 February 2019 - 0623 AM

Immigrants coming illegally from Mexico arent high education . They are there to replace American low wage workers. Youre ending up with a society of wealthy legal Americans (some of whom may be immigrants) and a foreign worker class doing the grunt work.

 

Yeah, but California has Silicon Valley, which attracts many high education foreigners. That was mentioned before.

 

Moreover (and this matters for Mobius' stats) income is not a constant. Low income, high education immigrants (domestic or foreign) may greatly improve their income in the state and when they emigrate back home they end up being counted as high income emigrants.

 

 

Overall, Californians clearly are fine with affairs by a large majority or else they wouldn't keep re-electing Democrats. And that's not about gerrymandered districts as in Wisconsin where the Democrats won the popular vote , but Republicans outrageously held a supermajority. We saw a 62/38 divide in the governor election as well.

 

 

What we're seeing here is Republican bashing of the Democrats' success story, California. Republicans cannot stand that their full control Republican orthodoxy policy experiment Kansas is a disaster, while the Democrats' full control Democratic party orthodoxy/progressivism experiment California is a clear success.

Hence the smear attacks on California, including misleading claims and cherrypicking about migration. Neither the Rich are fleeing the state because of taxes nor is investment depressed because of taxes nor does the middle class flee the state because of taxes, nor are the state finances still in a bad shape as they used to be with Republican policy elements (especially their refusal to increase taxes). Republicans were wrong about almost everything in California.

 

Meanwhile. Republican experiment laboratory Kansas is a gross failure.

https://en.wikipedia...nsas_experiment

https://www.forbes.c...s/#467ff4e55508

https://www.brooking...cut-experiment/

https://thehill.com/...-cut-experiment

https://edition.cnn....nsas/index.html

 “There never was a shot of adrenaline. If anything, that shot put the state on life support,” she said. “It’s the same thing that Trump is saying: there’s going to be tremendous job growth. Well, that didn’t happen either. It’s going to take an entire generation to undo this damage.”

Ochs said: “I just hope the country can listen to us. Don’t do what we did.”

Job growth in the state lags behind neighboring Missouri. The cuts to pass-through businesses gave some small businesses a small tax break – but didn’t spark the promised hiring boom.

https://www.theguard...failed-tax-cuts 

 

The Republicans began to experiment with Kansas effective in mid-2012. That's when Democrats gained control in California and California's stats began turning for the better.

Meanwhile, Kansas net migration per 1,000 residents:

2011/12: +0.4

2012/13: -2.3

2013/14: -2.5

2014/15: -2.3

2015/16: -4.4

http://www.governing...n-by-state.html

 

So, as mentioned with the figures of California, that's "barely perceptible" migration. Still, democratic policies experiment saw outmigration shrinking very much, Republican policies experiment saw outmigration starting and grow very much.

 

Republicans better stfu about migration effects of either party's policies when someone is in the room who may bring facts to the table.

 

 

A citizen should participate in the political process of the country, and contribute to the pursuit of good governance. This requires a certain amount of attention, knowledge, clarity of thought and reasoning. You guys should better shake off the influence of propaganda and work on meeting these requirements for a purposeful participation.

So far, you seem to believe too much in mythology that was spoon-fed to you from propaganda outlets.

 

Also, pay more attention to science and less to obviously  incompetent ideologues (people who comment on many if not all areas of policy, sch as talk radio hosts, political commentary hosts, journalists without specialisation). Pay attention to how often pundits were wrong in the past. That guy who had beat the drums for the Iraq War? Don't listen to him about Iran or Venezuela. That guy who warned about inflation from 2010-2016? Worthless commentator on all economic affairs.

 

Or be non-diligent, enjoy your echo chambers, avoid cognitive dissonance and put no effort in. Politicians who care only about their own benefits and ideology will exploit your support thoroughly (but not thankfully).


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#964 Rick

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Posted 16 February 2019 - 0706 AM

Good overview.

https://www.the-amer...ia-turned-blue/


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#965 lastdingo

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Posted 16 February 2019 - 0751 AM

 

It seems OK, but in the finishing lines it's obsolete. The Republicans lost heavily among suburban voters in 2018 compared to previous elections.

https://www.national...uburban-voters/

https://www.vox.com/...licans-congress


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#966 Mobius

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Posted 16 February 2019 - 0914 AM

 

Immigrants coming illegally from Mexico arent high education . They are there to replace American low wage workers. Youre ending up with a society of wealthy legal Americans (some of whom may be immigrants) and a foreign worker class doing the grunt work.

 

Yeah, but California has Silicon Valley, which attracts many high education foreigners. That was mentioned before.

 

Moreover (and this matters for Mobius' stats) income is not a constant. Low income, high education immigrants (domestic or foreign) may greatly improve their income in the state and when they emigrate back home they end up being counted as high income emigrants.

 

 

So, as mentioned with the figures of California, that's "barely perceptible" migration. Still, democratic policies experiment saw outmigration shrinking very much, Republican policies experiment saw outmigration starting and grow very much.

 

Those figures in that article were set up o be misleading.  The categories were used to mask the real problem.   That is the overall income is declining.  Someone with $150,000 leaves and someone with $135,000 replaces them there is no change in the category number but there  is a $15,000 loss to be taxed.  That 'barely perceptible' is a net $2,2 billion loss to LA county income.

 

Many foreigners with proper education are not qualified to have secret or classified information. 


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#967 lastdingo

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Posted 16 February 2019 - 0958 AM

Yeah, well, hold back the crocodile tears.

Republicans concerned about loss of government revenue. You see something new everyday.

 

L.A. revenue is developing nicely.

http://www.lacontrol...e_forecast_2018


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#968 Mobius

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Posted 16 February 2019 - 1057 AM

Yeah, thanks to the tax cuts.

But I made a spreadsheet of California county income of in-migration and out-migration 2014-2015.  The net in-migration was $35.511 billion and out-migration of $37.667 billion.  or a $2.156 billion loss.


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#969 lastdingo

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Posted 16 February 2019 - 1245 PM

ROFL, tax cuts don't increase revenue (unless the rates were ridiculously high before, and much time passed for the tax subject base to grow).
That's one of the most stupid myths ever.
------------------------------
https://www.youtube....h?v=_kjaBcUwkOc

particularly https://youtu.be/_kjaBcUwkOc?t=200


Edited by lastdingo, 16 February 2019 - 1250 PM.

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#970 Rick

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Posted 16 February 2019 - 1328 PM

ROFL, tax cuts don't increase revenue (unless the rates were ridiculously high before, and much time passed for the tax subject base to grow).
That's one of the most stupid myths ever.
------------------------------
https://www.youtube....h?v=_kjaBcUwkOc

particularly https://youtu.be/_kjaBcUwkOc?t=200

Joint Economic Committee reported in April 2000 ;
From November 1982, when President Ronald Reagan's new economic program was beginning to take effect, to November 1989,
18.7 million new jobs were created. 
Total federal revenues doubled from just over $517 billion in 1980 to more than $1 trillion in 1990. In constant inflation-adjusted dollars, this was a 28 percent increase in revenue.
Revenues from individual income taxes climbed from just over $244 billion in 1980 to nearly $467 billion in 1990.5 In inflation-adjusted dollars, this amounts to a 25 percent increase.

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#971 Rick

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Posted 16 February 2019 - 1339 PM

 

Immigrants coming illegally from Mexico arent high education . They are there to replace American low wage workers. Youre ending up with a society of wealthy legal Americans (some of whom may be immigrants) and a foreign worker class doing the grunt work.

 

Yeah, but California has Silicon Valley, which attracts many high education foreigners. That was mentioned before.

 

Moreover (and this matters for Mobius' stats) income is not a constant. Low income, high education immigrants (domestic or foreign) may greatly improve their income in the state and when they emigrate back home they end up being counted as high income emigrants.

 

 

Overall, Californians clearly are fine with affairs by a large majority or else they wouldn't keep re-electing Democrats. And that's not about gerrymandered districts as in Wisconsin where the Democrats won the popular vote , but Republicans outrageously held a supermajority. We saw a 62/38 divide in the governor election as well.

 

 

What we're seeing here is Republican bashing of the Democrats' success story, California. Republicans cannot stand that their full control Republican orthodoxy policy experiment Kansas is a disaster, while the Democrats' full control Democratic party orthodoxy/progressivism experiment California is a clear success.

Hence the smear attacks on California, including misleading claims and cherrypicking about migration. Neither the Rich are fleeing the state because of taxes nor is investment depressed because of taxes nor does the middle class flee the state because of taxes, nor are the state finances still in a bad shape as they used to be with Republican policy elements (especially their refusal to increase taxes). Republicans were wrong about almost everything in California.

 

Meanwhile. Republican experiment laboratory Kansas is a gross failure.

https://en.wikipedia...nsas_experiment

https://www.forbes.c...s/#467ff4e55508

https://www.brooking...cut-experiment/

https://thehill.com/...-cut-experiment

https://edition.cnn....nsas/index.html

 “There never was a shot of adrenaline. If anything, that shot put the state on life support,” she said. “It’s the same thing that Trump is saying: there’s going to be tremendous job growth. Well, that didn’t happen either. It’s going to take an entire generation to undo this damage.”

Ochs said: “I just hope the country can listen to us. Don’t do what we did.”

Job growth in the state lags behind neighboring Missouri. The cuts to pass-through businesses gave some small businesses a small tax break – but didn’t spark the promised hiring boom.

https://www.theguard...failed-tax-cuts

 

The Republicans began to experiment with Kansas effective in mid-2012. That's when Democrats gained control in California and California's stats began turning for the better.

Meanwhile, Kansas net migration per 1,000 residents:

2011/12: +0.4

2012/13: -2.3

2013/14: -2.5

2014/15: -2.3

2015/16: -4.4

http://www.governing...n-by-state.html

 

So, as mentioned with the figures of California, that's "barely perceptible" migration. Still, democratic policies experiment saw outmigration shrinking very much, Republican policies experiment saw outmigration starting and grow very much.

 

Republicans better stfu about migration effects of either party's policies when someone is in the room who may bring facts to the table.

 

 

A citizen should participate in the political process of the country, and contribute to the pursuit of good governance. This requires a certain amount of attention, knowledge, clarity of thought and reasoning. You guys should better shake off the influence of propaganda and work on meeting these requirements for a purposeful participation.

So far, you seem to believe too much in mythology that was spoon-fed to you from propaganda outlets.

 

Also, pay more attention to science and less to obviously  incompetent ideologues (people who comment on many if not all areas of policy, sch as talk radio hosts, political commentary hosts, journalists without specialisation). Pay attention to how often pundits were wrong in the past. That guy who had beat the drums for the Iraq War? Don't listen to him about Iran or Venezuela. That guy who warned about inflation from 2010-2016? Worthless commentator on all economic affairs.

 

Or be non-diligent, enjoy your echo chambers, avoid cognitive dissonance and put no effort in. Politicians who care only about their own benefits and ideology will exploit your support thoroughly (but not thankfully).

 

why did tax cuts work in North Carolina, Indiana, and Tennessee but not in Kansas?
Couple of reasons:
1.In 2012 total state and local spending in Kansas was $26.6 Billion.
   In 2013 total state and local spending in Kansas was $26.2 Billion.
   In 2014 total state and local spending in Kansas was $27.3 Billion.
   In 2015 total state and local spending in Kansas was $27.5 Billion.
   In 2016 total state and local spending in Kansas was $27.1 Billion. 
 
2. Eliminating income taxes on more than 300,000 small businesses through the so-called LLC exemption, which was eliminated income tax on profits for owners of limited liability companies, sub-chapter S corporations and sole proprietorships.
 
Since Kansas did not reduce government spending, this is what lead to their deficit. I would also add that a state has educational,  infrastructure responsibilities.,law enforcement, and a limited amount of health and safety agencies to fund.  I don't know how much of this is an unfunded mandate imposed by the federal government, but an individual and a businesses needs to be taxed at least a small amount for the funding of said agencies. Welfare is not one of these. 

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#972 lastdingo

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Posted 16 February 2019 - 1424 PM

I just bothered to look at North Carolina, knowing your track record of disassociation with reality and considering you mentioned it forst:

 

first, an article that tries to be balanced:
https://longleafpoli...carolina-taxes/

 

Now the statistical reality:

 

https://www.statista...gdp-per-capita/

^ GDP per capita hadn't even recovered back to 2006-2008 levels in North Carolina by 2017!

Wow, that economic development sucks.

 

 

California GDP per capita growth 2.3% in 2017

North Carolina GDP per capita growth 1.2% in 2017

https://www.statista...t-gdp-by-state/

 

Tax cuts did not "work" in North Carolina, at least not the way the mythology of voodoo economics claims they would.

North Carolina's economic recovery was weak after 2008!

 

Annual real GDP growth (NOT per capital, I didn't find those stats on the quick):

year     North Carolina     United States as a whole

2009    -3.9%                   -2.8%

2010     1.1%                  2.5%

2011     1.2%                  1.6%

2012     -0.3%                  2.2%

2013     1.7%                   1.7%

2014     2.1%                  2.6%

2015     2.8%                  2.9%

2016     1.2 %                  1.5%

2017     2.3 %                  2.3%

 

sources

https://www.statista...tes-since-1990/

https://www.statista...ina-gdp-growth/

 

total real GDP 2017 compared to 2008:

N.C.: +8.27%

U.S.: +15,675%

 

https://www.statista...ina-gdp-growth/

https://www.statista...ina-since-1997/

 

North Carolina isn't booming and hasn't been booming. If anything, its economic policies look disastrous. It's far from a positive example for the voodoo economics crowd.

 

In other words:

If you argue for Republican (economic or fiscal) policies, you'll have the facts lined up against you.

It's no wonder you right wing guys prefer echo chambers and react so allergic to dissenters.

 

So today I learned how the American right wing seems to rationalise away the utter failure of Republican orthodox fiscal policy in Kansas:

It is delusional about the performance of the same in other states.


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#973 Rick

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Posted 16 February 2019 - 1532 PM

I just bothered to look at North Carolina, knowing your track record of disassociation with reality and considering you mentioned it forst:

 

first, an article that tries to be balanced:
https://longleafpoli...carolina-taxes/

 

Now the statistical reality:

 

https://www.statista...gdp-per-capita/

^ GDP per capita hadn't even recovered back to 2006-2008 levels in North Carolina by 2017!

Wow, that economic development sucks.

 

 

California GDP per capita growth 2.3% in 2017

North Carolina GDP per capita growth 1.2% in 2017

https://www.statista...t-gdp-by-state/

 

Tax cuts did not "work" in North Carolina, at least not the way the mythology of voodoo economics claims they would.

North Carolina's economic recovery was weak after 2008!

 

Annual real GDP growth (NOT per capital, I didn't find those stats on the quick):

year     North Carolina     United States as a whole

2009    -3.9%                   -2.8%

2010     1.1%                  2.5%

2011     1.2%                  1.6%

2012     -0.3%                  2.2%

2013     1.7%                   1.7%

2014     2.1%                  2.6%

2015     2.8%                  2.9%

2016     1.2 %                  1.5%

2017     2.3 %                  2.3%

 

sources

https://www.statista...tes-since-1990/

https://www.statista...ina-gdp-growth/

 

total real GDP 2017 compared to 2008:

N.C.: +8.27%

U.S.: +15,675%

 

https://www.statista...ina-gdp-growth/

https://www.statista...ina-since-1997/

 

North Carolina isn't booming and hasn't been booming. If anything, its economic policies look disastrous. It's far from a positive example for the voodoo economics crowd.

 

In other words:

If you argue for Republican (economic or fiscal) policies, you'll have the facts lined up against you.

It's no wonder you right wing guys prefer echo chambers and react so allergic to dissenters.

 

So today I learned how the American right wing seems to rationalise away the utter failure of Republican orthodox fiscal policy in Kansas:

It is delusional about the performance of the same in other states.

 Now, back to the success of Reaganomics decreasing taxes which increased government revenue. Also, see what you find in the other two states mentioned, Tennessee and, perhaps, the greatest state in the United States -- Indiana  :D

I'll leave you with this timeless gem by Alexis de Tocqueville, "The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money." 


Edited by Rick, 16 February 2019 - 1534 PM.

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#974 Rick

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Posted 16 February 2019 - 1559 PM

Since they began cutting taxes in 2013, North Carolina Republican legislators have kept annual increases in state spending below the rate of population growth and inflation. As a result, at the same time North Carolina taxpayers have been allowed to keep billions more of their hard-earned income, the state has experienced repeated budget surpluses. As they did in 2015, North Carolina legislators are once again returning surplus dollars back to taxpayers.
 
 
johnlocke.org/app/uploads/2016/10/Good-Economy-State.pdf
 
A growing problem facing North Carolina, and other states, is the shortage of trainable workers. I haven't checked but I wonder if there is an increase in the "blue-collar" skilled trades and a decrease in college admissions?
 

Edited by Rick, 16 February 2019 - 1614 PM.

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#975 lastdingo

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Posted 16 February 2019 - 1813 PM

Now, back to the success of Reaganomics decreasing taxes which increased government revenue.


Totally doesn't work that way, and you should know it.
Reagan agreed to cut taxes once, but then agreed 11 times to tax increases and still had huge deficits never seen before in peacetime.

https://www.cbsnews....e-with-reality/


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#976 Detonable

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Posted 16 February 2019 - 2229 PM

The article you cite says the 11 tax increases only ate up half of the tax cuts. So there was still a net tax cut.
You also neglected to note that Reagan came in during a recession, cut taxes to stimulate the economy, and raised taxes once the economy improved.
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#977 Detonable

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Posted 16 February 2019 - 2237 PM

You still keep touting California as some sort of success story when your countrymen are leaving because they cant afford to live there. Most people dont define driving citizens out and replacing them with foreigners as success.

Perhaps I should say most people not affiliated with the Democratic Party.

Edited by Detonable, 16 February 2019 - 2238 PM.

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#978 Panzermann

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Posted 17 February 2019 - 0316 AM

You still keep touting California as some sort of success story when your countrymen are leaving because they cant afford to live there. Most people dont define driving citizens out and replacing them with foreigners as success.

Perhaps I should say most people not affiliated with the Democratic Party.

 

It keeps those unwashed from south of the border away as well, because they cannot afford it either. ;)


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#979 lastdingo

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Posted 17 February 2019 - 0559 AM

The article you cite says the 11 tax increases only ate up half of the tax cuts. So there was still a net tax cut.
You also neglected to note that Reagan came in during a recession, cut taxes to stimulate the economy, and raised taxes once the economy improved.

 

Yeah, 11 tax raises that still didn't manage to avoid terribly large budget deficits. And those budget deficits (caused in part by making the government bigger, especially DoD) were the reason for the tax increases, not some kind of business cycle thinking as you seem to have implied.

 

Moreover, it's an old fallacy to think that the tax cuts stimulated the economy. The effect was negligible, if anything (the stimulation was rather in increased government spending). The main stimulating factor was the huge drop in FED interest rates after Volcker was done fighting inflation. The recession caused by the FED's high interest rates made Carter look bad (though he had extremely high growth rates earlier) and then when interest rates were reduced again the resulting economic stimulus made Reagan look good (though he had done nothing for it, and he confirmed Volcker only afterwards).

 

Go to a university library, pick some macroeconomics books or economic history books and look it up. It's the scientific standard explanation for the period's economic growth.

 

And here's the kicker: Regan had a recession the year after the tax cut.

https://data.worldba...zg?locations=us


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#980 Rick

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Posted 17 February 2019 - 0640 AM

Not so golden in the Golden State 

 

https://www.edelman....paign=downloads


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