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And We Are Off To The Races

German Elections 2013

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#1461 wendist

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Posted 21 October 2019 - 0151 AM

I think they spelled his name wrong, I think Klaus "Bitterkeit" would be more fitting. :P  :D


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#1462 BansheeOne

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Posted 21 October 2019 - 0303 AM

Good example for something I have long observed: being viciously anti-Merkel was a lefty-Green thing long before it was discovered by the PEGIDA-AfD crowd. :D
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#1463 Panzermann

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Posted 21 October 2019 - 0559 AM

I think they spelled his name wrong, I think Klaus "Bitterkeit" would be more fitting. :P  :D

 

Must be a family trait, hence the name.  ^_^

 

 

Good example for something I have long observed: being viciously anti-Merkel was a lefty-Green thing long before it was discovered by the PEGIDA-AfD crowd. :D

 

Any CDU chancellor has been literally Hitler™ to them.   But with the Greens seeing government participation on the horizon, they do not care with whom. Even accepting Merkel for that sweet black-green coalition. And have turned into a FDP with hybrid-drive SUVs anyway. 


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#1464 Ssnake

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Posted 22 October 2019 - 0144 AM

... the Greens ... have turned into a FDP with hybrid-drive SUVs anyway. 

 

A bigoted FDP maybe in the "do as we say, not do as we do" sense. The FDP at least was consistent in attitude and message. But then again, being at 6% +/-2 for 95% of all election outcomes you can just as well say that about 94% of all Germans rather vote for the illusion of security and (even bad) regulation, rather than for liberty and free markets.


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#1465 BansheeOne

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Posted 22 October 2019 - 0559 AM

Thuringia state elections coming up on Sunday. Last two polls by the public broadcasters diverge a little in stated numbers, but overlap in the 95-percent confidence interval. If the CDU manages to pull past the Left Party as shown by FGW, they actually have a chance at forming a government excluding either the latter and the AfD. Otherwise, things become difficult.

 

th19_umfragen.png


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#1466 Panzermann

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Posted 27 October 2019 - 0607 AM

Interesting how different the forecast for the AfD result is between the two pollsters.


Edited by Panzermann, 27 October 2019 - 0608 AM.

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#1467 Panzermann

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Posted 27 October 2019 - 1323 PM

Looks like 30% for SED PDS Linkspartei in Thuringia in preliminary results. Greens and FDP barely jumping the 5% hurdle and AfD gets a second place at 24% (+14). CDU gets 22§(-10) and SPD 8% (-4).  The ranking won't change much I think with further counting.


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#1468 BansheeOne

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Posted 27 October 2019 - 1359 PM

Current projections indicate the expected stalemate. Left Party with a slight win just below 30 percent, CDU with massive losses mostly for the benefit of AfD, dropping one or two points behind the latter with both in the 22-24 percent range. SPD with further loses at eight to nine. FDP seems to just have managed getting past the five-percent threshold again, the Greens to avoid dropping below it. Turnout up to 66 percent or so.

The current Red-Red-Green coalition has thus lost its majority. They would just win it back if they added the Liberals (touted as R2G2), but unsurprisingly national FDP head Christian Lindner already ruled that out - these are after all the guys who could have gone with CDU/CSU and Greens in Berlin, but didn't. No majority for a CDU/SPD/FDP/Green "Simbabwe" coalition either (which after Jamaica and Kenya would be the ultimate step in the progression of color combinations named after the flags of increasingly disfunctional countries).

There are all sorts of helpful suggestions that the CDU should join the Left, but the former's state head Mike Mohring ruled it out during the campaign, and I can't see it - it would remove any shred of the party's political credibility. They are spared the option of going with the AfD, since they wouldn't have a majority anyway, unless again the FDP joined them. Which is doubly unlikely, since it would require two parties daring to hook up with not just the AfD as such, but Björn Höcke's Thuringian chapter which is just one Kristallnacht this side of the NSDAP.

As mentioned previously, the state constitution doesn't give a limit for the time by which a new government must be formed after elections, and Minister President Bodo Ramelow of the Left could just stay in an acting capacity; or have himself re-elected on a plurality in the state assembly on third attempt and run a minority government. Holger Börner of the SPD did both from 1982 to 1985 in Hesse, so there is precedent. Early elections at some point are still likely though.
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#1469 BansheeOne

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Posted 28 October 2019 - 0254 AM

Whoa, the FDP made the five-percent threshold by five votes according to the preliminary official result. They better hope that's borne out by the final tally.
 
Comparison with latest pre-election polls. Civey was really close this time with their day-to-day internet-based polling, while FGW, usually my go-to pollster, was most off despite their now-usual last survey conducted a few days ahead of the elections. Generally, the Left was underrated, CDU and Greens were overrated, while AfD, SPD and FDP pretty much landed within the predicted margins.
 

          FGW       ITD       INSA      Civey        Actual       Mean deviation



Left      28.0      29.0      28.0      30.2         31.0         - 2.2

 

AfD       21.0      24.0      24.0      23.2         23.4         - 0.4
 
 
 
CDU       26.0      24.0      24.0      22.9         21.8         + 2.4



SPD        9.0       8.0       9.0       8.2          8.2         + 0.4
 
 

Greens     7.0       7.0       8.0       7.4          5.2         + 2.2



FDP        5.0       4.0       5.0       5.0          5.0         - 0.3




Mean Dev.  2.0       1.3       1.6       0.7

Turnout was 64.9 percent, an increase by twelve points over 2014. All parties profited from previous non-voters, particularly the AfD (77,000), Left (47,000) and CDU (31,000); SPD 13,000, Greens 3,000. The Left also gained 20,000 from the CDU,17,000 from the SPD and 8,000 from the Greens, but lost 17,000 to the AfD. The latter gained 36,000 from the CDU, 15,000 from "others" (including the FDP), and 7,000 from the SPD. The CDU also lost 5,000 to the Greens.

 

District results: It didn't help the CDU much they won most of them directly, while the SPD only held on to Gotha II. The rest is rather evenly distributed between Left and AfD.

 

th19e.png

 

http://www.election.....pl?wahlkreis=1


Edited by BansheeOne, 28 October 2019 - 0317 AM.

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#1470 Panzermann

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Posted 28 October 2019 - 0351 AM

There are all sorts of helpful suggestions that the CDU should join the Left, but the former's state head Mike Mohring ruled it out during the campaign, and I can't see it - it would remove any shred of the party's political credibility.

​

 

 

In good old adenauerian tradition (i do not care what i said yesterday) Mohring just declared he'd go with the Linkspartei: https://www.thuering...d227488309.html

 

 

 


They are spared the option of going with the AfD, since they wouldn't have a majority anyway, unless again the FDP joined them. Which is doubly unlikely, since it would require two parties daring to hook up with not just the AfD as such, but Björn Höcke's Thuringian chapter which is just one Kristallnacht this side of the NSDAP.

 

Ah no no no. Landolf Ladig would never do that. He is just a concerned patriot!


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#1471 BansheeOne

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Posted 28 October 2019 - 0436 AM

Landolf Ladig

 

I had to look that up. Is he related to Bernd? :D

 

I'm interested of what will become of Mohring's vague statements. There is of course a range of possibilities to cooperate below a formal coalition - toleration, or just an informal agreement to support certain policies. Again, too much of that would disintegrate the CDU's credibility. Not necessarily in the East, where voter migration shows that "conservative" may often just as well mean "ostalgic"; and in Thuringia in particular, the Left is not particularly hard so. Bodo Ramelow is essentially a (Wessi) Social Democrat, rather tough on deportations, etc.

 

But it's going to look really bad to the (much bigger) Western base, especially the part that thinks the CDU has lost all political distinction anyway, and for which non-cooperation with the Left is essentially the last remaining red line. Even Ramelow would be unpalatable with his recent repeated refusal to call the DDR a "state of injustice" (to avoid pissing off his own Eastern base, of course), strongly condemned by Mohring and others.

 

Reneging on that position might be a minimum condition for any formal support; and of course the latter would be a political risk for the Left, too. Their own hard-left base won't like going with the fascist CDU any more, and they might lose even more Ostalgics to the AfD (which is going to further capitalize on the leftist uniparty narrative, and disgruntled voters from both parties).


Edited by BansheeOne, 28 October 2019 - 0439 AM.

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#1472 Panzermann

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Posted 28 October 2019 - 0600 AM

 

Landolf Ladig

 
I had to look that up. Is he related to Bernd? :D

 

 
Well the clues are strongly pointing towards it being a pseudonym of Höcke under which he wrote articels in Neonazi newspapers. So kind of related, but more serious than a naming mistake, that mutated into a meme.
 
 

I'm interested of what will become of Mohring's vague statements. There is of course a range of possibilities to cooperate below a formal coalition - toleration, or just an informal agreement to support certain policies. Again, too much of that would disintegrate the CDU's credibility. Not necessarily in the East, where voter migration shows that "conservative" may often just as well mean "ostalgic"; and in Thuringia in particular, the Left is not particularly hard so. Bodo Ramelow is essentially a (Wessi) Social Democrat, rather tough on deportations, etc.
 
But it's going to look really bad to the (much bigger) Western base, especially the part that thinks the CDU has lost all political distinction anyway, and for which non-cooperation with the Left is essentially the last remaining red line. Even Ramelow would be unpalatable with his recent repeated refusal to call the DDR a "state of injustice" (to avoid pissing off his own Eastern base, of course), strongly condemned by Mohring and others.
 
Reneging on that position might be a minimum condition for any formal support; and of course the latter would be a political risk for the Left, too. Their own hard-left base won't like going with the fascist CDU any more, and they might lose even more Ostalgics to the AfD (which is going to further capitalize on the leftist uniparty narrative, and disgruntled voters from both parties).

 
Well the voter base of the CDU in the west is closer to pension age than anythign else. So better dead than red is ingrained into them and anything positive about the commie traitors that split the fatherland is out of the question.
 
 
In the former DDR on the other hand, having all political parties neatly put into a block is traditional.  No probelm to return to the old tried and true model. And aren't the ostalgics the true conservatives dreaming of the better times in the DDR?   :D
 

 
 
The FDP guy has come out and proposed a R2G2 coalition (no not a Star Wars™ droid™). rot-rot-grün-gelb consisting of Leftparty, SPD, Greens, FDP. Making for a Knesset like governemnt coalition and probably just as stable.
 
Others call for the Zimbabwe coalition. black-red-yellow-green. Just as knesset stable I bet.  ^_^

 

 

Thuringians live in interesting times. Other elections are going to go similarly in the future. With the old parties clinging together and actually furthering the AfD.


Edited by Panzermann, 28 October 2019 - 0601 AM.

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#1473 Markus Becker

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Posted 28 October 2019 - 2111 PM

"But it's going to look really bad to the (much bigger) Western base, especially the part that thinks the CDU has lost all political distinction anyway, and for which non-cooperation with the Left is essentially the last remaining red line."

There are people who vote for the CDU even though they admit(to themselves) that the CDU "has lost all political distinction"? ... Holy fornication, that party is heading for so much feces that it warms my ex-CDU voter heart. :)
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#1474 Simon Tan

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Posted 28 October 2019 - 2305 PM

The CDU is folliwing its Chancellor to the Twilight of the Pols. A Wagnerian death ride.
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#1475 BansheeOne

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Posted 29 October 2019 - 0241 AM

Well, Mohring's musings about "responsibility to the state for a stable government" were quickly reversed. Thought so.

 

Meanwhile the national SPD is going to have a runoff between the best-scoring of the six remaining couples in their base vote for the next leadership: Vice chancellor Olaf Scholz and former Brandenburg state MP Klara Geywitz (22.7 percent) vs. former NRW state finance minister Norbert Walter-Borjans and Bundestag member Saskia Essen (21.0 percent). Turnout was a rather meager 53.3 percent, and the fact that none of the teams got more than 25 percent - including long-time bigwig Scholz's, which got not much more votes than Walter-Borjans' who is hardly known outside his home state - has been interpreted as indicative of the party's dilapidated condition.

 

Publication of the half-term review agreed in the platform of the grand coalition which was due on 23rd October, and after which the SPD has long talked of deciding whether to continue, has also been postponed into November.


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#1476 Panzermann

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Posted 29 October 2019 - 1600 PM

They could always go for the belgian solution and not form a new governemnt and the old one stays in office for the time being to stop the AfD. this would backfire of course in the next election. :D


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#1477 BansheeOne

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Posted 30 October 2019 - 0449 AM

The meagre-bordering-on-disastrous CDU result in Thuringia has certainly rekindled the leadership debate in the party, particularly in view of who should be the next chancellor candidate. For CDU head Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, this is just the latest in a row of dismal events in her so-far unlucky reign since last year, coming on top of the confused mess she made of her proposal for a European security zone in Syria. The fans of her erstwhile contender for the party lead Friedrich Merz are of course piping up again, with the arguments for and against essentially unchanged.

 

Some others have proposed Bavarian minister president and CSU head Markus Söder, with the helpful suggestion that AKK would certainly have the same sovereignty as Helmut Kohl had when he yielded the candidacy to Franz Josef Strauß in 1979, or Angela Merkel to Edmund Stoiber in 2002. I wonder what they want to say with that, since in either case the Bavarian candidate was defeated at the polls, and the yielding CDU heads got subsequently elected chancellor in early elections.

 

Söder himself has so far stated that he sees his national role in representing Bavaria and the CSU at the federal level. He is not the usual type in both, being a Frankonian protestant, rather liberal by CSU standards, and in charge of a coalition government. The question is whether that speaks for or against what his supporters see in him as a chancellor candidate.


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#1478 Panzermann

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Posted 01 November 2019 - 1115 AM

I just heard that the FDP is one vote away of not making the 5% threshold in TH. which would change the the seat distribution accordingly, if they drop out. Though the general situation would be the same with the AfD on the one side and the rest on the other squabbling who and how to form a coalition. even a all against the AfD coaliton has been proposed, but that would play into the AfD's hands and support their claim that the "old parties" are all one adn the same.


Edited by Panzermann, 01 November 2019 - 1116 AM.

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#1479 BansheeOne

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Posted 09 November 2019 - 0727 AM

After checking every single Thuringia district, the FDP squeaked in with 73 votes over the threshold per the final result. Not that it changes much one way or the other. After some back and forth, like a letter of 17 party members calling for open-ended talks with the AfD, the state's CDU has settled against any cooperation with the former. State head Mike Mohring doesn't seem to have come off as particularly convincing either before or after the elections; he was confirmed as leader of the party's state assembly group with a mere 66 percent in an uncontested vote, abysmal by CDU standards. All questions about the next government remain.

 

Former national AfD co-leader Frauke Petry has also announced that her new "Blue Party" will disband at year's end since they didn't manage to win any seats in either Thuringia or Saxony. It thus goes the expected way of the ALFA/Liberal-Conservative Reformers spinoff AfD co-founder Bernd Lucke established after his ouster. Lucke recently returned to his old job as a professor of economics at Uni Hamburg, where his lectures were promptly blockaded by leftist students.

 

Along with former interior and defense minister Thomas de Maiziere being similarly prevented from holding a book reading in Göttingen by Antifa protesters, which was condemned by all political parties, this has actually triggered a debate on freedom of speech and freedom of science. That didn't happen 20 years ago when I saw events held by the Young Conservatives with then-interior minister Wolfgang Schäuble and his Bavarian colleague Günter Beckstein respectively at Uni Göttingen being prevented by leftists shouting and whistling.

 

Meanwhile the AfD has failed again to get their fourth candidate elected in the never-ending saga of the Bundestag vice speaker position allocated to them. Their MP Stephan Brandner also faces an unprecedented recall vote as head of the legal committee after a string of controversial public statements, including retweeting criticism of "politicians loitering outside synagogues" in solidarity after the recent Halle attack even though only non-Jewish Germans were killed, and calling the award of the federal cross of merit to pop singer Udo Lindenberg a "Judas' reward".

 

That probably didn't help with the election of his colleague Paul Viktor Podolay for vice speaker, either (though the AfD's other two committee heads in parliament are reportedly well-regarded by MPs of other parties). Overall, it seem to be rather stressful times in national politics; this week two members from CDU and the Left respectively had fainting attacks in the chamber, the former while speaking, and the previous week minister of economy Peter Altmaier broke his nose when the same happened to him and he fell down some steps walking off stage after a speech at a public event.


Edited by BansheeOne, 09 November 2019 - 0739 AM.

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#1480 Markus Becker

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Posted 10 November 2019 - 1426 PM

"That probably didn't help with the election of his colleague Paul Viktor Podolay for vice speaker, ..."

You are wrong about that. They have made it crystal clear that they are not going to elect anybody from the AfD, parliamentary regulations be damned.

The interesting part of the position of chair of the legal committee. So far every party got its share of the chairs but that rule is an unwritten one.
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