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1943 Invasion of France?


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#421 RETAC21

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Posted Yesterday, 12:51 PM

So it all boils down to not letting reality bother your play of Axis and Allies
 
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1) Let me point out the obvious, you can't take any major port without major fighting with no surprise, for starters the French had defences for their major base in the Mediterranean: https://books.google... Toulon&f=false

 

2) And an invasion of France is an small fire that will be ignored so he can concentrate in battles that are the further from Germany that one can get?

 

3) Kind of hard to do that unless the convoys go all the way to Sicily before turning North, and that worked just fine previously in 42, see Operation Pedestal for example.

 

4) well, it's good that we established that.

 

5) actually you mentioned paratroopers disrupting rail communications, so let's scratch that too. Helpfully, in real life, the Germans did occupy Vichy, let's see how difficult it was, from the Wiki: "By the evening of 10 November 1942, Axis forces had completed their preparations for Case Anton. The 1st Army advanced from the Atlantic coast, parallel to the Spanish border, while the 7th Army advanced from central France towards Vichy and Toulon, under the command of General Johannes Blaskowitz. The Italian 4th Army occupied the French Riviera and an Italian division landed on Corsica. By the evening of 11 November, German tanks had reached the Mediterranean coast."... "Vichy France limited its resistance to radio broadcasts objecting to the violation of the armistice of 1940" 

So we can be pretty sure the German tanks would get to the coast before the first allied troops start boarding the landing craft, given the need for 3) above

 

Given the need to have all available aircraft carriers at the same time to cover the invasion force from attack, it's going to be a bit difficult to conceal that a a major operation is going on. On the subject of aircraft carriers, the RN adds 2 more to the party, so tactical air support is going to be rather limited, interdiction a mere dream.

 

6) Had that happened, I'd suggest he put down the drink, but this is your fantasy, not mine, so feel free to provide the arguments to defend it yourself and don't hope the rest of the forum to do your homework.

 

7) So we have dropped all non sense re.the Balearics, apparently, now it comes down to Torch without Tunisia (better to allow the Germans to use it unimpeded...) or Husky in Southern France but without air cover because, what can go wrong?

 

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#422 Nobu

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Posted Yesterday, 01:28 PM

By 1943 the most pressing need for Germany was to end one front of the war and put one side out of the fight. As the allies did not come to play, the Soviets were the only option.

 

The ambivalence regarding Citadel that extended up to Hitler was awareness of how unlikely the Soviet option was to provide that desired result.

 

Then again, from Stalin's perspective, anything weakening the Eastern Front in advance of his planned 1943 offensives would be considered a positive, possibly even ideal.


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#423 glenn239

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Posted Yesterday, 03:12 PM

RETAC21 Let me point out the obvious, you can't take any major port without major fighting with no surprise, for starters the French had defences for their major base in the Mediterranean:

 

 

And yet oddly enough the Germans did precisely that.

 

And an invasion of France is a small fire that will be ignored so he can concentrate in battles that are the further from Germany that one can get?

 

 

Perhaps if Hitler wrote a nice letter to Stalin the Russian dictator would call off Uranus and Mars.      

 

3) Kind of hard to do that unless the convoys go all the way to Sicily before turning North, and that worked just fine previously in 42, see Operation Pedestal for example.

 

 

Warships would go all the way to Sicily and Sardinia and commence pre-landing bombardments.  The convoys do not.   The Axis will conclude that Sicily and Sardinia will be the Allied initial objectives.

 

4) well, it's good that we established that.

 

 

Sure thing.

 

5) actually you mentioned paratroopers disrupting rail communications, so let's scratch that too.

 

 

Paratrooper operations do not seem suitable to the task.  

 

Helpfully, in real life, the Germans did occupy Vichy…

 

 

Yes, and the Vichy forces did not fight.   Therefore, they would not fight the Allies either.

 

So we can be pretty sure the German tanks would get to the coast before the first allied troops start boarding the landing craft, given the need for 3) above.

 

 

The Allies reach the beachhead and start their landing on November 8th, the Germans then arrive on November 11th, but the Germans will reach the beach first?    What of the Allied units that landed on the 8th and then immediately pushed up the roads and rails towards the German zone?   And what of the cells organized in Vichy prior to the landing?  

 

Given the need to have all available aircraft carriers at the same time to cover the invasion force from attack, it's going to be a bit difficult to conceal that a major operation is going on. On the subject of aircraft carriers, the RN adds 2 more to the party, so tactical air support is going to be rather limited, interdiction a mere dream.

 

 

The Axis would be aware that a major operation is underway.  They will be led to believe that in the south the landings will be on Sardinia and Sicily, and in the north they will fear a landing in Normandy or Pas de Calais.     

 

6) Had that happened, I'd suggest he put down the drink, but this is your fantasy, not mine, so feel free to provide the arguments to defend it yourself and don't hope the rest of the forum to do your homework.

 

 

You tell King to put down the drink and your next stop would be a court marshal for insubordination.    So again,  it’s June 10th 1942.  King is interested in the preliminaries of an operation in the direction of Toulon and wants you to come up with a plan to deal with the contingency of the French fleet of Toulon challenging an Allied landing.  What’s your answer?

 

7) So we have dropped all nonsense re.the Balearics, apparently, now it comes down to Torch without Tunisia (better to allow the Germans to use it unimpeded...) or Husky in Southern France but without air cover because, what can go wrong?

 

 

7a. Occupation of the Balearics is desirable for securing SLOC.  But not at the cost of war with Spain.  As military planners, the question would go to the diplomats and a clear answer – ‘yes’ or ‘no’ would come back.  If ‘no’, then the non-occupation of the Balearics might be adequate provided the Axis do not occupy it themselves, (unlikely). 

 

7b.  Any feasible Axis SLOC into Tunisia would be enough for defense, not offense.   Wait for the 8th Army to take Libya and then assault Tunisia from two directions in 1943.

 

7c.  In the case of a delay in the landing in Southern France.  Vichy Corsica will be occupied by the Allies simultaneous to Algeria at the time of the first landings.  Sardinia is taken after that as quickly as possible, using air power on Corsica.  Airpower is then built up on both islands, which then provides air cover for Anvil.     


Edited by glenn239, Yesterday, 03:13 PM.

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#424 Brian Kennedy

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Posted Yesterday, 03:34 PM

Recommend that mods kill this thread.
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#425 Rich

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Posted Yesterday, 04:47 PM

I love when stupid gets doubled down on.

 

The specific planning factor might be something along the lines ...

 

Of course, the problem is we don't actually need to guess what the "planning factor might be", we know what it was from the pre-GYMNAST/SUPERGYMNAST/TORCH planning documents. It says nothing about five Frenchmen equalling one German or anything else as asinine as that. Instead, with regards to the quality of the troops:

 

"Moroccan units are considered best for shock troops. They are composed of Berbers, who the French consider the best soldier material to be found in their entire empire. They are natural fighters like the Senegalese, but without the complete dependence on the white officers that marks the latter. Their value as a whole is high, but they have had little or no experience with or against armored units. This is an important factor and must be considered so.

 

Senegalese or colored troops: These men are noted for their bravery, fidelity and natural soldierly qualities. They are extremely willing, fairly intelligent, and get on well with other types of native regiments. Their weak points appear to be inability to grasp or master anything intricate, a natural addiction to drink, which if indulged in- makes them highly dangerous > and the usual weakness of negro troops a pathetic dependence on the white officer in action. They shoot well, learn French fairly easily, and in a few cases, become able to read and write. [Note this is the usual calumny written by American officers advising against the use of "coloreds" as combat troops and in fact was nowhere close to the truth; the French had zero real problems with their Senegalese in North Africa, Italy, or France.0

 

The Foreign Legion is famous for its combat efficiency and bravery in the face of the enemy. Their discipline is excellent and the small amount of punishment necessary to maintain it is in marked contrast with the popular views on the subject.

French troops are also to be given good ratings as to combat efficiency and value. They are intelligent, brave and make excellent fighters when well led. However, their personal initiative is not as high as American troops."

 

The report also notes the problems with morale and divided loyalties to Vichy and anger at the Germans, but noted that "However, it is felt that if ordered "by Vichy to defend North Africa, they would do so against all attackers." Why it would be any different when defending Metropolitan France is anyone's guess. The final, overall assessment of the situation was:

 

"Any marked weakening of the German military situation would undoubtedly have considerable effect on the attitude and morale of tho Northwest African garrisons, as they would then consider that the Vichy Government, being held prisoner by Germany, would not be in a position to make decisions and that Northwest Africa would be loyally trying to shake off the German yoke if they took up arms and received help from the Anglo-Saxon peoples."

 

That is more or less what happened, of course with some of the French command in North Africa partly forewarned that the Allies were coming...somehow I doubt in this scenario Mark Clark would be dispatched to Toulon a month ahead of the invasion of Southern France.

 

 Of course the Germans would react, but between El Alamein, Mars, and Stalingrad/Caucus, they had some pretty big fires distracting them around this period.

 

Magical thinking. Fall ANTON took two days of planning and was executed in a single day when French resistance n North Africa collapsed. German forces reached the Mediterranean coast of France and the Italian 4th Army occupied the Riviera, by nightfall on 11 November. 4th Army began its movement at 2155 10 November.

 

 

The Italians had the 4th Army in the vicinity of the objective, but I do not know its dispositions.

 

Then look. The three corps and nine division of the Italian 4th Army were mostly disposed along the demilitarized zone from the coast to the Swiss border. I CA with 104 Auto.Div.”Mantova” and 105 Auto.Div.”Rovigo”,\ was furthest north and led with the 20 Alpini Sciatori (Alpine skiers), occupying Savoy to the Hautes-Alpes, mainly through the valleys of the Modane and Bourg St-Maurice. XXII CA with 2 Celere Div.”E.F.T.d’Ferro”, 103 Auto.Div.”Piacenza”, 48 (Ital) Inf.Div.”Taro”, and 5 Alp.Div.”Pusteria” was in the center and occupied the Basses-Alpes and upper Alpes-Maritimes. XII CA with 10 Auto.Div.”Piave”, 7 Inf.Div.”Lupi di Tosccana”, and 58 Inf.Div.”Legnano” occupied the coast.

 

 

The Axis will be led to the conclusion...

 

More magical thinking.

 

 

In terms of rail communications, most of the German army in France in 1942 was horse drawn infantry, was it not? 

 

In other words, you don't know and are too lazy to find out, since this is yet another one of your trolling exercises.

 

 

Direct air support is from the carriers.  Tac air staging to airfields in Southern France would be from the UK and the aircraft carriers.  The distance by air from London to Toulon is 550nm.  The Allies had tactical single and twin engine aircraft capable of staging to captured bases at this distance.  The strategic bombers are operating from the UK
All of them.  There is no Watchtower.  The war with Japan is on ice after Midway.  Hornet, Enterprise, Saratoga, Wasp, Ranger, (any overalls required are scheduled to be completed before the operation).  All available British fleet carriers.  All available escort carriers.   If the operation captures the Southern French ports intact and the German army fails to retake them in a counterattack, Germany is in serious trouble.  Now formations could debark directly into French ports from embarkation in the UK and United States.

 

More magical thinking. Not even a smidgen of an attempt at answering Ken's simple observation a few days ago. Instead, like all war gamers it just is counter moving and rolling high dice.

 

 

In Normandy the 15th Army was on the invasion beaches in fortified positions with armored reserves.  In Southern France there is no Axis beach defense or local reserves.  The bulk of the German army in France is horse drawn and cannot arrive anywhere near Toulon in a reasonable timeframe except by rail.  German mechanized elements are fewer than for Overlord, and much further away, and are operating alone, not bolstering an existing fortified line of a dozen fortified divisions.  Axis rail communications in Vichy are unsecured at the outset, so vulnerable to seizure by the Allies,before the Axis can secure them.

 

1. 15. AOK was NOT IN Normandy. Try getting simple facts straight before you begin bloviating.

2. You have zero idea what Axis forces actually deployed to occupy Southern France, so you have zero idea what the condition of beach defenses or local reserves would be. Try getting simple facts straight before you begin bloviating.

3. You have zero idea what the motorization level of the forces assembled for ANTON were. Try getting simple facts straight before you begin bloviating.

4. Axis forces did not occupy Vichy France by rail and German forces did not initially occupy Toulon. Try getting simple facts straight before you begin bloviating.

5. Very evidently you have zero idea what German mechanized elements were available for either "Overlord" [sic] or Anton. Try getting simple facts straight before you begin bloviating.

6. You have zero notion if the "Axis rail communications in Vichy were secure or insecure. Try getting simple facts straight before you begin bloviating.

 

 

Let’s say it's June 10th 1942 and King is interested in this idea from a preliminary feasibility perspective.  He knows the French have a fleet in Toulon asked you to come up with a way to safeguard against this possibility of the French fleet in Toulon.  What would you suggest?

 

Anything other than a lunatic plan relying on magical thinking for execution.

 

 

Spain is an extremely serious calculation mostly because of Gibraltar and the Straights.  There are two scenarios; (a) direct landing in Vichy Southern France sometime in late 1942 or early 1943 or; (b accepting the Axis occupation of Vichy France while securing Algeria, Morrocco, Corsica and Sardinia, then making a direct landings in France in early to mid-1943.  Landings in Sicily and Italy do not occur in this timeframe.  The British 8th Army is left to clean up Libya.  The conquest of Tunisia is left off until the ground conditions are suitable.

 

Straits.

 

British 8th Army was subject to the same real-world logistical limitations as Rommel...and as a result "cleaned up" Cyrenaica and Tripolitania with the three divisions of 30 Corps (7th Armoured, 51st Highland, and 2d New Zealand) they could keep well-supplied. The German-Italian Panzerarmee and later Armeegruppe were forced to retreat from Tripoli 69 days after the end of the 2d Battle of El Alamein due to the threat posed by TORCH and the loss of 21. Panzer to 5. PzAOK, not because of the pursuing British.

 

 

In terms of getting into detailes of force structure, don't you think it better to file the idea and drop it instead?

 

That would certainly help, given you have demonstrated zero knowledge of the actual force structure and have instead substituted magical thinking as your panacea.


Edited by Rich, Yesterday, 04:50 PM.

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#426 Rich

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Posted Yesterday, 04:52 PM

Recommend that mods kill this thread.

 

Why? It exposes the troll for a troll. How is that bad?


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#427 Brian Kennedy

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Posted Yesterday, 05:18 PM

 

Recommend that mods kill this thread.

 

Why? It exposes the troll for a troll. How is that bad?

 

 

LOL probably because I keep clicking on it, but I guess that's my fault :). But IMHO arguing with fantasy-history guys is just pointless because they'll always be able to come back with new scenarios, since by definition it's fantasy.

 

But to be honest, you're feeding him...


Edited by Brian Kennedy, Yesterday, 05:20 PM.

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#428 Rick

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Posted Yesterday, 05:33 PM

Recommend that mods kill this thread.

Just not Rich's posts. Rich is very truthful and informative. Would like to read Ken Estes's views also.


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#429 Rich

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Posted Yesterday, 05:33 PM

See Brian?

 

And yet oddly enough the Germans did precisely that.

 

No they did not. Your ignorance of the subject is showing again.

 

 

Perhaps if Hitler wrote a nice letter to Stalin the Russian dictator would call off Uranus and Mars.   

 

What does your anus have to do with it?

 

 

Warships would go all the way to Sicily and Sardinia and commence pre-landing bombardments.  The convoys do not.   The Axis will conclude that Sicily and Sardinia will be the Allied initial objectives.      

 

I played in a Napoleonic miniatures game years ago where one of the players ordered his cossacks to loot a local village of bed linens so he could hang them from the trees in a wood to conceal his troops behind. This reminds me of that kind of strategic thinking.

 

 

Yes, and the Vichy forces did not fight.   Therefore, they would not fight the Allies either.

 

Actually, they did, both in North Africa against the Allies and in Toulon, against the German coup de main. Your ignorance of the subject is showing again.

 

 

The Allies reach the beachhead and start their landing on November 8th, the Germans then arrive on November 11th, but the Germans will reach the beach first?    What of the Allied units that landed on the 8th and then immediately pushed up the roads and rails towards the German zone?   And what of the cells organized in Vichy prior to the landing?       

 

The actual Axis reaction when the actual Eastern Task Force passed through the Straits the evening of 5 November and morning of 6 November 1942 was to reinforce air bases in Sardinia and Sicily, ready to attack what was initially believed to be a Malta convoy. Once they turned north to the Southern French coast the jig would be up. Given a distance of 870 nautical miles, give or take, and a probable convoy speed of around 12 knots, there would be three days for the Axis reaction...including bucking up Vichy morale.

 

 

The Axis would be aware that a major operation is underway.  They will be led to believe that in the south the landings will be on Sardinia and Sicily, and in the north they will fear a landing in Normandy or Pas de Calais.       

 

Oh, so you are doing ANVIL-DRAGOON and SLEDGEHAMMER at the same time? Where, pray tell, do the landing craft come from if they already concluded they don't have the landing craft?

 

 

You tell King to put down the drink and your next stop would be a court marshal for insubordination.    So again,  it’s June 10th 1942.  King is interested in the preliminaries of an operation in the direction of Toulon and wants you to come up with a plan to deal with the contingency of the French fleet of Toulon challenging an Allied landing.  What’s your answer?     

 

I was waiting for that guy King to show up...Guderian and Manstein can't be far behind.

 

 

7a. Occupation of the Balearics is desirable for securing SLOC.  But not at the cost of war with Spain.  As military planners, the question would go to the diplomats and a clear answer – ‘yes’ or ‘no’ would come back.  If ‘no’, then the non-occupation of the Balearics might be adequate provided the Axis do not occupy it themselves, (unlikely).
7b.  Any feasible Axis SLOC into Tunisia would be enough for defense, not offense.   Wait for the 8th Army to take Libya and then assault Tunisia from two directions in 1943.
7c.  In the case of a delay in the landing in Southern France.  Vichy Corsica will be occupied by the Allies simultaneous to Algeria at the time of the first landings.  Sardinia is taken after that as quickly as possible, using air power on Corsica.  Airpower is then built up on both islands, which then provides air cover for Anvil.

 

Now we have sub-paragraphs of magical thinking. When does your unicorn that farts Good Idea Fairy ideas show up?

 

7a. The "military planners" and "diplomats" developed a "clear answer" by 8 August, roughly two weeks after they began planning.

7b. The 8th Army is unlikely to occupy Tripolitania with a a single corps of three divisions against a reinforced German-Italian Panzerarmee...and they aren't going to even be able to try until 15 January 1943.

7c. Given the Axis will likely have three days preparation and the historical Italian occupation took a day, Corsica is likely to be resisted.

 

Meanwhile, we now have landings on Corsica, Southern France, and Sardinia? With the four-division lift and roughly seven or eight regiment/brigade assault capability you have available, how does that work? BTW, you do realize you initial armored support will be M3 Light Tanks until you secure a port?


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#430 Rich

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Posted Yesterday, 05:35 PM

But to be honest, you're feeding him...

 

I'm feeding him shit to insert in his Uranus. :D


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#431 Rich

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Posted Yesterday, 05:40 PM

 

Recommend that mods kill this thread.

Just not Rich's posts. Rich is very truthful and informative. Would like to read Ken Estes's views also.

 

 

Thank you, but Ken expressed his view more than adequately when he replied to the troll with:

 

"Since you ignore politics and public sentiment, I'll leave it to you to fashion the explanation to the US public in 1942 about how we are leaving the Japanese alone while we settle the real danger, Germany. Good luck!"

 

The troll of course ignored that and continues on with his magical thinking, but it holds true still.

 

Frankly, it might be best if Glen were asked to take his man-bunned, guitar-strumming, cornre durg induced fantasy off to the Alt Alien Space Bats History forum so they can ooo and aaaw over it.


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#432 Brian Kennedy

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Posted Yesterday, 05:48 PM

Well, if you're having fun doing this then by all means keep doing it, and I've learned a lot from your posts. But if you really want him to shut up and go away (I would like it if he would, but my issues with him are more about his strawman bullshit towards me on current-military topics), this is the exact opposite of the way to do that. I mean, just Google the guy, this is his M.O.


Edited by Brian Kennedy, Yesterday, 05:54 PM.

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#433 Rich

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Posted Yesterday, 06:35 PM

Well, if you're having fun doing this then by all means keep doing it, and I've learned a lot from your posts. But if you really want him to shut up and go away (I would like it if he would, but my issues with him are more about his strawman bullshit towards me on current-military topics), this is the exact opposite of the way to do that. I mean, just Google the guy, this is his M.O.

 

Yeah, while irritated at the strawmen and the typical "I can channel people's thoughts, dead or alive" bullshit, I'm also having fun exposing his blatant ignorance on a subject he is so happily pontificating on. I'm simply uninterested in the "play nice" bullshit either, so if I garner some more warning points then so be it. These critters stink up the Internet and it is long past time this Grate Sight gets fumigated.


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#434 Brian Kennedy

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Posted Yesterday, 06:58 PM


Well, if you're having fun doing this then by all means keep doing it, and I've learned a lot from your posts. But if you really want him to shut up and go away (I would like it if he would, but my issues with him are more about his strawman bullshit towards me on current-military topics), this is the exact opposite of the way to do that. I mean, just Google the guy, this is his M.O.

 
Yeah, while irritated at the strawmen and the typical "I can channel people's thoughts, dead or alive" bullshit, I'm also having fun exposing his blatant ignorance on a subject he is so happily pontificating on. I'm simply uninterested in the "play nice" bullshit either, so if I garner some more warning points then so be it. These critters stink up the Internet and it is long past time this Grate Sight gets fumigated.

Lol I think you have zero warning points on this forum. :)
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#435 Rich

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Posted Yesterday, 10:29 PM

 

Lol I think you have zero warning points on this forum. :)

 

 

No, I got four warning points from my last tussle with this creature, which was well worth it. If I collect four more for more honesty, then so be it.


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#436 Ken Estes

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Posted Today, 12:50 AM

It is also incredibly ludicrous to believe that the entire USN CV force, deployed to European waters, would immediately devastate the German and Vichy defenses, followed by the unerring domination of the coasts by its equivalent naval gunfire.

 

Clue in USN aviation training in close air support, or just any air support of ground units before 1944, ditto for USN shore fire skills.

 

ETA: Egad, I forgot his estimation of IJN shore fire skills in 1942 which would topple the defenses of the Hawaiian Islands, perforce. Anything can be done, once imagined?


Edited by Ken Estes, Today, 12:52 AM.

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#437 Rich

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Posted Today, 12:58 AM

ETA: Egad, I forgot his estimation of IJN shore fire skills in 1942 which would topple the defenses of the Hawaiian Islands, perforce. Anything can be done, once imagined?

 

That was actually robdab's lunacy.


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