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Tanker War Redux


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#441 JasonJ

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Posted 11 October 2019 - 0536 AM

Oh.. that's in the red sea this one.


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#442 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 11 October 2019 - 0538 AM

Well, there is a lot of water in the world. They need to reflect on the idea that they can dominate the Gulf, but they arent even a bit player in the rest of the worlds oceans, as the Grace 1 fiasco and this one somewhat illustrates.

 

I suppose the most likely culpret is the Saudi's, it would be a nice payback for the attack on the oil refinery. Somewhat ballsy for them though.


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#443 Adam Peter

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Posted 11 October 2019 - 1400 PM

They have an ally there with a record of proven capability ...


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#444 Josh

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Posted 11 October 2019 - 2114 PM

The UAE is usually the puppet master and the place that handles the more subtle things the KSA is incapable of. MbS has nothing on MbZ.
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#445 Nobu

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Posted 12 October 2019 - 2243 PM

Things just got a little more interesting now that the Saudis have realized they can hurt Iran and Iranians on their own. Planning for a return visit to downtown Ploesti may be in the works.
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#446 glenn239

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Posted 15 October 2019 - 0740 AM

Could be, but I think the safe money is on a Saudi-Iranian détente.  The Saudis were no doubt shocked at the reaction in the progressive West to the murder of Khashoggi, and then shocked again at Trump's reaction to the refinery attack.  They'll probably cool down the situation with Iran while building bridges to Russia and China.  On a related note, Putin is in the Kingdom seemingly pitching that exact message.  For the Iranian part, they're much better off reaching an accomodation with the Saudis than fighting them. 


Edited by glenn239, 15 October 2019 - 0741 AM.

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#447 Nobu

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Posted 16 October 2019 - 1114 AM

It may be too soon to tell, but it looks as if the Iranians have chalked up the missile attack on its tanker as a face-saving gesture on the part of the Saudis, and are treating it as such.

 

This would indeed represent movement toward de-escalation.


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#448 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 16 October 2019 - 1116 AM

There is nothing they can do about it. Anything they do will make it happen more often.
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#449 Nobu

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Posted 16 October 2019 - 1148 AM

That probably is not going to sit well with the Iranians, but it may be a reality they will have to deal with from now on.

 

The question is whether time is on their side or not.


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#450 glenn239

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Posted 16 October 2019 - 1256 PM

The question is what the Saudis are going to do.  There are signs lately theyv'e lost trust in the USA.  CNN here,

 

https://www.cnn.com/...intl/index.html

 

Putin is in the Kingdom now.  We'll see if he gets any arms deals.  


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#451 Nobu

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Posted 16 October 2019 - 1338 PM

Definitely a situation for Japan and Japanese to monitor, as there may be value in learning from the experiences of those currently involved in it.


Edited by Nobu, 16 October 2019 - 1343 PM.

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#452 Josh

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Posted 16 October 2019 - 2309 PM

Nobu, I find you singularly annoying in that you see any tragedy through the experience of Japan as a benefit or loss. It is the same bullshit I dislike with my countrymen. Is your absolute position that anything that benefits Japan is good, regardless of who dies or what morals are forsaken? Because that seems to be the jist of your posts. Not that I think you would notice, but I think I might ignore you. You don't particularly bring anything to the table and you are generally ok with any amount of butchery so long as Japan has a more advantageous position.


Edited by Josh, 16 October 2019 - 2309 PM.

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#453 Nobu

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Posted Yesterday, 12:52 AM

I go with my gut when I post, for better or worse. It is what I feel and believe. I don’t see my perspectives changing anytime soon.

With regard to the morality of them, no offense taken.
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#454 JasonJ

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Posted Yesterday, 01:42 AM

Nobu, I find you singularly annoying in that you see any tragedy through the experience of Japan as a benefit or loss. It is the same bullshit I dislike with my countrymen. Is your absolute position that anything that benefits Japan is good, regardless of who dies or what morals are forsaken? Because that seems to be the jist of your posts. Not that I think you would notice, but I think I might ignore you. You don't particularly bring anything to the table and you are generally ok with any amount of butchery so long as Japan has a more advantageous position.


Well said Josh.

But the thing he often misses that Japan needs very much is international cooperation. If Japan took a blatant "Japan-first" appraoch, then it'll make it harder to get the much needed international cooperation. Unlike Russia and the US, Japan has no energy resources and has developed an allergy to nuclear power. Much less room for error. Throw on top of that Earthquakes and Typhoons.
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