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Tanker War Redux


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#321 Colin

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Posted 20 August 2019 - 2315 PM

Neither Iran or the UK are in a position to hurt each other much. However Iran cannot afford a direct conflict even with the UK. RN warships could operate outside the straits with RAF cover flying from a undisclosed friendly country. those aircraft could very severely damage critical infrastructure and naval stations on the coast. Keep in mind that Iran has had to import much of it's refined fuels, a war footing would drive insurance rates up for ships going to Iran.


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#322 Nobu

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Posted 20 August 2019 - 2341 PM

Gibraltar's refusal to grant Washington's follow-up request to maintain the seizure is interesting for what it cited as the basis for the decision: that U.S. sanctions were not applicable to its or international law.

 

I suspect Washington knew this, but was operating in the same way a car dealership sends out 1500 notices to car buyers informing them that they owe a few hundred in additional fees, on the assumption that 20-50 will send them a check.


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#323 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 21 August 2019 - 0129 AM

watch that tanker sail directly to Syria

 

remember danegeld?

 

 I seem to recall your own President Reagan was not beyond cutting a few sharp deals with Iran to get hostages back, so this criticism strikes me as a little lacking in historical perspective.

 

Australia to send 200 troops, a warship and surveillance aircraft to the gulf.

https://www.dailymai...tes-forces.html


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#324 Daan

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Posted 21 August 2019 - 0506 AM

Did the UK cut a deal then? It looks as if Gibraltar just released the ship with the UK not getting anything in return.


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#325 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 21 August 2019 - 0515 AM

No idea. I think that Gibraltar found itself in a higher game than it thought. It THOUGHT it was upholding EU sanctions so it would perhaps be spared the worst effect's of Brexit. Then it found it was in a superpowers game and wanted out. I suspect the British Government perhaps did give a nod and a wink in the hope we get our ship back. If we dont, well lets put it this way, Iran wont be sending ships this way again. We could stop all of them for inspections if we felt like it.

 

Will we get our ship back? Probably not, no. OTOH, its the easiest way of defusing the crisis which a few weeks ago looked like it was on the brink of war. I would have though the Americans would thank us for that, but clearly thats too much to expect.


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#326 DB

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Posted 21 August 2019 - 0533 AM

I don't care about the ship - it's not ours anyway except as an Isle of Man flagged vessel. I'm more interested in Mrs Zaghari-Ratcliffe and more recently:

https://www.independ...e-a9056786.html

And this one, also.

https://www.independ...n-a9070591.html

Edited by DB, 21 August 2019 - 0536 AM.

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#327 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 21 August 2019 - 0543 AM

Its the precedent more than anything.  If we wont protect ships that are flagged with the United Kingdom, its going to have all sorts of knock on effects, even increased threat from piracy. And it makes the country look all the weaker at a time when its trying to reinvent itself on the world stage.

 

I dont think we are going to get any of them back. In the delusional state Iran is in, all these are legitimate hostages to prevent regime change. For then, its still the high summer of 1952 and Mosaddegh is being deposed. Which is hilarious because I dont believe Mosaddegh would give these jokers the time of day were he still alive.


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#328 Nobu

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Posted 21 August 2019 - 1844 PM

Zachary -Radcliffe will probably be released in the near term, if only to demonstrate Tehran's responsiveness to carrots versus sticks.
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#329 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 22 August 2019 - 0151 AM

No, I dont believe so. They have found a useful bulwark, and they want to remain behind it. After all, after gadaffi, if you give up your methods of leverage, the west isnt to be trusted, right?

 

No, I dont agree with them. Im just trying to see the world in the warped and nonsensical way they do. I dont see them giving any concessions at all.


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#330 JasonJ

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Posted 22 August 2019 - 0553 AM

countdown.jpg

https://www.state.go...ies-areas/iran/


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#331 Nobu

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Posted 22 August 2019 - 1012 AM

No, I dont believe so. They have found a useful bulwark, and they want to remain behind it. After all, after gadaffi, if you give up your methods of leverage, the west isnt to be trusted, right?

 

No, I dont agree with them. Im just trying to see the world in the warped and nonsensical way they do. I dont see them giving any concessions at all.

 

You may very well be right, but the image of Iran in the eyes of Japan and Japanese is not an adversarial one in various ways. I would be surprised if Iran did not respond to Gibraltar's overture in some fashion, if only to offer face to it.


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#332 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 23 August 2019 - 0144 AM

There was an interesting article I posted a couple of months ago about 'Irans Japan dream', that Persia saw Japan as a model of how to remain powerful and yet independent of Colonialists. It still seems they have a soft spot for Japan now, but reject it only because of its close association with the US.

https://www.gateston...ran-japan-dream

 

Japan might just be the country to negotiate a deal, if they feel like it of course. At the moment they seem busy enough with the kitchen crockery being thrown at them by South Korea, and thats fair enough I guess.


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#333 JasonJ

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Posted 23 August 2019 - 0430 AM

Well, even without the kitchen crockery (heh), given that when Abe visited, they shot at a Japanese flagged tanker. I don't think negotiating is possible.

Iran has identified being buddies with DPRK before. Ingredients for bad relations with Iran is possible. And most of Japanese ME oil and gas is not Iranian but KSA and company. Haven't imported any Iranian oil since April.

Edited by JasonJ, 23 August 2019 - 0432 AM.

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#334 Nobu

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Posted 23 August 2019 - 0944 AM

There was an interesting article I posted a couple of months ago about 'Irans Japan dream', that Persia saw Japan as a model of how to remain powerful and yet independent of Colonialists. It still seems they have a soft spot for Japan now, but reject it only because of its close association with the US.

https://www.gateston...ran-japan-dream

 

Japan might just be the country to negotiate a deal, if they feel like it of course. At the moment they seem busy enough with the kitchen crockery being thrown at them by South Korea, and thats fair enough I guess.

 

I remember it, and found it to be representative of Japan/Iran relations for the most part. There is a respect for the cultural lineage and history embodied by the current nation of Iran that rarely if ever makes an appearance in the American conversation regarding it.

 

I would agree that Japan is in a good position to broker an agreement at some point, but the sides do not appear to be ready for one. How much respect Trump has for Japan and Japanese is also a question, raised by the hints he has dropped since the campaign and earlier of a Japan-bashing streak.


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#335 Tim the Tank Nut

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Posted 29 August 2019 - 0806 AM

So did Iran ever release the tanker they were holding?


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#336 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 29 August 2019 - 0811 AM

3 tankers now I think. Nope.


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#337 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 31 August 2019 - 0150 AM

Tanker now reportedly headed to Lebanon. Oh no it isnt, oh yes it is, etc etc.

 

https://www.dailymai...king-there.html


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#338 Colin

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Posted 31 August 2019 - 1806 PM

Hmm the Iranian vessel is slowing, has now turned south at 4.7kts. Steaming North is the Maersk Magellan, a Turkish flagged tanker, this ship has slowed to 1.3kts, basically drifting. A ship to ship transfer? As they are 12nm aparts we will know in 2.5 hrs 

​

​​https://www.vesselfi...om/?imo=9116412


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#339 JasonJ

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Posted 01 September 2019 - 2316 PM

While Japan has made no decision yet about whether or not to send some SDF unit to the ME on a mission related to Iran, but on September 1st, JS Asagiri made a friendly visit to Oman and conducted joint-training with RNOV Al-Seeb at Port Muscat and the nearby waters. Those waters are in the Gulf of Oman and right next to the strait of Hormuz.
https://www.mod.go.j...09/20190902.pdf

Edited by JasonJ, 01 September 2019 - 2316 PM.

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#340 Nobu

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Posted 02 September 2019 - 0326 AM

I am somewhat surprised that Tehran has not released the Stena Impero or Zaghari-Ratcliffe. An opportunity missed on the part of Iran and Iranians, as well as a breach of the etiquette of face, which demands a concession from a rival be reciprocated in turn.


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