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#361 Josh

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Posted 25 August 2019 - 1853 PM

They dont even have enough phibs to take Taiwan by a couple orders of magnitude, IF the Taiwanese are willing to fight it out. They would have to use a lot of civilian shipping and also assume maybe half of those were engaged by missiles or artillery. But of course sans USA, the island could be simply starved to death in the economic, of not literal sense of the word.
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#362 JasonJ

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Posted 03 September 2019 - 0835 AM

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#363 Nobu

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Posted 03 September 2019 - 0850 AM

They dont even have enough phibs to take Taiwan by a couple orders of magnitude, IF the Taiwanese are willing to fight it out. They would have to use a lot of civilian shipping and also assume maybe half of those were engaged by missiles or artillery. But of course sans USA, the island could be simply starved to death in the economic, of not literal sense of the word.

 

Emphasis on "if" noted. When push comes to shove, that willingness would be the wild card.

 

Another would be whether a military dominated by the KMT would obey orders from a president of another party to fight to the last Republic of Chinese man in a dilemma similar to the one faced by Vichy French troops in North Africa in 1942.


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#364 Chris Werb

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Posted 03 September 2019 - 0921 AM

 

They dont even have enough phibs to take Taiwan by a couple orders of magnitude, IF the Taiwanese are willing to fight it out. They would have to use a lot of civilian shipping and also assume maybe half of those were engaged by missiles or artillery. But of course sans USA, the island could be simply starved to death in the economic, of not literal sense of the word.

 

Emphasis on "if" noted. When push comes to shove, that willingness would be the wild card.

 

Another would be whether a military dominated by the KMT would obey orders from a president of another party to fight to the last Republic of Chinese man in a dilemma similar to the one faced by Vichy French troops in North Africa in 1942.

 

 

Those vessels would have to get close enough to an appropriate part of the Taiwanese shore to discharge their troops/amphibious vehicles whatever. The likelihood of that, without a far wider conflict already having ensued is so small as to not warrant discussing this further, but by all means feel free to do so.


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#365 JasonJ

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Posted 03 September 2019 - 1022 AM

They dont even have enough phibs to take Taiwan by a couple orders of magnitude, IF the Taiwanese are willing to fight it out. They would have to use a lot of civilian shipping and also assume maybe half of those were engaged by missiles or artillery. But of course sans USA, the island could be simply starved to death in the economic, of not literal sense of the word.

 
Emphasis on "if" noted. When push comes to shove, that willingness would be the wild card.
 
Another would be whether a military dominated by the KMT would obey orders from a president of another party to fight to the last Republic of Chinese man in a dilemma similar to the one faced by Vichy French troops in North Africa in 1942.
 
Those vessels would have to get close enough to an appropriate part of the Taiwanese shore to discharge their troops/amphibious vehicles whatever. The likelihood of that, without a far wider conflict already having ensued is so small as to not warrant discussing this further, but by all means feel free to do so.

It might be useful to question a scenerio with the US factored out so as to get a sense of requirements for a successful occupation.

And then another factor to determind is the year because the year hypothetical determines PRC strength. Of course trade frictions might slow PRC military power growth to a crawl. But if capabilities keep developing, the difference in military power of a 2020 PRC and a 2035 PRC are going to be as different as night and day.

So then there is the order of battle.

First is bombardment. PRC has many BMs for that, even today.

Then comes air superiority. If bombardment is effective, then even 2020 PRC could achieve air superiority. A 2000 PRC probably couldn't.

Then comes naval blockade. Even 2020 PRC can achieve this. A 2000 PRC probably couldn't do this eirher.

So then comes the actual landing attempt. 2000 PRC certainly couldn't. 2020 PRC has some new assets compared to year 2000, such as 8 Type 71 LPDs. And they have airborne. Still probably not sufficient enough. But if they could make a foot hold, Type 71s and other landing craft have only a short way back to the mainland, fill up on forces, and return to drop them off at the foot hold. Do this several times and force build up on Taiwan could be achieved. Now, what about 2035 PRC? How many Type 75s Amphibious Assualt Ships will they have? Might they make more Type 71s or succerssors to it?
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#366 Josh

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Posted 03 September 2019 - 1055 AM

 

 

They dont even have enough phibs to take Taiwan by a couple orders of magnitude, IF the Taiwanese are willing to fight it out. They would have to use a lot of civilian shipping and also assume maybe half of those were engaged by missiles or artillery. But of course sans USA, the island could be simply starved to death in the economic, of not literal sense of the word.

 

Emphasis on "if" noted. When push comes to shove, that willingness would be the wild card.

 

Another would be whether a military dominated by the KMT would obey orders from a president of another party to fight to the last Republic of Chinese man in a dilemma similar to the one faced by Vichy French troops in North Africa in 1942.

 

 

Those vessels would have to get close enough to an appropriate part of the Taiwanese shore to discharge their troops/amphibious vehicles whatever. The likelihood of that, without a far wider conflict already having ensued is so small as to not warrant discussing this further, but by all means feel free to do so.

 

 

No argument there. I think we talked about this over a decade ago and the general consensus was that it would be like Normandy, only with AShMs and satellite coverage to ruin the surprise and engage the landing force even if it had total sea and air superiority.


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#367 Nobu

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Posted 03 September 2019 - 1220 PM

The threat of Overlord begat the Atlantic Wall in 2 years. Based on the lack of Republic of Chinese defensive preparations on a similar scale thereof in 70 years, they may know something that we don't.


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#368 Chris Werb

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Posted 03 September 2019 - 1433 PM

 

 

 

They dont even have enough phibs to take Taiwan by a couple orders of magnitude, IF the Taiwanese are willing to fight it out. They would have to use a lot of civilian shipping and also assume maybe half of those were engaged by missiles or artillery. But of course sans USA, the island could be simply starved to death in the economic, of not literal sense of the word.

 

Emphasis on "if" noted. When push comes to shove, that willingness would be the wild card.

 

Another would be whether a military dominated by the KMT would obey orders from a president of another party to fight to the last Republic of Chinese man in a dilemma similar to the one faced by Vichy French troops in North Africa in 1942.

 

 

Those vessels would have to get close enough to an appropriate part of the Taiwanese shore to discharge their troops/amphibious vehicles whatever. The likelihood of that, without a far wider conflict already having ensued is so small as to not warrant discussing this further, but by all means feel free to do so.

 

 

No argument there. I think we talked about this over a decade ago and the general consensus was that it would be like Normandy, only with AShMs and satellite coverage to ruin the surprise and engage the landing force even if it had total sea and air superiority.

 

 

Not just that. In the unlikely event anyone tries to get ashore the beach is going to be hit by every artillery and rocket tube within range. Even by the standards of a European nation, Taiwan has a gigantic artillery inventory.  Even a single MBT with line of sight to the landing area would cause mayhem.


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#369 JasonJ

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Posted 03 September 2019 - 1837 PM

They dont even have enough phibs to take Taiwan by a couple orders of magnitude, IF the Taiwanese are willing to fight it out. They would have to use a lot of civilian shipping and also assume maybe half of those were engaged by missiles or artillery. But of course sans USA, the island could be simply starved to death in the economic, of not literal sense of the word.

 
Emphasis on "if" noted. When push comes to shove, that willingness would be the wild card.
 
Another would be whether a military dominated by the KMT would obey orders from a president of another party to fight to the last Republic of Chinese man in a dilemma similar to the one faced by Vichy French troops in North Africa in 1942.
 
Those vessels would have to get close enough to an appropriate part of the Taiwanese shore to discharge their troops/amphibious vehicles whatever. The likelihood of that, without a far wider conflict already having ensued is so small as to not warrant discussing this further, but by all means feel free to do so.
 
No argument there. I think we talked about this over a decade ago and the general consensus was that it would be like Normandy, only with AShMs and satellite coverage to ruin the surprise and engage the landing force even if it had total sea and air superiority.
 
Not just that. In the unlikely event anyone tries to get ashore the beach is going to be hit by every artillery and rocket tube within range. Even by the standards of a European nation, Taiwan has a gigantic artillery inventory.  Even a single MBT with line of sight to the landing area would cause mayhem.

That of course would happen with air superiority using smart bombs and naval blockade established first. First wave invasion attempt might sustain heavy losses of Taiwan concentrates firepower targeting the coast (it could be smarter to position forces for depth of defense). But it would illumniate the artillary for targeted bombing by the PLA Air Force, if not discovered and targeted prior invasion attemp or not destroyed by initial BM bombardment. The PLA can always return to the mainland to pick up more forces for another invasion attempt if the first because of serving as cannon fodder. But also the airborne can land on any suspected arty area or other sensitive locations to further disrupt defenses aimed at the amphibious landing area. As for AShM, the PLA Navy has many small surface ships. 60 Type 56 corvettes and 30 Type 54 frigates can absorb some AShM punishment and screen for the larger Amphibious Assualt related ships.
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#370 KV7

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Posted 03 September 2019 - 1842 PM

 

 

 

 

They dont even have enough phibs to take Taiwan by a couple orders of magnitude, IF the Taiwanese are willing to fight it out. They would have to use a lot of civilian shipping and also assume maybe half of those were engaged by missiles or artillery. But of course sans USA, the island could be simply starved to death in the economic, of not literal sense of the word.

 

Emphasis on "if" noted. When push comes to shove, that willingness would be the wild card.

 

Another would be whether a military dominated by the KMT would obey orders from a president of another party to fight to the last Republic of Chinese man in a dilemma similar to the one faced by Vichy French troops in North Africa in 1942.

 

 

Those vessels would have to get close enough to an appropriate part of the Taiwanese shore to discharge their troops/amphibious vehicles whatever. The likelihood of that, without a far wider conflict already having ensued is so small as to not warrant discussing this further, but by all means feel free to do so.

 

 

No argument there. I think we talked about this over a decade ago and the general consensus was that it would be like Normandy, only with AShMs and satellite coverage to ruin the surprise and engage the landing force even if it had total sea and air superiority.

 

 

Not just that. In the unlikely event anyone tries to get ashore the beach is going to be hit by every artillery and rocket tube within range. Even by the standards of a European nation, Taiwan has a gigantic artillery inventory.  Even a single MBT with line of sight to the landing area would cause mayhem.

 


See also:


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#371 Nobu

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Posted 03 September 2019 - 1846 PM


 


 


 


They dont even have enough phibs to take Taiwan by a couple orders of magnitude, IF the Taiwanese are willing to fight it out. They would have to use a lot of civilian shipping and also assume maybe half of those were engaged by missiles or artillery. But of course sans USA, the island could be simply starved to death in the economic, of not literal sense of the word.

 
Emphasis on "if" noted. When push comes to shove, that willingness would be the wild card.
 
Another would be whether a military dominated by the KMT would obey orders from a president of another party to fight to the last Republic of Chinese man in a dilemma similar to the one faced by Vichy French troops in North Africa in 1942.
 
 
Those vessels would have to get close enough to an appropriate part of the Taiwanese shore to discharge their troops/amphibious vehicles whatever. The likelihood of that, without a far wider conflict already having ensued is so small as to not warrant discussing this further, but by all means feel free to do so.
 
 
No argument there. I think we talked about this over a decade ago and the general consensus was that it would be like Normandy, only with AShMs and satellite coverage to ruin the surprise and engage the landing force even if it had total sea and air superiority.
 
 
Not just that. In the unlikely event anyone tries to get ashore the beach is going to be hit by every artillery and rocket tube within range. Even by the standards of a European nation, Taiwan has a gigantic artillery inventory.  Even a single MBT with line of sight to the landing area would cause mayhem.

Something along the lines of making the charge of the Light Brigade look like a sensible military exercise. At least assuming the Nationalist Republic of Chinese Taiwanese actually fight. Given their track record against both the same opponent and the IJA, that may not be a given in various ways.
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#372 Josh

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Posted 03 September 2019 - 2114 PM

AirPower has never 100% effective. And airborne drops are the only thing even more risky that amphibious landings, plus there the rather large dearth of lift at the current time. The PRC could keep feeding men and equipment into the exercise and I dare say theyd win eventually, but probably not without sustaining a casualty level that would make even the PRC blanch. Theres a lot of men in the tanks who are the only child from their family. Plus gutting your new navy when you have another peer opponent seems like a poor move. It isnt a practical course of action unless Taiwan was somehow existential, and it isnt remotely. Even blockade or bombardment would bring severe economic dislocation assuming the US for whatever reason didnt get involved militarily.
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#373 Mr King

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Posted 03 September 2019 - 2131 PM

Time is on the side of the Chicoms, Taiwan is not going anywhere. It will still be there when they have a serious blue water fleet. 


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#374 JasonJ

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Posted 03 September 2019 - 2236 PM

AirPower has never 100% effective. And airborne drops are the only thing even more risky that amphibious landings, plus there the rather large dearth of lift at the current time. The PRC could keep feeding men and equipment into the exercise and I dare say theyd win eventually, but probably not without sustaining a casualty level that would make even the PRC blanch. Theres a lot of men in the tanks who are the only child from their family. Plus gutting your new navy when you have another peer opponent seems like a poor move. It isnt a practical course of action unless Taiwan was somehow existential, and it isnt remotely. Even blockade or bombardment would bring severe economic dislocation assuming the US for whatever reason didnt get involved militarily.


Of course air power isn't 100%. But it did turn massive amounts of Iraq into scrap. The PLA ground forces aren't going to try and play nice like US coalition in Iraq 2003 and are not going to tie their hands like in the Vietnam War. Taiwan oil and food supply would be at the mercy of PLA forces and naval blockade. Air superiority and BM strikes would knock out much of the critical systems for running a country. PRC has a surplus of men. They can find themselves some Taiwanese women kind of like Vietnamese bride service.
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#375 JasonJ

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Posted 03 September 2019 - 2240 PM

Time is on the side of the Chicoms, Taiwan is not going anywhere. It will still be there when they have a serious blue water fleet.


Yes, time is on their side. The longer this goes, the more dependent Taiwan's security becomes on outside support.

Time can only be reversed if PRC's economy stagnates putting a stop to the current trend of developing power or if Taiwan gets nuclear weapons that are deliveravle to PRC targets. But a nuclear Taiwan would cause all sorts of new geo political problems in the region. ROK would want them, then Japan would want them, then Vietnam would want them. I don't think it is preferrable that Taiwan gets nukes.

Edited by JasonJ, 03 September 2019 - 2241 PM.

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#376 KV7

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Posted 04 September 2019 - 0139 AM

 

Time is on the side of the Chicoms, Taiwan is not going anywhere. It will still be there when they have a serious blue water fleet.


Yes, time is on their side. The longer this goes, the more dependent Taiwan's security becomes on outside support.

Time can only be reversed if PRC's economy stagnates putting a stop to the current trend of developing power or if Taiwan gets nuclear weapons that are deliveravle to PRC targets. But a nuclear Taiwan would cause all sorts of new geo political problems in the region. ROK would want them, then Japan would want them, then Vietnam would want them. I don't think it is preferrable that Taiwan gets nukes.

 

Taiwan persuing nukes would probably prompt a Chinese attack. Agree it is a terrible prospect.


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#377 JasonJ

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Posted 04 September 2019 - 0345 AM

Time is on the side of the Chicoms, Taiwan is not going anywhere. It will still be there when they have a serious blue water fleet.

Yes, time is on their side. The longer this goes, the more dependent Taiwan's security becomes on outside support.
Time can only be reversed if PRC's economy stagnates putting a stop to the current trend of developing power or if Taiwan gets nuclear weapons that are deliveravle to PRC targets. But a nuclear Taiwan would cause all sorts of new geo political problems in the region. ROK would want them, then Japan would want them, then Vietnam would want them. I don't think it is preferrable that Taiwan gets nukes.
Taiwan persuing nukes would probably prompt a Chinese attack. Agree it is a terrible prospect.

Good point, if there's anything that would provoke a bad reaction from China out of Taiwan more than Taiwan declaring independence, it would be news about nuclear weapons development in Taiwan.

Edited by JasonJ, 04 September 2019 - 0346 AM.

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#378 JasonJ

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Posted 04 September 2019 - 0740 AM

A couple of J-10Bs and a J-10A flying with a couple of Thai Gripens.

chnthai1.jpg

 

chnthai2.jpg


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#379 Nobu

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Posted 04 September 2019 - 0810 AM

AirPower has never 100% effective. And airborne drops are the only thing even more risky that amphibious landings, plus there the rather large dearth of lift at the current time. The PRC could keep feeding men and equipment into the exercise and I dare say theyd win eventually, but probably not without sustaining a casualty level that would make even the PRC blanch. Theres a lot of men in the tanks who are the only child from their family. Plus gutting your new navy when you have another peer opponent seems like a poor move. It isnt a practical course of action unless Taiwan was somehow existential, and it isnt remotely. Even blockade or bombardment would bring severe economic dislocation assuming the US for whatever reason didnt get involved militarily.


An airborne assault by a division or thereabouts on Taiwan and its population of 23 million does not sound like a feasible military operation in terms of sheer scale in various ways.
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#380 JasonJ

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Posted 04 September 2019 - 0813 AM

 

AirPower has never 100% effective. And airborne drops are the only thing even more risky that amphibious landings, plus there the rather large dearth of lift at the current time. The PRC could keep feeding men and equipment into the exercise and I dare say theyd win eventually, but probably not without sustaining a casualty level that would make even the PRC blanch. Theres a lot of men in the tanks who are the only child from their family. Plus gutting your new navy when you have another peer opponent seems like a poor move. It isnt a practical course of action unless Taiwan was somehow existential, and it isnt remotely. Even blockade or bombardment would bring severe economic dislocation assuming the US for whatever reason didnt get involved militarily.


An airborne assault by a division or thereabouts on Taiwan and its population of 23 million does not sound like a feasible military operation in terms of sheer scale in various ways.

 

 

Airborne like any other arm forms part of a combined arms operation plan.


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