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Cold War, The Reimagined Series


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#7561 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 12 July 2019 - 0646 AM

Well its a complicated one, in that if they aren't US allies, they aren't Russian ones either. Ive come around to the idea that minimising the potential exposure of F35 is no bad thing, but is it going to be worth it if we end up pushing this clueless bugger into Russia's arms? Probably not.

 

As for a mechanism to withdraw people from NATO, thats a dangerous course I dont want. Because if there WAS, you know Russia would go balls out to try and get us to backtrack from Eastern Europe. More to the point, the American President would be exploiting the same rules to withdraw from defending people he sees no value in, such as Montenegro.

 

Maybe we will get lucky and Erdogan will just get run over by a bus. It seems to me his political career is already on the skids anyway, so he would probably be doing himself a favour.


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#7562 glenn239

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Posted 12 July 2019 - 0711 AM

I personally never wanted Turkey to get the F-35 anyway, so as long as the administration follows through with its threat I'm fine with Turkey having S400s. Quite honestly its a better system than the US offerings anyway.

 

The current administration is dug in on this issue.  If Trump loses in 2020, it's an easy call for a Dem President to reverse.


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#7563 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 12 July 2019 - 0723 AM

Its not. Its Congress that is the one demanding that America blocks the sale of the F35.

http://dailyhellas.c...jets-to-turkey/


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#7564 Josh

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Posted 12 July 2019 - 0749 AM

Well its a complicated one, in that if they aren't US allies, they aren't Russian ones either. Ive come around to the idea that minimising the potential exposure of F35 is no bad thing, but is it going to be worth it if we end up pushing this clueless bugger into Russia's arms? Probably not.

 

As for a mechanism to withdraw people from NATO, thats a dangerous course I dont want. Because if there WAS, you know Russia would go balls out to try and get us to backtrack from Eastern Europe. More to the point, the American President would be exploiting the same rules to withdraw from defending people he sees no value in, such as Montenegro.

 

Maybe we will get lucky and Erdogan will just get run over by a bus. It seems to me his political career is already on the skids anyway, so he would probably be doing himself a favour.

 

I don't see how Turkey could be more in the arms of Russia than it already is without doing something that is very contrary to their interests. I don't think the Erdogang will ally with a Russia playing in the Ottoman part of the world. The one thing I think they would be willing to do is throw US technology to the Russians in return for concessions in Syria or more S400s. So I think keeping F-35 from them is sound.

If The Sultan keeps going down thecurrent path, he will eventually preside over an economically ruined Turkey, in which case he'd be hard pressed to win a legitimate election. I suspect he would simply declare an emergency and stay in power regardless of any election though.


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#7565 Josh

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Posted 12 July 2019 - 0750 AM

Its not. Its Congress that is the one demanding that America blocks the sale of the F35.

http://dailyhellas.c...jets-to-turkey/

 

I don't think the Dems are predisposed to supporting Turkey either. There's not a lot of love for the AKP in Washington regardless of party.


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#7566 glenn239

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Posted 12 July 2019 - 0857 AM

Its not. Its Congress that is the one demanding that America blocks the sale of the F35.

http://dailyhellas.c...jets-to-turkey/

 

Ah - the next administration might not reverse Trump then.


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#7567 JasonJ

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Posted 23 July 2019 - 0722 AM

.


Edited by JasonJ, 23 July 2019 - 0753 AM.

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#7568 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 23 July 2019 - 0728 AM

Thanks for posting this up, I meant to post it up this morning.

 

Sooner or later, its all going to end in someones tears.


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#7569 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 23 July 2019 - 1359 PM

Bit more here.

https://www.thedrive...er-sea-of-japan
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#7570 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 24 July 2019 - 0347 AM

Russia backtracked and apologized over what happened.

https://uk.reuters.c...n-idUKKCN1UJ086

 

So thus far we have seen one Russian aircraft shot down, and one AWAC's apparently coming very close to it. Is it too much to hope someone in the Russian MOD might learn any lessons here?


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#7571 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 24 July 2019 - 0455 AM

According to CNN they have backtracked again, and denied they ever violated South Korean airspace. I guess no learned lessons them.


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#7572 Josh

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Posted 24 July 2019 - 1303 PM

It seems pretty clear by the fact the A-50 went back into controlled airspace and had to be fired upon again that nothing was learned. Though what is curious is why they use such an obvious, expensive asset for that kind of work. They pretty clearly wanted to be as loud as possible this time around.


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#7573 Nobu

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Posted 24 July 2019 - 1406 PM

Russia is correct that no South Korean airspace was violated, as the airspace in question over Takeshima is not theirs to defend.


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#7574 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 25 July 2019 - 0139 AM

Ok, lets not get into that. The South Koreans believe its their territory, and I dont see any reason to give the Russians encouragement to do it again.


Edited by Stuart Galbraith, 25 July 2019 - 0842 AM.

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#7575 JasonJ

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Posted 25 July 2019 - 0840 AM

DPRK launched two short range BMs.

https://www.bbc.com/...d-asia-49107187


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#7576 JasonJ

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Posted 25 July 2019 - 0846 AM

Fat-Kim the Grey inspects new BM sub.

norkBMsub.jpg

https://en.yna.co.kr...190723001600325

 

 

Something like this perhaps:

norkbmsubb.jpg


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#7577 Nobu

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Posted 25 July 2019 - 0854 AM

Ok, lets not get into that. The South Koreans believe its their territory, and I dont see any reason to give the Russians encouragement to do it again.

 

For what it is worth, Kono has clarified Japan's position on the former for the benefit of the Korean government, and the latter for the benefit of the Russian government, in the form of diplomatic protests yesterday. 

 

400 warning shots on the part of the Koreans smells of frustration at one's orders being disobeyed.

 

From Reuters:

 

July 24

 

Japan says it, not S Korea, should have taken action on Russian plane

 

Japan on Tuesday criticized South Korea for taking action against a Russian plane over what Japan says is its airspace, after Japan lodged a protest against both South Korea and Russia over the incident.

 

"Takeshima is Japan's territory," Foreign Minister Taro Kono told a news conference, referring to an island claimed by both South Korea and Japan. South Korea calls the island Dokdo.

 

"It is Japan that should take action against the Russian plane that entered its airspace. It is incompatible with Japan's stance that South Korea takes steps on that," Kono said.

 

South Korean warplanes fired hundreds of warning shots at the Russian military aircraft that entered South Korean airspace on Tuesday, South Korean defense officials said, while Russia denied violating any airspace and accused South Korean pilots of being reckless.

 

The Japanese government has lodged a protest against South Korea and Russia, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said.

 

"In light of Japan's stance regarding sovereignty over Takeshima, the South Korean military aircraft's having carried out warning shots is totally unacceptable and extremely regrettable," the top government spokesman said.

 

"We lodged a stern protest with South Korea and firmly demanded the prevention of a recurrence," he told a regular news conference, when asked specifically about Tokyo's protest against South Korea.

 

Two Russian bombers and two Chinese bombers entered the Korea Air Defense Identification Zone (KADIZ) together early on Tuesday, South Korea's defense ministry said.

 

A separate Russian early warning and control aircraft later twice violated South Korean airspace over the disputed island just after 9 a.m., according to the South Korean military.


Edited by Nobu, 25 July 2019 - 0858 AM.

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#7578 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 25 July 2019 - 0858 AM

You know, its going to be terribly exciting to see Japanese and South Korean warplanes fighting it out for the honour of firing the first warning shot on the next Russian warplane.....


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#7579 JasonJ

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Posted 25 July 2019 - 0900 AM

Russian planes have intruded into Japanese airspace before such as just last month on June 20th.

http://www.tank-net....38972&p=1433707

 

Japanese fighters didn't fire 100s of warning shots. No not even one shot AFAIK.

 

The Russian intrusion into Takeshima was just over some dinky islands yet the South Korean jets vented 100s of warning shots.


Edited by JasonJ, 25 July 2019 - 0900 AM.

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#7580 Nobu

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Posted 25 July 2019 - 0902 AM

There is a danger of such a clash, no question, as emotions on the Korean peninsula are as high as they have ever been, and the South Koreans are as well armed as they have ever been.


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