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#341 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 04 July 2019 - 0458 AM

Stuart, how is Carter's intervention with ROK nuclear program an example of long-term thinking while Bush/Obama/Trump intervention with Iranian nuclear program is not?

 

As for the recognition of the annexation it's more like using the window of opportunity. Arabs can bitch and moan all they want, they need the US far more than the US needs them.

 

Well they had a deal didnt they? And they threw it away, because it was the wrong KIND of deal. Now they are desperately foundering around for another deal and the iranians, entirely predictably, are telling them to go spin on it. That is not exactly long term thinking going on here.

 

 

As for Saudi Arabia getting the bomb, could you see the White house as things stand stopping them getting it? I dont think so.  They would have less concern for regional implications, than ensuring that things just dont fall apart on their watch.


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#342 Mighty_Zuk

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Posted 04 July 2019 - 0658 AM


Stuarti, I think Israel is afraid that the Saudis will use the justification of Iran to build (or rather, purchase) their own nuclear weapons.  And if that happened, then the US and Israelis could not tolerate that either.  So, better to stop it with Iran. 

 
I dont think Israel is afraid of Saudi Arabia. I think (and there is some evidence for this), that Israel wants Saudi Arabia as an ally against Iran. Ironically, the White Houses recent actions have got in the way of that ambition.
 
Being contentious, but if Saudi Arabia ever gets the bomb, It will probably be Israel that gives it to them.
https://www.alaraby....with-challenges

The alliance was made possible because Saudi Arabia is not yet seeking nuclear weapons.
If it will have such ambitions and start acting on them, it that alliance will break.
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#343 Mighty_Zuk

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Posted 04 July 2019 - 0712 AM


Stuart, how is Carter's intervention with ROK nuclear program an example of long-term thinking while Bush/Obama/Trump intervention with Iranian nuclear program is not?
 
As for the recognition of the annexation it's more like using the window of opportunity. Arabs can bitch and moan all they want, they need the US far more than the US needs them.

 
Well they had a deal didnt they? And they threw it away, because it was the wrong KIND of deal. Now they are desperately foundering around for another deal and the iranians, entirely predictably, are telling them to go spin on it. That is not exactly long term thinking going on here.
 
 
As for Saudi Arabia getting the bomb, could you see the White house as things stand stopping them getting it? I dont think so.  They would have less concern for regional implications, than ensuring that things just dont fall apart on their watch.

They lobbied for the deal I described long before the actual deal was signed. The actual deal was bad because it greatly strengthened Iran's conventional military capabilities, which translates to stronger PIJ and Hezbollah.
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#344 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 04 July 2019 - 0722 AM

 

 

Stuarti, I think Israel is afraid that the Saudis will use the justification of Iran to build (or rather, purchase) their own nuclear weapons.  And if that happened, then the US and Israelis could not tolerate that either.  So, better to stop it with Iran. 

 
I dont think Israel is afraid of Saudi Arabia. I think (and there is some evidence for this), that Israel wants Saudi Arabia as an ally against Iran. Ironically, the White Houses recent actions have got in the way of that ambition.
 
Being contentious, but if Saudi Arabia ever gets the bomb, It will probably be Israel that gives it to them.
https://www.alaraby....with-challenges

The alliance was made possible because Saudi Arabia is not yet seeking nuclear weapons.
If it will have such ambitions and start acting on them, it that alliance will break.

 

 

Yet Israel has nuclear weapons, and Saudi Arabia still wants an alliance. Look at it from the perspective that if Saudi Arabia doesn't feel threatened by Israel, then why should Israel feel threatened by Saudi Arabia?


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#345 urbanoid

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Posted 04 July 2019 - 0802 AM

 

 

 

Stuarti, I think Israel is afraid that the Saudis will use the justification of Iran to build (or rather, purchase) their own nuclear weapons.  And if that happened, then the US and Israelis could not tolerate that either.  So, better to stop it with Iran. 

 
I dont think Israel is afraid of Saudi Arabia. I think (and there is some evidence for this), that Israel wants Saudi Arabia as an ally against Iran. Ironically, the White Houses recent actions have got in the way of that ambition.
 
Being contentious, but if Saudi Arabia ever gets the bomb, It will probably be Israel that gives it to them.
https://www.alaraby....with-challenges

The alliance was made possible because Saudi Arabia is not yet seeking nuclear weapons.
If it will have such ambitions and start acting on them, it that alliance will break.

 

 

Yet Israel has nuclear weapons, and Saudi Arabia still wants an alliance. Look at it from the perspective that if Saudi Arabia doesn't feel threatened by Israel, then why should Israel feel threatened by Saudi Arabia?

 

 

Because there's minimal risk of Israel going apeshit, because there's minimal risk of Israeli nuclear weapons falling into the hands of crazies .... I culd go onand on


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#346 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 04 July 2019 - 0808 AM

 

 

 

 

Stuarti, I think Israel is afraid that the Saudis will use the justification of Iran to build (or rather, purchase) their own nuclear weapons.  And if that happened, then the US and Israelis could not tolerate that either.  So, better to stop it with Iran. 

 
I dont think Israel is afraid of Saudi Arabia. I think (and there is some evidence for this), that Israel wants Saudi Arabia as an ally against Iran. Ironically, the White Houses recent actions have got in the way of that ambition.
 
Being contentious, but if Saudi Arabia ever gets the bomb, It will probably be Israel that gives it to them.
https://www.alaraby....with-challenges

The alliance was made possible because Saudi Arabia is not yet seeking nuclear weapons.
If it will have such ambitions and start acting on them, it that alliance will break.

 

 

Yet Israel has nuclear weapons, and Saudi Arabia still wants an alliance. Look at it from the perspective that if Saudi Arabia doesn't feel threatened by Israel, then why should Israel feel threatened by Saudi Arabia?

 

 

Because there's minimal risk of Israel going apeshit, because there's minimal risk of Israeli nuclear weapons falling into the hands of crazies .... I culd go onand on

 

 

Well lets stop and think about that for a moment. Israel wants an alliance with a nation that cannot be relied upon and is going to go apeshit and fall into the hands of Jihadi's. So clearly they DO have confidence in the house of Saud, rather more than I do. You cant occupy two different positions that the Saudi's are reliable and unreliable at the same time. The Israelis clearly trust them far enough to share intelligence. For them, that is a major sea change.

 

Looked at from another point of view, Israel was once allied with Idi Amins Uganda, compared to which Saudi Arabia is a model of stability.


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#347 urbanoid

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Posted 04 July 2019 - 0814 AM

For fucks sake... yes, for tactical reasons both sides want this alliance. It's convenient, it can be terminated at any time. Even if House of Saud is overthrown it's only a relatively minor problem for Israel as compared to overthrowing the House of Saud that has already acquired nuclear weapons. Especially that you don't need that many of them to ruin Israel.


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#348 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 04 July 2019 - 0819 AM

Well im not going to be like some on this grate site and continue to bang out an argument that is disagreed with, but I stand by my point, that if Saudi Arabia got nuclear weapons, Israel would still ally with it. For self evident reasons. You keep your friends close and your enemies still closer.

 

Ill leave it at that.


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#349 urbanoid

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Posted 04 July 2019 - 0821 AM

Yes, it would. Would it PREFER that no other country in the ME acquires nuclear weapons? Even more yes.


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#350 glenn239

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Posted 04 July 2019 - 0916 AM

 

Stuarti, I think Israel is afraid that the Saudis will use the justification of Iran to build (or rather, purchase) their own nuclear weapons.  And if that happened, then the US and Israelis could not tolerate that either.  So, better to stop it with Iran. 

 

I dont think Israel is afraid of Saudi Arabia. I think (and there is some evidence for this), that Israel wants Saudi Arabia as an ally against Iran. Ironically, the White Houses recent actions have got in the way of that ambition.

 

Being contentious, but if Saudi Arabia ever gets the bomb, It will probably be Israel that gives it to them.

https://www.alaraby....with-challenges

 

 

With Britain in 1870 and Belgium in the Franco-Prussian war, they were concerned that the warring powers would, sort of, collude to the occupation of Belgium if one of them did.  Kind of a defacto partition where each of France and Prussia would justify their actions by the actions of the other, and the net result is bye bye Belgium.  With Israel and the Arab bomb, it has to be pretty much the same thing, that if Iran proceeds then the Saudis, Turkey, and Egypt will too.  Hostile yes, but also, an element of mutually supporting justifications.  So, the western position on the Iranian bomb exaggerates the threat to Israel in order to conceal the real concern - sort of a nuclear domino theory.


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#351 glenn239

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Posted 04 July 2019 - 0920 AM

 

 

Stuarti, I think Israel is afraid that the Saudis will use the justification of Iran to build (or rather, purchase) their own nuclear weapons.  And if that happened, then the US and Israelis could not tolerate that either.  So, better to stop it with Iran. 

 
I dont think Israel is afraid of Saudi Arabia. I think (and there is some evidence for this), that Israel wants Saudi Arabia as an ally against Iran. Ironically, the White Houses recent actions have got in the way of that ambition.
 
Being contentious, but if Saudi Arabia ever gets the bomb, It will probably be Israel that gives it to them.
https://www.alaraby....with-challenges

The alliance was made possible because Saudi Arabia is not yet seeking nuclear weapons.
If it will have such ambitions and start acting on them, it that alliance will break.

 

 

Agreed.


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#352 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 04 July 2019 - 0951 AM

Iran has just hauled in the British ambassador to carpet them over the tanker we seized. Payback is a bitch. :)


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#353 glenn239

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Posted 04 July 2019 - 1151 AM

Interesting report here on Israeli F-35's testing (and evading detection by) Iran's S-300 system,

 

https://theprint.in/...s-s-400/257633/

 

Claims here that S-300 was on high alert during recent raid, but not used due to alleged success of S-200 in shooting down 5 out of 6 cruise missiles,

 

https://www.almasdar...nt-used-report/

 

Not sure what to make of that given that the targets aimed for appear to have been hit.


Edited by glenn239, 04 July 2019 - 1153 AM.

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#354 Mighty_Zuk

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Posted 05 July 2019 - 0454 AM

Well im not going to be like some on this grate site and continue to bang out an argument that is disagreed with, but I stand by my point, that if Saudi Arabia got nuclear weapons, Israel would still ally with it. For self evident reasons. You keep your friends close and your enemies still closer.
 
Ill leave it at that.


Israel's alliance with Saudi Arabia is very limited. Even if it is vastly expanded under the Arab Peace Initiative, should the Palestinians accept a peace treaty (or KSA decides to implement it anyway), it would still be one whose military aspect is very easy to terminate.

Israel actively tried to convince the US to avoid selling advanced planes and avionics to Saudi Arabia and its allies, but would agree to them having nukes?
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#355 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 05 July 2019 - 0623 AM

 

Well im not going to be like some on this grate site and continue to bang out an argument that is disagreed with, but I stand by my point, that if Saudi Arabia got nuclear weapons, Israel would still ally with it. For self evident reasons. You keep your friends close and your enemies still closer.
 
Ill leave it at that.


Israel's alliance with Saudi Arabia is very limited. Even if it is vastly expanded under the Arab Peace Initiative, should the Palestinians accept a peace treaty (or KSA decides to implement it anyway), it would still be one whose military aspect is very easy to terminate.

Israel actively tried to convince the US to avoid selling advanced planes and avionics to Saudi Arabia and its allies, but would agree to them having nukes?

 

 

How long ago was that?


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