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Protests In Hong Kong


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#481 Tim the Tank Nut

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Posted Today, 08:11 AM

I am assuming that any difficulties for China improves Japan's position comparatively?

 

by now Japan would be entirely correct to be concerned with the security framework in the Far East.  Taking China down a peg or two would make sense.  Losing the income of Hong Kong would be felt in China.  Since China's economy is probably weaker than people realize losing Honk Kong could be the pebble that starts an avalanche.


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#482 glenn239

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Posted Today, 11:10 AM

I think that might be what Nobu is suggesting, but I didn't see how 1.5 billion people on their doorstep going more militaristic is within Japan's interests.  Has Nobu thought this thing through?  Does he not understand what would happen to Japan if its SLOC were severed in a major war?  Or, maybe Nobu just wants to be entertained in bloodsport?   Japan's interests to me are obviously and quite strongly that the protests will die down, the PLA will not occupy the city, and Hong Kong will continue with its special status.


Edited by glenn239, Today, 11:11 AM.

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#483 Nobu

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Posted Today, 12:17 PM

A political position that keeps Japan and Japanese above the Chinese eggshells of political and ethnic unity does not represent an aversion to seeing them broken.

 

Not staying above them was a lesson in political positioning to be learned from the last century, in which the opportunities gleaned from the crushing of them went unrealized. They will go to those best placed to pick up the pieces.

 

Enter Japan.


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#484 Chris Werb

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Posted Today, 04:09 PM

Given demographic and economic forces vs quality of leadership in both countries, I wouldn't want to bet on China disintegrating before the United States does. 


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#485 Josh

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Posted Today, 04:40 PM

I think China will have a hard time navigating a post Xi government sometime in the future. I suspect the US will muddle through until then. After that Im not taking bets.
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