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And We Are Off To The Races

German Elections 2013

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#1361 Ssnake

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Posted 10 June 2019 - 0909 AM

It's not greedy capitalism if it saves the planet, I guess.  :P


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#1362 BansheeOne

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 1000 AM

Interestingly the Green poll hike, however well-founded in reality, is even extending to East Germany now, where the party is traditionally weak. Surveys this week for the state elections in Brandenburg, Thuringia and Saxony in September/October show them at 10 to 17 percent, sometimes gaining the same rather unbelievable five to seven points.

Since this comes generally at the expense of CDU and SPD, it frequently has the side effect of making the AfD strongest party at 20-25 without much gains of itself. Red-Red-Green looks like a possible result in Brandenburg, but not Thuringia where such a coalition is currently in government. Kenya (CDU/SPD/Greens) might work in all three states, though maybe not in Saxony.

Everybody-but-Left-and-AfD would then be the only alternative unless CDU state minister president Michael Kretschmer actually dares going with one of the latter. He has been airing such thought, and lately made moves that could be interpreted as competing for voters of the populist fringes (most recently speaking out against continued sanctions against Russia after visiting Putin) - or preparing a coalition with one of them.

Meanwhile some people have suggested that the ravaged SPD merge with the Left Party to form a clearly leftist power that would at least get above the 20-percent threshold again. Well, it would be the conclusion of another cycle in the regular splitting and re-unifying of German socialism ...

Edited by BansheeOne, 13 June 2019 - 1001 AM.

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#1363 Ssnake

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Posted 13 June 2019 - 1013 AM

Plus, it'd be two parties merging with a 55+ voter base, not a long-term strategy for winning. You don't create a Marathon champion by tying two people with a limp together.


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#1364 Panzermann

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Posted 14 June 2019 - 1229 PM

The two Green Members of the Bundestag  Tobias Lindner and Cem Özemir take part in a InfoDVAG (dienstliche Informationsveranstaltung; official information event). 
 
 
https://augengeradea...der-bundeswehr/
 
 

 

Yes they get Oberleutnant (O-2) rank for free for the duration of the event.


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#1365 BansheeOne

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Posted 15 June 2019 - 0439 AM

I'm not sure they're the first Green MPs to make use of that opportunity (members of other parties have of course regularly done it), but certainly the most high-profile ones. I have to remark that their FAZ essay entitled "Why Green Foreign Policy Needs the Bundeswehr" is not really a step beyond Green oldtimer (now Pirate) Angelika Beer, who during the Red-Green Schröder administration frequently visited the Bundeswehr as the party's security spokeswoman and told her co-partisans "these are your tanks now"; the improvement is in Özdemir and Lindner not needing to worry they will not be nominated for the Bundestag again because they have turned into "friends of the military". ;)

 

I think I have elaborated on it before, but the AfD is an (inevitable?) perfect mirror image to the early Greens, both in their self-image as an alternative to established political parties and their genesis. Both evolved from new social movements which itself were born out of general discontent with democratic participation and reflection of popular sentiments in the political caste, and of fear of the future.

 

For the Greens, it was the peace, environmental and feminist groups of the 70s/80s, fearing destruction by environmental pollution and nuclear war. For the AfD, it was the Wutbürger and anti-immigrant groups like PEGIDA which reflected the fears of losing identity, established values and wealth through the effects of globalization and left-wing progressivism. Incidentally, both kinds of movements were/are financially and ideologically supported from Russia for contemporary political aims. :D

 

Both parties were/are a type of anti-progressive and dreaming of returning to mythical Good Old Times™; the Greens long were, and in parts remain, opposed to technological progress in general, and essentially longing for pre-industrial conditions of living in harmony with Mother Nature. The AfD is socially anti-progressive, and idealizes a time when supposedly Germany was German, borders were borders, men were men and women were women, nobody bothered us about international responsibility, but still bought our stuff to make us rich.

 

Thorsten Schäfer-Gümbel, one of the SPD's three acting-but-hell-no-I'm-not-going-to-take-the-job-permanently national leaders, kinda made this point this week when he accused the Greens of populism, saying that them reducing the root of everything that's wrong in the world to climate change was no different than the AfD doing the same with immigration. He subsequently had to "clarify" quite a bit that he wasn't equating both parties, just pointing out they had little to say on issues beyond their pet grievances. :D


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#1366 BansheeOne

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Posted 17 June 2019 - 1244 PM

Also concurrently with the European elections, municipal polls were held in half of the German states, with run-offs for mayors and county commissioners yesterday. There were some closely-watched races like in Görlitz, Saxony, where the AfD had the chance to get its first lord mayor post after their candidate came out leading, but short of an outright majority in the first round. There was widespread frowning ahead of the run-off when a number of German and international moviemakers all but suggested to the good citizens that they better don't elect him as this might affect the city's popularity for movie shots (due to its preserved historic old town). It was probably a lot more helpful that the candidates of the Greens and Left Party withdrew from the second round to concentrate support on the runner-up from the CDU, who did indeed win in the end.

Other notable results were a Green winning only the party's third county commissionership in Osnabrück, Lower Saxony, which had previously been held by the CDU ever since WW II; and a Danish citizen becoming lord mayor of Rostock, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as an independent. Overall, the political map of counties and autonomous cities now looks like this:

dw_190616.png

http://www.election....showres_dw11.pl

Edited by BansheeOne, 19 June 2019 - 0409 AM.

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#1367 BansheeOne

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Posted 19 June 2019 - 0426 AM

Angela Merkel got a bit of the shakes while receiving new Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenski yesterday. It was over by the time they walked down the honor guard, but she looked a bit hurried to get it done to me. She later said she hadn't drunk enough liquid before the event. The same happened to her a couple years ago while visiting Mexico. The common denominator would be high temps; while it hasn't been as hot as in recent weeks the last few days here, it's still plenty warm for June.



Health of government figures isn't generally an issue of debate in Germany. However, I'm waiting for the inevitable "Downfall" videos with Hitler's shaking hands on this. :D
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#1368 Ssnake

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Posted 19 June 2019 - 0512 AM

The scene "I have the heart of an elephant" scene in Whoops Apocalypse comes to mind.

 

 

 

 

"It was an honor for the elephant to die for you, Mr. General Secretary!"


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#1369 BansheeOne

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Posted 20 June 2019 - 0606 AM

Interestingly the Green poll hike, however well-founded in reality, is even extending to East Germany now, where the party is traditionally weak. Surveys this week for the state elections in Brandenburg, Thuringia and Saxony in September/October show them at 10 to 17 percent, sometimes gaining the same rather unbelievable five to seven points.

Since this comes generally at the expense of CDU and SPD, it frequently has the side effect of making the AfD strongest party at 20-25 without much gains of itself. Red-Red-Green looks like a possible result in Brandenburg, but not Thuringia where such a coalition is currently in government. Kenya (CDU/SPD/Greens) might work in all three states, though maybe not in Saxony.

Everybody-but-Left-and-AfD would then be the only alternative unless CDU state minister president Michael Kretschmer actually dares going with one of the latter. He has been airing such thought, and lately made moves that could be interpreted as competing for voters of the populist fringes (most recently speaking out against continued sanctions against Russia after visiting Putin) - or preparing a coalition with one of them.


Current projection for Brandenburg districts, again poll leaders on the left and runners-up on the right. There are no "safe" districts, just "probable winners" and "leads".

bb19e_prognose_190618.pngbb19e_prognose_190618_zweiter.png

In Saxony-Anhalt, which goes to the polls in two years again, some CDU types are currently also thinking out loud about a possible future coalition with the AfD, in contradiction of their party's state and national leadership. They note that while not fit to be a partner now, the development between the AfD's radical and economically liberal wing in the next two to five years remained to be seen - though they use a lot of AfD speak to describe alleged commonalities between both parties, which not everyone in their state chapter might agree with.

Personally, I think that timeframe is much too short for the AfD to possibly reverse it's continued slide to the right is has shown throughout its history so far (as I have long opined, it would probably take a temporary almost-drop out of the Bundestag like for the Greens and Left Party for that); and the party's original pro-market wing is particularly marginalized by the nationalist-socialist camp in the East. But then the current CDU coalition proponents are talking of "reconciling the national and the social" in German politics - because that has never gone wrong, of course! Though in fairness, a lot of people have discovered the attraction of tough immigration and lenient welfare politics lately; after the success of the Danish Social Democrats in winning back voters from their domestic right-wingers with that combination, former SPD head Sigmar Gabriel and the party's Bundestag vice speaker Thomas Oppermann suggested the same to their ailing comrades.
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#1370 Panzermann

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Posted 20 June 2019 - 0942 AM

The European Court of justice has ruled the german plans for the so called "foreigner road toll" are illegal. Which was xenophobic populismn anyway (hooking into bavarian dissatisfaction with austrian and swiss road tolls), because only like single digit percent of traffic on German Autobahn are foreign passenger cars. Lorries are much many more and do much more damage to roads. So now our beloved politicans can claim, that "Brussels says so" and that they cannot do anything, but levy a toll from all cars without any car tax rebate for Germans. Hurray. Looking at the success story that the privatized Toll Collect system has been with the lorries. I think they are still in court for compensating the damages for the delays in that project.
 
It is going to be another success of modern German disorganization talent I am sure!


edit: I just read that a day before even Hofreiter of the normally staunchly anti-car Greens has warned of a minus toll that is going to cost more to collect than it brings into the purse. And won't change a thing with car traffic.

https://www.augsburg...id54606456.html

Edited by Panzermann, 20 June 2019 - 1022 AM.

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#1371 Markus Becker

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Posted 20 June 2019 - 1707 PM

Nice seeing the EU being useful. We would have paid too. The toll would have been increased sooner or later and that second and all the following ones would not have been compensated for by a lower car tax. 


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#1372 Ssnake

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Posted 20 June 2019 - 1755 PM

I'm all for a toll that is proportional to the damage inflicted on the infrastructure. Of course, that would mean that a 20t truck would have to pay 40,000 times the price of a regular car.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Not that this would ever happen.


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#1373 TonyE

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Posted 20 June 2019 - 2022 PM

"reconciling the national and the social" in German politics.....

 

:D


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#1374 BansheeOne

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Posted 22 June 2019 - 0550 AM

The two Green Members of the Bundestag  Tobias Lindner and Cem Özemir take part in a InfoDVAG (dienstliche Informationsveranstaltung; official information event). 
 
 
https://augengeradea...der-bundeswehr/

 

BTW, one of the funny snapshots resulting from the Bundeswehr inviting anybody and his uncle for some training: South Korean exchange officer explaining a Marder to a participant of the peek course for civilian leadership figures.

 

Bild%205%201300_popup.jpg


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#1375 sunday

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Posted 22 June 2019 - 0626 AM

 

"reconciling the national and the social" in German politics.....

 

:D

 

 

I see what you did here.


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#1376 BansheeOne

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Posted 29 June 2019 - 0437 AM

Thorsten Schäfer-Gümbel, one of the SPD's three acting-but-hell-no-I'm-not-going-to-take-the-job-permanently national leaders, kinda made this point this week when he accused the Greens of populism, saying that them reducing the root of everything that's wrong in the world to climate change was no different than the AfD doing the same with immigration.

 

Angela Merkel got a bit of the shakes while receiving new Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenski yesterday. It was over by the time they walked down the honor guard, but she looked a bit hurried to get it done to me. She later said she hadn't drunk enough liquid before the event. The same happened to her a couple years ago while visiting Mexico. The common denominator would be high temps; while it hasn't been as hot as in recent weeks the last few days here, it's still plenty warm for June.

Health of government figures isn't generally an issue of debate in Germany. However, I'm waiting for the inevitable "Downfall" videos with Hitler's shaking hands on this. :D

 

Case in point for both of the above. Green national co-head Annalena Baerbock had to apologize after she used Merkel's now-two shake attacks inside ten days as a (somewhat tongue-in-cheek) example for the health impact of climate change in a press conference yesterday. :D

 

There's actually some extent of domestic media coverage on Merkel's possible health issues now - though part of it is puzzled reporting about the much greater foreign interest. And yes, while it had cooled down at the time of the second incident, it has been bloody Virginia-in-August-level hot here recently.


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#1377 Markus Becker

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Posted 29 June 2019 - 0519 AM

For two entire days...wait, you refer to Berlin, don't you. The heat there is their own fault. If the parliament and government were still in Bonn, temperatures in Berlin would be noticably lower. ;)
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#1378 sunday

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Posted 29 June 2019 - 0944 AM

Then there is the environment-friendly HVAC system of the new Reichstag.  :) 

No wonder German politicians working there believe in climate change! 


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#1379 Markus Becker

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Posted 29 June 2019 - 1820 PM

I'm suddenly getting a class 403/406 vibe. The horror, the horror! But even if they used an AC that relies on evil chemicals as coolant, there is still the sheer mass of hot air politics produces. In Berlin that federal, state and city ... you could probably melt polar caps with that.
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#1380 sunday

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Posted 29 June 2019 - 1846 PM

I'm suddenly getting a class 403/406 vibe. The horror, the horror! But even if they used an AC that relies on evil chemicals as coolant, there is still the sheer mass of hot air politics produces. In Berlin that federal, state and city ... you could probably melt polar caps with that.

 

Nope. It is some kind of geothermal system boosted by absorption cycles, but a bit undersized for some extremes of summer heat.

https://www.bundesta...undestag/energy


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