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Meanwhile In The Baltic Republics And Poland...


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#2761 Chris Werb

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Posted 03 November 2019 - 0730 AM

Here is how armour is transfered in Lithuania of between standard gauge and wide gauge.

https://twitter.com/...7490250752?s=09

 

I'm really glad that we aren't relying on easily interdicted forms of transport to move reinforcements to the Baltic Republics :) :) :)


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#2762 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 03 November 2019 - 1048 AM

Chris, you ought to be aware, if these are easily interdicted, someone really ought to tell the Russians. They rely on railways for military transportation far more than NATO do.


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#2763 glenn239

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Posted 04 November 2019 - 0859 AM

Most rail communications are civilian cargoes.  Dunno about Europe, but for Canada rail lines are absolutely vital to the functioning of the economy.  


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#2764 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 05 November 2019 - 0250 AM

Russians believe they are an artery that, based on WW2 experience, they will have to fight to keep open.

 


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#2765 Chris Werb

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Posted 07 November 2019 - 1913 PM

Chris, you ought to be aware, if these are easily interdicted, someone really ought to tell the Russians. They rely on railways for military transportation far more than NATO do.

 

The Russians don't have remotely as far to travel, and they get to choose when and where to kick off.


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#2766 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 08 November 2019 - 0224 AM

 

Chris, you ought to be aware, if these are easily interdicted, someone really ought to tell the Russians. They rely on railways for military transportation far more than NATO do.

 

The Russians don't have remotely as far to travel, and they get to choose when and where to kick off.

 

 

Any offensive into Europe would require reinforcement from forces from the Central and probably the Southern Military district. Ive wargamed it, thats a LONG way to travel. You are probably looking about weeks before they arrive from Central Military district.

 

Of course they could front load under the cover of an exercise, but if they are bringing them in from that far afield, that in itself is something of a lightbulb moment.


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#2767 Rick

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Posted 08 November 2019 - 0525 AM

 

 

Chris, you ought to be aware, if these are easily interdicted, someone really ought to tell the Russians. They rely on railways for military transportation far more than NATO do.

 

The Russians don't have remotely as far to travel, and they get to choose when and where to kick off.

 

 

Any offensive into Europe would require reinforcement from forces from the Central and probably the Southern Military district. Ive wargamed it, thats a LONG way to travel. You are probably looking about weeks before they arrive from Central Military district.

 

Of course they could front load under the cover of an exercise, but if they are bringing them in from that far afield, that in itself is something of a lightbulb moment.

 

Stuart, mildly off topic, but didn't you also wargame the U.S.S. Nimitz vs the Japanese Pearl Harbor strike force?


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#2768 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 08 November 2019 - 0534 AM

 

 

 

Chris, you ought to be aware, if these are easily interdicted, someone really ought to tell the Russians. They rely on railways for military transportation far more than NATO do.

 

The Russians don't have remotely as far to travel, and they get to choose when and where to kick off.

 

 

Any offensive into Europe would require reinforcement from forces from the Central and probably the Southern Military district. Ive wargamed it, thats a LONG way to travel. You are probably looking about weeks before they arrive from Central Military district.

 

Of course they could front load under the cover of an exercise, but if they are bringing them in from that far afield, that in itself is something of a lightbulb moment.

 

Stuart, mildly off topic, but didn't you also wargame the U.S.S. Nimitz vs the Japanese Pearl Harbor strike force?

 

 

No, that wasnt me, but they did do it on CMANO. :D

 

http://www.warfaresims.com/?p=2306

 

I did build a scenario where the 6th Fleet faces off against the 5th Eskadra in 1973, resulting in a slow escalation to nuclear war, including the launching of SS11's from the Urals. But it got a bit big, and ive never actually got around to releasing it because you need something like a supercomputer to run it.


Edited by Stuart Galbraith, 08 November 2019 - 0535 AM.

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#2769 Chris Werb

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Posted 08 November 2019 - 0701 AM

 

 

Chris, you ought to be aware, if these are easily interdicted, someone really ought to tell the Russians. They rely on railways for military transportation far more than NATO do.

 

The Russians don't have remotely as far to travel, and they get to choose when and where to kick off.

 

 

Any offensive into Europe would require reinforcement from forces from the Central and probably the Southern Military district. Ive wargamed it, thats a LONG way to travel. You are probably looking about weeks before they arrive from Central Military district.

 

Of course they could front load under the cover of an exercise, but if they are bringing them in from that far afield, that in itself is something of a lightbulb moment.

 

 

I was talking about the Baltic Republics, which is where those tanks were going. If you are talking about an offensive into Europe, obviously all bets are off and whether 15 of 16 Challengers can get to Estonia or not is utterly irrelevant. You'll be sitting at home in the dark without leccy, internet, landline or mobile coverage (and quite possibly gas and water too) wondering when the next consignment of Sushi will arrive at your local Waitrose. :)


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#2770 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 08 November 2019 - 0753 AM

Well any offensive into the Baltic states would require significant reinforcement. Even 1st Guards Tank Army is in the Moscow area, which is some distance away. I have to question whether they have the roads or the tank transporters to move that many armoured vehicles without using railway lift.

 

The only formations they have in the Baltic area are 76 guards air assault division, mainly light BMD's and only 2 Regiments at the moment, and 2 other mech infantry brigades. There is a Naval infantry brigade from Kaliningrad, and maybe an arctic warfare Brigade up near the Norwegian Border. This is not nearly enough to make an impact on any of the baltic states without substantial reinforcement. Ok, so they have a further division building in Kaliningrad, but its only a division, and if it deploys who precisely defends Kaliningrad?

 

We cant fight there without substantial reinforcement, neither can they best i can tell.

 

Those 16 Challengers are already there. And whilst I admit getting any more there would be far from easy, lets not pretend the Russians reinforcing the area is going to be much easier with Nato special forces busting all the railway bridges and railway lines. They have railway troops for a reason, its their greatest vulnerability.


Edited by Stuart Galbraith, 10 November 2019 - 0227 AM.

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#2771 Chris Werb

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Posted 10 November 2019 - 0820 AM

Well any offensive into the Baltic states would require significant reinforcement. Even 1st Guards Tank Army is in the Moscow area, which is some distance away. I have to question whether they have the roads or the tank transporters to move that many armoured vehicles without using railway lift.

 

The only formations they have in the Baltic area are 76 guards air assault division, mainly light BMD's and only 2 Regiments at the moment, and 2 other mech infantry brigades. There is a Naval infantry brigade from Kaliningrad, and maybe an arctic warfare Brigade up near the Norwegian Border. This is not nearly enough to make an impact on any of the baltic states without substantial reinforcement. Ok, so they have a further division building in Kaliningrad, but its only a division, and if it deploys who precisely defends Kaliningrad?

 

We cant fight there without substantial reinforcement, neither can they best i can tell.

 

Those 16 Challengers are already there. And whilst I admit getting any more there would be far from easy, lets not pretend the Russians reinforcing the area is going to be much easier with Nato special forces busting all the railway bridges and railway lines. They have railway troops for a reason, its their greatest vulnerability.

 

Are we actually upping our commitment to Estonia to include a Company/Squadron size of Challengers or are they just there for an exercise.

 

The thing you're not factoring in is that the Russians are free to move stuff about unimpeded in their own country in peacetime. They can therefore move other units to jumping off positions with zero chance of interdiction. The most NATO would do is faff about arguing about whether to send reinforcements. The Russians are focusing on an exercising rapid mobilisation - when you look at NATO timescales for mobilisation (and I think you posted some yourself a while back) you'll see the situation for NATO over the Baltics is pretty hopeless and that's ignoring the fact that the enemy would have complete initiative, a highly effective, dense and survivable A2AD umbrella to operate under and long range precision munitions targeting every important fixed installation or system deep into NATO's heartland. Besides that, it looks pretty rosy for NATO :)


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#2772 Chris Werb

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Posted 10 November 2019 - 0823 AM

 

I did build a scenario where the 6th Fleet faces off against the 5th Eskadra in 1973, resulting in a slow escalation to nuclear war, including the launching of SS11's from the Urals. But it got a bit big, and ive never actually got around to releasing it because you need something like a supercomputer to run it.

 

 

That's a hell of  range for a wire guided MCLOS ATGW :)


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#2773 Roman Alymov

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Posted 10 November 2019 - 0939 AM

 lets not pretend the Russians reinforcing the area is going to be much easier with Nato special forces busting all the railway bridges and railway lines. They have railway troops for a reason, its their greatest vulnerability.

I think you are grossly overestimating potential of special forces here - especially taking into account amount of explosives needed to significantly damage big railroad bridge is counted in hundreds of kilograms, way above backpack cargo of small group on foot. But what is the need to carry all this heavy loads on foot in XXI century, when they could be delivered with tens of centimeters accuracy by cruise missile or drone?
  Still, i do not see anybody providing plausible scenario for Russia to attack and capture Baltics, the land even local population is not exactly happy with. More pine forests and cold swamps? Thank you, we allready have our own stretching for 11 timezones


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#2774 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 10 November 2019 - 0955 AM

 

 

I did build a scenario where the 6th Fleet faces off against the 5th Eskadra in 1973, resulting in a slow escalation to nuclear war, including the launching of SS11's from the Urals. But it got a bit big, and ive never actually got around to releasing it because you need something like a supercomputer to run it.

 

 

That's a hell of  range for a wire guided MCLOS ATGW :)

 

:D

 

The MRV version was very interesting. I guess they got a longer wire. :)

http://www.themilita...ussia/ss-11.php

 

 

 

 lets not pretend the Russians reinforcing the area is going to be much easier with Nato special forces busting all the railway bridges and railway lines. They have railway troops for a reason, its their greatest vulnerability.

I think you are grossly overestimating potential of special forces here - especially taking into account amount of explosives needed to significantly damage big railroad bridge is counted in hundreds of kilograms, way above backpack cargo of small group on foot. But what is the need to carry all this heavy loads on foot in XXI century, when they could be delivered with tens of centimeters accuracy by cruise missile or drone?
  Still, i do not see anybody providing plausible scenario for Russia to attack and capture Baltics, the land even local population is not exactly happy with. More pine forests and cold swamps? Thank you, we allready have our own stretching for 11 timezones

 

 

You don't need to blow up bridges, you just put a contact detonator on the rail, and blow track up as a train rolls over it. (nothing to stop you doing it on a bridge, for added mayhem). You may not destroy the contents of the train, but there is certainly going to be a logjam whilst they straighten it all out. This is precisely how SOE and the French Resistance operated in WW2, which delayed the arrival of some divisions from the south of France until long past the decision point had been made.

 

There was an interesting example of some French resistance that infiltrated a marshalling yard, and messed up the oil in the axle boxes of some flatbed rolling stock that was due to carry 2SS Panzer Division to Normandy. They were no longer available so they had to drive all the way up from the south of france. They were attritted by SOE and special forces on the way which increased the delay. There was few casualties, it just slowed everything up.

 

Yes, cruise missiles would work. But why expend a cruise missile on a target where you know where it is day after day, and can be interdicted by a single guy with a backpack? A lot cheaper, simpler, and just as much potential to work in the 21st Century. Till someone figures out to protect railway lines 24/7 with drones anyway.

 

The politics doesn't interest me. The potential does. After Ukraine and Georgia there is potential, and to be honest that is all the worries me.


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#2775 Roman Alymov

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Posted 10 November 2019 - 1135 AM

 

You don't need to blow up bridges, you just put a contact detonator on the rail, and blow track up as a train rolls over it. (nothing to stop you doing it on a bridge, for added mayhem). You may not destroy the contents of the train, but there is certainly going to be a logjam whilst they straighten it all out. This is precisely how SOE and the French Resistance operated in WW2, which delayed the arrival of some divisions from the south of France until long past the decision point had been made.

 

There was an interesting example of some French resistance that infiltrated a marshalling yard, and messed up the oil in the axle boxes of some flatbed rolling stock that was due to carry 2SS Panzer Division to Normandy. They were no longer available so they had to drive all the way up from the south of france. They were attritted by SOE and special forces on the way which increased the delay. There was few casualties, it just slowed everything up.


 

Belorussian partisans learned it is not working: Germans quickly invented how to fix blown rail literally within minutes with standard pre-prepared repair set. Yes it was slowing overall traffic rate, but required massive partisan movement with tens and hundreds of thousands of people (number of partisans who got Soviet awards was approximately 184K, with total number estimated about 1 million). Modern Western SOF are too limited in number for that.

 

"can be interdicted by a single guy with a backpack" - Again, "single guy with backpack" will end up in local police office cell. There are strong reasons for SOF to operate in strong  groups and take time to carefully prepare their operations - otherwise  they end up like B20 (real one, not book\movie version).

 

"The politics doesn't interest me. The potential does"   - If you are so worried about potential - any person in so called "civilized world" is living in crosshair of ICBMs, usually more than one. What is making Baltics so special for you? Why not Gibraltar, for example? Or Ireland. or Scotland? Your own country is balancing at the edge of falling apart, but you are worried about frozen swamps on foggy shores of cold sea far waay from you....


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#2776 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 10 November 2019 - 1141 AM

The Baltic States are special for us, because they are our responsiblity. Its also the title of the thread, so perhaps if you have an issue with it, this is not the thread for you.

 

And as for the rail repair, I think you have missed most of what I said. It wasnt the time it took to replace rail, thats easy. Blowing one up under a train and derailing it, not so easy. By way of an example, there was a landslide in scotland about 5 years ago that derailed a Class 66 locomotive. As it turned out, it was proving so difficult to get it out, they just cut it up in situ.


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#2777 Roman Alymov

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Posted 10 November 2019 - 1231 PM

The Baltic States are special for us, because they are our responsiblity.

Like Kurds? :)  How long will it take for another US president to open history books and discover Baltic SS divisions were not exactly landing on Normandy shores alongside US forces? :)  Thanks God this people are no more Russian burden to carry - now they are free to play their ethnic games on own expense, and it is question of time they discover they are actually in the middle of nowhere as old Soviet infrastructure decaying while new Russian infrastructure making their ports and rail redundant. I see no reason to put them on our back again. If they are your responsibility - you could feed them if you want, but now UK is leaving EU indicating your will to feed nations somewhere far away is limited.

 

 

And as for the rail repair, I think you have missed most of what I said. It wasnt the time it took to replace rail, thats easy. Blowing one up under a train and derailing it, not so easy. By way of an example, there was a landslide in scotland about 5 years ago that derailed a Class 66 locomotive. As it turned out, it was proving so difficult to get it out, they just cut it up in situ.

It is standard practice in war time to just push derailed locomotive and cars away from rail size limit to allow other trains to pass freely, or blow them to pieces if needed. Look at standard Russian rail repair train - it carries heavy tractor for that


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#2778 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 11 November 2019 - 0506 AM

WE didnt abandon the Kurds. They only still exist in Iraq because of British Prime Minister John Major. Do some research.


Edited by Stuart Galbraith, 11 November 2019 - 0511 AM.

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#2779 bd1

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Posted 11 November 2019 - 0758 AM

 Thanks God this people are no more Russian burden to carry - now they are free to play their ethnic games on own expense, and it is question of time they discover they are actually in the middle of nowhere as old Soviet infrastructure decaying while new Russian infrastructure making their ports and rail redundant. I see no reason to put them on our back again. If they are your responsibility - you could feed them if you want, but now UK is leaving EU indicating your will to feed nations somewhere far away is limited

 

 

as i look out of my window at the moment i look at (probably part ukrainian) working crews finishing replacing my village central heating pipes. beacuse the old soviet system built in the end of 1980´s was built upon the usual soviet pohhuizm and was probably leading contributor to global warming.  :)​ new central heating will also run on wood pellets since it´s cheaper and is not dependent on highly risky supplier as russia.

and heat price is 25% lower. 

 

meanwhile , as for the new harbours - yes it´s welcome since it´s beneficial to world peace and our hopefully final divorce. as we all seek better future for our children, i for one keep hoping for one where russia has turned mostly it´s back on us and can focus on improving their own life. 

 

lord knows they deserve it, after finishing most important projects , like worlds largest cathedrals and patriot parks , they can finally turn their eyes to minor problems, like spending 12,2 billion roubles building in-door WC-s in russian schools. https://www.interfax.ru/russia/678568   :P​ 


Edited by bd1, 11 November 2019 - 0759 AM.

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#2780 bd1

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Posted 11 November 2019 - 0804 AM

and for the west - if we can keep the peace here for the next 20-30 years, the most problems of the baltic states will go away. local russians by that time will be 2 generations separated from russia and their numbers and percentage  will drop by natural causes to more normal levels. 

 

IF the possible next russian crises , that has been long forewarned , will not appear  (hopefully), in the next 5-6 years , then there is probably no other real threat on the horizon to be seen at the moment


Edited by bd1, 11 November 2019 - 0805 AM.

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