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Security Of Taiwan And Senkaku Islands


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#21 Nobu

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Posted 12 January 2019 - 1942 PM

Ideally, the issue of Japanese sovereignty over the Northern Territories will eventually be resolved in the same manner as the issue of Japanese sovereignty over Senkaku was in 2012, when Tokyo purchased 3 of the Senkaku islands from a private buyer willing to sell to Japan and Japanese. Washington then clarified after this purchase of the territories in question that it would use military force to defend Japanese control of them.

 

This act alone elevates Obama in the eyes of many, especially because Obama and Washington did so without requesting anything from Japan and Japanese in return.

 

The question of Japanese citizenship for current residents of the occupied Japanese Northern Territories is a reasonable one, as many of them have Japanese bloodlines.


Edited by Nobu, 12 January 2019 - 1944 PM.

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#22 JasonJ

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Posted 12 January 2019 - 2051 PM

 

Japanese foreign diplomacy kabuki is wonderful and entirely for domestic consumption.

Now it is spilling into Russian domestic discussion

 

 

Well if I may give an opinion but the presentation style of the hosts leave no room for careful consideration. Anyone that would care to take careful consideration gets mobbed. And there were many points of exaggerations or disinformation that I could spend time addressing.

 

But one thing is that to say that "now" that discussion of the the northern territories is "spilling into Russian domestic discussion" would imply that it hasn't been discussed much before. If to take that as the premise, then it should mean that the Japanese PM saying that the Russian people can continue to live on the islands after the transfer is done and work together with Japanese is something entirely new. To talk more specifically about that is new I think but Japan has had the position of having to return all 4 islands in the past number of years. So I think it would be a natural extension to address what happens to the Russian people in the case that all four islands are returned. But it seems that was not explored at all, either willingly or unwillingly. It certainly could have been something explored by people before just now. But it was also Putin that said that he wanted to get the Peace Treaty signed quickly. So consequently more concrete details are going to rush up front for discussion if running on Putin's suggestion of a quick schedule. Right now Abe wants to find a resolution quickly as well.


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#23 Simon Tan

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Posted 12 January 2019 - 2053 PM

Not going to happen. Japan is not sovreign.
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#24 JasonJ

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Posted 12 January 2019 - 2124 PM

Not going to happen. Japan is not sovreign.

 

Well, the point about Japanese sovereignty is also made in the video Roman posted at 6:20 and the so-called "insider" stated that the situation in the 1950s "characterizes the autonomy of the Japanese foreign policies".

 

To which I have three points.

 

The first point being that that was in the 1950s. Japan was only a decade into reconstruction since being totally devastated thus naturally would be in status of little diplomatic leverage to afford itself. The other thing was that the US was in the middle of a Cold War with the Soviet Union, having just fought against communism in the Korean War a few years prior. So in those circumstances, it would not be surprising to see the US play hard ball. Of course today is very different. Japan is much more developed and has an active diplomatic effort an various areas and sometimes go out of line with the US. I have three examples from the top of my head. One of course is regarding the Senkaku islands in 2012 in which the US took a rather neutral position and was going to just let Japan deal with China on their own, almost like how the US did nothing for the Philippines at Scarborough Shaol in 2012. A second is the CPTPP which Japan took leadership role and expended enormous diplomatic effort in it. A third would be the Takeshima/Dokdo islands since if Japan had no "sovereignty" of Japan (and ROK) then the US would surely find a resolution to that so as to establish stronger trilateral defense relations among the three countries.

 

The second point is that it is only natural that big countries have a lot of influence on other countries. Sometimes it appears that the US is exercising its control over Japanese diplomatic affairs through avenues of sovereignty violation when really it is just simple because the US has a lot of influence to bring to the table. And Japan does have a lot to lose if relations with the US go very bad. Consider how effectively Japanese companies are able to compete in the US market. Their success in the US markets suggests that there aren't controls.

 

The third point is the failure to recognize commonly shared interest of both Japan and the US. Japan themselves are not compelled to be concerned about the security of Taiwan, the situation of the DPRK, the raise of China, etc., by a "bully" US who is pushing Japan in the back. No, Japan has these concerns generated from the heart of Japan itself. And I would think it would be quite embarrassing in having to explain why these concerns are generated in the heart of Japan itself. So I think the young lady at 7:16 should point the direction of her statement "tell them to stop their information campaign" in the opposite direction.


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#25 Roman Alymov

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Posted 13 January 2019 - 0906 AM

 

 

Japanese foreign diplomacy kabuki is wonderful and entirely for domestic consumption.

Now it is spilling into Russian domestic discussion

 

Well if I may give an opinion but the presentation style of the hosts leave no room for careful consideration. Anyone that would care to take careful consideration gets mobbed. And there were many points of exaggerations or disinformation that I could spend time addressing.

 

Unfortunately very few Russian FTA TV programs (not mentioning non-broadcast TV) are translated to English, so i am limited in scope of what i could bring here. Surely this talk show is way more show than talk (as it is prime-time FTA and have to compete for audience against entertainment programs) - but this topic making the way to it is indicative by itself. And i have to note provide space for prominent anti-Russian opposition figures (like in this case Leonid Gozman who was mentioned in my earlier posts http://www.tank-net....38893&p=1279244- by the way also to some extent linked to China, also speaking here by himself https://www.youtube....h?v=k4eV9unFJv4 )
   Calm discussions are usually not translated  - like this one, Kyodo News correspondent Hirohumi Syadzaki (not sure about transcript from Russian, the same remarkably free Russian-speaking Japanese who was asking Putin "How many islands will we get?" , see 1:05:10 here ) discussing Kuril islands issue to Igor Strelkov, famous leader of Slavyansk defense in 2014. It really worth listening to as he is representing views of many Russians (and by the way quite skeptical of current political system in Russia). May be this discussion was somehow reflected  in Japanese press?


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#26 Roman Alymov

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Posted 13 January 2019 - 0922 AM

 


 

But one thing is that to say that "now" that discussion of the the northern territories is "spilling into Russian domestic discussion" would imply that it hasn't been discussed much before. If to take that as the premise, then it should mean that the Japanese PM saying that the Russian people can continue to live on the islands after the transfer is done and work together with Japanese is something entirely new. To talk more specifically about that is new I think but Japan has had the position of having to return all 4 islands in the past number of years. So I think it would be a natural extension to address what happens to the Russian people in the case that all four islands are returned. But it seems that was not explored at all, either willingly or unwillingly. It certainly could have been something explored by people before just now. But it was also Putin that said that he wanted to get the Peace Treaty signed quickly. So consequently more concrete details are going to rush up front for discussion if running on Putin's suggestion of a quick schedule. Right now Abe wants to find a resolution quickly as well.

 

Actually it got very little to do with what Japanese PM said (or not said) but with affairs inside Russia plus foreign attempts to influence it. As for me, it is result of Western political and special services circles finally came to understanding that their plans to use first so called "liberal opposition" (above mentioned Leonid Gozman is example of)  and oligarchs to change political course of Russia failed; so now they are trying to use "patriots" against "Putin"   - and since we see hype waves of "Putin failed to respond to US bombing in Syria", "Putin giving out Donbass", "Putin ready to return Kuril islands to Japan" etc. on regular basis. Often they are driven by liberal press suddenly pretending to be "protecting Russian interests".
    As for me, all this talks about "autonomy of the Japanese foreign policies" as polite way of our diplomacy to postpone saying firm "No" (as  situation in Japan not going to change in any visible future).


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#27 JasonJ

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Posted 13 January 2019 - 1004 AM

 

 

 

Japanese foreign diplomacy kabuki is wonderful and entirely for domestic consumption.

Now it is spilling into Russian domestic discussion

 

Well if I may give an opinion but the presentation style of the hosts leave no room for careful consideration. Anyone that would care to take careful consideration gets mobbed. And there were many points of exaggerations or disinformation that I could spend time addressing.

 

Unfortunately very few Russian FTA TV programs (not mentioning non-broadcast TV) are translated to English, so i am limited in scope of what i could bring here. Surely this talk show is way more show than talk (as it is prime-time FTA and have to compete for audience against entertainment programs) - but this topic making the way to it is indicative by itself. And i have to note provide space for prominent anti-Russian opposition figures (like in this case Leonid Gozman who was mentioned in my earlier posts http://www.tank-net....38893&p=1279244- by the way also to some extent linked to China, also speaking here by himself https://www.youtube....h?v=k4eV9unFJv4 )
   Calm discussions are usually not translated  - like this one, Kyodo News correspondent Hirohumi Syadzaki (not sure about transcript from Russian, the same remarkably free Russian-speaking Japanese who was asking Putin "How many islands will we get?" , see 1:05:10 here https://www.youtube....h?v=YTAtam1lbuQ ) discussing Kuril islands issue to Igor Strelkov, famous leader of Slavyansk defense in 2014. It really worth listening to as he is representing views of many Russians (and by the way quite skeptical of current political system in Russia). May be this discussion was somehow reflected  in Japanese press?
https://www.youtube....h?v=aFTYvJJSW7k

 

 

Yeah, the Putin answer to which as you know I replied to before.

 

About the interview with Strelkov, looks interesting, but can't find something immediately to something specific to Strelkov's opinions about it.


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#28 Roman Alymov

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Posted 14 January 2019 - 0811 AM

More about expected talks (and hype around it)


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#29 JasonJ

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Posted 14 January 2019 - 0904 AM

How about making a new thread for the northern territories Roman?
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#30 Nobu

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Posted 14 January 2019 - 1221 PM

I will say that Abe was hopeful of using a person-to-person approach with Putin to derail progress toward policy convergence between Moscow and Beijing, and to essentially use Russia as leverage against China for the benefit of Japan's national interest.

 

The reaching of an understanding between Abe and Putin on Japanese sovereignty over the Northern Territories would have helped this effort considerably.

 

The best time for the achievement of both of these goals was when Russia was at its most isolated after its Crimea operation, and when Abe broke with Washington to hold the door open for Russia in the face of repercussions.

 

Washington's anger at this independent policy decision made by the MFA for the benefit of the Japanese national interest was palpable in various ways.


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#31 Roman Alymov

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Posted 15 January 2019 - 0911 AM

How about making a new thread for the northern territories Roman?

Up to me it is logical to keep all territorial disputes in one thread, as it is impossible to understand logic of them separately. Unfortunately Strelkov's explanation of his view above was not translated, while he is clearly expressing this link: Any discussions with Japan are useless as long as Japan is close US ally (if not subordinating to US) - and Japan will stay in allied\subordinated relations with US as long as Japan is in bad relations with China (since only US is able and willing to oppose China on Japan side).  Equally, in my opinion,  any "northern territories" issue solution  would potentially harm China, as China need Russia on their side or neutral.
     Anyway, hype around Kuril Islands resulted in public outcry inside Russia (with all signs of it being pumped up by usual suspects who sponsor our liberals) and resulted in unusually tough statement by Russian foreign affairs ministry (who clearly indicated this hype was, as they believe,  not of Japan origin)


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#32 JasonJ

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Posted 15 January 2019 - 0952 AM

I disagree. Consider my participation in this thread to have ended. Feel free to troll it up like the Ukraine thread.


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#33 urbanoid

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Posted 15 January 2019 - 1023 AM

I will say that Abe was hopeful of using a person-to-person approach with Putin to derail progress toward policy convergence between Moscow and Beijing, and to essentially use Russia as leverage against China for the benefit of Japan's national interest.

 

The reaching of an understanding between Abe and Putin on Japanese sovereignty over the Northern Territories would have helped this effort considerably.

 

The best time for the achievement of both of these goals was when Russia was at its most isolated after its Crimea operation, and when Abe broke with Washington to hold the door open for Russia in the face of repercussions.

 

Washington's anger at this independent policy decision made by the MFA for the benefit of the Japanese national interest was palpable in various ways.

You're delusional.


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#34 JasonJ

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Posted 15 January 2019 - 1055 AM

 

I will say that Abe was hopeful of using a person-to-person approach with Putin to derail progress toward policy convergence between Moscow and Beijing, and to essentially use Russia as leverage against China for the benefit of Japan's national interest.

 

The reaching of an understanding between Abe and Putin on Japanese sovereignty over the Northern Territories would have helped this effort considerably.

 

The best time for the achievement of both of these goals was when Russia was at its most isolated after its Crimea operation, and when Abe broke with Washington to hold the door open for Russia in the face of repercussions.

 

Washington's anger at this independent policy decision made by the MFA for the benefit of the Japanese national interest was palpable in various ways.

You're delusional.

 

 

He's not alone. The idea has been pushed around here. Well I think it is a general shortcoming of some Japanese to underestimate the security risks of Russia. But I think it goes very much the same way how many in Europe underestimate the security risks with China. So both sides just being more fixated with whats in their own neighborhood.


Edited by JasonJ, 15 January 2019 - 1056 AM.

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#35 Nobu

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Posted 15 January 2019 - 1221 PM

Equally, in my opinion,  any "northern territories" issue solution  would potentially harm China

 

All the more reason for the reaching of one, and the probable cause of Abe's efforts to do so for the past half decade and counting. Such a solution will need to involve the handover of territory from Russia to Japan in some degree, however, for domestic political reasons.

 

The MFA's decision to hold open the door to a negotiated settlement regarding the Crimea for Russia while the rest of the G7 wanted to close it on the Russian fingers grasping it was a nuanced break from the hardline set by Washington. What is interesting is that this break appears to have been too nuanced for Russia and Russians to recognize, along with the associated opportunity.


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#36 Nobu

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Posted 15 January 2019 - 1224 PM

You're delusional.

 

 

I'd have thought the opposite was true. But you do disapprove.


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#37 Roman Alymov

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Posted 15 January 2019 - 1250 PM


The MFA's decision to hold open the door to a negotiated settlement regarding the Crimea for Russia while the rest of the G7 wanted to close it on the Russian fingers grasping it was a nuanced break from the hardline set by Washington. What is interesting is that this break appears to have been too nuanced for Russia and Russians to recognize, along with the associated opportunity.

Actually this question was to some degree addressed in Hirohumi-Strelkov discussion above: From Strelkov's point of view (and this type of opinion is quite wide-spread in Russia), Japan got nothing to propose to Russia as nation. According to him, "investments" would only bring extra money to corrupt Russian elite bank accounts in Western banks. In his opinion, current activity in talks with Japan is supported by part of Russian elite interested in finding "window" to channel money they loot in Russia to outside world (and joint economic projects on islands is the way for money laundering) .  So when you are talking about " Russian fingers grasping" note that it is not "Russian", but fingers of pro-Western Russian elite totally dependent on West, with assets and families abroad. Cutting this fingers would be applauded by many in Russia.


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#38 Simon Tan

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Posted 15 January 2019 - 2023 PM

I see zero benefit in handing over territory to Japan who can offer nothing to the Russian Federation since it ultimately depends on the United States for its security. It's like trying to buy a house from the tenant. Japanese insistence on territory being handed over and premature fantasies of Russians having to be PR since they are not ethnic Japanese is just grist for the imperialist fanbois. Putin plays along because it is cheap and there's little downside in doing so. Ultimately this is true for almost all the Japanese claims etc. 


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#39 JasonJ

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Posted 15 January 2019 - 2244 PM

I see zero benefit in handing over territory to Japan who can offer nothing to the Russian Federation since it ultimately depends on the United States for its security. It's like trying to buy a house from the tenant. Japanese insistence on territory being handed over and premature fantasies of Russians having to be PR since they are not ethnic Japanese is just grist for the imperialist fanbois. Putin plays along because it is cheap and there's little downside in doing so. Ultimately this is true for almost all the Japanese claims etc.


If saying that then surely the same principle about past empire desires by fanbois applies to the taking of Ukraine territory by Russia. At least Japan uses diplomatic and peace approach unlike Russia.

Of course your assassment about the basis of each territorial claim is also wrong.
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#40 Roman Alymov

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Posted 16 January 2019 - 0059 AM

I see zero benefit in handing over territory to Japan who can offer nothing to the Russian Federation since it ultimately depends on the United States for its security. 

It is almost exactly Strelkov's words: "What use in talking to Japan  when we can talk directly to US?"

 

 

 Japanese insistence on territory being handed over and premature fantasies of Russians having to be PR since they are not ethnic Japanese is just grist for the imperialist fanbois. 

I am asking myself why this was said publically? Without Japanese officials activity,  this story of internal Russian hype seems to be so obviously artificial and so playing against any deal  between Russia and Japan that China sponsoring it can't be ruled out.  But taking into account Japan officials awkward verbal interventions, it seems result of simple incompetence.  Generation of politicians and diplomats who matured believing they are winners of Cold War and can behave as such now reached decision-making positions.....


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