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Hypothetical War : Contest For The Spratleys


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#21 X-Files

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Posted 07 June 2011 - 1231 PM

Good piece on retooled Vietnamese military
http://www.scribd.co...and-Development

*

Eastern Sea (AKA South China Sea) December 2010: World War III starts over a desolate and worthless looking area in the western Pacific Ocean known as the Spratly Islands.

Strategically located between and claimed by Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Brunei, the Spratly Islands are also claimed by distant neighbors China and Taiwan. Located in the middle of major shipping lanes with over-abundant commercial fishing possibilities, the Spratly Islands cause turmoil for an even greater reason: untapped oil and gas reserves.


http://thelastcolumn...pratly-islands/

Edited by X-Files, 07 June 2011 - 1255 PM.

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#22 Guest_JamesG123_*

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Posted 07 June 2011 - 1300 PM

Good piece on retooled Vietnamese military
http://www.scribd.co...and-Development



I still don't think it will come to blows, but were I Vietnam, Indonesia, and even the Philippines forming a defense pact. The PLAN can still crush all three easily enough, but using the subs or fast attack boats to conduct an interdiction campaign against Chinese ports (Privateers! Arrrrg!) to hurt them where it counts is their best strategy.

Its that risk that is likely to prevent an actual conflict. Again, the risks and likely damage to all concerned far out weighs the benefit of owning a a bunch of islands that might get swallowed by the sea any day now according to the Greenies.

Edited by JamesG123, 07 June 2011 - 1303 PM.

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#23 Josh

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Posted 07 June 2011 - 2312 PM

No one in the region has any hope of dealing with the PLAN except the USN. At that point its just a question of whether they would come out and play and how far into the future are we talkin'. Far enough and it seems pretty clear the PRC will achieve local dominance. Near term they have a long way to go. The other locals couldn't hope to deal; they're best bet, if they want to take the risk, would be to run D/Es against Chinese merchant marine in and, if possible, out of theater, particularlly against petro targets. If the USN gets involved, even sans CVs the SSNs would have a field day. If Kilos and Songs are a credible threat to CVNs, then Virginia's are a death sentence to their surface units and merchant marine.

The usual PRC scenario disclaimer; they have nothing to gain by such action; everything is going their way and it would be foolish to even fight a winning war that devasted the local economy, which it would. The PRC would commit to such an action only as a last resort to preserving Party rule over China, and I challenge you to invent a scenario where creating massive economic dislocation on a global scale would *help* that situation.
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#24 Ken Estes

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Posted 08 June 2011 - 0027 AM

The IJN will continue as the dominant navy among the region's members. Its steady but largely unheralded growth reflects long range planning, training readiness and an acceptable learning curve. The value of CVs in areas now well covered by landbased aircraft remains mostly symbolic. Joint warfare skills will pay off best and Japan and Singapore are well ahead of the pack.
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#25 pikachu

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Posted 08 June 2011 - 0041 AM

No one in the region has any hope of dealing with the PLAN except the USN. At that point its just a question of whether they would come out and play and how far into the future are we talkin'. Far enough and it seems pretty clear the PRC will achieve local dominance. Near term they have a long way to go. The other locals couldn't hope to deal; they're best bet, if they want to take the risk, would be to run D/Es against Chinese merchant marine in and, if possible, out of theater, particularlly against petro targets. If the USN gets involved, even sans CVs the SSNs would have a field day. If Kilos and Songs are a credible threat to CVNs, then Virginia's are a death sentence to their surface units and merchant marine.

The usual PRC scenario disclaimer; they have nothing to gain by such action; everything is going their way and it would be foolish to even fight a winning war that devasted the local economy, which it would. The PRC would commit to such an action only as a last resort to preserving Party rule over China, and I challenge you to invent a scenario where creating massive economic dislocation on a global scale would *help* that situation.


Actually, one of Liang Guangli's adjutants made an off-the-cuff remark during the Shangri-La dialogues that the recent escalation of tensions was caused by independent action by the Chinese maritime survey bureau, possibly due to a bigwig somewhere trying to justify his budget. It's under investigation in China right now.

Not many people know this, but several Chinese civilian maritime agencies actually operate small obsolete warships (gunboats and WW2 corvettes) handed down from the PLAN, ostensibly to help protect their fleets from pirates and other maritime miscreants. The fishery agency, for instance, uses their gunboats and corvettes to hunt down illegal fishing boats and harass US survey ships. However, in recent years there have been efforts by the central administration to reorganize the various armed ships operated by the various agencies into a consolidated coast guard command. The agencies involved don't like this one bit partly because many of them have to operate far out into the sea outside the coast guard's jurisdiction, but partly also because the budget for maintaining the warships can traditionally be used as reserve funds for the agency or siphoned off elsewhere. The recent harassment of Vietnamese ships by the Chinese may have been an effort by one agency to create an excuse for keeping their armed ships.
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#26 Corinthian

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Posted 08 June 2011 - 0251 AM

Where to begin...?

Let's see... If I were Tom Clancy, and starting off with Jack Ryan's statement that "[B]esides, the Philippines has the strongest claim on those islands, we'll support them" masturbatory fantasy (see Bear and Dragon shitfest), the US (in a cozy relationship with the Philippines), decides to unload a lot of its Superbugs and Falcons because the JSF is such a Great Success Story™ on the Philippines, at bargain prices (never mind that most of our "modernization budget" is geared to soldiers' housing, uniforms [which explains the large number of varying camo patterns that surpasses that of the US military], and karaoke machines). So, from OV-10s and the flying coffins S.211s (yep, we have them RETAC), Manila gets several squadrons of Falcons and Superbugs, complete with the latest AIM-9 and AMRAAM. We also get OHP FFGs, and (OMG!) M1A1AIM Abrams tanks (plus Bradleys and ZOMG! Gavins!) to strengthen the Philippine Navy and Army respectively. The Philippine MARINES(!) will be given the AAVP-7 too.

So... China, alarmed by the .mil build-up of the Philippines, decides to fly the flag, Varyag-style, in the Spratlys. A (taking a page from Dale Brown's other masturbatory fantasies) Royal Dutch Shell exploration vessel in cooperation with the Philippines, strikes gold (rather oil) in the Spratlys. Varyag is nearby. It strikes, and PLAN MARINES(!) who were disguised as innocent fishermen living in those PLAN structures at Nansha Dao (never mind that those structures have 76mm guns, secure comms, AAA) strike hard and fast at the puny Philippine military outpost at Kalayaan Island.

The PAF, with its 2nd hand 'bugs and Falcons, strike back - with devastating results (for the Philippines). Meanwhile, our .gov contacts the US of A and waves the 50+ or so old Mutual Defense Treaty and says Uncle Sam, we want those who tanked, flew, and marched for Sam and were paided a bonus - plus MARINES(!) - to come help us.

Uncle Sam obliges, seeing that this nekkid aggression by China is, well, nekkid. So CINCPAC sends a couple of SSNs, sinks the entire Varyag fleet and a couple of PLAN subs to boot, all is well, and the Philippines and USA go to bed.

*The End*

Oh, there's a love story somewhere there involving a Filipina and an American (MARINE[!] of course), if Tom Clancy had his way....

<_<


Srsly....

China rules. Vietnam will, IMO, strike back the hardest (but fails), Malaysia will make a half-hearted attempt (sees its claim in the Spratlys as not worth the cost), and Taiwan will look on, saying "We should've been there first!" Philippines will, most probably, raise hell in the UN, making loud speeches on nekkid aggression and wave the MDT before the USA who will, most politely say, "shove it up your ass" to whoever is our Fearless Leader™ at that reality (if it's our current Fearless Leader[TM], he'd probably pave the way for Varyag with a red carpet and wave the PRC flag <_< ).

I really don't think the USA will go to war with China over the Spratlys. Not even send a sub or two to go do some fishing. They'll raise the alarm level, PACFLT ships will be deployed, US forces in Japan and SoKor will be put on alert, but no shooting war between the US and China. A region where ownership of the islands is iffy, State Department will pro'ly say "Well, China has the force to backup their claim, no contesting that." Much like Israel and the Golan, sort of.
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#27 BansheeOne

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Posted 08 June 2011 - 0253 AM

The IJN will continue as the dominant navy among the region's members.


Eh, stuck in the past? :)
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#28 RETAC21

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Posted 08 June 2011 - 0300 AM

Where to begin...?

Let's see... If I were Tom Clancy, and starting off with Jack Ryan's statement that "[B]esides, the Philippines has the strongest claim on those islands, we'll support them" masturbatory fantasy (see Bear and Dragon shitfest), the US (in a cozy relationship with the Philippines), decides to unload a lot of its Superbugs and Falcons because the JSF is such a Great Success Story™ on the Philippines, at bargain prices (never mind that most of our "modernization budget" is geared to soldiers' housing, uniforms [which explains the large number of varying camo patterns that surpasses that of the US military], and karaoke machines). So, from OV-10s and the flying coffins S.211s (yep, we have them RETAC), Manila gets several squadrons of Falcons and Superbugs, complete with the latest AIM-9 and AMRAAM. We also get OHP FFGs, and (OMG!) M1A1AIM Abrams tanks (plus Bradleys and ZOMG! Gavins!) to strengthen the Philippine Navy and Army respectively. The Philippine MARINES(!) will be given the AAVP-7 too.

So... China, alarmed by the .mil build-up of the Philippines, decides to fly the flag, Varyag-style, in the Spratlys. A (taking a page from Dale Brown's other masturbatory fantasies) Royal Dutch Shell exploration vessel in cooperation with the Philippines, strikes gold (rather oil) in the Spratlys. Varyag is nearby. It strikes, and PLAN MARINES(!) who were disguised as innocent fishermen living in those PLAN structures at Nansha Dao (never mind that those structures have 76mm guns, secure comms, AAA) strike hard and fast at the puny Philippine military outpost at Kalayaan Island.

The PAF, with its 2nd hand 'bugs and Falcons, strike back - with devastating results (for the Philippines). Meanwhile, our .gov contacts the US of A and waves the 50+ or so old Mutual Defense Treaty and says Uncle Sam, we want those who tanked, flew, and marched for Sam and were paided a bonus - plus MARINES(!) - to come help us.

Uncle Sam obliges, seeing that this nekkid aggression by China is, well, nekkid. So CINCPAC sends a couple of SSNs, sinks the entire Varyag fleet and a couple of PLAN subs to boot, all is well, and the Philippines and USA go to bed.

*The End*


Ejem, your scenario is almost believable and technically very accurate, but you forgot to add Sparky's Fuctards and of course, the M47s of the Kitsap militia that were left in Vietnam, you think the slant eyes are not going to send their latest technology


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#29 Corinthian

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Posted 08 June 2011 - 0308 AM

Ejem, your scenario is almost believable and technically very accurate, but you forgot to add Sparky's Fuctards and of course, the M47s of the Kitsap militia that were left in Vietnam, you think the slant eyes are not going to send their latest technology


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#30 Yama

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Posted 08 June 2011 - 0311 AM

The IJN will continue as the dominant navy among the region's members.


Dear Lord, hope not...
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#31 Marek Tucan

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Posted 08 June 2011 - 0333 AM

Ahem, Tomas, Clancy already wrote a masturbatory fantasy about conflict for the Spratlys. Hate to tell it to you, but no marines, superbugs etc. were needed - the entire conflict was solved by sinking PLAN navy, including a Typhoon and few Akulas on lease from Russia with crews (this was before he switched to "Russians are nice guys because they are lead by ex-KGB eminence grease and friend of Jack Ryan now")... by one US SSN.

:P
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#32 RETAC21

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Posted 08 June 2011 - 0339 AM

Imaginatively named SSN - IŽll send my copy anywhere in the World for free if the receiver promises not to return it
Posted Image


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#33 Simon Tan

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Posted 08 June 2011 - 0349 AM

Huh? Any push on permanent sovereignty in the Spratlys will require the capture of the largest 'island' in the area of dispute, the lonely but quite lovely Swallow Reef (Pulau Layang-layang)that is occupied by Malaysia. Not only occupied but occupied in style since it has an air strip and hotel.

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#34 Ken Estes

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Posted 08 June 2011 - 0356 AM

I can only imagine what lovelies it must harbor....
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#35 Simon Tan

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Posted 08 June 2011 - 0416 AM

No Ken, you cannot since you have not a clue as to Layang-layang and how it came to be.
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#36 Marek Tucan

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Posted 08 June 2011 - 0434 AM

Imaginatively named SSN - IŽll send my copy anywhere in the World for free if the receiver promises not to return it
Posted Image



It's a trap!


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#37 jakec

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Posted 08 June 2011 - 0438 AM

Thats what was pretty bad wasnt it? :D

OTOH, I think one of Patrick Robinsons was even worse.


I have a Dale Brown SCS novel as well: 'Sky Masters'.
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#38 RETAC21

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Posted 08 June 2011 - 0536 AM

Thats what was pretty bad wasnt it? Posted Image

OTOH, I think one of Patrick Robinsons was even worse.



Bad doesn't start to describe it...just note the 701 copies available from 0.01 cents... And you have already seen the best part of the book, the art on the cover.
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#39 TonyE

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Posted 08 June 2011 - 0557 AM

Posted Image


Wow! Sprawling Spratleys! :blink:
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#40 swerve

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Posted 08 June 2011 - 0733 AM

U're welcome. :P

Ok,

Chinese corporations move into the Islands with gas drilling equipment, start building airfields and tourist resorts. Large numbers of "volenteer" Chinese national "civilians" migrate to strategic islands complete with prefabricated housing and Walmarts.

Not enough space. Do you realise how small these islands are? Most of 'em are just rocks, reefs or shoals. There are hundreds of 'em, & the total area is estimated at less than 5 sq km. The largest is 46 hectares (0.46 sq km). The Malaysian one with a diving resort (see Simon Tan's post with picture) had to be enlarged to build a runway. Like the others with airstrips, building it hasn't left much land spare for housing & Walmarts.

They're going to end up as a series of airstrips, with no land left over for living on.
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