Jump to content


Photo

Turn Of Year 2015/16 At Cologne Train Station


  • Please log in to reply
446 replies to this topic

#21 urbanoid

urbanoid

    Crew

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 5,412 posts

Posted 14 July 2016 - 0621 AM

My bad for only reading the top. :P


  • 0

#22 BansheeOne

BansheeOne

    Bullshit filter overload, venting into civility charger

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 14,283 posts

Posted 14 July 2016 - 0754 AM

For good measure, I might as well add where Germans emigrated: Switzerland 18,300, US 13,400, Austria 10,200, UK 8,900, Turkey 6,800, Spain 6,200, France 5,900, Poland 5,500, Australia 3,500, Netherlands 3,400, Greece 2,900, China 2,700, Italy and Russia 2,300 each, Canada 2,200, Belgium 2,100, Sweden 1,800, Thailand 1,700, UAE 1,500, Denmark, Brazil and New Zealand 1,300 each, Norway 1,200, Ireland and Iraq 1,000 each. There were also 6,600 "unkown destinations".


  • 0

#23 Mr King

Mr King

    Fat Body

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 19,418 posts

Posted 14 July 2016 - 1111 AM

For good measure, I might as well add where Germans emigrated: Switzerland 18,300, US 13,400, Austria 10,200, UK 8,900, Turkey 6,800, Spain 6,200, France 5,900, Poland 5,500, Australia 3,500, Netherlands 3,400, Greece 2,900, China 2,700, Italy and Russia 2,300 each, Canada 2,200, Belgium 2,100, Sweden 1,800, Thailand 1,700, UAE 1,500, Denmark, Brazil and New Zealand 1,300 each, Norway 1,200, Ireland and Iraq 1,000 each. There were also 6,600 "unkown destinations".

 

Got to keep those moon bases supplied with fresh faces. 


  • 0

#24 Mobius

Mobius

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 5,826 posts

Posted 14 July 2016 - 1122 AM

For good measure, I might as well add where Germans emigrated: Switzerland 18,300, US 13,400, Austria 10,200, UK 8,900, Turkey 6,800, Spain 6,200, France 5,900, Poland 5,500, Australia 3,500, Netherlands 3,400, Greece 2,900, China 2,700, Italy and Russia 2,300 each, Canada 2,200, Belgium 2,100, Sweden 1,800, Thailand 1,700, UAE 1,500, Denmark, Brazil and New Zealand 1,300 each, Norway 1,200, Ireland and Iraq 1,000 each. There were also 6,600 "unkown destinations".

Turkey?


  • 0

#25 Fritz

Fritz

    Master of Panzer

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 7,598 posts

Posted 14 July 2016 - 1135 AM

Likely ethnic Turks with German passports.


  • 0

#26 Panzermann

Panzermann

    REFORGER '79

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 16,456 posts

Posted 14 July 2016 - 1136 AM


For good measure, I might as well add where Germans emigrated: Switzerland 18,300, US 13,400, Austria 10,200, UK 8,900, Turkey 6,800, Spain 6,200, France 5,900, Poland 5,500, Australia 3,500, Netherlands 3,400, Greece 2,900, China 2,700, Italy and Russia 2,300 each, Canada 2,200, Belgium 2,100, Sweden 1,800, Thailand 1,700, UAE 1,500, Denmark, Brazil and New Zealand 1,300 each, Norway 1,200, Ireland and Iraq 1,000 each. There were also 6,600 "unkown destinations".

Turkey?

Turkish "guest workers" and/or their children or grandchildren even have migrated back to booming Turkey in recent years.
  • 0

#27 BansheeOne

BansheeOne

    Bullshit filter overload, venting into civility charger

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 14,283 posts

Posted 14 July 2016 - 1158 AM

Also, it is (with some dents like currently) a major holiday destination for Germans, leading to tourism-related jobs in hotels, clubs, shops, restaurants etc. frequented by them, some run by Germans, private relationships spring up, people who liked to visit retire there because it's Warm and Cheap™, and so on.


  • 0

#28 swerve

swerve

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 14,779 posts

Posted 14 July 2016 - 1843 PM

I've encountered Germans retiring to Turkey, Turkish emigrants & their descendants returned (one family from Australia to open a hotel which I stayed in), Germans moving to the Med to set up businesses servicing German & perhaps other tourists (e.g. a German dentist who fixed a broken filling for me), etc.


Edited by swerve, 14 July 2016 - 1844 PM.

  • 0

#29 Mobius

Mobius

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 5,826 posts

Posted 15 July 2016 - 0645 AM

Likely ethnic Turks with German passports.

Who also would show up in the crime statistics as 'German'.   Like I was asking.


  • 0

#30 BansheeOne

BansheeOne

    Bullshit filter overload, venting into civility charger

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 14,283 posts

Posted 15 July 2016 - 0817 AM

Well, as noted one in eight German citizens has an immigration background. In the 80s, there were about 40,000 naturalizations per year; with the influx of ethnic Germans in the 90s, this rose to a peak of 314,000 in 1996, declining to 117,000 in 2005 after the citizenship law was changed from blood- to birth-based in 2000. Since then, this has been between 90,000 and 120,000 per year.

 

In 2001, there were 6.364 million criminal cases, or 774 per million inhabitants. There was a slight increase to 6.633 million cases (800 per million) in 2004, then a decline to 5.933 million (725 per million) in 2010, then an increase to 6.331 million (780 per million) last year again.

 

That's including immigration offenses; as mentioned German citizens almost never commit those, and numbers excluding them available from 2005 show 6.288 million cases (762 per million) that year, a decline to 5.859 million (716 per million) in 2010, then a slight up and down to 5.928 million (730 per million) last year. If anything, crime is lower today while the number of naturalized citizens has risen, but frankly the changes within that time are nearly insignificant.

 

Regarding criminal travellers, I found a statement that 20 percent of non-German suspects were also not German residents in 2012. The current crime report notes that in burglary cases, 7.9 percent of all suspects have non-German residency; given that 40.2 percent in those cases are non-German, that jives. 17.9 percent are also stated to have unknown or no residency, though I think it's mostly the latter, i.e. homeless folks out for a quick buck.

 

Something else to keep in mind is that foreign-looking suspects apparently are 50 percent more likely to be reported to police, which I guess is basic human nature but skews the numbers somewhat.


  • 0

#31 BansheeOne

BansheeOne

    Bullshit filter overload, venting into civility charger

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 14,283 posts

Posted 14 September 2016 - 0809 AM

This would almost be something for the information warfare thread, but the topic of this publication from the Gatestone Institute I came across two days ago is Germany's "Migrant Rape Crisis", which is apparently "spiraling out of control". According to this, "Germany is effectively under siege; public spaces are becoming increasingly perilous. Police have warned about a potential breakdown of public order this summer, when young male migrants are likely to see women lightly dressed." I had a ton of fun with it from a professional point of view, deconstructing the smoke and mirrors. Of course it got so long I included a tl;dr at the end. :D

 

It starts off with some generic bullet points about how well sex crimes are reported and prosecuted in Germany overall:

 


- Germany's migrant rape crisis has now spread to cities and towns in all 16 of Germany's federal states. Germany now finds itself in a vicious circle: most of the perpetrators are never found, and the few who are frequently receive lenient sentences. Only one in 10 rapes in Germany is reported and just 8% of rape trials result in convictions, according to Minister of Justice Heiko Maas.

 

- Up to 90% of the sex crimes committed in Germany in 2014 do not appear in the official statistics, according to André Schulz, the head of the Association of Criminal Police.

 

Disregarding the claim that there is a "crisis" which is "spreading", none of these problems with sex crimes are of course new; ask any feminist. These crimes have long been known to have a huge dark field because victims don't come forward out of shame and/or because they don't want to go through the ordeal of living through it and possibly being humiliated again in court, where "he said, she said" situations abound and conviction rates are, as noted, rather low. Part of the problem is that most sex crimes don't involve the stereotypical stranger jumping out from behind a bush, but friends, family, neighbors and colleagues; the bush-jumping stranger is stereotypical because these incidents tend to get reported, as victims are less hesitant (one of the linked sources, a 2013 article from the conservative daily "Die Welt" actually makes that point).

 

The implication of the piece is of course that rape-by-migrant is also, or even specifically underreported, backed up by some of the quotes by named or unnamed police sources which get cited once in a while; though again the abovementioned source from "Die Welt" charges that official statistics low-ball crime in general (but targets the Red-Green state government of North Rhine-Westphalia specifically) because the same suspect aggrieving several victims only gets reported as a single case. This, too, is not a new discussion however, as the article states itself.

 

Now as far as rape of Germans by migrants goes, those cases obviously come largely under the "stranger" category and would thus be rather well-reported by the victims themselves; in fact as I stated in the unrelated previous post, foreign-looking crime suspects are 50 percent more likely to get reported due to being both physically and psychologically conspicuous, reinforcing the effect. Then again, there is naturally rape among migrants, too, which we can assume to both happen much more frequently and be reported much less if involving friends, family, neighbors, etc. In fact the problem of sexual crimes within shelters etc. has been pointed out once in a while, but somehow the Gatestone piece isn't interested in this part.

 

With that as background, more of the obvious:

 


Attacks occurred at beaches, bike trails, cemeteries, discotheques, grocery stores, music festivals, parking garages, playgrounds, schools, shopping malls, taxis, public transportation (buses, trams, intercity express trains and subways), public parks, public squares, public swimming pools and public restrooms. Predators are lurking everywhere; safety nowhere.

 

Dozens of women and children have been assaulted by migrants at summer festivals and public swimming pools — staples of ordinary German life.

 

Yes, sexual assaults can occur anywhere. Even more spectacular, "anywhere" includes "staples of ordinary life". Most spectacularly, events like summer festivals have always been somewhat notorious for this, for obvious reasons: throngs of people, dancing, flirting, alcohol, etc. But onward:

 


Information about sexual assaults can usually be found only in local police reports. Rapes are sometimes treated as local interest stories and covered by local or regional newspapers. Only the most spectacular incidents of rape and sexual assault make it into the national press.

 

Well, yes; that's how most crime reports are being treated. Now if the piece complained that xenophobic incidents of migrants getting attacked by Germans do tend to get reported by national press even when they don't exceed in magnitude what is usually reported only at the local level, it would have a point; but it lets that very real unequal treatment slip by in its focus on rape-by-migrant. Rather, with the groundwork of the scarily normal laid, it now proceeds to build on it in bad faith.

 


Three rape cases did make it into Germany's national media in July:

  • On July 24, a 40-year-old migrant from Eritrea raped a 79-year-old woman in a cemetery in Ibbenbüren. The woman, who lives in a local nursing home, was visiting the grave of her late sister at 6AM when the attack occurred. The migrant, who has been living as a refugee in Germany since 2013, was arrested at the scene. He is unlikely to be deported, however, because Eritrea is considered a conflict zone.

  • On July 14, it emerged that one of the women raped by Muslim sex mobs in Cologne on New Year's Eve became pregnant. She failed to report the attack to police because she felt ashamed.

  • On July 3, a 24-year-old woman raped by three migrants in Mannheim in January admitted that she lied about the identity of the rapists. Selin Gören, a Turkish-German woman, initially said that her attackers were German nationals, when in fact they were Muslim migrants.

 

Here we have three cases which legitimately made national press for their public importance; and two of them are even legit. Now with the piece dated 9 August, you'd think the author would have been aware that by 28 July it had turned out that the alleged Cologne rape victim (which would have been the fourth in addition to three established cases, and the first to actually have suffered a completed rather than attempted rape or having put fingers inside her) hadn't even been in Cologne on New Year's Eve, and had a prior history of fake rape reports, not necessarily involving migrants. The same is true for a case listed in the appendix of the piece, in which a 21-year-old claimed to have been raped by two Black Africans on the way home from a village festival on 17 July; by the next day it had turned out that she was covering herself for unspecified reasons. Which aren't the first migrant rape hoaxes either; a German website that has dedicated itself to debunking fake reports about migrant crime lists 62 (and five in Austria) since last year.

 

It is among the ironies of the topic that the folks who are most outraged about sexual assaults by migrants tend to be the same who otherwise like to blast women complaining about such attacks as man-hating feminist bitches who can't take a bit of good fun and are out to criminalize men (of course the reverse applies, too). Locally, those types like to cherry-pick studies about false rape accusations for statements of individual police officers that "in my experience, half of these accusations are made up". Now the problem definitely exists, and there have been several high-profile/celebrity cases of false rape charges not involving migrants (or at least that not being the point) in Germany in recent years, one just last month; but the same studies (one from Bavaria, one from Schleswig-Holstein) seem to indicate that about eight percent of rape accusations end in charges of wrongful accusation for the alleged victim (incidentally, that's the same number as successful rape convictions). Motives are the usual: revenge, extortion, thinking better of consensual sex, covering for other flings, or want for attention crossing into mental.

 

I would guess that the fake rate among accusations of migrant rape is higher than eight percent, both for political purposes and because it grants more attention for the mental cases; as related sometime earlier, back when the popular threat du jour was neo-Nazis, claims of attacks from such (not necessarily sexual) abounded among the attention-seeking types and were happily swallowed by those with an appropriate interest (it has not totally gone out of fashion either; only recently a claim to that effect by a youth functionary of the Left Party in Wismar, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern turned out to be fake). There are the Tawana Brawley types, too, like in the case of the 13-year-old girl from Berlin who claimed to have been raped by migrants earlier this year to cover for avoiding school. It’s not a good basis, but from comparing this piece with the anti-hoax website I would guess that at least one in five cases of rape-by-immigrant is a hoax.

 

There are other bits in the piece which show a thorough disconnect from current German reality, like holding up Tübingen mayor Boris Palmer as an example of a "progressive" naïve do-gooder; which is damn funny considering that Palmer regularly gets blasted by his Green co-partisans for "overtaking the CSU on the right" over his hard-ass statements on immigration. The real meat though is in the appendix supposed to back up the claim that "during the month of July 2016, hundreds of German women and children were sexually assaulted by migrants" by listing "a few" cases. The latter qualification is obviously to imply that there are really many, many more which go unreported – because the rather extensive list would otherwise put the lie to the suggestion that German authorities and media suppress such incidents.

 

In fact authorities have been so jittery about that charge after the Cologne events that they sometimes have put out exaggerated reports of sexual assaults by migrants before thorough investigation themselves, like in a case that allegedly happened in a Kiel mall in February. The piece also helpfully points out that migrants will often not be called migrants in reports, but "of southern type", "dark-skinned", or "speaking broken German". It then happily turns that around to use any report mentioning any of those terms a proof for a migrant attack, notwithstanding that there may be Germans who are "of southern type" or "dark-skinned". The description might also refer to anyone with origins as diverse as from Spain to Romania, or Morocco to India; and of course any non-German, even if lily-white, would tend to speak "broken German".

 

In the end, most such descriptions probably do refer to migrants, even if not necessarily to asylum seekers, or even those who came here in the refugee crisis; it’s kinda hard to establish their status if police are only just looking for an unknown suspect based upon a physical description. There are some established cases of asylum seekers in the list, but also some as diverse as "a dark-skinned man speaking unaccented German" or a Turkish taxi driver; quite likely not recent arrivals. In several cases, no description is given in the sources at all to indicate a non-German; follow-up reports to the same incidents are listed as separate events. The piece also happily omits mention of a victim of an assault getting saved by a guy speaking "broken German", or a Dutch tourist being sexually harassed at a public pool by a "Middle-European type"; just like instances of other sexual assaults by non-migrants in the same police reports.

 

Overall though it shows commendable effort in compiling reports, almost all even from reputable sources, thereby drowning the recipient in cases – even if most are actually not rapes and thus not exactly supporting the claim of a "rape crisis". To honor this hard work, I actually read every single source given and compiled my own table of which cases are completed or attempted rape, groping, verbal harassment, or exhibitionism, and how many established migrants of various nationalities, "southerners" or others committed them.

 

Completed Rape: Total of twelve suspects in nine cases, ten with established identities.

- 1 x Afghan

- 1 x Eritrean living as a recognized refugee in Germany since 2013.

- 1 x Iraqi

- 1 x Nigerian

- 4 x Pakistanis having sex with incapacitated 17-year-old after joint boozing.

- 1 x Tunisian also suspected of one count of exhibitionism in July, as well as two earlier sexual assaults.

- 1 x North African with multiple registered identities nation-wide, also charged with attempted homicide and robbery; follow-up report listed as separate event.

- 1 x Black African

- 1 x dark-skinned talking in unknown language and some English.

 

Attempted Rape: Total of 14 individual suspects and two groups in 16 cases, most identities not established since attackers ran off when prevented from completing.

- 1 x Afghan

- 1 x Pakistani

- 1 x Syrian/Lebanese

- 1 x group of “up to six apparent Syrians” suspected of spiking drinks of two women at a discotheque.

- 1 x Black African

- 3 x dark-skinned

- 5 x southern type; source for one no longer available, cannot be confirmed. One speaking unaccented German, one driving a Mercedes van with foreign plates, probably not refugees.

- 1 x refugee/asylum seeker

- 1 x migration background speaking broken German; victim rescued by man speaking accented German.

- 1 x group of foreigners

 

Groping: Total of 121 individual suspects and three groups.

- 18 x Afghan; many described as intoxicated, many cases at swimming pools. In one case, a follow-up report of the same incident is listed as a separate case.

- 1 x Albanian

- 1 x Albanian-speaking group

- 2 x Algerian; deportation of one was due after previous incidents anyway, initiated immediately afterwards.

- 1 x Eritrean

- 3 x Iranian; one victim was Chinese.

- 6 x Iraqi

- 1 x Libyan

- 1 x Moroccan; also exhibitionism in five separate incidents with the same woman on the same night, intoxicated and cheered on by company. Came here in 2014 as unaccompanied minor, asylum request rejected but not yet deported due to the usual trouble with papers etc.; victim also filed no charges.

- 4 x Pakistani; source for one no longer available, cannot be confirmed.

- 1 x Sudanese

- 3 x Syrian

- Four boys aged 11-13 from Syrian and Iraqi families groping 12-year-old girl, one also exhibiting himself and demanding sexual acts.

- 1 x Turkish taxi driver

- 6 x Black African

- 1 x group of Black Africans

- 8 x North African

- 3 x Arab-looking

- 1 x group of Arab-looking men

- 20 x dark-skinned; two also speaking broken, one no German, one German without further qualification.

- 7 x southern type; one described as possibly Turkish, two also speaking broken German, one talking unintelligibly, possibly English.

- 1 x group of southern types

- 2 x Indian type

- 1 x southern-to-African

- 1 x Southeast-European type

- 2 x broken German

- 5 x foreign-speaking

- 4 x foreigner; one "possibly", one approaching a woman with “mangiare”.

- 2 x migration background; one a German citizen.

- 2 x migrant

- 8 x refugee/asylum seeker; one "possibly".

- 2 x no description

 

Harassment: Total of 31 individual suspects and one group.

- 2 x Afghan

- 2 x Eritrean

- 1 x Iranian

- 1 x Kazakh

- 4 x Moroccan

- 1 x Tunisian

- 1 x Black African

- 8 x North African

- 5 x southern type

- 5 x refugee/asylum seeker

- 1 x possible foreigner; same report listed twice.

- 1 x group of refugees hanging out in public square for free townhall wifi in several incidents

 

Exhibitionism: Total of 21 suspects.

- 1 x Afghan

- 1 x Iraqi

- 1 x Syrian

- 6 x dark-skinned

- 9 x southern type; one speaking unaccented German, one in several incidents, sources for two incidents involving one and five respectively no longer available, cannot be confirmed.

- 1 x Southeast-European type

- 1 x migration background

- 1 x no fixed abode in Germany

 

Attempted robbery with no apparent sexual motive: 2 x dark-skinned foreigner

 

For comparison purposes, in 2014 there were 7,345 registered cases of rape (including 1,153 attempts) involving 6,162 suspects in Germany, out of 46,982 cases of sex crime involving 33,101 suspects total. Of the rape suspects, 31 percent or 1,911 were non-German, including 476 Turks, 94 Italians, 88 Romanians, 75 Poles and Afghans each, 73 Serbs, 67 Iraqis and 54 Kosovars. Non-Germans show up less as suspects for sex crime overall (2,852 or 8.6 percent), but proportions of nationalities are essentially the same.

 

Comparison is of course difficult because those cases include attacks on their own, which the Gatestone piece is not interested in; then again as noted, victims tend to not report attacks by those close to them in particular. At any rate, the monthly average before anybody was talking of a refugee, much less a rape crisis, was thus about 610, including an estimated 190 (31 percent) by non-Germans. 25 cases by migrants is then a pretty labored definition of a "crisis", particularly as we can assume numbers in summer to be higher than average (as stated earlier, warm weather, people getting out, festivals, alcohol, opportunity to get raped by strangers which tends to get reported more).

 

For all its faults, the piece backs up the long-stated fact that some nationalities are overrepresented in crime statistics, while others are inconspicuous. North Africans and Balkan types as well as some Black Africans are typically mentioned among the former, and this is reflected in the list (reports about North Africans often indicate sex attacks are used to enable theft, a typical modus operandi of such gangs even before it was popularized in the Cologne events). What jumps out of course is the prevalence of Afghans (and immediate neighbors like Pakistanis and Iranians), particularly in swimming pool incidents, which likely indicates a bona fide cultural problem; also, frequent mention of intoxicated attackers, probably because people from many Muslim countries can’t handle alcohol. OTOH, Syrians among others remain underrepresented.

 

Tl;dr: Piece claims "Germany’s migrant rape crisis spirals out of control, country effectively under siege, public spaces are becoming increasingly perilous, breakdown of public order imminent". For evidence, cites three rape cases from this year reported by national press, of which one is made-up; and painstakingly lists eleven further cases of completed and sixteen of attempted rape by alleged migrants out of 200 incidents overall from local reports in July, at least one of which is also false and one is a follow-on report of an earlier incident. This against a "pre-crisis" monthly average of 600-plus rape cases nationwide, about 30 percent by non-Germans.


Edited by BansheeOne, 14 September 2016 - 1149 AM.

  • 0

#32 Panzermann

Panzermann

    REFORGER '79

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 16,456 posts

Posted 14 September 2016 - 1035 AM

Great work BansheeOne! :)

Flei%C3%9Fbienchen.png
you get a little diligence bee.
  • 0

#33 JasonJ

JasonJ

    nonbiri

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 11,027 posts

Posted 14 September 2016 - 1058 AM

Possibly a stupid question but in this part, shouldn't there be 9 cases or is one case not listed for some reason? I added numbers for ease of counting.
 

Completed Rape: Total of 14 suspects in ten cases, twelve with established identities.

1- 3 x Afghan

2- 1 x Eritrean living as a recognized refugee in Germany since 2013.

3- 1 x Iraqi

4- 1 x Nigerian

5- 4 x Pakistanis having sex with incapacitated 17-year-old after joint boozing.

6- 1 x Tunisian also suspected of one count of exhibitionism in July, as well as two earlier sexual assaults.

7- 1 x North African with multiple registered identities nation-wide, also charged with attempted homicide and robbery; follow-up report listed as separate event.

8- 1 x Black African

9- 1 x dark-skinned talking in unknown language and some English.

 


  • 0

#34 BansheeOne

BansheeOne

    Bullshit filter overload, venting into civility charger

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 14,283 posts

Posted 14 September 2016 - 1145 AM

Two of the Afghans, aged 20 and 25, were in the same incident, molesting a 14-year-old boy in the changerooms of a public pool. The report actually didn't say "rape", just sexual acts against the victim's will; but also that one of the men was incriminated by DNA, so I counted this one as quasi-rape within my categories.

 

Of course reading it again I find the report of 6 July is about the men being formally charged with sexual molestation for the attack which already happened in April, so in effect you're right - the case doesn't belong in the list, reducing number of rapes to nine. Thanks, will correct.


Edited by BansheeOne, 14 September 2016 - 1145 AM.

  • 0

#35 Mike Steele

Mike Steele

    Boobies!

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 15,746 posts

Posted 14 September 2016 - 1152 AM

No Swedes on the list... curious...


  • 0

#36 JasonJ

JasonJ

    nonbiri

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 11,027 posts

Posted 14 September 2016 - 1153 AM

Ah just correct by accident, but no problem anyway. I ready it incorrectly, thinking each dash represented a case when in fact it was listing different ethnic groups making up the category, if I understand all aspects of the write up correctly now.


  • 0

#37 BansheeOne

BansheeOne

    Bullshit filter overload, venting into civility charger

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 14,283 posts

Posted 15 September 2016 - 0608 AM

BTW this is an interesting case off the beaten track that shows the intricacies of the system: A court ruled today that the fourth kid of a Chinese couple that met and married in Germany must be given refugee status due to China's two-child policy. The parents had argued that if the family returned to China, they would be heavily fined and the kid would not be officially registered, excluding him from going to school or receiving any welfare among other societal discrimination.

 

The parents and their first two kids are on "tolerated" status (i.e., you really have to leave the country, but we chose not to deport you) while the third and fourth (the latter born last year) so far have had subsidiary protection (i.e., you're not being persecuted individually, but would still be endangered in your home country). The changed status will have no effect on the other family members though, since to get family protection the family would have had to exist at the time they came to Germany already.


  • 0

#38 Panzermann

Panzermann

    REFORGER '79

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 16,456 posts

Posted 15 September 2016 - 0625 AM

Hmm, does Taiwan take mainland chinese?
  • 0

#39 BansheeOne

BansheeOne

    Bullshit filter overload, venting into civility charger

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 14,283 posts

Posted 21 September 2016 - 0444 AM

File with the demographic information on this thread: 20 percent of kids born in Germany last year had a non-German mother (148,000 of 738,000), a rise from the rather stable 17-18 percent since 1996. Overall, number of births increased by 22,650 compared to 2014, of which 17,280 by mothers with no German citizenship. The total increase is still lower than the previous year where it was 33,000 over 2013, but then 22,000 of the additional kids were born to German mothers and only 11,000 to non-German ones.

 

However, the 2014 baby boom was probably a bit of an anomaly when lots of women decided they would now have the baby they had previously put off for career reasons etc.; in 2012 the rise was about 8,300, in 2013 about 3,500 for Germans, and about 2,400/5,000 respectively for non-Germans. In fact relative changes in live births vary very much from year to year, depending upon various factors like perceived economic development and stability etc.

 

The largest group among non-citizens last year were again Turkish mothers with 21,555 (2014: 21,908) births, followed by 10,831 (9,958) Poles, 8,154 (5,551) Romanians, 7,146 (6,080) Kosovarians, 5,982 (5,568) Italians, 5,616 (4,957) Serbs, 5,458 (5,553) Russians, 4,829 (2,281) Syrians, 4,202 (3,135) Bulgarians and 3,245 (2,957) Greeks.

 

Unsurprisingly, the biggest relative rise was among Syrian mothers with 112 percent, but Romanians (+ 47), Bulgarians (+ 34), Kosovarians (+ 12), Serbs (+ 11), Greeks (+ 10), Poles (+ 9) and Italians (+ 7) also saw sometimes considerable increases (though it has to be kept in mind that high relative increases are easier in smaller communities). Turks (- 1.6) and Russians (- 1.7) both decreased somewhat.

 

https://www.destatis...866A118F23.cae3

 


  • 0

#40 BansheeOne

BansheeOne

    Bullshit filter overload, venting into civility charger

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 14,283 posts

Posted 30 September 2016 - 0741 AM

While I'm throwing about demographic data, the Federal Bureau of Statistics published its preliminary migration report for 2015 today. Unsurprisingly, total immigration reached a record high of 2,137,000 last year, but emigration was also very high at 998,000. Population in Germany thus grew by about 1,139,000 in balance.

 

Not directly related, but the long-announced revised numbers of refugees registered in the EASY system last year have now been announced. As some will recall, the unrevised number from January was just below 1.1 million, but included various multiple registries and people who had moved on to other countries; it was suggested then that after sorting those out, the result would be about a million. In fact it is 890,000. For the current year, 210,000 have been registered as of 21 September; the expected total until year's end is 300,000.


  • 0