Jump to content


Photo

The Current Canadian-Saudi Dust-Up


  • Please log in to reply
33 replies to this topic

#1 Dawes

Dawes

    Crew

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 2,550 posts

Posted 17 December 2018 - 2130 PM

So the Canadian government wants to cancel a $15 billion dollar LAV contract with the Saudis, and which may cost them $1 billion in cancellation penalties. And which may put hundreds of jobs in jeopardy. All this is due to the death of the reporter Kashoggi (sp?).

 

How do our Canadian brethren think this this will play out? Is there another way to maintain the contract and appease the masses?

 


  • 0

#2 R011

R011

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 6,541 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Posted 18 December 2018 - 0020 AM

On the Canadian side, it depends on how many votes the Liberals think they will lose by going forward with this deal compared to how many they will lose by giving up such a big contract and all the jobs it involves. The second number is one or two seats in London Ontario and area.  The first number is hard to say as while no one likes the Saudis, there isn't really much actual public outrage about doing business with them except among the chattering classes.  It depends on how vulnerable they look in the polls. If they could find another, uncontroversial buyer to replace the Saudis, then the problem would be solved.

 

On the Saudi side, if our virtue signalling gets too bothersome, they'll buy from whoever will sell to them, France, for instance.


  • 0

#3 urbanoid

urbanoid

    Crew

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 5,344 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Lodz, Poland

Posted 18 December 2018 - 0406 AM

On the Saudi side, if our virtue signalling gets too bothersome, they'll buy from whoever will sell to them, France, for instance.

Or, more likely, from the US.


  • 0

#4 glenn239

glenn239

    Crew

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 4,981 posts

Posted 18 December 2018 - 0817 AM

So the Canadian government wants to cancel a $15 billion dollar LAV contract with the Saudis, and which may cost them $1 billion in cancellation penalties. And which may put hundreds of jobs in jeopardy. All this is due to the death of the reporter Kashoggi (sp?).

 

How do our Canadian brethren think this this will play out? Is there another way to maintain the contract and appease the masses?

 

 

I think Trudeau is wrong to cancel the contract and that the head foreign affairs in cabinet  (Freeland) is too argumentative, rigid, and idealistic for the job and should be replaced, (we're getting into avoidable clashes with various countries such as China and Saudi Arabia over ideology).


  • 0

#5 Stuart Galbraith

Stuart Galbraith

    Just Another Salisbury Tourist

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 52,749 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Eloiland

Posted 18 December 2018 - 0913 AM

Murdering reporters isnt Ideology. Murdering reporters is directly interfering with freedom of speech. If you dont endorse it abroad, sooner or later you will tolerate it being done at home.

They dont want to live by our rules, dont trade with them. Same goes with China.

 

 

Yes, its very sad there are going to be lots of canadians out of jobs. It would have been far smarter not to have traded with Saudi Arabia at all IMHO.


  • 0

#6 Josh

Josh

    Crew

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 14,182 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:New York City

Posted 18 December 2018 - 0955 AM

Sadly, the US will gladly take up the slack. I've less problems with the one guy the KSA killed in Turkey and more of an issue with the unending war they have in Yemen. I think the first issue drew a lot of attention to the second. It's sad that so much time is spent talking about Syria and no one seemed to care about Yemen until the KSA managed to step out of bounds killing someone with a US residency on someone else's territory.

Edited by Josh, 18 December 2018 - 0957 AM.

  • 0

#7 glenn239

glenn239

    Crew

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 4,981 posts

Posted 18 December 2018 - 1221 PM

Murdering reporters isnt Ideology. Murdering reporters is directly interfering with freedom of speech. If you dont endorse it abroad, sooner or later you will tolerate it being done at home.

They dont want to live by our rules, dont trade with them. Same goes with China.

 

 

Yes, its very sad there are going to be lots of canadians out of jobs. It would have been far smarter not to have traded with Saudi Arabia at all IMHO.

 

For a guy that doesn't love Putin, you do seem to want to hand Russia an easy victory here.

 

Josh Sadly, the US will gladly take up the slack.

 

 

I'm sure the Saudis would piss themselves laughing at the idea that if Canada cancels the US will just step in and get the contract.  


Edited by glenn239, 18 December 2018 - 1227 PM.

  • 0

#8 Stuart Galbraith

Stuart Galbraith

    Just Another Salisbury Tourist

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 52,749 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Eloiland

Posted 18 December 2018 - 1237 PM

Glenn, for someone whom cares so much about values, you sure dont seem to have any.

 

 

Sadly, the US will gladly take up the slack. I've less problems with the one guy the KSA killed in Turkey and more of an issue with the unending war they have in Yemen. I think the first issue drew a lot of attention to the second. It's sad that so much time is spent talking about Syria and no one seemed to care about Yemen until the KSA managed to step out of bounds killing someone with a US residency on someone else's territory.

 

Yemen in pure bodycount is far more important, for sure. But we supposedly value free speech. We supposedly uphold the values of journalists questioning authority. We roll over on a Journalist being murdered, and Google and every other multinational rolls over for China in censoring free speech. During the cold war we stood for something. Now, its just becoming a pure parody of everything we fought the cold war for. Unless we stand by these values, we may as well have just rolled over in 1945. It would have saved lots of money and bloodshed.

 

A west that doesn't stand by its values, isnt a west anymore. Its bad enough the Americans are increasingly in love with the idea there are no values, only costs. As if the free market ever actually was a torch holder for freedom.


  • 0

#9 R011

R011

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 6,541 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Posted 18 December 2018 - 1342 PM

During the Cold War, the West supported people as bad as the Saudis are today. Nations dont have principles, they have interests.
  • 0

#10 Colin

Colin

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 16,752 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Vancouver, Canada
  • Interests:tanks, old and new AFV's, Landrovers, diving, hovercrafts

Posted 18 December 2018 - 1512 PM

Canada could apply the same metrics to China but won't. China is far to important a customer and the Liberals have a love affair with the ruling class there.


Edited by Colin, 18 December 2018 - 1512 PM.

  • 0

#11 Dark_Falcon

Dark_Falcon

    The Stryker's Friend

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 3,270 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Chicagoland

Posted 18 December 2018 - 1721 PM

Sadly, the US will gladly take up the slack. I've less problems with the one guy the KSA killed in Turkey and more of an issue with the unending war they have in Yemen. I think the first issue drew a lot of attention to the second. It's sad that so much time is spent talking about Syria and no one seemed to care about Yemen until the KSA managed to step out of bounds killing someone with a US residency on someone else's territory.

 

No we won't, because the Senate would block the deal.  I don't really see the Saudis being able to sign any major new contracts for AFVs in North America in the near term unless the Crown Prince MBS is smacked down visibly for having Khashoggi killed.  He ruffled too many people's feathers and they're not going to simply forget it overnight.

 

My own bet is that deliveries of AFVs from North America to the KSA will be halted for a period of a few months to a year or two.  I think MBS will get his toys eventually, but that won't happen next week or even next month.


  • 0

#12 Dawes

Dawes

    Crew

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 2,550 posts

Posted 18 December 2018 - 2051 PM

I think it's fair to say that the average American simply isn't interested in this whole affair. Of course, the average American probably can't find Saudi Arabia on a map.


  • 0

#13 Stuart Galbraith

Stuart Galbraith

    Just Another Salisbury Tourist

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 52,749 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Eloiland

Posted 19 December 2018 - 0306 AM

During the Cold War, the West supported people as bad as the Saudis are today. Nations dont have principles, they have interests.

 

They supported people as bad as the Saudi's, with the understanding they would become better as economic development occurred. Look around the globe, whether its the Phillipines, Panama, South Korea or Chile, it all came true. Compare and contrast with the middle east, whether its Mubarak for us, or Gadaffi for the Soviets, it just hasnt happened. Every tax dollar put into Saudi Arabia just seems to make them more decadent and intractable.

 

As for the second part of what you write there, that keeps being touted, but its ridiculous. Its the morally absent foreign policy cooked up by sociopaths like Kissinger. Yes, there are inherent advantages occasionally in behaving that way, but were it true the US would not have remained engaged in Europe for so long. There was no real economic reason why we gave the Irish Republic an 8 Billion pound float at the time of the financial crisis. Friendship is but one explanation for it.

 

Democratic nations all need each other right now. The ones that arent? Let them be the millstone of the unfree world. Because that is essentially what the Saudi's are becoming as their oil becomes less and less important.


  • 0

#14 urbanoid

urbanoid

    Crew

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 5,344 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Lodz, Poland

Posted 19 December 2018 - 0351 AM

They supported people as bad as the Saudi's, with the understanding they would become better as economic development occurred. Look around the globe, whether its the Phillipines, Panama, South Korea or Chile, it all came true. Compare and contrast with the middle east, whether its Mubarak for us, or Gadaffi for the Soviets, it just hasnt happened. Every tax dollar put into Saudi Arabia just seems to make them more decadent and intractable.

 

It's the other way around.


  • 0

#15 Stuart Galbraith

Stuart Galbraith

    Just Another Salisbury Tourist

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 52,749 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Eloiland

Posted 19 December 2018 - 0452 AM

 

They supported people as bad as the Saudi's, with the understanding they would become better as economic development occurred. Look around the globe, whether its the Phillipines, Panama, South Korea or Chile, it all came true. Compare and contrast with the middle east, whether its Mubarak for us, or Gadaffi for the Soviets, it just hasnt happened. Every tax dollar put into Saudi Arabia just seems to make them more decadent and intractable.

 

It's the other way around.

 

 

Maybe it is now, but whom bought their oil? Whom was instrumental in setting up the oil industry they have? The Americans subsequently learned the lesson and looked elsewhere for their oil, not least at home. The rest of us have not.


  • 0

#16 JasonJ

JasonJ

    nonbiri

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 10,412 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:doko yarou
  • Interests:sleeping

Posted 19 December 2018 - 0514 AM

Canada could apply the same metrics to China but won't. China is far to important a customer and the Liberals have a love affair with the ruling class there.

 

It's pretty similar situation for all countries, even Japan, which has a huge trade relation with China, which goes in great contrast to anyone that watches the geopolitical and geo-economical competition between the two.

 

So I think for business to continue with China that doesn't result in a geopolitical strategic disadvantage in the long term are economic blocs like how the EU helps protect individual EU countries being out competed in negotiations with other bigger countries like Russia or China. So for Canada, Australia, and Japan, that's the CPTPP. It makes for an economic based foundation to tug geopolitical interests of these countries to align more with each other and make it harder for a country like China make better arrangements for itself on a 1 to 1 basis.

 

I think economic and diplomatic policies based just on liberal ideals of freedom of speech/press/religion etc. is enough when dealing with small countries that are not of that nature but not enough when dealing with China. An economic incentive is also needed to steer policies towards alignment between the smaller democratic countries, hence CPTPP. The US not in it is still quite big on its own or within the new USMCA.


  • 0

#17 urbanoid

urbanoid

    Crew

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 5,344 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Lodz, Poland

Posted 19 December 2018 - 0559 AM

 

 

They supported people as bad as the Saudi's, with the understanding they would become better as economic development occurred. Look around the globe, whether its the Phillipines, Panama, South Korea or Chile, it all came true. Compare and contrast with the middle east, whether its Mubarak for us, or Gadaffi for the Soviets, it just hasnt happened. Every tax dollar put into Saudi Arabia just seems to make them more decadent and intractable.

 

It's the other way around.

 

 

Maybe it is now, but whom bought their oil? Whom was instrumental in setting up the oil industry they have? The Americans subsequently learned the lesson and looked elsewhere for their oil, not least at home. The rest of us have not.

 

There weren't many other options than Saudi & Co and there aren't that many now for that matter. Unlike Russia or Iran, which are other big producers, Saudis aren't a threat to Western-backed regional/international order, they actually welcome it. We need that oil anyway, better to buy it from ME kingdoms that are dependent on the West than from those who compete with the West.

If we kick them in the ass because of some human rights and shit they will find another 'daddy', maybe in Moscow, maybe in Beijing, maybe both. It will be others influencing the oil market, it will be others selling them shit worth hundreds of billions, as they can't do shit by themselves.

For now we simply need to wait for technological breakthroughs that will give us cleaner AND cheaper source of energy. Lots of nasty states will suffer because of it.

 


  • 0

#18 glenn239

glenn239

    Crew

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 4,981 posts

Posted 19 December 2018 - 0817 AM

Glenn, for someone whom cares so much about values, you sure dont seem to have any.

 

 

 

 

I value Canadian jobs in London.  And you don't.   

 

One day you want to oppose Russian influence, the next you seem to want to hand Putin a 15 billion dollar Saudi APC contract and influence over half the Middle East.   Consistency like that is a bit of the chicken with its head cut off variety.

 

 

Democratic nations all need each other right now.

 

 

For Canada the biggest current problem is a serious rift between the provinces (BC and Alberta in particular) and some of the provinces and the Federal government.  On the foreign front, China is the big one right now - our principled government is not going to play ball, so we're all worried more Canadians overseas might get arrested. 


Edited by glenn239, 19 December 2018 - 0822 AM.

  • 0

#19 Stuart Galbraith

Stuart Galbraith

    Just Another Salisbury Tourist

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 52,749 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Eloiland

Posted 19 December 2018 - 0845 AM

 

 

 

They supported people as bad as the Saudi's, with the understanding they would become better as economic development occurred. Look around the globe, whether its the Phillipines, Panama, South Korea or Chile, it all came true. Compare and contrast with the middle east, whether its Mubarak for us, or Gadaffi for the Soviets, it just hasnt happened. Every tax dollar put into Saudi Arabia just seems to make them more decadent and intractable.

 

It's the other way around.

 

 

Maybe it is now, but whom bought their oil? Whom was instrumental in setting up the oil industry they have? The Americans subsequently learned the lesson and looked elsewhere for their oil, not least at home. The rest of us have not.

 

There weren't many other options than Saudi & Co and there aren't that many now for that matter. Unlike Russia or Iran, which are other big producers, Saudis aren't a threat to Western-backed regional/international order, they actually welcome it. We need that oil anyway, better to buy it from ME kingdoms that are dependent on the West than from those who compete with the West.

If we kick them in the ass because of some human rights and shit they will find another 'daddy', maybe in Moscow, maybe in Beijing, maybe both. It will be others influencing the oil market, it will be others selling them shit worth hundreds of billions, as they can't do shit by themselves.

For now we simply need to wait for technological breakthroughs that will give us cleaner AND cheaper source of energy. Lots of nasty states will suffer because of it.

 

 

 

I dont see that as a problem. Yes, it might shock the economy, but it would convince us to get off our butt and start investing in renewable energy. Which even if you dont believe in environmental change, makes sense from a purely economic point of view.

 

If they want to form an axis of evil with Russia and China, good luck to them. They might want to reflect on what happened to Syria and North Korea.


Edited by Stuart Galbraith, 19 December 2018 - 0846 AM.

  • 0

#20 urbanoid

urbanoid

    Crew

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 5,344 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Lodz, Poland

Posted 19 December 2018 - 0909 AM

We are investing in it anyway, we are looking for solutions and sooner or later we'll find them. Might just as well earn a few bucks in the meantime. A buck earned by the West and not earned by West's competitors at the same time makes two bucks.


Edited by urbanoid, 19 December 2018 - 0910 AM.

  • 0




0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users