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And We Are Off To The Races

German Elections 2013

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#1401 Panzermann

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Posted 10 July 2019 - 1443 PM

 

And now for the view from neutral Switzerland:

https://www.nzz.ch/i...zung-ld.1494762

We will have interesting times.


Yeah, good review of the arguments for and against. Also points out another factor that may have influenced the board's decision: in 2014, the AfD retroactively struck a candidate from their list for the state elections. The board let it pass at the time, but last year the Saxony State Court found it illegal. So they may have become stricter on formalities.

 

 
could be something as simple as not drinking enough, because the feel of thirst is missing. And has been claimed recently as the reason. My mother was like that. She had to put two tothree bottels of water on the kitchen table and control and force herself to empty them in  the evening to drink enough.

 

Or something more serious. I'll ready my biro for a snap election.  :ph34r:
 

Meanwhile, Merkel Shakes Again. I guess thrice makes it a legitimate topic of worry about the head of government's health. Not that she would be the first chancellor with such issues. Helmut Schmidt had multiple heart attacks and was found passed out in his office several times. He finally got a pacemaker, which was novel enough at the time to make it into the media despite the respect for politicians' privacy.

 
Considering how old Schnmidt became, it was actually advertisement for the manufactureres of such devices.


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#1402 Ssnake

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Posted 10 July 2019 - 1513 PM

Helmut Schmidt had multiple heart attacks and was found passed out in his office several times.

 

By his own admission, he passed out more than a hundred times while in office.


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#1403 Markus Becker

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Posted 12 July 2019 - 1424 PM

If there is any truth to this article times in Saxony will become too interesting for Simon Tan.

https://www.tichysei...rozent-wuerden/


Provided the math/guesstimate is close to correct the exclusion of 2/3 of the AfD candidates will result in a state parliament that doesn't even remotely reflect "the will of the voters"*.


*According to the Federal Constitutional Court this 'will of the voters' is what elections are about.
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#1404 Markus Becker

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Posted 13 July 2019 - 0525 AM

This just keeps getting better and better.

https://www.achgut.c...d_gefahren_wird

The decision to throw out 2/3 of the AfD candidates was allegedly taken after a debate that lasted three hours. If that's true, it shows that the commission had literally hours of room for interpretation which in turn indicates it was a political hit job by the parties that are going to loose the election.
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#1405 BansheeOne

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Posted 13 July 2019 - 0538 AM

That's frankly nonsense, as typical for the Achse des Guten. All that a debate lasting hours shows is that it took hours to debate an issue.
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#1406 Markus Becker

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Posted 13 July 2019 - 0610 AM

Considering that the authors used to be a politician with personal experience in this particular field I wouldn't discount his opinion. Especially not based on where he published it. Based on facts or not, who'd publish something that takes the side of the 'evils right wing populists'? Not the MSM.
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#1407 Panzermann

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Posted 13 July 2019 - 0644 AM

*According to the Federal Constitutional Court this 'will of the voters' is what elections are about. 

​

 

Which is why we have the current grand coalition, that nobody wanted. Cue the Tucholsky quote...  :glare:


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#1408 BansheeOne

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Posted 19 July 2019 - 1139 AM

Considering that the authors used to be a politician with personal experience in this particular field I wouldn't discount his opinion. Especially not based on where he published it. Based on facts or not, who'd publish something that takes the side of the 'evils right wing populists'? Not the MSM.

 

I also have personal experience in this particular field and can think of any number of reasons the debate took that long: They knew the decision would be controversial and wanted to make really sure they got unassailable arguments. They were actually looking for a way to not cut the list for fear of the controversy, and were searching for arguments against it. The AfD member on the board was extensively arguing against cutting the list (highly likely, actually), etc. If the debate had really taken just ten minutes, this guy would also have claimed that it showed the result was already set by sinister forces in advance.

 

Divorced from personal political opinions - I saw "Sympathizers" this week (currently available in the arte mediathek in German and French), a film about (mostly) artists and intellectuals who were accused of being same for the Red Army Faction in the heyday of the latter's terrorism in the 70s. Made by the son of actress-director Margarethe von Trotta, who was counted among them along with her partner Volker Schlöndorff and others like writer Heinrich Böll, which gave him easy access.

 

Despite his personal involvement - seems he was present as a ten-year-old kid when Italian police raided Schlöndorff's holiday retreat in search for some terrorists of the Red Brigades - he suceeds in developing a multi-faceted image; some of his interlocutors are rather defensive about their views back then, some rather candid that they were wrong; the son of Heinrich Böll is still bitter about the political attacks by government and media figures on his father, which he blames for his somewhat early death. The interviews are juxtaposed with period statements and critical movies.

 

Whatever you make of it - what I find striking and ironic are the parallels in attitude and language from both sides back then to the current discourse with the changed background of right- instead of left-wing extremism and terrorism, like the murder series of the National Socialist Underground and the recent assassination of Walter Lübcke. The accusations against sympathizers that they're enabling the violence of anti-constitutional actors from politics and media, and of the state acting quasi-fascist by those so labeled, the debates of what is a "sympathizer" in the first place and who gets instrumentalized by whom, are basically identical.

 

Meanwhile, though the Greens have slipped a couple points behind CDU/CSU again in national polls as the bandwagoning effect after the European elections wears off, they are still comfortably above 20 percent and are currently projected to win up to 51 districts directly if elections should be held this week.

 

btw21e_prognose_190717.png


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#1409 BansheeOne

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Posted 21 July 2019 - 0446 AM

Adding to the above - current national polls see CDU/CSU at 26-28, Greens three to five points behind at 22-25, SPD 13-14, AfD 12-14, Left and FDP both 8-9.

 

Ever-helpful election.de has a current projection for Saxony state districts, suggesting that the AfD's strategy to run a direct vote campaign in response to the cutting of their state list might indeed prevent an impact on their final result if their candidates in likely districts who got cut (red dots) make it on the primary vote.

 

sn19e_prognose_190718.png


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#1410 Panzermann

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Posted 21 July 2019 - 1343 PM

Interesting that the Linkspartei plays nearly no role with directly elected districts anymore. The SPD was traditionally weak in Saxonia anyway. The green districts are in the big cities as usual.


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