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Security Policy Implications Of A Trump Presidency


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#41 glenn239

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Posted 10 November 2016 - 1032 AM

Jason J Toasts to Donald.. We can become allies in Syria, allies in the Ukraine, stop funding to NATO.

 

 

The “establishment” policy (Bush-Obama) was to push western influence forward into Russia’s near abroad.  This is causing friction with Russia.  It’s possible for Trump to draw back on that agenda without throwing the EU or NATO under the bus, because neither Ukraine nor Georgia is in NATO.  It may be more in Brexit that the EU needs to takes Trump into account - he's got a soft spot for independently minded Britain and I understand it to be the case he's not big on monolithic leftist international entities pushing people around in the name of socialist ideals.


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#42 glenn239

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Posted 10 November 2016 - 1046 AM

Brian Kennedy I think it probably makes sense now for Western European countries to stop being resigned about the state of their militaries and to start improving them.

 

 

The west is heading over a fiscal cliff as budgets spiral upwards and revenue doesn’t.  Expect military spending to get worse, not better – either by budget cuts now or a catastrophic government funding crisis later as the easy money loans run out.

 

I think Trump's election is going to be disastrous in foreign-policy terms. I'm just saying that since the US elected a president who ran on an explicitly anti-Nato, pro-Russia platform, one would logically conclude that the security implications for Europe are that Europe is going to be on its own.

 

 

By that reasoning Apollo 11 either hits the Earth dead on or skips off the atmosphere into the sun, because apparently there’s no middle ground between two extreme options.?  Hey, instead of just assuming ahead of time Trump will go Momma Bear on this one, how about hope he goes Baby Bear instead?


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#43 Josh

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Posted 10 November 2016 - 1058 AM

 

Brian Kennedy I think it probably makes sense now for Western European countries to stop being resigned about the state of their militaries and to start improving them.

 

 

The west is heading over a fiscal cliff as budgets spiral upwards and revenue doesn’t.  Expect military spending to get worse, not better – either by budget cuts now or a catastrophic government funding crisis later as the easy money loans run out.

 

This is probably true for everyone actually.


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#44 JasonJ

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Posted 10 November 2016 - 1128 AM

Jason J Toasts to Donald.. We can become allies in Syria, allies in the Ukraine, stop funding to NATO.

 
The “establishment” policy (Bush-Obama) was to push western influence forward into Russia’s near abroad.  This is causing friction with Russia.  It’s possible for Trump to draw back on that agenda without throwing the EU or NATO under the bus, because neither Ukraine nor Georgia is in NATO.  It may be more in Brexit that the EU needs to takes Trump into account - he's got a soft spot for independently minded Britain and I understand it to be the case he's not big on monolithic leftist international entities pushing people around in the name of socialist ideals.

Fortunately, the US isn't and doesn't show signs of, doing what that suggests to Taiwan in respects to China.
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#45 glenn239

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Posted 10 November 2016 - 1211 PM

Unless China implodes in the meantime Taiwan's drift back towards Beijing is the most likely outcome, like a planet spiralling inwards towards its star.


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#46 JasonJ

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Posted 10 November 2016 - 1249 PM

Unless China implodes in the meantime Taiwan's drift back towards Beijing is the most likely outcome, like a planet spiralling inwards towards its star.


Dont get your hopes up.

http://www.japantime...6/#.WCSzoXgay0c
http://www.taipeitim...6/29/2003565930
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#47 urbanoid

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Posted 10 November 2016 - 1303 PM

I could add a ton of articles about Taiwanese history, Taiwansese identity and its trends, especially among young people, but meh, waste of time.


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#48 Nobu

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Posted 10 November 2016 - 1334 PM

The military and economic implications for India and Indians will be interesting, as they are fundamentally more reliant on heavier counterweights such as the United States for economic and political security.

 

U.S. trade policy rectification will hurt thirdworlders the hardest. Trump doesn't do charity very well. 


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#49 sunday

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Posted 10 November 2016 - 1338 PM

Duterte making opening moves?

http://www.reuters.c...s-idUSKBN13412N
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#50 urbanoid

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Posted 10 November 2016 - 1343 PM

The military and economic implications for India and Indians will be interesting, as they are fundamentally more reliant on heavier counterweights such as the United States for economic and political security.

 

U.S. trade policy rectification will hurt thirdworlders the hardest. Trump doesn't do charity very well. 

What's the point of bringing (very)low paying jobs back to the US? I guess Trump-sama would rather try to bring more of a high-end production back. In this case it would be quite the opposite.

 

India was an unaligned state since independence and they were never too reliant on any country.


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#51 Nobu

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Posted 10 November 2016 - 1344 PM

The implications for continued expansion of the Japanese armed forces are excellent. Okinawans and their ilk in support of a smaller U.S. military footprint on Japan and Japanese are likely happier as well.

 

One silver lining for Japan could be the steady withdrawal of U.S. corporations out of the Chinese market, triggered by a gradually escalating U.S. policy of trade rectification that Trump will have great difficulty backtracking from. This should in fact be encouraged by Japan, as it would leave behind a massive market vacuum for goods and services that Japan Inc. and Japanese are ideally positioned to fill.


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#52 urbanoid

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Posted 10 November 2016 - 1350 PM

Implications for continued expansion of the Japanese military were present before Trump and nothing changed in that regard.

 

Expect the Chinese to push for replacement of foreign products and services with domestic ones, if possible. Wishful thinking is just that.


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#53 Nobu

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Posted 10 November 2016 - 1416 PM

I will respectfully disagree with you on the implications of a more isolationist United States under President Trump on the continuing expansion of the Japanese Navy and Japan's military budget as a whole.

 

If Japanese products were replaceable by American products from a quality standpoint, Toyota Motor Company would not enjoy the dominance it does so today. If American goods and services are replaceable by inferior Chinese products from a quality standpoint, that would speak volumes on what American quality really is, in various ways.

 

A steady exit of American corporations from the Chinese market would not be a guarantee of Japanese success, merely an opportunity.

 

Whether you think Japan Inc capable of exploiting such opportunities, I leave to your own consideration.


Edited by Nobu, 10 November 2016 - 1418 PM.

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#54 Tim the Tank Nut

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Posted 10 November 2016 - 1503 PM

Duterte's act isn't going to get him very far w/ Donald


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#55 Dark_Falcon

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Posted 10 November 2016 - 1526 PM

Duterte's act isn't going to get him very far w/ Donald

 

He's scaling it back.  I also think Duterte holds Trump in better regard than Obama.  He made pretty clear he thinks Obama is a weakling and that he thinks Trump much stronger.


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#56 Roman Alymov

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Posted 10 November 2016 - 1559 PM

What's the point of bringing (very)low paying jobs back to the US? I guess Trump-sama would rather try to bring more of a high-end production back. In this case it would be quite the opposite.

 

 

  There is a giant difference between low paying job and no job at all. Low paid jobs still able to sustain reliable and self-respecting comunities. No jobs ruin them.


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#57 Colin

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Posted 10 November 2016 - 1646 PM

Agreed, even low paying manufacturing is better than no job or a low paying service job. I suspect you see China hit with various "Anti-dumping" tariffs, Canada is going to struggle with the softwood accord and likely Trump will tie trade concessions to Canada beefing up it's military and security requirements. Keystone will likely get a green light as well.


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#58 Agiel

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Posted 10 November 2016 - 1829 PM

I imagine on January 21st or soon after the next thing Wikileaks gets turned loose on are the big frakkers. After all, they are at least indirectly responsible for oil prices being where they are and countries like Russia are in deep doo-doo if they don't go back to $100+, fast. Chances of Trump bowing to public pressure to curb frakking? Low, to say nothing of pipeline projects that will go into overdrive to further cement the US as a swing producer. Add that to the myriad of things he and Putin could potentially butt heads over.


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#59 JasonJ

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Posted 10 November 2016 - 1845 PM

I will respectfully disagree with you on the implications of a more isolationist United States under President Trump on the continuing expansion of the Japanese Navy and Japan's military budget as a whole.
 
If Japanese products were replaceable by American products from a quality standpoint, Toyota Motor Company would not enjoy the dominance it does so today. If American goods and services are replaceable by inferior Chinese products from a quality standpoint, that would speak volumes on what American quality really is, in various ways.
 
A steady exit of American corporations from the Chinese market would not be a guarantee of Japanese success, merely an opportunity.
 
Whether you think Japan Inc capable of exploiting such opportunities, I leave to your own consideration.

The more Japanese expand their presence in the Chinese market, the more China will think they own Japan. It could make China more bold in expansion in the western Pacific and on the Senkaku islands and the US will just sit back and say "Have fun Japs"

I think there is a temptation to want the US to leave with Japan beefing itself up some more. But things are so complex today and vast. Take military capabilities.. if Japan was to welcome a US leave, they would need their own aircraft carriers, their own nuclear arsenal, at least double the manpower of the military, double the number of aircraft, and so. Japan needs to keep in mind that it is a middle weight and not a heavy weight. Japan may have good relations with neighbors such as Taiwan and the Philippines. But that is not the same as having them as part of Japan. Those countries still have their own nationalities and desire for free determination.

The most stable and strongest force is the combination of both the US and Japan together.

Edited by JasonJ, 10 November 2016 - 1848 PM.

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#60 Nobu

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Posted 10 November 2016 - 1848 PM

The fascination with returning the low-paying plastic dogshit manufacturing sector back to America from Bangladesh never ceases to impress.

 

Domestic low-paying low-quality manufacturing is fine until the manufacturer can't make its unionized, health-insured, $15 minwage-ified payroll because it is unable to price compete or afford strict firstworld environmental industrial waste compliance regulation.

 

Agree with urbanoid's first response regarding all this: idiocy. Firstworlders do not need to covet or think like thirdworlders.


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