375 replies to this topic

[crazyinsane105]

In the past few weeks, there has been a flurry of news reports pointing to different arms deals the Iranians are contemplating with Russia. Probably a good idea to track them all on this thread.....

 

BTW, any venting about the nuke deal or lifting of sanctions should be done on other threads. Let's keep this one strictly focused on potential military contracts, not politics..

 

http://www.valuewalk...rs-russia-deal/

 

Not surprised about thisone, though I'm curious what version and how many aircraft the deal with encompass.

 

http://www.dailytime...-defence-system

 

Deliveries are to start very soon, possibly in a month or two.

 

http://en.trend.az/i...cs/2488835.html

 

I found this to be interesting...the Iranians are turning down the T-90 for their own domestically produced tanks? I think this is due to a lack of funds and other pressing priorities (SAM's and Sukhois are much more useful against Iran's adversaries instead of T-90s).

 

http://www.presstv.i...rs-sanctions--/

 

Haven't heard too much detail about this one.

Edited by crazyinsane105, 11 February 2016 - 0355 AM.

[JasonJ]

I find it hard to believe that Iran can domestically produce a tank that will be somewhat comparable to the other MBTs in the region such as M1A2S or Atlay. Any domestically produced tank will be based on under the table designs T-90 IMO.

[crazyinsane105]

Agreed. From Iran's perspective, it probably makes sense to hold off on large scale MBT procurement. They don't have a formidable land opponent at the moment so why bother upgrading their army with T-90s?

[JasonJ]

Agreed. From Iran's perspective, it probably makes sense to hold off on large scale MBT procurement. They don't have a formidable land opponent at the moment so why bother upgrading their army with T-90s?

 

I could go on but that of course gets into the mixed pot of speculation and politics

[alejandro_]

 They don't have a formidable land opponent at the moment so why bother upgrading their army with T-90s?

 

I have been following the news to see if new contracts are signed. Main talk are Su-30s and T-90s. According to Russian press there are still some restrictions, which is why the equipment would be produced under license. 

[alejandro_]

 They don't have a formidable land opponent at the moment so why bother upgrading their army with T-90s?

 

I have been following the news to see if new contracts are signed. Main talk are Su-30s and T-90s. According to Russian press there are still some restrictions, which is why the equipment would be produced under license. 

[T19]

Now they can get part for their F14s

[Ken Estes]

There is some justice with readmitting them to the global economy at the point that oil prices are bottoming.

[DesertEagle]

Low oil prices are the silver lining, if you could call it that. My question is how many Su-30's can the Iranians get their hands on. Iran's immediate neighbors have have already spent lavishly on their air forces.

[Simon Tan]

Many. I would be very surprised if they don't already have a Su- cadre.

[urbanoid]

I guess they may want a license.

[crazyinsane105]

Low oil prices are the silver lining, if you could call it that. My question is how many Su-30's can the Iranians get their hands on. Iran's immediate neighbors have have already spent lavishly on their air forces.

Except their neighbors (minus Israel and Pakistan) are quite incompetent with their fancy equipment.

I'm surprised that the Iranians are opting for the Su30 and not the 35.

[crazyinsane105]

There is some justice with readmitting them to the global economy at the point that oil prices are bottoming.

It is at the bottom now. Who knows where it will be within a decade, and that's when all conventional arms sales to Iran will be legal.

[urbanoid]

Except their neighbors (minus Israel and Pakistan) are quite incompetent with their fancy equipment.

 

Are you sure that's also true wrt to the Air Force? Saudi pilots are individually training in the US, what they have is F-15 with AESA radar and AMRAAMs / Typhoon with Meteors and AWACS on top of that. It's similar with the rest of GCC.

[JasonJ]

There is some justice with readmitting them to the global economy at the point that oil prices are bottoming.

It is at the bottom now. Who knows where it will be within a decade, and that's when all conventional arms sales to Iran will be legal.

But still, with sanctions being relaxed, it's supposed to mean it's time for money making to get the economy going. But with oil at $26 a barrel, the jump start effect will be weak which should imply all sorts of other economic development delays.

[Panzermann]

But still, with sanctions being relaxed, it's supposed to mean it's time for money making to get the economy going. But with oil at $26 a barrel, the jump start effect will be weak which should imply all sorts of other economic development delays.

So not much has changed for Iran at the moment and they somehow made do so far with sanctions.

[JasonJ]

But still, with sanctions being relaxed, it's supposed to mean it's time for money making to get the economy going. But with oil at $26 a barrel, the jump start effect will be weak which should imply all sorts of other economic development delays.

So not much has changed for Iran at the moment and they somehow made do so far with sanctions.

When they had the sanctions, oil was much higher in price. They couldn't sell as much oil but it was worth more. Now they can sell more oil but now it's worth a lot less. So sanction relief won't feel much different because of cheap oil. Unless their other industries can pick up the slack.

[Simon Tan]

Fear leads to anger.

Edited by Simon Tan, 12 February 2016 - 0629 AM.

[Gregory]

 

 

But still, with sanctions being relaxed, it's supposed to mean it's time for money making to get the economy going. But with oil at $26 a barrel, the jump start effect will be weak which should imply all sorts of other economic development delays.

So not much has changed for Iran at the moment and they somehow made do so far with sanctions.

When they had the sanctions, oil was much higher in price. They couldn't sell as much oil but it was worth more. Now they can sell more oil but now it's worth a lot less. So sanction relief won't feel much different because of cheap oil. Unless their other industries can pick up the slack.

 

 

Very true.  By my back of the envelope calculations, during the under the sanctions in 2012-2014 Iran was getting about $150 million/day from oil exports.  Now, with sanctions removed it'll be getting about $75 million.

[swerve]

Recent sales have been worth a lot less than a couple of years ago. Prices fell long before the end of sanctions, so there's no downside to the end of sanctions.

 

Iran has a lot of assets overseas which have been frozen under sanctions.