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Tanker War Redux


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#441 JasonJ

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Posted 11 October 2019 - 0536 AM

Oh.. that's in the red sea this one.


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#442 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 11 October 2019 - 0538 AM

Well, there is a lot of water in the world. They need to reflect on the idea that they can dominate the Gulf, but they arent even a bit player in the rest of the worlds oceans, as the Grace 1 fiasco and this one somewhat illustrates.

 

I suppose the most likely culpret is the Saudi's, it would be a nice payback for the attack on the oil refinery. Somewhat ballsy for them though.


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#443 Adam Peter

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Posted 11 October 2019 - 1400 PM

They have an ally there with a record of proven capability ...


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#444 Josh

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Posted 11 October 2019 - 2114 PM

The UAE is usually the puppet master and the place that handles the more subtle things the KSA is incapable of. MbS has nothing on MbZ.
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#445 Nobu

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Posted 12 October 2019 - 2243 PM

Things just got a little more interesting now that the Saudis have realized they can hurt Iran and Iranians on their own. Planning for a return visit to downtown Ploesti may be in the works.
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#446 glenn239

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Posted 15 October 2019 - 0740 AM

Could be, but I think the safe money is on a Saudi-Iranian détente.  The Saudis were no doubt shocked at the reaction in the progressive West to the murder of Khashoggi, and then shocked again at Trump's reaction to the refinery attack.  They'll probably cool down the situation with Iran while building bridges to Russia and China.  On a related note, Putin is in the Kingdom seemingly pitching that exact message.  For the Iranian part, they're much better off reaching an accomodation with the Saudis than fighting them. 


Edited by glenn239, 15 October 2019 - 0741 AM.

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#447 Nobu

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Posted 16 October 2019 - 1114 AM

It may be too soon to tell, but it looks as if the Iranians have chalked up the missile attack on its tanker as a face-saving gesture on the part of the Saudis, and are treating it as such.

 

This would indeed represent movement toward de-escalation.


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#448 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 16 October 2019 - 1116 AM

There is nothing they can do about it. Anything they do will make it happen more often.
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#449 Nobu

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Posted 16 October 2019 - 1148 AM

That probably is not going to sit well with the Iranians, but it may be a reality they will have to deal with from now on.

 

The question is whether time is on their side or not.


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#450 glenn239

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Posted 16 October 2019 - 1256 PM

The question is what the Saudis are going to do.  There are signs lately theyv'e lost trust in the USA.  CNN here,

 

https://www.cnn.com/...intl/index.html

 

Putin is in the Kingdom now.  We'll see if he gets any arms deals.  


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#451 Nobu

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Posted 16 October 2019 - 1338 PM

Definitely a situation for Japan and Japanese to monitor, as there may be value in learning from the experiences of those currently involved in it.


Edited by Nobu, 16 October 2019 - 1343 PM.

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#452 Josh

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Posted 16 October 2019 - 2309 PM

Nobu, I find you singularly annoying in that you see any tragedy through the experience of Japan as a benefit or loss. It is the same bullshit I dislike with my countrymen. Is your absolute position that anything that benefits Japan is good, regardless of who dies or what morals are forsaken? Because that seems to be the jist of your posts. Not that I think you would notice, but I think I might ignore you. You don't particularly bring anything to the table and you are generally ok with any amount of butchery so long as Japan has a more advantageous position.


Edited by Josh, 16 October 2019 - 2309 PM.

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#453 Nobu

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Posted 17 October 2019 - 0052 AM

I go with my gut when I post, for better or worse. It is what I feel and believe. I don’t see my perspectives changing anytime soon.

With regard to the morality of them, no offense taken.
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#454 JasonJ

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Posted 17 October 2019 - 0142 AM

Nobu, I find you singularly annoying in that you see any tragedy through the experience of Japan as a benefit or loss. It is the same bullshit I dislike with my countrymen. Is your absolute position that anything that benefits Japan is good, regardless of who dies or what morals are forsaken? Because that seems to be the jist of your posts. Not that I think you would notice, but I think I might ignore you. You don't particularly bring anything to the table and you are generally ok with any amount of butchery so long as Japan has a more advantageous position.


Well said Josh.

But the thing he often misses that Japan needs very much is international cooperation. If Japan took a blatant "Japan-first" appraoch, then it'll make it harder to get the much needed international cooperation. Unlike Russia and the US, Japan has no energy resources and has developed an allergy to nuclear power. Much less room for error. Throw on top of that Earthquakes and Typhoons.
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#455 JasonJ

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Posted 19 October 2019 - 0938 AM

Japan decides to make preparations for dispatching a destroyer on an independent mission to the Gulf of Oman by the end of the year. Information will be shared with the US. A P-3C may also join the dispatch.

The government on Friday decided to launch a detailed study to prepare for independently dispatching a Maritime Self-Defense Force unit to the Middle East to collect information on securing the safety of sea lanes in the region.

The decision was made at a National Security Council meeting of four ministers held at the Prime Ministers Office on the same day. The government is making preparations to dispatch an MSDF destroyer by the end of this year.

Japan will take independent measures to ensure peace and stability in the Middle East region and the safety of ships related to our country, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said at a press conference on Friday.

Japan will not participate in a U.S.-proposed maritime security initiative that aims to protect ships in the Strait of Hormuz, he said.

Based on that decision, Suga also said, The government will consider the possibility of dispatching vessels and using units for antipiracy operations as new assets.

The legal grounds for such operations are based on a provision on survey and research activities in the Defense Ministry Establishment Law, he said.

An MSDF unit will likely be dispatched mainly to the Gulf of Oman, which is connected to the Strait of Hormuz, the high seas in the northern part of the Arabian Sea and the high seas east of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait off Yemen, Suga said. He did not mention the Strait of Hormuz itself.

In principle, the unit planned for dispatch will not escort Japan-related vessels because the situation does not require immediate protection of such ships, Suga explained.

However, he also said the government would consider further measures necessary to ensure the safety of the ships. The government is expected to consider issuing maritime patrol operations to protect the vessels, if necessary.

The MSDF currently has one destroyer and two P-3C patrol aircraft dispatched in operations to crack down on pirates in the Gulf of Aden off Somalia. In addition to sending a destroyer, the government is considering using a P-3C plane, which is currently operating in the Gulf of Aden.

In the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters, U.S. President Donald Trump said in June that countries should be protecting their own ships. In late July, the U.S. government asked Japan to join the U.S.-led maritime security initiative.

However, Japan has maintained good relations with Iran, with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visiting the country in June. After a meeting with Trump in New York in September, Abe said, Japans unique steering [through this situation] is required.

Decision based on Trump summits

More than 80 percent of the crude oil imported by Japan passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and a tanker operated by a Japanese shipping company was attacked off the coast of Oman in June, prompting a senior Foreign Ministry source to say, [Japan] cant help but do something.

Japan sent officials to a meeting at which the U.S. State Department and U.S. Forces explained the initiative, to find out what the United States really wants. The government then decided that the United States would not take issue if Japan presented its own plan to send destroyers and other vessels to the area, even if Japan did not participate in the initiative to escort tankers. This decision was reached because U.S. President Donald Trump had barely mentioned the plan at Japan-U.S. summits in August and September, and because there has been no recurrence of attacks on Japanese vessels.

However, the government does plan to provide information obtained by the Self-Defense Forces to the United States, thereby indirectly contributing to the initiative.

The government also decided not to take part in the U.S. plan because it places importance on maintaining friendly relations with Iran over the long-term.

At a press conference, Suga said that the purpose of the MSDF dispatch is to gather information and that he has kept the timing of the dispatch obscure. He did not directly refer to the Strait of Hormuz, saying only the Gulf of Oman. This is apparently aimed at not provoking Iran.

A source related to the Japanese government said, If the situation calms down and there is no need for an MSDF destroyer in the future, it is best not to dispatch one.

https://the-japan-ne...b80e52bb1bae414

Edited by JasonJ, 19 October 2019 - 0939 AM.

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#456 JasonJ

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Posted 20 October 2019 - 0857 AM

A second destroyer to join the dispatch to the Gulf of Oman will be coming over from doing the anti-piracy work that has been going on in the Gulf of Aden.

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan is eyeing assigning two Self-Defense Forces vessels to help protect Middle East waterways under a dispatch plan under consideration, a government source said Saturday.

An SDF ship currently in the Gulf of Aden off the coast of Yemen to crack down on pirate activities will be sent on the planned new mission, joined by another ship to be dispatched from Japan, the source said.

The Defense Ministry does not want to newly send two or more ships from Japan to the Middle East given the growing significance for SDF activities in waters around Japan amid North Korean missile threats, according to the source.

The vessels will be allowed to use force to defend Japanese merchant vessels under attack, the source said.

Japan initially sent two vessels to the Gulf of Aden in 2009 but brought one back in 2016 as pirate incidents decreased.

The government said Friday it would not join a U.S.-led coalition to guard shipping traveling through the Strait of Hormuz amid tensions involving Iran.

The United States has formed a coalition to protect the Middle Eastern sea lanes following attacks on two oil tankers, one operated by a Japanese shipping firm, near the strait in June, for which Washington blamed Iran.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga has said the Gulf of Oman, the northern part of the Arabian Sea and the eastern part of the Bab el-Mandeb strait, connecting the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden would be potential locations for the dispatch.

Japan has refrained from making a decision on the U.S. initiative partly because it does not want to damage its traditionally friendly relations with Iran.

Sending SDF personnel overseas is a sensitive issue in Japan as entanglement in a foreign conflict could violate the country's war-renouncing Constitution.
https://mainichi.jp/...00m/0na/004000c
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