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And We Are Off To The Races

German Elections 2013

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#1261 Daan

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Posted 08 December 2018 - 0419 AM

I saw AKK on TV yesterday, she really oozes charisma.
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#1262 BansheeOne

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Posted 08 December 2018 - 0450 AM

That's naughty. :D

 

(In fact the last CDU leader with charisma was Wolfgang Schäuble. Or, if we're talking chancellors ... Konrad Adenauer.)

 

It has been suggested that the winner will chose somebody representing what he/she doesnt to unite the party after the somewhat divisive campaign; AKK a conservative man - possibly Carsten Linneman, head of the CDU's powerful medium businesses association, or Young Conservatives president Paul Ziemiak

 

AKK has now nominated Ziemiak, which covers the young male conservative angle. Polish-born, friends with Jens Spahn (who was himself elected to the CDU's executive committee with an 89-percent vote as a sop; he has of course lots of political mileage left to rise further). People have also called upon Friedrich Merz to continue serving the party in a leading position, though he hasn't reacted to that yet.

 

ETA: Ziemiak elected with a 63-percent vote, which is surprisingly low and not particularly indicative of the party reuniting.


Edited by BansheeOne, 08 December 2018 - 0515 AM.

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#1263 seahawk

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Posted 08 December 2018 - 0552 AM

Merkel has Charisma imho. The speech she gave in front of the CDU members reflected this. She is not a politician who takes the job to increase his/her own standing, she really sees herself as working for the country.  She even made fun of her own leadership style and was quite on point when talking about weak points during her time, but  imho it was real when she said that it was an honour for her to serve the party and country for such a long time. In today´s world her leadership style will be missed.


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#1264 Simon Tan

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Posted 08 December 2018 - 0920 AM

She is quite hideous.


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#1265 Panzermann

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Posted 08 December 2018 - 1400 PM

The Age of "Der Krampenbauer"(!!!!!!!) has begun......

 

YOu could trnaslate "Karrenbauer" as car builder- befitting a german chancellor.


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#1266 DB

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Posted 08 December 2018 - 1406 PM

This is going to be fun. At least British news Announcers could just about pronounce Angela Merkel's (with a hard-ish g). AKK completely eludes them so far.


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#1267 BansheeOne

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Posted 09 December 2018 - 0540 AM

They will just have to go with AKK then, akin to JFK ... though the glamour gap couldn't be greater. :D

 

The Merz fanbase seems pretty pissed by the narrow defeat, as shown in the mediocre result for Paul Ziemiak as her pick for the secretary general post. Apparently they see him at best as a turncoat, and some are spreading conspiracy theories that as head of the Young Conservatives which had previously endorsed Jens Spahn, he engineered the youth vote to go to AKK in the run-off.

 

The official story is that she had asked him first before the election, but he declined on the reason that he wouldn't vote for her; he hadn't made any personal preference known himself, probably because he is also from Merz's district of the Sauerland. She then hit him up again after her election on the side of the dancefloor at the Young Conservatives regular disco night on Saturday, and he agreed. The story has been questioned even by neutral observers, but knowing JU dance nights, I wouldn't rule it out. ;)

 

AKK herself has stated that under her, there is going to be a more equilibrious triangle between cabinet, Bundestag group and the party-at-large, and she is going to contradict Angela Merkel where necessary. That's obviously part of the attempt to re-unite the party, countering her image as a Mini-Merkel,* and responding to the far-spread sentiment that the party has long been treated as a mere adjunct to government policy, which already led to the minor revolt of replacing Merkel's confident Volker Kauder as leader of the CDU/CSU Bundestag group in summer.

 

 

* ETA - as a current cartoon sees it: :D

 

image-1371201-galleryV9-tanh-1371201.jpg


Edited by BansheeOne, 09 December 2018 - 0549 AM.

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#1268 seahawk

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Posted 09 December 2018 - 0631 AM

The CDU would be as stupid as the SPD, if they do not recognize that Merz would haver been a huge mistake. Not because of his political positions but because of his background and personality. Every opponent would have had a field day talking about his career in investment banking and his personal wealth he acquired doing so. AKK is boring but has the advantage of having few open flanks for attack and she is quite down to earth when meeting normal citizens - just like Merkel.

 

Merz would be attacked for his career in banking by the left and the AFD would probably use his leadership in the Atlantik-Brücke to discredit him. https://en.wikipedia...tlantik-BrückeAnd given his arrogance he would be triggered.


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#1269 BansheeOne

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Posted 09 December 2018 - 0727 AM

I have to say I like Merz's positions, but not his style. I don't mind his business or financial background, and least of all his transatlanticism; arguably, he would have been better for giving the CDU a clear profile again, winning back conservatives and rekindling political competition across the board. But while a healthy self-esteem is required for any politician, and bluff no-nonsense talk can be endearing in one, he comes across entirely too self-centered for me.

 

Peer Steinbrück's disastrous 2009 campaign for the SPD springs to mind, where he exhibited much the same attributes; and of course there's the whole messianism surrounding Martin Schulz who was celebrated as an authentic Social Democrat returning the party to its roots. For which he was never the type - people just projected all their hope on somebody who had been out of the focus of national politics as speaker of the EU Parliament, not dissimilar to Merz's decade in private business.

 

Alexander Gauland of the AfD noted something I think is quite correct: Merz wouldn't have hurt the far right in East Germany where it's strongest too much, because to their voters there he is an evil capitalist American puppet. Not that AKK is going to be a much better sell in the East - Gauland opined that Jens Spahn would have been the greatest challenge - but she sure doesn't carry the same burden of being perceived as an aloof representative of a sinister rich international elite. It's hard to paint her like that when she still lives in the town of less than 20,000 where she grew up and raised three children (of course the Saarland isn't particularly big, wealthy or glamorous in the first place, certain glamour couples of the Left Party notwithstanding).


Edited by BansheeOne, 09 December 2018 - 0728 AM.

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#1270 Panzermann

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Posted 09 December 2018 - 1146 AM

Not that AKK is going to be a much better sell in the East

 

 

Well, Honecker was from the Saarland, too. that could work for as well as against her in the former DDR.


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#1271 Simon Tan

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Posted 09 December 2018 - 1310 PM

A German Jupiter....shame.....
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#1272 Markus Becker

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Posted 09 December 2018 - 1444 PM


The Age of "Der Krampenbauer"(!!!!!!!) has begun......

 
YOu could trnaslate "Karrenbauer" as car builder- befitting a german chancellor.

Mrs. Krampus maybe, thought that's an American thing.

In related news. A Green wants to ban Knecht Ruprecht.

https://www.zeit.de/...n-josefine-gaul
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#1273 BansheeOne

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Posted Yesterday, 07:48 AM

A week after the CDU leadership decision, the party has continued its rebound in the polls to generally cross the magical 30-percent line again; that's three to six points up from their October low and comes mostly at the expense of the Greens, who have dropped three to five from their corresponding high. I'm a little surprised the AfD hasn't risen further, too, but in fact dropped back to 13-15 percent after it recently looked like they were also recovering from their low during the Green high. I would have thought that selection of the notionally most liberal CDU candidate, the "Mini-Merkel", would make conservative fence-sitters revert back to them.

 

There are various possible explanations of course. One is that AKK successfully distanced herself from her previous image during the campaign, and in fact came across as more conservative than her competitors on some positions like (the long-settled issue of) same-sex marriage. Then again maybe it's just the attraction of a fresh start after 18 years of Merkel's leadership per se, and particularly the unusually lively public campaigning in a party that used to select its heads in backroom deals, sometimes keeping them for donkey years (Konrad Adenauer served for 20 if you include his pre-FRG time in the British Zone of Occupation, Helmut Kohl for 25).

 

Forsa numbers indicate that the CDU low coincided with a high of undecideds/non-voters, and the latter's numbers shrunk again parallel to the party's subsequent rise, so the process seems to have activated voters either way. It's impossible to know how election of another candidate would have turned out, obviously. There is of course the possibility that the AfD is failing to attract more conservatives due to its increasing radicalism, too.

 

AKKs primary challenge remains to reunite the party, particularly regarding the Merz fanbase who keep acting as rather unsporting losers, in contrast to their candidate himself. The latter still hasn't responded on calls to continue serving the CDU in a leading role however, though some supporters have called for him to become minister of economy in lieu of Merkel's close confidant Peter Altmaier, who pissed them of by endorsing AKK in response to Bundestag speaker Wolfgang Schäuble coming out for Merz.

 

That would be Merkel's call though, and most observers don't see her elevating her old rival after she has now ceded the party leadership and announced not to run for chancellor or any other political office in 2021 again; particularly since her serving out the term is now all but secured by her own candidate's election. If AKK is serious about giving the party-at-large greater weight again, she might of course push a little for what is good for the latter, not the chancellor's personal preferences. Overall though, Merkel is likely to become the first chancellor who leaves office on her own terms rather than being voted out or falling victim to changing parliamentary coalitions.

 

ETA: The current national poll numbers are also reflected in a current INSA survey for the upcoming European Parliament elections next May: CDU/CSU 30, Greens 17.5, SPD 16.5, AfD 14.5, Left 9.5, FDP 9.0. Fringe parties usually do better in European election because they're an outlet for protest votes, since they "don't matter". However, there's nothing of that to be seen here, even with notoriously fringe-friendly INSA. Well, unless you call the SPD a "fringe party" now ...


Edited by BansheeOne, Yesterday, 08:45 AM.

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#1274 Panzermann

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Posted Yesterday, 09:40 AM

Well, unless you call the SPD a "fringe party" now ...

 

 

Mission under 5% is going very well!


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#1275 Markus Becker

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Posted Yesterday, 09:59 AM

that's three to six points up from their October low and comes mostly at the expense of the Greens

Not much if a silver lining but at least the bigger evil got hurt. I take it.

Edited by Markus Becker, Yesterday, 10:00 AM.

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#1276 TonyE

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Posted Yesterday, 10:15 AM

Ah, 2021......the possibilities.....

c54da5ac-16ae-48d4-85f4-a20cc4a88fc5.gif


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#1277 Simon Tan

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Posted Yesterday, 01:02 PM

Another Austrian born Chancellor for the Reich.
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