375 replies to this topic

[JasonJ]

Eh...all this talk about Gwadar and Chabahar are just wish-wash right now. Gwadar was supposed to become operational a decade ago, but to date it can't even compete with Karachi in terms of how many commercial ships actually utilize the port. The recent 45 billion dollar promised investment from China might change this, but again, it's really up in the air. There have been many rumors of the Chinese using Gwadar as a naval base, but again, nearly a decade after inauguration, there hasn't been much Chinese naval activity in that area. 
 
Chabahar will very likely go down the same path. Assuming that port actually becomes operational, what incentive is there for ships to utilize Chabahar or Gwadar versus the massive ports in the Gulf countries? Naval bases sound awesome, except they don't generate nearly as much revenue as commercial ports do. It also won't make much financial sense for either Iran or Pakistan to build a port just so a foreign navy can utilize it.

Lots of people thought China's 9 dash line claim was silly and a lot of hype as well, but then they started the man-made island construction. People thought economic ties would keep tensions raising further, but that has not been the case. PLA Navy is very young in blue water Navy standards. I don't know about the circumstances before China's involvement but China's involvement changes the potential factor by a lot. Planners from all around will have to take it into account now.

 
Except that took place in China. The Chinese can do just about anything in their own country....in Pakistan, not so much. Also, most of the 45 billion dollar is pledged. It is to be seen whether even half of that is delivered to Pakistan, and judging by how often international donors (including China) pledge developmental funds to Pakistan yet rarely pay the full amount, I'm not very optimistic...

The 9 dash line area does not belong to China.

Fortunately, China's economy is on the slowdown. So they may not be able to pursue stated plans with the port. We'll see.

[swerve]

 

 

Lots of people thought China's 9 dash line claim was silly and a lot of hype as well, but then they started the man-made island construction. People thought economic ties would keep tensions raising further, but that has not been the case. PLA Navy is very young in blue water Navy standards. I don't know about the circumstances before China's involvement but China's involvement changes the potential factor by a lot. Planners from all around will have to take it into account now.

 

 

Except that took place in China. The Chinese can do just about anything in their own country....

 

Errr - no. The reason why there's a fuss about the 9-dash line is because it is NOT in China. It's in international waters & the waters of other countries. It's like ... oooh ...  Iran announcing that the Persian Gulf up to a few miles from the coasts of the UAE, Saudi Arabia, etc. is Iranian territorial waters, & justifying it on the basis of fishermen from the Persian Empire fishing in those waters.

 

Hey! Portugal could claim the sea up to Newfoundland on that basis!  The EU Common Fisheries Policy now applies to the Grand Banks. 

Edited by swerve, 06 July 2016 - 0934 AM.

[bojan]

IDK, Island did some pretty shady things in the Cod Wars and they got them legitimized.

[swerve]

Iceland extended its fisheries zone to 50 nautical miles - & got it recognised. The UK was unusual in objecting. Most affected countries accepted the Icelandic move because they were thinking of similar moves themselves. Things were already moving that way, with international discussions about EEZs up to the current 200 nm. All that was codified & internationally accepted under UNCLOS. The Icelanders wouldn't have done it if they hadn't seen that they had a following wind.

 

What China's doing now is saying that it accepts UNCLOS & wants its provisions enforced - except in the South China Sea, which is different from every other piece of sea in the world because China says so & don't you dare argue!

[JasonJ]

But at the same time, China is not a bully and is being victimized.

[Panzermann]

IDK, Island did some pretty shady things in the Cod Wars and they got them legitimized.

As swerve explains, when the cod wars happened it was shady and a bit premature. The world was moving into that direction though.

But since then we have the 200 nautical miles zones off the coast. And "coast" may mean a rock barely sticking out of the ocean surface. These most recent rules are the biggest run for claims in history. But apart from the Spratleys etc. susprisingly peaceful so far.

[Panzermann]

But at the same time, China is not a bully and is being victimized.

Reminds me of third wave feminism each tine I read something PRC puts something out. Oh poor china, always violated by evil western colonial powers. Really, since Mao took power that has not been the case anymore.

[swerve]

 

But since then we have the 200 nautical miles zones off the coast. And "coast" may mean a rock barely sticking out of the ocean surface. 

 

Actually, no. "Rocks, shoals and reefs" are specifically excluded under UNCLOS rules from having territorial waters or EEZs.  China's objection to Japan's claim of territorial waters & an EEZ around Okinotorishima is based on this exclusion.

[JasonJ]

A major point that people seem to continually overlook is that China's 9 dash line grossly violates the EEZ boundaries of the Philippines and Vietnam. And China talks as if it, not the Philippines, follows the UNCLOS rules properly. It is so outrageously wrong.

 

 

Scarborough Shoal is within the EEZ of the Philippines. Yet PRC coast guard ships go there and block the Philippine fishermen from fishing there. They blocked it for 4 years. It was only a month or two ago that they stopped because of the up coming tribunal and an attempt to carrot the new Philippine president.

 

If you carefully compare the map above and the next map, you will see how Mischief reef is also within the EEZ of the Philippines.

 

 

Mischief reef is 250km from Palawan island. Palawan island is the long slim Philippine island. So MIschief Reef's 250km distance is within the 200 nautical mile of the Philippines EEZ. Yet look what China who is doing to it...

 

 

 

 

 

 

Was Iceland building 3,000 meter long military base runways in the EEZ's of other countries too?

Edited by JasonJ, 07 July 2016 - 0735 AM.

[Panzermann]

 But since then we have the 200 nautical miles zones off the coast. And "coast" may mean a rock barely sticking out of the ocean surface. 
 

Actually, no. "Rocks, shoals and reefs" are specifically excluded under UNCLOS rules from having territorial waters or EEZs.  China's objection to Japan's claim of territorial waters & an EEZ around Okinotorishima is based on this exclusion.

True, but one man's rock is another's island. And then the arguing starts.

[Simon Tan]

Iran. Iran. I know you cannot help yourself but Iran. FWIW....Malaysia started this with our Pulau Layang-Layang.

[Nobu]

FWIW....Malaysia started this with our Pulau Layang-Layang.

 

An often overlooked observation, along with the Nationalist Chinese origin of the 9-dash line and Filipinos sneaking around the SCS intent on asserting their 16th Century ancestral ownership rights.

[Simon Tan]

Fars Island as Special Recreational Zone with a CASINO!

[crazyinsane105]

http://thediplomat.c...lion-arms-deal/

 

I wonder if the Iranians will eventually produce the T-90S, and how many. As for fighter aircraft...I've read it will be Su-30s, not Su-35s. 

[Stuart Galbraith]

Thought this a more suitable place than the Trump or Syria threads.

[JasonJ]

I don't mean to quote Mattis too much, but just to show problems with the Iran deal viewed by others. Video uploaded in Jan 2017.

Edited by JasonJ, 19 May 2018 - 0350 AM.

[RETAC21]

Interesting take, and curiously colored glasses. If Iran is a revolutionary regime seeking to destabilise the region, doesn't that make the US a greater threat because of a well known invasion in 2003 and recent support to terrorists in Syria? Apparently is better to have Iran with nuclear weapons rather than without it, because walking away from the agreement does nothing to address those other concerns.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Thought this was interesting, its rather old but interesting all the same.

http://geimint.blogs...am-network.html

[Josh]

A quick look at googlemaps indicate the Bushehr area still is defended by a HAWK and SA-5 (once launcher?!?). But an older HAWK site is occupied instead by S300.

[Stuart Galbraith]

Quite interesting isnt it? Not sure what EW radar's they are using though.