Jump to content


Photo

And We Are Off To The Races

German Elections 2013

  • Please log in to reply
1499 replies to this topic

#1481 Panzermann

Panzermann

    REFORGER '79

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 16,654 posts

Posted 11 November 2019 - 0900 AM

If the CDU goes into a coalition with the AfD, is the CDU then no longer TINA?
  • 0

#1482 Markus Becker

Markus Becker

    Crew

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 4,000 posts

Posted 11 November 2019 - 1141 AM

Someone has to do it with either the Commies or the AfD, unless the entire AfD doesn't attend the session of the state parliament that elects the new PM.

 

https://www.achgut.c...ke_und_mehrheit

 

But even that would require votes from the Greens and getting red-green after voting black won't be good for the CDU either. However they that is a problem entirely of the own making. :)


  • 0

#1483 Rick

Rick

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 4,245 posts

Posted 12 November 2019 - 0515 AM

Just a (very) casual observation, but it appears the U.S. political system compared to the German has different political ideas being discussed and voted on in the Primaries instead of "maturing" into, for want of a better phrase, splinter political parties.  These political ideas of the wrong(left) and right then become amalgamated by the Democrats and Republicans in a general election.


  • 0

#1484 BansheeOne

BansheeOne

    Bullshit filter overload, venting into civility charger

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 14,499 posts

Posted 16 November 2019 - 0521 AM

Well, for starters there are no real primaries in the German system. Only in recent years has it become increasingly fashionable to involve party bases in leadership selections and other issues, to counter the growing sense that ordinary citizens have too little say in politics. The Greens have been doing this for their top couple in national elections since 2013. The SPD is of course about to have a runoff between the two best-placed teams for their next national leadership, and in the CDU there are current rumblings to ask the base who should be chancellor candidate in (probably) 2021, mostly by supporters of Friedrich Merz who lost out to current party head Annegret-Kramp-Karrenbauer in last year's competition.

 

But in general, assemblies of party delegates are supposed to decide on candidates and direction of policy at each level from the local chapter up. I think the general difference is in the tighter party organization here compared to the US. I'm not even sure there is such a thing as a party membership in the European sense there, where you get a membership card, pay membership fees, etc.; conversely, there is no such thing as registering your party affiliation with election authorities here (privacy concerns alone would make people scream bloody murder). It may be the much greater spread of population which has also led to other holdovers from the US' founding days with no quick means of communication, like the electoral college.

 

Then there is of course the district-based first-past-the-post voting system in the US which promotes a two-party system. And obviously there is a difference in which issues are traditionally controversial. Guns and abortion play little role in German politics, but privacy and the protection of personal information are a much hotter button. And don't touch that third rail of introducing a national autobahn speed limit; the Greens recently introduced a largely symbolic motion to that effect in the Bundestag, and it was shot down in flames 498-126.

 

Meanwhile the AfD's Stephan Brandner was indeed voted out as chair of the Bundestag's legal committee in a historic first. And the grand coalition managed to clear the last obstacle in the way of the agreed half-term review, namely securing a minimum pension for people who would otherwise depend upon basic welfare in retirement due to not having paid enough contributions during their working life.

 

The poster cases for this are women who worked little due to raising kids, though it was criticized that the SPD's suggestion of granting a minimum payment without checking personal wealth would have theoretically benefitted anyone regardless of need. There will now be an income check and a cutoff at 1,250 Euro per month for singles, 1,950 for couples who paid contributions for at least 35 years. The money is to come largely from a planned financial transaction tax.


  • 0

#1485 Rick

Rick

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 4,245 posts

Posted 16 November 2019 - 0605 AM

Well, for starters there are no real primaries in the German system. Only in recent years has it become increasingly fashionable to involve party bases in leadership selections and other issues, to counter the growing sense that ordinary citizens have too little say in politics. The Greens have been doing this for their top couple in national elections since 2013. The SPD is of course about to have a runoff between the two best-placed teams for their next national leadership, and in the CDU there are current rumblings to ask the base who should be chancellor candidate in (probably) 2021, mostly by supporters of Friedrich Merz who lost out to current party head Annegret-Kramp-Karrenbauer in last year's competition.

 

But in general, assemblies of party delegates are supposed to decide on candidates and direction of policy at each level from the local chapter up. I think the general difference is in the tighter party organization here compared to the US. I'm not even sure there is such a thing as a party membership in the European sense there, where you get a membership card, pay membership fees, etc.; conversely, there is no such thing as registering your party affiliation with election authorities here (privacy concerns alone would make people scream bloody murder). It may be the much greater spread of population which has also led to other holdovers from the US' founding days with no quick means of communication, like the electoral college.

 

Then there is of course the district-based first-past-the-post voting system in the US which promotes a two-party system. And obviously there is a difference in which issues are traditionally controversial. Guns and abortion play little role in German politics, but privacy and the protection of personal information are a much hotter button. And don't touch that third rail of introducing a national autobahn speed limit; the Greens recently introduced a largely symbolic motion to that effect in the Bundestag, and it was shot down in flames 498-126.

 

Meanwhile the AfD's Stephan Brandner was indeed voted out as chair of the Bundestag's legal committee in a historic first. And the grand coalition managed to clear the last obstacle in the way of the agreed half-term review, namely securing a minimum pension for people who would otherwise depend upon basic welfare in retirement due to not having paid enough contributions during their working life.

 

The poster cases for this are women who worked little due to raising kids, though it was criticized that the SPD's suggestion of granting a minimum payment without checking personal wealth would have theoretically benefitted anyone regardless of need. There will now be an income check and a cutoff at 1,250 Euro per month for singles, 1,950 for couples who paid contributions for at least 35 years. The money is to come largely from a planned financial transaction tax.

Thank you for the education in German politics. I do appreciate it. Your first sentence explains much. 

 

As a side note, your last paragraph, first sentence; does this affect single mothers only?


Edited by Rick, 16 November 2019 - 0611 AM.

  • 0

#1486 Ssnake

Ssnake

    Virtual Shiva Beast

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 6,861 posts

Posted 16 November 2019 - 0925 AM

No, anyone. But it's that specific demographic that serves as the justification to set up yet another costly program, creating other injustices in the process, which no doubt will be used as leverage to expand this even further in the future. Like, the cut-off is 35 years payments into the system. What about people who paid 34 years? They get nothing. What about people who paid 35 years, but paid contributions that barely lifted them about the subsidy threshold? They get nothing, too. And because the SPD reneged on the regular financial background checks (as with any other welfare program) that they negotiated into the coalition treaty, we now get a reduced investigation for which no mechanisms are in place. As a consequence - honi soit qui mal y pense - there's now the need for 5,000 new bureaucrats to perform these reduced checks for "income only".

 

Once again, the CDU's performance is pathetic.


  • 0

#1487 Rick

Rick

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 4,245 posts

Posted 17 November 2019 - 0457 AM

No, anyone. But it's that specific demographic that serves as the justification to set up yet another costly program, creating other injustices in the process, which no doubt will be used as leverage to expand this even further in the future. Like, the cut-off is 35 years payments into the system. What about people who paid 34 years? They get nothing. What about people who paid 35 years, but paid contributions that barely lifted them about the subsidy threshold? They get nothing, too. And because the SPD reneged on the regular financial background checks (as with any other welfare program) that they negotiated into the coalition treaty, we now get a reduced investigation for which no mechanisms are in place. As a consequence - honi soit qui mal y pense - there's now the need for 5,000 new bureaucrats to perform these reduced checks for "income only".

 

Once again, the CDU's performance is pathetic.

Is there a demand in Germany for more "social welfare" at tax-payer expense?


  • 0

#1488 Markus Becker

Markus Becker

    Crew

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 4,000 posts

Posted 17 November 2019 - 0502 AM

Always!
  • 0

#1489 Rick

Rick

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 4,245 posts

Posted 17 November 2019 - 0507 AM

Always!

:o Human nature at work. But is there any pushback against this as it is realized eventually you run out of other people's money?

 

Absolutely brilliant truths


Edited by Rick, 17 November 2019 - 0610 AM.

  • 0

#1490 Ssnake

Ssnake

    Virtual Shiva Beast

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 6,861 posts

Posted 17 November 2019 - 0705 AM

Sure, always. But the Grand Coalition is a prime example of the political strategy of attempting to buy off votes. Both CDU and SPD are guity; the SPD for the majority of spending increase, the CDU is guilty of moral corruption because they know very well that what they're doing is wrong. The Linke as well as the Greens will always demand even more spending, as will the AfD, except on slightly different things. Which, among the "bigger" parties (5% and more) leaves the FDP as the asshole party which usually argues against the expansion of the welfare state, knowing that 95% of all voters vote "not FDP".


  • 0

#1491 Panzermann

Panzermann

    REFORGER '79

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 16,654 posts

Posted 22 November 2019 - 1033 AM

EJzplXzXUAAiDhx.jpg​


  • 0

#1492 BansheeOne

BansheeOne

    Bullshit filter overload, venting into civility charger

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 14,499 posts

Posted 23 November 2019 - 0437 AM

:D Poor Bernd.

 

'tis convention season. CDU head Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer tried to go on the offensive against critics of her lackluster performance so far in Leipzig. But as the report below notes, the question of who will be the next chancellor candidate (commonly referred to as the "K-Frage" in Germany) will continue to boil.

 

Date 22.11.2019

 

Author Austin Davis (Leipzig)

 

Angela Merkel's conservatives show unity at German CDU conference

 

The chancellor's embattled heir apparent Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer gave a rousing speech that unified a party riddled with dissent. But questions persist about whether she can lead the CDU into the next elections.

 

As Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer took the stage at her party's annual conference in Leipzig on Friday, rumors rumbled about whether the new chairwoman of Germany's conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) had the energy to silence political rivals seeking her ouster.

 

A coup, however, was not to be had. In a rousing 87-minute speech, Kramp-Karrenbauer, commonly known as AKK, pegged herself as a unity figure able to bridge Germany's growing ideological gaps and move the country into the future, despite the mistakes she's made during her short tenure at the head of Chancellor Angela Merkel's party.

 

"If you are of the opinion that the Germany I want is not the one you want ... then we should end it. Here, now and today," she said. "But if you're of the opinion that we should go this path together, then let's roll up our sleeves and get started."

 

The six-minute standing ovation that followed signaled a capitulation of her loudest rivals before they even took the stage.

 

"Our party chairwoman, AKK, gave a fierce speech this morning, and we're all extremely proud," said Friedrich Merz, who narrowly lost the party's leadership race to Kramp-Karrenbauer last year.

 

Many had speculated that Merz would use his time on stage to double-down on recent criticisms of both the chairwoman and Merkel's government. Instead, he insisted that he was not there to split the party.

 

"We're loyal to our chairwoman and to our government, which the CDU has led for the past 14 years," he said.

 

[...]

 

Kramp-Karrenbauer used her speech to draw parallels to the challenges the party faced at the time of Merkel's assent to today and to peg herself as the next Christian Democrat to pick up the baton.

 

While delegates acknowledged the strength of such comparisons and her stature on stage, they were not completely convinced that a leadership race before the next federal elections in 2021 is out of the question.

 

"Many are asking the [chancellor] question, which is where this debate about a leadership primary is coming from," Lucas Schopphoven, state chairman of the Ring of Christian Democrats in Saxony, a student association, told DW.

 

"She's a strong party chairwoman, as the applause showed," he added. "But we have to have an extra discussion about her candidature for chancellor."

 

https://www.dw.com/e...ence/a-51375080

 

The Greens already had an almost scarily harmonic convention by their standards last weekend in Bielefeld, re-electing their leadership duo Robert Habeck and Annalena Baerbock with 90-plus percent respectively while avoiding the question whether one of them should run as an official chancellor candidate, the party being currently second-strongest in polls. They also tried reconciling their core topic of environmentalism, and particularly climate change, with free market economy for their increasingly centrist organization.

 

The result was promptly criticized as erring too much on the side of capitalism from rivals on the left, and of regulation from the right. A flagrant example for the latter, but unconnected to environmentalism, is the demand to raise minimum wages to twelve Euros per hours, effectively telling the independent commission that was established to set those when they were introduced to do this. It's notable that guest speakers were the head of asset management holding Union Investment on one hand, and of the German Union's League on the other. The unions used to be closely intertwined with the SPD of course, but with the decline of the Social Democrats, they're obviously trying to broaden their range of political partners.

 

The SPD itself will have its convention in two weeks in Berlin. Main item will be electing a new leadership, also a duo for the first time, following the current runoff base vote of Olaf Scholz and Klara Geywitz vs. Norbert Walter-Borjans and Saskia Esken. Walter-Borjans recently questioned whether the party should even nominate a chancellor candidate anymore in its current marginalized state, but quickly backpedalled after being criticized by Scholz.

 

The convention has also long been expected to decide on the continuation of the unloved grand coalition. Prominent coalition critic Kevin Kühnert, just re-elected head of the Young Socialists at the SPD youth wing's own convention in Schwerin with a solid 89 percent on Friday, announced at that event that he will seek a position on the mother party's national board in Berlin, causing a bit of a stir in the party establishment. Generally however, people tend to expect the coalition will actually last until 2021, though that's far from set in stone.


  • 0

#1493 Panzermann

Panzermann

    REFORGER '79

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 16,654 posts

Posted 23 November 2019 - 0900 AM

with a solid 89 percent 

​

 

For SPd that is a weak result. Sheesh. The young socialist should learn from the pros the likes of Stalin. Pure amateurs nowadays.


  • 0

#1494 BansheeOne

BansheeOne

    Bullshit filter overload, venting into civility charger

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 14,499 posts

Posted 01 December 2019 - 1016 AM

The SPD itself will have its convention in two weeks in Berlin. Main item will be electing a new leadership, also a duo for the first time, following the current runoff base vote of Olaf Scholz and Klara Geywitz vs. Norbert Walter-Borjans and Saskia Esken. Walter-Borjans recently questioned whether the party should even nominate a chancellor candidate anymore in its current marginalized state, but quickly backpedalled after being criticized by Scholz.
 
The convention has also long been expected to decide on the continuation of the unloved grand coalition. Prominent coalition critic Kevin Kühnert, just re-elected head of the Young Socialists at the SPD youth wing's own convention in Schwerin with a solid 89 percent on Friday, announced at that event that he will seek a position on the mother party's national board in Berlin, causing a bit of a stir in the party establishment. Generally however, people tend to expect the coalition will actually last until 2021, though that's far from set in stone.


Well, Walter-Borjans/Esken won over Scholz/Geywitz 53-45 on a turnout of 54 percent. I'm surprised that everybody acts surprised; this is the party base giving another finger to the establishment that ran the unpopular policies of the last 15 years. Including the grand coalitions, though the new duo didn't run on quitting the government outright. Rather, they want to renegotiate the coalition agreement and introduce (even) more and new Social Democratic demands, like more money for climate protection and infrastructure, and a minimum wage of twelve Euro per hour (see post on Green convention above for the issue).

In effect that may still come out to the coalition failing, as I have a hard time seeing CDU/CSU getting in on that. CDU head Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer already indicated as much, and the mood in the party has long been that the SPD has been given way too much in this and the previous government for their relative weight. I could see Angela Merkel give in just to keep the government intact, but at this point the CDU, too, needs to think about the next election, and the need to sharpen its own profile.

Walter-Borjans/Esken may also face opposition to their course from their own party establishment, namely the cabinet members and MPs, who naturally tend to be for continuing the coalition to the regular end of the term. Esken is actually a member of the Bundestag herself, but said to be not well-connected even among her party colleagues, let alone with CDU/CSU officials she would have to deal with as party co-head. Walter-Borjans is also pretty much a has-been as former NRW state minister of finances. But of course their outsider status was the whole point for them being elected.

Meanwhile the AfD also held their national convention this weekend. Co-head Alexander "the Third Reich was a mere birdshit" Gauland, who took the post only to quench some infighting between the party's moderate and radical wings last time, didn't run again. His favored successor Tino Chrupalla from Saxony, said to be on good terms with both wings, was elected in a runoff against fellow MP Gottfried Curio with 55 percent.

Gauland is the last of the AfD's original founding generation to leave the party's leadership. In his convention speech, he called for staying the current political course rather than sucking up to CDU/CSU in hope of government participation; rather, the latter would eventually have no choice but to take the AfD on board.

The other co-head Jörg Meuthen was re-elected with 69 percent against two contenders, including Wolfgang Gedeon who once caused Meuthen trouble already when the party's Baden-Württemberg state assembly group split under his chairmanship because he couldn't find a majority to eject Gedeon over his anti-Semitism. Gedeon got less than four percent of the vote though. Just in time for the convention, there had also been reports about another party donations affair involving Meuthen, but at this point nobody in- or outside the AfD seems to care much anymore.
  • 0

#1495 Panzermann

Panzermann

    REFORGER '79

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 16,654 posts

Posted 02 December 2019 - 1910 PM

My prediction is that they are going to give up in a year. Unnerved like Platzeck was. The Scholzens, the Heils, the Nahleses and the other Seeheimers are still in their positions and control the Seeheimer Partei Deutschlands.


Edited by Panzermann, 02 December 2019 - 1914 PM.

  • 0

#1496 Markus Becker

Markus Becker

    Crew

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 4,000 posts

Posted 03 December 2019 - 0831 AM

The Saxon CDU(32%), SPD(7.7%) and Greens(8.6%) have completed the coaltion agreement. A guy from the FDP summed it up as: "Saxony will have a Red-Green government with a CDU Ministerpräsident."
  • 0

#1497 Panzermann

Panzermann

    REFORGER '79

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 16,654 posts

Posted 05 December 2019 - 2227 PM

Well I think that depends how much Kretschmer lets himself get scared by SPD and Greens of the AfD threat.

 

 

 

 

Outside view on the prospect new SPD party leadership team:

 

https://www.newstate...t-germany-needs

 

(...)The claim that Esken and NoWaBo (“NoWaBo-fakis” to his detractors) are wildly left-wing deserves to be assessed in the context of a German economic debate that has skewed far to the right of economic orthodoxy in recent years. A country with negative interest rates where a moderate party (the CDU) jokes about its “fetish” for balanced books with posters showing a leather police hat on a black zero is not a country enjoying a healthy economic debate. As the economist Christian Odendahl puts it, Esken and NoWaBo are by international comparison about as hard-left as the IMF, in that they want more of Germany’s vast surplus to be spent on wide-eyed priorities like school, digital and rail improvements. Their proposed minimum wage increase to €12 an hour, below the level currently being proposed in Britain by renowned hardline socialist Boris Johnson, would inject some much-needed demand into the slowing eurozone economy. Meanwhile, their insistence that the grand coalition improve its dismally unambitious climate package puts them somewhere close to such extreme lefties as French president Emmanuel Macron and Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte. (...)

​

 

Good read.


Edited by Panzermann, 05 December 2019 - 2308 PM.

  • 0

#1498 BansheeOne

BansheeOne

    Bullshit filter overload, venting into civility charger

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 14,499 posts

Posted 06 December 2019 - 0329 AM

Well, right now the designated duo of the SPD is backpedalling on leaving the coalition so furiously that their pants are about to catch on fire, and the party's left wing is pulling out the hoses. The lead motion of the convention this weekend is reportedly calling only for "talks" with CDU/CSU on more investions into climate protection and infrastructure, and raising minimum wages to twelve Euro. Apparently the coalition question as such will not even be a debating point of its own, though I'm sure it will permeate discussion.

The problem with minimum wage isn't some arbitrary number, but the intention to tell the independent body which was specifically established to set it what to do. Interferring with the autonomy of employers and unions to negotiate pay was exactly what CDU/CSU wanted to avoid when they agreed to the initial 8.50 under the condition that it would subsequently recommend bi-anually by that committee, the latest being 9.35 from next year. Which isn't what SPD, Greens and Left think it should be, so they're back to the government telling the body what its independent decision is going to be.
  • 0

#1499 BansheeOne

BansheeOne

    Bullshit filter overload, venting into civility charger

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 14,499 posts

Posted 07 December 2019 - 0546 AM

Walter-Borjans and Esken were formally elected by the SPD convention yesterday. Which also reduced the number of national vice chairs to merely five rather than the planned-for three from six to avoid a contested vote for Young Socialists head Kevin Kühnert against labor minister Hubertus Heil as the establishment candidate for one of the slots.

 

Kühnert eventually got a little more votes than Heil uncontested, making him the first Juso head to be part of the national SPD board, but both got scarcely more than 70 percent. In a palpable desire for harmony after the acrimonious leadership contest, the convention also voted overwhelmingly for the soft lead motion which will eventually drop the question on the future of the grand coalition after "talks" with CDU/CSU about new initiatives back into the lap of the national board.

 

The situation remains that if the coalition failed, early elections would be likely with current poll numbers of CDU/CSU 25-28 (2017: 32.9) percent, Greens 20-23 (8.9), AfD 14-15 (12.6), SPD 11-15 (20.5), Left 8-10 (9.2) and FDP 7-9 (10.7) percent. The only alternate majority would be Jamaica, but the Greens have no interest to step in when they could possibly more than double their seats in new elections. Conversely, CDU/CSU and SPD have no interest in reducing their numbers in same. The Christian Democrats specifically would try to hold on as long as possible in hopes of recovering from their continuing low, possibly at the expense of the Greens' high.

 

Some of theirs like Friedrich Merz have in fact advocated for a minority government if the SPD should leave; the 2020 budget is already authorized, so they could perceivably govern to well near the end of next year before they needed a really dependable majority again. It would however jeopardize things like annual extensions of mandates for Bundeswehr deployments, and Angela Merkel is not known as a fan of unsecure governments. Anyway, after the SPD convention chances for the coalition continuing to 2021 have risen again.


  • 0

#1500 Markus Becker

Markus Becker

    Crew

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 4,000 posts

Posted 07 December 2019 - 1511 PM

A new poll is out and it rates the perceived competence.

The CDU leads as 19% consider them competent, followed by the Greens with 12, the SPD with 3, FDP, Commies and the AFD manage 9 combined and 57% say no political party is competent.

https://www.tichysei...bei-11-prozent/
  • 0