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Analysis Of Recent Attack On Saudi Arabian Oil Facility


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#1 Kenneth P. Katz

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Posted 17 September 2019 - 1007 AM

https://www.csis.org...es-saudi-arabia


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#2 Chris Werb

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Posted 17 September 2019 - 1439 PM

He refers to TERCOM as Terminal Command. IIRC it actually stands for TERrain COntour Matching and is not what he's referring to at all.


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#3 rmgill

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Posted 17 September 2019 - 1449 PM

I saw that, I read it more of an example of what that is than what it means as a term. TERCOM is a terminal guidance that's based on imagery mapping/comparison. There's just not outside command to it.


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#4 Josh

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Posted 17 September 2019 - 1502 PM

I wouldn't consider TERCOM a terminal guidance mode; it's a mid course update to the INS. But I think we get the gist of what he was talking about.


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#5 Colin

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Posted 17 September 2019 - 1546 PM

KSA is claiming the weapons used are  Iranian Ya Ali cruise missiles which have a range of roughly 700km, which rules out Yemen and leaves Qatar, part of Iraq and most of coastal Iran as the source.


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#6 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 18 September 2019 - 0213 AM

They were talking about the launch site identified as being Iran last night, but with the cruise missiles routed through Iraqi airspace to attack the facility, and avoid any maritime traffic  and warships I guess. All the Saudi AD weapon's were pointed south to guard against Yemen, so they never picked them up. Oops.


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#7 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 18 September 2019 - 0218 AM

There are some pictures of the remains of one of the weapon shown here. You will note the similarity with the weapon the Houthi's apparently unveiled some time ago.

https://www.thesun.c...one-photo-iran/

 

I get the impression nobody really knows how this was done. Which is frankly just a bit worrying.


Edited by Stuart Galbraith, 18 September 2019 - 0222 AM.

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#8 Roman Alymov

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Posted 18 September 2019 - 0244 AM

There are some pictures of the remains of one of the weapon shown here. You will note the similarity with the weapon the Houthi's apparently unveiled some time ago.

https://www.thesun.c...one-photo-iran/

 

I get the impression nobody really knows how this was done. Which is frankly just a bit worrying.

Except Designer department girls :) 

02.jpg

DO-MAP-DRONES-V2.jpg


Edited by Roman Alymov, 18 September 2019 - 0245 AM.

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#9 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 18 September 2019 - 0258 AM

Yeah, that wasnt the smartest graphic they could use. Well, it supports what I say about the British media doesnt it? :)


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#10 Daan

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Posted 18 September 2019 - 0600 AM

A better analysis of the photograph in the Sun article:

https://www.armscont...eet-the-quds-1/


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#11 Roman Alymov

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Posted 18 September 2019 - 0728 AM

Yeah, that wasnt the smartest graphic they could use. Well, it supports what I say about the British media doesnt it? :)

No, only indicating continuous failures of this type in Russia are not some type of local problem - but part of global trend of loosing professionalism.


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#12 rmgill

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Posted 18 September 2019 - 0935 AM

Yeah, that wasnt the smartest graphic they could use. Well, it supports what I say about the British media doesnt it? :)


That it's run by conservatives and that it's non partisan?
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#13 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 18 September 2019 - 1003 AM

 

Yeah, that wasnt the smartest graphic they could use. Well, it supports what I say about the British media doesnt it? :)


That it's run by conservatives and that it's non partisan?

 

 

No, I was pointing out to Roman on another thread they talk a lot of crap, whether leftist or rightist is kinda beside the point.


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#14 Daan

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Posted 18 September 2019 - 1051 AM

The KSA held a press conference displaying the remnants of the suicide UAVs and cruise missiles that had been recovered from the attacked sites:

 

gYrgmSP.jpg

 

dAqvfti.jpg

 

syxu9N5.jpg


Edited by Daan, 18 September 2019 - 1057 AM.

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#15 Daan

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Posted 18 September 2019 - 1056 AM

And bingo, the drones were indeed of Iranian provenance and this particular model was apparently unveiled during the May 2014 IRGC Aerospace Force exhibition:

JGIG1Pt.jpg

https://twitter.com/...344788050677760


Edited by Daan, 18 September 2019 - 1059 AM.

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#16 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 18 September 2019 - 1102 AM

Looks like 2 different ones used, which is interesting.


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#17 Nobu

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Posted 18 September 2019 - 1126 AM

Yeah, that wasnt the smartest graphic they could use. Well, it supports what I say about the British media doesnt it? :)

 

No, it was not, but in defense of it, there appears to be enough of it to ensure a degree of self-policing by it.

 

The designer was probably given 15 minutes and a barely coherent caption written by a photographer to produce it.


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#18 Daan

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Posted 18 September 2019 - 1147 AM

Looks like 2 different ones used, which is interesting.

Yeah, cruise missiles and suicide UAVs, which had different targets. The cruise missile seems to be the "Houthi" Quds-1.

 

From the press conference:

HWu24Ix.jpg


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#19 RETAC21

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Posted 18 September 2019 - 1300 PM

The UAVs are kind of small to make the trip


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#20 Chris Werb

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Posted 18 September 2019 - 1432 PM

The UAVs are kind of small to make the trip

 

Looking at the pic, the UAVs aren't dramatically smaller than the Israeli HAROP which is claimed to have a range of 2000km (there and back) or 1000km (one way).


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