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And We Are Off To The Races

German Elections 2013

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#1421 TonyE

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Posted 30 July 2019 - 2011 PM

Ah, that part. No legal wrangling to delay an election but have another one if the court finds fault with the first.

 

Music to my ears! :D


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#1422 BansheeOne

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Posted 07 August 2019 - 0503 AM

Election.de's district projection for the Thuringia state elections currently predicts the ruling Left Party holding on to most of its direct-vote seats, with the rest split about evenly between CDU and AfD; the SPD is reduced to its traditional stronghold of Gotha. Left and AfD are also runners-up in each other's likely districts, which is unsurprising given the similarity of their East German electorate. In fact that Thuringia is bucking the trend of the Left losing heavily to the AfD in the Eastern states is probably largely due to the former's incumbency bonus here. However, polls still show them competing for first place in the secondary vote with CDU and AfD in the 20-26 percent bracket. Greens are shown at 10-11, SPD 8-10, FDP 5.

th19e_prognose_190803.png

Meanwhile, the controversy about the AfD state list doesn't seem to have had an impact on Saxony polls so far. At 25-26 percent, the party remains a strong contender for first place to the CDU at 26-28. Left 15-16, Greens 12, SPD 8-9, FDP 5. In both states, forming a government without the CDU going with either AfD or Left will be a challenge.
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#1423 Markus Becker

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Posted 07 August 2019 - 0959 AM

Speaking of Saxony and polls:

One from a day or two ago saw the CDU up four(!) points, though the maximum margin of error was +/- 3.1%. The AfDs numbers didn't change.
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#1424 BansheeOne

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Posted 16 August 2019 - 1143 AM

The Saxony State Court has now confirmed its preliminary ruling that the AfD can run with the first 30 candidates on the list. They'll probably still complain to the election review committee after the elections, but any result there is unlikely to have a practical effect.

Meanwhile over in Brandenburg, the AfD has edged into the lead position with 21 percent in two polls, though the field remains close with CDU, SPD and Greens all between 16 and 18, and the Left another two or so points behind. The FDP is trailing barely above the five-percent threshold. Both a Kenya coalition and Red-Red-Green look possible, though the latter is more likely.

Also, vice chancellor Olaf Scholz has reneged on his initial declining to become the next SPD (co-)head, and is now looking for a female running mate since the suggestion to elect a Green/Left/AfD-style leadership duo has become a de-facto requirement for the contest (there was a recent report that some female MPs are getting upset by a wave of phone calls inviting them to be "the woman at his side" for various hopefulls, in which they hardly get a word in).

It seems that after the party brass already became worried that no big names had made bids by that point, the heavyweights now consider it safe to come forward without getting burnt immediately. Most recently, Lower Saxony State interior minister Boris Pistorius teamed up with Saxony state integration minister Petra Köpping as the fourth and so far most substantial couple; it has been pointed out that Pistorius would be the kind of law-and-order figure satisfying the corresponding desire for public security among traditional SPD voters which the party has lacked at the national level since former federal interior minister Otto Schily, while Köpping would be first to represent East Germany at its top since the short reign of former Brandenburg state minister president Matthias Platzeck.

OTOH, Scholz is known as the "Scholzomat" for his uncharismatic style, and one of the few SPD leaders who remain on the record as supporters of the current grand coalition; not something generating enthusiasm at the party base right now. Further candidates can still declare until 1 September. The base vote starts on 14 October, with results to be announced on the 26th, leaving time for a runoff if no team gets an outright majority. The vote will be technically advisory, but the SPD convention from 6-8 December is expected to follow it.

Whether there will even be a grand coalition at this point is dubious, as the base choice might inform the decision of whether the party will use the half-term review set forth in the coalition agreement to quit the unloved government. It might then well be that the convention kicks off the SPD campaign for snap elections, as the engorged Greens are unlikely to simply join a "Jamaica" coalition with the liberal FDP to keep Merkel in power; they could gain considerable seats and be a much stronger partner - possibly even leading the government - after an election.

Edited by BansheeOne, 16 August 2019 - 1145 AM.

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#1425 Markus Becker

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Posted 19 August 2019 - 1458 PM

The long saga of the AfD's denied vice president of the Bundestag might get a spin off that's even better.

In the Brandenburg state elections the AfD is very likely to come first and a recent change of their constitution gives the largest party the sole right to nominate the president of the state assembly. Now as the old parties in the Bundestag remind us having a right and getting it are two things but without a president the assembly can't function. Meaning they have to elect an AfD politician.

http://zeitung.svz.d...Abs6an4BVqvD_Rk

This could get even funnier? WI the Brandenburg AfD doesn't nominate a candidate citing the situation in the Bundestag? Actually, I have to mail that to my AfD MdL. :)
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#1426 Panzermann

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Posted 19 August 2019 - 1507 PM

This could get even funnier? WI the Brandenburg AfD doesn't nominate a candidate citing the situation in the Bundestag? Actually, I have to mail that to my AfD MdL. :)

 

Who says some random AfD backbencher cannot be nominated by the other parties in the parliament of brandenburg?


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#1427 Markus Becker

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Posted 19 August 2019 - 1636 PM

If the article is correct, the state's constitution. And in any case if you are elected, you have to accept/approve of the election.
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#1428 Panzermann

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Posted 19 August 2019 - 1852 PM

If the article is correct, the state's constitution. And in any case if you are elected, you have to accept/approve of the election.

 

Of course. And the other parties would not be caught dead promoting anyone from the AfD. They are the dirty children the other children are not to play with. It was just a far out whatif thoughtexperiment.


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#1429 BansheeOne

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Posted 24 August 2019 - 0452 AM

The rise of the Greens to about parity with CDU/CSU had intermittently reduced the problem of supernumerary seats possibly increasing the size of the next Bundestag even further as the number of projected districts won directly by them rose to meet their secondary vote poll numbers. However, with them sliding back down again as the bandwaggoning effect after their good results in the European elections wears off, we're back up to a potential 757 vs. regular 596 seats.

 

btw21e_prognose_190821.png


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#1430 BansheeOne

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Posted 25 August 2019 - 0518 AM

The Saxony State Court has now confirmed its preliminary ruling that the AfD can run with the first 30 candidates on the list. They'll probably still complain to the election review committee after the elections, but any result there is unlikely to have a practical effect.

 

Or maybe it will; election.de now projects that due to a recent rise in the CDU's poll numbers and a cap on supernumerary seats in the Saxony state assembly at a maximum of 20, the AfD might come up short five candidates to fill their seats. If the FDP doesn't make the five-percent threshold to enter parliament, the delta might even rise to seven.

 

sn19e_prognose_190824.png

 

sn19_prognose_sitze_190824.png


Edited by BansheeOne, 25 August 2019 - 0519 AM.

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#1431 Markus Becker

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Posted 25 August 2019 - 0537 AM

I put my money on option two, a green government.
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#1432 Panzermann

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Posted 25 August 2019 - 0901 AM

I put my money on option two, a green mostest democraticest government evah.

 

 

fify ;)

 

You know, the true democrats defending democracy. DEMOCRACYYYYYYYYY. Shut up peasant.


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#1433 Markus Becker

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Posted 25 August 2019 - 1229 PM

More like broke it. Any government with the Greens in it is a green government. And being not a member of the urban better off clasd, I have no use for this lot.
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#1434 Markus Becker

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Posted 01 September 2019 - 1506 PM

Oh, the Schadenfreude I'm currently feeling.

Two out of three state elections and CDU down, SPD down, Commies down, AfD way up and Greens not remotely as much up as the media wanted you to think.

For a very detailed analysis of the state elections in Saxony and Brandenburg I how had hand you over to our Berlin based analyst Banshee One. ;)
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#1435 Panzermann

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Posted 01 September 2019 - 1540 PM

some preliminary results:

 

Saxonia:

 

CDU 32,8% (-6,6%)

AfD 28,3 (+18,6%)

Links 10% (-8,9%)

B90/Grüne 7,7% (+2%)

SPD 7,6% (-4,8%)

FDP 4,5% (+0,7%)

Freie Wähler 3,4% (+1,8%)

other 5,8%

 

 

Brandenburg:

 

SPD 26,2 (-5,7%)

AfD 23,5% (+11,3%)

CDU 15,6% (-7,4%)

B90/G 10,8 (+4,6%)

Linksp 10,7%(-7,9%)

BVB/FW 5,0% (+2,3%)

FDP 4,1% (2,6%)

Tierschutz 2,6% (+2,6%)

other 1,5% (-2,5%)

 

 

participation in both was about 60% of voters.


Edited by Panzermann, 01 September 2019 - 1557 PM.

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#1436 Martin M

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Posted 01 September 2019 - 1620 PM

More like broke it. Any government with the Greens in it is a green government. And being not a member of the urban better off clasd, I have no use for this lot.

 

if only the Bundesmichel would ever have understood this :

 

( the Font cannot be large enough, and should be screaming incessantly )

 

 

 

 " Any government with the Greens in it is a Green government. "


Edited by Martin M, 01 September 2019 - 1620 PM.

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#1437 BansheeOne

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Posted 02 September 2019 - 0810 AM

First of all, turnout increased considerable both in Brandenburg and Saxony, in line with what we have seen in German elections over the last five years as people have found renewed value in democratic participation. On one hand, this benefitted the respective leading parties in the incumbent state governments (CDU in Saxony, and particularly the SPD in Brandenburg), which received eleventh-hour boosts especially from previous non-voters, saving their lead positions. In fact they gained in total votes - though they lost heavily in relative share. Their respective coalition partners (SPD in Saxony, Left Party in Brandenburg) were hit even harder, and the current coalition governments have lost their majorities.

The AfD ended up second in both states, also doing better than expected - particularly in Saxony where they may have profitted from the controversy about their state list. As it is now, they can fill all but one of their 39 seats there with eight directly-elected district candidates who were not on the state list capped at 30. Obviously that one seat will still be the subject of an official complaint and a final decision by the Saxony State Court after the injunction which granted them 30 candidates. However, unless this results in a complete election re-run, it won't have a major impact on forming the next government. If they had only been able to fill 30 seats, it might have made a straight CDU-Green coalition possible, so they can credit themselves with preventing that.

The AfD also gained most from previous non-voters, to a lesser degree from previous CDU and a yet lesser degree previous Left Party voters. The Left is being touted as the real losers of the elections; 15 years ago they were where the AfD is now, but scored barely more than ten percent in both states yesterday. They claimed this was partly the result of tactical anti-AfD voting by their supporters, since the CDU wouldn't form a coalition with them and a vote for the Left would therefore work against a majority excluding the AfD. There may even be some truth to it, since some of their voters went to CDU, SPD and Greens; but far more went to the AfD itself.

The thing is that the AfD has successfully appropriated the narrative of East Germans as second-class citizens, and to a large degree taken the Eastern identity and protest vote away from the Left, which has become too tame and established through its participation in multiple governments up to state level over the last decades in the eyes of many. The Left may cling to power in Brandenburg, but only by inclusion of the Greens into a Red-Red-Green government. Otherwise a "Kenya" coalition of CDU-SPD-Greens like in Saxony-Anhalt would be the only likely alternative, and seems the only option in Saxony as the CDU has also ruled out going with the AfD.

The Greens are thus looking at government participation in both states; but while they gained in what has long been difficult terrain in East Germany for them, their results didn't quite meet projections. That's probably their recent inflated poll numbers after the European elections meeting reality on the ground, and I expect this to reflect in upcoming national polls. For CDU and SPD, defending their lead position in the respective states gives their embattled national leaderships at least some respite - Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer who has acted rather unlucky as CDU chair so far on one hand, and the Social Democrats in their interregnum on the other.

ETA the usual voter migration charts.

Saxony:

image-1464770-860_galleryfree-svfl-14647

Edited by BansheeOne, 02 September 2019 - 0851 AM.

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#1438 Markus Becker

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Posted 02 September 2019 - 1038 AM

The Greens -that 8% party- demand substantial changes from the Saxon CDU. A Party that happens to still be four times larger and disliking the Greens quite a bit.

The Greens also peddle the narrative that the CDU remained the largest party because if them. Oh so many wanted to vote for the Greens but didn't to prevent the AfD from winning first place.

That bunch is delusional. Coalition talks will be fun and the unresolved illegal actions of the election comission could still lead to new elections.
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#1439 Panzermann

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Posted 02 September 2019 - 1305 PM

Otherwise a "Kenya" coalition

​

 

Afghanistan coalition or Libya coalition would be much more fitting for the infighting in a CDU-Greens-SPD coalition.

 

 

 

The Greens -that 8% party- demand substantial changes from the Saxon CDU. A Party that happens to still be four times larger and disliking the Greens quite a bit.

The Greens also peddle the narrative that the CDU remained the largest party because if them. Oh so many wanted to vote for the Greens but didn't to prevent the AfD from winning first place.

That bunch is delusional. Coalition talks will be fun and the unresolved illegal actions of the election comission could still lead to new elections.

 

 

The Greens are on the power drug. They sniff government seats. The SPD was much more hilarious. Talking as if it was some big victory and not the bill for their politics of the last two decades and having nothing to offer the currently.


Edited by Panzermann, 02 September 2019 - 1925 PM.

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#1440 Panzermann

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Posted 02 September 2019 - 1925 PM

I just heard that the AfD got nine more seats than they have candidates on their shortened list. Ooops. If the whole election has to be canceled for this formality this is going to give a major boost to the AfD in the possibly rerun election.

 

Meanwhile the AfD has filed a lot of legal complaints including criminal charges against various persons and institutions of the Freestate Saxonia related to the cutting of the list. Looks like saxonian law maybe does not say the candidate list has to be assembled in one convention. This is going to be interesting and lots of work for lawyers.

 

 

interesting take on the decision taken by the saxonian court on the Verfassungsblog​​ https://verfassungsblog.de/demokratische-tragoedie-in-sachsen/ 

 

it was already very shaky then. Now with 9 seats unfilled because of the shortened list the situation looks worse.


Edited by Panzermann, 02 September 2019 - 1941 PM.

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