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Protests In Hong Kong


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#341 JasonJ

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Posted 24 August 2019 - 2139 PM

During the 1980s, China was having its first "opening up" ever since the long run of the heavy handed personality cult of Mao. I think there was some optimism in many countries that China was going to transform itself. The economy opened up some in following the examples of Hong Kong and Singapore. Leaders at that time probably aware of the trends towards democracy in South Korea and Taiwan as well. South Korea achieved it in 1988. Taiwan achieved it in 1996. Sentiment in Japan towards China was also actually quite good and China wasn't playing the anti-Japan 'causes history propaganda so heavily. Among these factors, the US surely would have been keen to see China drift further away from the SU and draw closer to what is to be a "Western Country". But comes along 1989 and the start of those demonstration in China in April and going on for 2 months before the crackdown on June 4th. Within the CCP at that time, there was the PRC president Zhao Ziyang at the time who favored political reform. He wasn't alone, there were other high ranking PRC CCP politicians that wanted political reform such as Wan Li. However in 1989, there was also a staunch side in the CCP whom did not want political reform and wanted the demonstrations crushed. It is interesting to know that before the PLA was ordered to crush the demonstrations on June 4th, there was an earlier order to do so, sometime in May IIRC, but the PLA did not comply on the grounds of being the Army for the people and so crushing the people would violate that thinking. The staunch side included  people such as Li Peng and Yao Yilin. They worked against Zhao Ziyang. Ultimately, Deng Xiaoping would back the existence of the CCP thus being against political reform, felt changes were happening too quickly, and gave the final OK to crush the 1989 demonstrations.

 

So I think during that phase of opening up throughout the 1980s was a timing that fared quite well with the lease on HK and so in the mid 1980s, the UK and others probably could have felt that at that time, they were not necessarily dooming HK to ChiCom hell.

 

After the 1989 crackdown at Tiananmen Square (and other locations apparently) and into the early and mid 1990s was probably the moment for reconsidering into backing out of the returning of HK to the PRC. And to not hastily back the PRC in joining the WTO.

 

 

But well, here we are now. China's reputation has surely been shot up and trade dependency between the US and China looks to be going to reduced levels. And defense relations between Japan and other Asia-Pacific nations has developed, something important for whenever the US goes through an isolationists phase or exhausted and drained from high tempo training and maintenance wear down.

 

As for what to do with HK more specifically, maybe sometime later.


Edited by JasonJ, 24 August 2019 - 2141 PM.

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#342 Leo Niehorster

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Posted 25 August 2019 - 0146 AM

 

 

:rolleyes:

 

I thought it was just me.

 

 

One only has to compare this attitude with the British stance on Gibraltar. I suppose they will evolve the "not east of Suez" policy, probably the major reason to give HK to the PRC, to a "not south of Jersey" one in order to realize an isolated Gibraltar is an intolerable drain on HM Treasury, turn a blind eye on those Gib freeloaders, and end the history of the last Colony in Continental Europe.

 

Pot — Kettel.

Ceuta and Melilla, of which Morocco probably has a similar view. Just as Gibraltar is British by right of conquest, quite a while ago.

Spain acquired Gibraltar in 149... (?) and lost it in 1713. A bit over 200 years. So, it's been British for a bit over 300 years. And the locals seem to prefer British rule.

 

Would mentioning the Spanish Basque in this context be rude ...? :ph34r:

 

There are many bits and pieces of land which were conquered/occupied/annexed by some nation at some time in the past which now are part of that nation.  If you start rolling these up, where do you start (and end)?

 

Sorry, spelling


Edited by Leo Niehorster, 25 August 2019 - 0148 AM.

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#343 Chris Werb

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Posted 25 August 2019 - 0154 AM


Does anyone here think having a US style armed populace in Hong Kong start to light up the security forces there would actually end well?  There's a place for self-serving fantasy, but I don't think playing Red Dawn in a city of 7 million people has a lot to commend it.

I'm reminded of the Venezuela coup attempt.  Media talking heads were exclaiming that the coup had no chance because the populace had essentially been disarmed by the Venezuelan government.  Of course as soon as they figured out what they were saying they quickly dropped that line of thinking.
 
But yeah, better Red than Dead.  Better to submit and be led into captivity than fight for freedom.  That's historically worked well for population groups, hasn't it?
Actually, almost always, it has. Most communist countries moved away from communism with very little if any bloodshed. Some. Like China, retain it as little more than a token concept. None, that I can think of, shot themselves out of communism.
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#344 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 25 August 2019 - 0204 AM

During the 1980s, China was having its first "opening up" ever since the long run of the heavy handed personality cult of Mao. I think there was some optimism in many countries that China was going to transform itself. The economy opened up some in following the examples of Hong Kong and Singapore. Leaders at that time probably aware of the trends towards democracy in South Korea and Taiwan as well. South Korea achieved it in 1988. Taiwan achieved it in 1996. Sentiment in Japan towards China was also actually quite good and China wasn't playing the anti-Japan 'causes history propaganda so heavily. Among these factors, the US surely would have been keen to see China drift further away from the SU and draw closer to what is to be a "Western Country". But comes along 1989 and the start of those demonstration in China in April and going on for 2 months before the crackdown on June 4th. Within the CCP at that time, there was the PRC president Zhao Ziyang at the time who favored political reform. He wasn't alone, there were other high ranking PRC CCP politicians that wanted political reform such as Wan Li. However in 1989, there was also a staunch side in the CCP whom did not want political reform and wanted the demonstrations crushed. It is interesting to know that before the PLA was ordered to crush the demonstrations on June 4th, there was an earlier order to do so, sometime in May IIRC, but the PLA did not comply on the grounds of being the Army for the people and so crushing the people would violate that thinking. The staunch side included  people such as Li Peng and Yao Yilin. They worked against Zhao Ziyang. Ultimately, Deng Xiaoping would back the existence of the CCP thus being against political reform, felt changes were happening too quickly, and gave the final OK to crush the 1989 demonstrations.

 

So I think during that phase of opening up throughout the 1980s was a timing that fared quite well with the lease on HK and so in the mid 1980s, the UK and others probably could have felt that at that time, they were not necessarily dooming HK to ChiCom hell.

 

After the 1989 crackdown at Tiananmen Square (and other locations apparently) and into the early and mid 1990s was probably the moment for reconsidering into backing out of the returning of HK to the PRC. And to not hastily back the PRC in joining the WTO.

 

 

But well, here we are now. China's reputation has surely been shot up and trade dependency between the US and China looks to be going to reduced levels. And defense relations between Japan and other Asia-Pacific nations has developed, something important for whenever the US goes through an isolationists phase or exhausted and drained from high tempo training and maintenance wear down.

 

As for what to do with HK more specifically, maybe sometime later.

 

There was a great belief among Western Political leaders that economic liberalism would lead to political liberalism. Which was always complete nonsense. You only have to look at the Kaisers Germany to realise you can be an economic powerhouse, and still be a stranger to any Democratic values.

 

We basically reinforced the Communist regime by trading with it. Which was 180 degrees from what we did with the Soviet Communists. I still dont get it.


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#345 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 25 August 2019 - 0242 AM

 

 

Does anyone here think having a US style armed populace in Hong Kong start to light up the security forces there would actually end well?  There's a place for self-serving fantasy, but I don't think playing Red Dawn in a city of 7 million people has a lot to commend it.

I'm reminded of the Venezuela coup attempt.  Media talking heads were exclaiming that the coup had no chance because the populace had essentially been disarmed by the Venezuelan government.  Of course as soon as they figured out what they were saying they quickly dropped that line of thinking.
 
But yeah, better Red than Dead.  Better to submit and be led into captivity than fight for freedom.  That's historically worked well for population groups, hasn't it?
Actually, almost always, it has. Most communist countries moved away from communism with very little if any bloodshed. Some. Like China, retain it as little more than a token concept. None, that I can think of, shot themselves out of communism.

 

 

What about Yugoslavia Chris? Granted the Communists didn't kill anyone, but the transition from Communism to Democracy was anything but bloodless because unleashed the old spectre of nationalism, which  ripped the country apart.

 

You can also look at the wars in Nagorno Karabakh, Chechnya, Georgia and Ukraine was being a result of the transition from Communism. That some of them took place 15-25 years down the line from the fall of the USSR doesn't mean they were any less created by it.

 

Then there is Pol Pot and the Khymer Rouge, the war that resulted when Vietnam to its credit invaded, and the war that resulted in Vietnam when China invaded Vietnam. I shudder to think what the death toll of all that was. I seem to recall the Khymer Rouge alone killed 1 million people.

 

 

The North European fall of communism was fairly unusual in that was was, by and large, bloodless. Im not aware it has been anywhere else. In large part it seems to me it was because when you have an authoritarian society that crushes discussion of any awkard baggage such as off nationalism, then when that authoritarianism disappears, then it unfreezes the permafrost and the bloodletting begins. The same thing happened when the British Empire left India, again, because we froze the permafrost of nationalism and sectarianism.


Edited by Stuart Galbraith, 25 August 2019 - 0340 AM.

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#346 bojan

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Posted 25 August 2019 - 0457 AM

...

What about Yugoslavia Chris?

 

That had nothing to do with communism.  Elections were already held in whole Yugoslavia and federal government represented results of those elections before any war has started.


Edited by bojan, 25 August 2019 - 0458 AM.

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#347 sunday

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Posted 25 August 2019 - 0519 AM

 

 

 

:rolleyes:

 

I thought it was just me.

 

 

One only has to compare this attitude with the British stance on Gibraltar. I suppose they will evolve the "not east of Suez" policy, probably the major reason to give HK to the PRC, to a "not south of Jersey" one in order to realize an isolated Gibraltar is an intolerable drain on HM Treasury, turn a blind eye on those Gib freeloaders, and end the history of the last Colony in Continental Europe.

 

Pot — Kettel.

Ceuta and Melilla, of which Morocco probably has a similar view. Just as Gibraltar is British by right of conquest, quite a while ago.

Spain acquired Gibraltar in 149... (?) and lost it in 1713. A bit over 200 years. So, it's been British for a bit over 300 years. And the locals seem to prefer British rule.

 

Would mentioning the Spanish Basque in this context be rude ...? :ph34r:

 

There are many bits and pieces of land which were conquered/occupied/annexed by some nation at some time in the past which now are part of that nation.  If you start rolling these up, where do you start (and end)?

 

Sorry, spelling

 

 

There was a Spain in 1713, there was not a Morocco in the 15th century. The idea of the Catholic Kings was to restore Christendom in the old Vandal kingdom of North Africa, before the dynastic change to the Habsburgs shifted the focus of Spain's European policy to the Holy Roman Empire. One could say that Morocco is an interloper state, or one could say that the whole of Spain south of the Cantabrian Mountains is in the same case as Ceuta and Melilla, and should became part of Dar-al-Islam again. That is the position of too many Muslims, by the way.

 

The Basque Provinces have been part of Castile since there was a Castile, despite what that racist madman Sabino Arana could have invented. I do not know if that could be qualified as rude, but perhaps misinformed.

 

Anyway, as of now, not Ceuta, not Melilla, not the Basque Provinces are colonies. The same could not be said about Gibraltar. Gibraltar does not elect any member in the Westminster Parliament, and is a colony according to both the EU, and the UN. Despite the may failings of the UN, that should provide a metric good enough to know where to start, and where to end.


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#348 JasonJ

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Posted 25 August 2019 - 0701 AM

Human chain along the length of a road worth 3 mins of driving.

 

Closer look.


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#349 JasonJ

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Posted 25 August 2019 - 0713 AM

And up on the mountain called Lion Rock Hill.

 

The song from the video is an old Cantonese song called "Below the Lion's Rock".


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#350 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 25 August 2019 - 0834 AM

 

...

What about Yugoslavia Chris?

 

That had nothing to do with communism.  Elections were already held in whole Yugoslavia and federal government represented results of those elections before any war has started.

 

 

Well the basic argument was that no change from Communism created bloodshed. I cant speak from knowledge about what Communism was like in the former Yugoslavia, but I know that its widely credited as keeping the lid on a lot of nationalist grievances that only emerged when the Communist regime disappeared. Which was also what has happened in the Former USSR.


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#351 JasonJ

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Posted 25 August 2019 - 1034 AM

Today brought in some fighting.

 


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#352 JasonJ

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Posted 25 August 2019 - 1036 AM

And yesterday.


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#353 Nobu

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Posted 25 August 2019 - 1109 AM


 


 


:rolleyes:

 
I thought it was just me.
 
 
One only has to compare this attitude with the British stance on Gibraltar. I suppose they will evolve the "not east of Suez" policy, probably the major reason to give HK to the PRC, to a "not south of Jersey" one in order to realize an isolated Gibraltar is an intolerable drain on HM Treasury, turn a blind eye on those Gib freeloaders, and end the history of the last Colony in Continental Europe.
 
Pot Kettel.
Ceuta and Melilla, of which Morocco probably has a similar view. Just as Gibraltar is British by right of conquest, quite a while ago.
Spain acquired Gibraltar in 149... (?) and lost it in 1713. A bit over 200 years. So, it's been British for a bit over 300 years. And the locals seem to prefer British rule.
 
Would mentioning the Spanish Basque in this context be rude ...? :ph34r:
 
There are many bits and pieces of land which were conquered/occupied/annexed by some nation at some time in the past which now are part of that nation.  If you start rolling these up, where do you start (and end)?
 
Sorry, spelling

As with so many things, what bits are rolled up depends on the political expediency of each particular instance. India and the question of Goa was an idea whose time had come. The same cannot be said right now of Spain and the idea of Gibraltar without a willingness to fight for the same.

Hoping someone else will do the necessary fighting for this level of political room to maneuver is a poor substitute for the willingness to do so on one's own in various ways.
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#354 Roman Alymov

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Posted 25 August 2019 - 1235 PM

And yesterday.

69232546_10220297134886402_1431927635331


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#355 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 25 August 2019 - 1239 PM

That bottom picture is like a Banksy painting. :D
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#356 Roman Alymov

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Posted 25 August 2019 - 1309 PM

That bottom picture is like a Banksy painting. :D

That's why Banksy is genius  - he captured the mood of the time.


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#357 Chris Werb

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Posted 25 August 2019 - 1350 PM

That bottom picture is like a Banksy painting. :D

 

An odd time to start paintballing... :)


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#358 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 25 August 2019 - 1356 PM

I didn't notice that, but yes. :D
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#359 DB

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Posted 25 August 2019 - 1909 PM

As I've probably mentioned several times before, it doesn't matter what actually happened, who did it and who was the victim.

 

It was, is and always will be the fault of Perfidious Albion.  :glare:


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#360 Stargrunt6

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Posted 25 August 2019 - 1949 PM


That bottom picture is like a Banksy painting. :D

That's why Banksy is genius  - he captured the mood of the time.

Banksy is an overrated hack whose work is as deep as 8th grade philosophy.

Screw him for demonizing the national guard in New Orleans.
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