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#381 JasonJ

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Posted 04 September 2019 - 0815 AM

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#382 JasonJ

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Posted 04 September 2019 - 0846 AM

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#383 Josh

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Posted 04 September 2019 - 1412 PM

 

An airborne assault by a division or thereabouts on Taiwan and its population of 23 million does not sound like a feasible military operation in terms of sheer scale in various ways.

 

 

China wishes it could deliver a brigade by air, let alone support it. Such a plan also assumes that every SAM remotely near the drop zone has been successfully identified and destroyed, including their indigenously made SHORADs systems, or else you have a couple hundred guys dying per airlifter and a lot less airlifters.


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#384 JWB

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Posted 04 September 2019 - 1440 PM

 

 

An airborne assault by a division or thereabouts on Taiwan and its population of 23 million does not sound like a feasible military operation in terms of sheer scale in various ways.

 

 

China wishes it could deliver a brigade by air, let alone support it. Such a plan also assumes that every SAM remotely near the drop zone has been successfully identified and destroyed, including their indigenously made SHORADs systems, or else you have a couple hundred guys dying per airlifter and a lot less airlifters.

 

That means the PRC can only take RoC by naval blockade and starvation. That may or may not succeed depending if RoC can make itself food self sufficient in the future.


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#385 JasonJ

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Posted 07 September 2019 - 0835 AM

Shaheen VIII - 空军“雄鹰-Ⅷ”

An annual air force joint-exercise between China and Pakistan going on now in the western part of China. The first iteration was in 2011.

shaheen8a2.jpg

 

shaheen8a3.jpg

Six more images in the spoiler

Spoiler

https://xw.qq.com/cm...0190907A0LKRT00

https://mil.news.sin...eu4089637.shtml


Edited by JasonJ, 07 September 2019 - 0835 AM.

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#386 Chris Werb

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 1650 PM

Please note I have deleted quite a few political or otherwise irrelevant posts from this thread.
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#387 Jeff

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 1809 PM

It's easier to defend against invasion when you know you're at war. What if the PRC does a series of exercises and feints to numb Taiwan and the world into lax readiness and then go for broke just as everyone is used to the gamesmanship?

 

Similar to how a naval ship would handle the Iranians and their swarm boat tactics. If you know they're coming in earnest, you can start to whittle them down at range but if there have been no hostilities and the naval ship is used to the Iranians boats milling about at fairly close range and then all of a sudden they open fire in earnest, a naval crew might have trouble getting the ship into action before the hits start to really take their toll. I was just watching a video on the HMAS Sydney and how the Kormoran took her out. The Aussies were caught with their pants down and many of the crew were cut to pieces trying to get to the light weapons to fire back at the Kormoran's light weapons wreaking havoc on the bridge and deck spaces. Meanwhile, the heavier weapons were pounding the turrets and hull. The Kormoran shouldn't have stood a chance and yet the close range and surprise made the difference.

 

It's that grey period between peace and war that can make a huge difference.


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#388 JasonJ

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Posted 09 September 2019 - 2354 PM

Yes, that's exactly part of the overall effort to expand. Its almost never so black and white. With a combination of grey zone activity or increased activity in technically legal areas, they can create new norms and eat away at will to resist.

For example, the number of times that PLA warships or aircraft circumvent Taiwan has been going up and increasing in sophistication. Its entirely internationally legal but but the increase in frequency, deployed power, and sophistication, a new reality will be created that the PLA comes closer and closer to having de facto control of the waters around Taiwan if the balance of power changes to their said. For example, in Dec 2016 it was the first time that a PLAN carrier group sailed through the Okinawa island chain and circled around Taiwan. Two more times a carrier group in 2017 and 2018. Again in June 2019 but ik this time, the navigation path didn't just go around Taiwan but went through the Okinawa islands and went near Guam then circled back underneath the Philippines and into the SCS.

Its always this pattern of inching up more and more activity. At some point, it'll be two carriers making the rounds. Then three doing. And their battle groups will feature more Type 52D destroyers, and Type 55 destroyers will be joining, etc etc. If so much display of naval firepower is making the rounds, then they may just win defacto control on Taiwan.
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#389 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 10 September 2019 - 0225 AM

It's easier to defend against invasion when you know you're at war. What if the PRC does a series of exercises and feints to numb Taiwan and the world into lax readiness and then go for broke just as everyone is used to the gamesmanship?

 

Similar to how a naval ship would handle the Iranians and their swarm boat tactics. If you know they're coming in earnest, you can start to whittle them down at range but if there have been no hostilities and the naval ship is used to the Iranians boats milling about at fairly close range and then all of a sudden they open fire in earnest, a naval crew might have trouble getting the ship into action before the hits start to really take their toll. I was just watching a video on the HMAS Sydney and how the Kormoran took her out. The Aussies were caught with their pants down and many of the crew were cut to pieces trying to get to the light weapons to fire back at the Kormoran's light weapons wreaking havoc on the bridge and deck spaces. Meanwhile, the heavier weapons were pounding the turrets and hull. The Kormoran shouldn't have stood a chance and yet the close range and surprise made the difference.

 

It's that grey period between peace and war that can make a huge difference.

 

Although in defence of the Aussies, they still won. :)

 

 

 

Picture here of what appears to be at least 5 J-20's flying in Formation. I feel its a little premature to say this means its in mass production, but it certainly points towards some progress.

https://www.business...019-9?r=US&IR=T


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#390 Nobu

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Posted 10 September 2019 - 1018 AM

Had not heard of the Sydney v Kormorant episode, which made for an interesting read. Rumors of Japanese involvement seem to have been premature.

J20 progress would be much easier to assess if one were to be obtained by defection. Curious if the Republic of Chinese are offering a reward for such an act in various ways.
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#391 JasonJ

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Posted 12 September 2019 - 0500 AM

Z-19s and Blackhawks Z-20s

z-19z-20.jpg


Edited by JasonJ, 12 September 2019 - 0501 AM.

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#392 Nobu

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Posted 12 September 2019 - 1135 AM

Have done some reading on the bounty once offered by the Republic of Chinese to any defecting Communist Chinese pilot, which was 6650 (!) ounces of gold. 

 

Treasure hunters may have been searching for Yamashita's gold on the wrong island all these years.


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#393 RETAC21

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Posted 14 September 2019 - 0306 AM

Yes, that's exactly part of the overall effort to expand. Its almost never so black and white. With a combination of grey zone activity or increased activity in technically legal areas, they can create new norms and eat away at will to resist.

For example, the number of times that PLA warships or aircraft circumvent Taiwan has been going up and increasing in sophistication. Its entirely internationally legal but but the increase in frequency, deployed power, and sophistication, a new reality will be created that the PLA comes closer and closer to having de facto control of the waters around Taiwan if the balance of power changes to their said. For example, in Dec 2016 it was the first time that a PLAN carrier group sailed through the Okinawa island chain and circled around Taiwan. Two more times a carrier group in 2017 and 2018. Again in June 2019 but ik this time, the navigation path didn't just go around Taiwan but went through the Okinawa islands and went near Guam then circled back underneath the Philippines and into the SCS.

Its always this pattern of inching up more and more activity. At some point, it'll be two carriers making the rounds. Then three doing. And their battle groups will feature more Type 52D destroyers, and Type 55 destroyers will be joining, etc etc. If so much display of naval firepower is making the rounds, then they may just win defacto control on Taiwan.

 

Train like you plan to fight. This is something the USN did off the Soviet Union in the 80s but it wasn't a portent of a first strike. I agree that it means Taiwan now needs to worry about 2 axis instead of one and that Guam is now within "range" of the PLA Navy


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#394 JasonJ

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Posted 15 September 2019 - 0617 AM

 

Yes, that's exactly part of the overall effort to expand. Its almost never so black and white. With a combination of grey zone activity or increased activity in technically legal areas, they can create new norms and eat away at will to resist.

For example, the number of times that PLA warships or aircraft circumvent Taiwan has been going up and increasing in sophistication. Its entirely internationally legal but but the increase in frequency, deployed power, and sophistication, a new reality will be created that the PLA comes closer and closer to having de facto control of the waters around Taiwan if the balance of power changes to their said. For example, in Dec 2016 it was the first time that a PLAN carrier group sailed through the Okinawa island chain and circled around Taiwan. Two more times a carrier group in 2017 and 2018. Again in June 2019 but ik this time, the navigation path didn't just go around Taiwan but went through the Okinawa islands and went near Guam then circled back underneath the Philippines and into the SCS.

Its always this pattern of inching up more and more activity. At some point, it'll be two carriers making the rounds. Then three doing. And their battle groups will feature more Type 52D destroyers, and Type 55 destroyers will be joining, etc etc. If so much display of naval firepower is making the rounds, then they may just win defacto control on Taiwan.

 

Train like you plan to fight. This is something the USN did off the Soviet Union in the 80s but it wasn't a portent of a first strike. I agree that it means Taiwan now needs to worry about 2 axis instead of one and that Guam is now within "range" of the PLA Navy

 

 

On that thought, not long ago, it was reported that Japan said that Chinese JH-7 fighter-bombers likely used actual JMSDF destroyers in the East China Sea as mock targets for training. China says that's not true.

Spoiler
https://japantoday.c...china-sea-drill
Spoiler
http://eng.chinamil....ent_9594626.htm
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#395 JasonJ

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Posted 15 September 2019 - 0619 AM

Since there is going to be a military parade on October 1st, there's been numerous rehearsals and sightings as of late. Some UAVs.

parade3.jpg

 

parade1.jpg

 

parade2.jpg


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#396 Nobu

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Posted 15 September 2019 - 1109 AM


Yes, that's exactly part of the overall effort to expand. Its almost never so black and white. With a combination of grey zone activity or increased activity in technically legal areas, they can create new norms and eat away at will to resist.

For example, the number of times that PLA warships or aircraft circumvent Taiwan has been going up and increasing in sophistication. Its entirely internationally legal but but the increase in frequency, deployed power, and sophistication, a new reality will be created that the PLA comes closer and closer to having de facto control of the waters around Taiwan if the balance of power changes to their said. For example, in Dec 2016 it was the first time that a PLAN carrier group sailed through the Okinawa island chain and circled around Taiwan. Two more times a carrier group in 2017 and 2018. Again in June 2019 but ik this time, the navigation path didn't just go around Taiwan but went through the Okinawa islands and went near Guam then circled back underneath the Philippines and into the SCS.

Its always this pattern of inching up more and more activity. At some point, it'll be two carriers making the rounds. Then three doing. And their battle groups will feature more Type 52D destroyers, and Type 55 destroyers will be joining, etc etc. If so much display of naval firepower is making the rounds, then they may just win defacto control on Taiwan.

 
Train like you plan to fight. This is something the USN did off the Soviet Union in the 80s but it wasn't a portent of a first strike. I agree that it means Taiwan now needs to worry about 2 axis instead of one and that Guam is now within "range" of the PLA Navy
That may explain why the Republic of Chinese have shown little interest in training for a fight against the soft merchant shipping underbelly of their most likely opponent, as the cargoes they would be sinking in doing so might actually be owned by their own corporations doing business with it in various ways.

Edited by Nobu, 15 September 2019 - 1112 AM.

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