The IJN will continue as the dominant navy among the region's members. Its steady but largely unheralded growth reflects long range planning, training readiness and an acceptable learning curve. The value of CVs in areas now well covered by landbased aircraft remains mostly symbolic. Joint warfare skills will pay off best and Japan and Singapore are well ahead of the pack.
The JMSDF may have enjoy a superior level of quality of equipment and training, but the PRC has closed the gap in pretty much every measureable way to the point of near parity in basic force structure, and in submarines it has arguably already ahead equipment wise. They have a dozen+ Songs and Yuan, and a dozen Kilo's off the top of my head, and are comissioning several new nuke boats soon from what I understand. They have an Aegis like platform of which mayb e 3-4 are in service and modern, short range SAM equiped fridgates to round out a surface flotilla. Fair amount of land based air and tanking assets now, as well as AWACS. There's a CV possibly getting ready for some training in that area at the least. About the only thing I'd give the JMSDF a clear advantage in is ASW, and in that case, the advantage isn't due to numbers of platforms at this point AFAIK.
As for land based air making embarked a/c less necessary, that's a more dicey possibility against the number of MRBMs the PRC has. They might have a hard time smothering more than a few major air bases with enough ordnance to permamently shut them down, but they could trickle in single missiles at a time to all but criple opperations for days or weeks for several different targets if they decided that's where their ballistic missile focus would be. Basically only the US and Japan have sufficient air power to be worth wasing such assets on anyway--Kadena and Guam would be likely targets repeatedly, unless Guam is further away than I think it is.
I agree with Thomas assessment.
Edited by Josh, 08 June 2011 - 2219 PM.