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The Little Known Ww2 Battle Of Russia Vs Japan, Manchuria


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#41 urbanoid

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Posted 08 July 2019 - 0500 AM

 

A well-timed Japanese attack on Russia could only have increased the chances of a Russian collapse and a mental breakdown from Stalin in 1941. Marching on Moscow would be out of the question for the IJA, admittedly. The goal would be to force the Russians to operate at the end of the Trans-Siberian Railway under conditions of complete Japanese air dominance and sea command.

Attack where? Vladivostok? Would the Japanese be capable of holding this city even if they did capture it?

 

Well, they were able to attack AND hold quite a lot of places at the time, and Stalin in latter half of 1941 had much bigger problems.


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#42 JasonJ

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Posted 08 July 2019 - 0552 AM

If the northern plan went down, and without a Pacific campaign, development of ground force equipment wouldn't have been delayed. By 1943, new 57mm anti-tank guns were developed, a medium lenght one of about 46 calibers and a long one of of around 57 calibers. These were not adopted because of resouce limitations due to the Pacific War, so the 47mm marched on.

Type 98 or Type 2 light tanks might have gotten priority for production for replacing the Ha-Go.

The Type 1 Ho-Ni was fully developed and tested out by the end of 1941 but production was limited and delayed. It was a direct fire 75mmL38 field gun with 50mm front plate, open top. So it would be expected that these would have been in full production by late 1941 if it was Far East war. Tank regiments were designed to be 1 company of LTs, 3 companies of MTs, and 1 company of "gun-tanks". The Ho-Ni was designed to fill the "gun-tank" role which was fire support. In 1942, the Ho-I "gun-tank" was developed. It was a revolving closed turret with a short 75mm, 50mm front armor, 240hp.

Instead of Chi-Ha with the Shin-hoto, priorities in production would have went to the Type 1 Chi-He.

So for 1942, could expect tank regiments to be made up of Type 98s Ke-ni LTs (if not the Ha-Go), Type Chi-He mediums, and either Ho-Ni or Ho-I

The Chi-To medium tank program was also delayed with a delayed prototype completed in May of 1944. If given priority, maybe it would be ready a year eailier. At that stage, it was 420hp diesel engine, 25 tons, 57mmL46, 75mm front armor. So by mid to late '43, these would be taking the place of the Chi-He. It received the demand for a long 75mm gun when the protype was completed in 1944. Maybe priorities would speed up requirement for the long 75mm so maybe could be available before early 1945.

If Chi-To was able to be developed in a timely manner as described, then there would be no need for the stop-gap tank which.was the Type 3 Chi-Nu, so then no Chi-Nu development.

Still, the Soviets summoned up one heck of a force in mid 1945. And soviet tanks still had the bigger guns and heavier armor.

Edited by JasonJ, 08 July 2019 - 0743 AM.

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#43 Nobu

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Posted 08 July 2019 - 0910 AM


A well-timed Japanese attack on Russia could only have increased the chances of a Russian collapse and a mental breakdown from Stalin in 1941. Marching on Moscow would be out of the question for the IJA, admittedly. The goal would be to force the Russians to operate at the end of the Trans-Siberian Railway under conditions of complete Japanese air dominance and sea command.

Attack where? Vladivostok? Would the Japanese be capable of holding this city even if they did capture it?
Yes, as the logistical advantage would be in the favor of Japan and Japanese in such a campaign based on proximity to the industrial output of Manchuria alone, under the capable leadership of Abe's grandfather.

The advantage of surprise would take a devastating toll on Soviet airpower in such a campaign as well. One their air force in the region would not recover from without priority over Europe.

Vladivostok? Without question. If Stalin demands its recapture, together with the requisite expenditure of Soviet manpower and resources to undertake the offensive required of the attempt as the Wehrmacht rampages in European Russia, so much the better.

Edited by Nobu, 08 July 2019 - 1210 PM.

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#44 R011

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Posted 08 July 2019 - 2139 PM

The last time Japan attacked the Soviets, in 1939, it went very poorly for them. Stalin was not about to weaken the Far East unless he was confident Japan was not going to attack. Soviet intelligence was very well informed about Japanese intentions at the time decisions needed to be made.

Not to mention Japan needed the rubber and oil of the south. There was little or nothing to gain from attacking Siberia.
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#45 Nobu

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Posted 09 July 2019 - 0056 AM

Russian intelligence was indeed well informed, thanks to the work of Sorge and the lesser-known but fascinating Hotsumi Ozaki. 


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#46 Markus Becker

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Posted 09 July 2019 - 0227 AM


 


A well-timed Japanese attack on Russia could only have increased the chances of a Russian collapse and a mental breakdown from Stalin in 1941. Marching on Moscow would be out of the question for the IJA, admittedly. The goal would be to force the Russians to operate at the end of the Trans-Siberian Railway under conditions of complete Japanese air dominance and sea command.

Attack where? Vladivostok? Would the Japanese be capable of holding this city even if they did capture it?
 
Well, they were able to attack AND hold quite a lot of places at the time, and Stalin in latter half of 1941 had much bigger problems.

Sort of. The places in question were rather lightly defended colonial outposts.
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#47 Brian Kennedy

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Posted 13 July 2019 - 1200 PM

Going back to the first post (about the Soviet invasion in 1945), the KIA ratio (12k USSR vs 20k Japanese) is pretty surprising given the disparity in forces, mechanization, etc. I wonder if either Japan put up a much tougher fight than most accounts give them credit for, or the sources are suspect (no idea either way).


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#48 Ken Estes

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Posted 13 July 2019 - 1533 PM

Untrained Rus conscripts vs. ideologically determined JA, drunk on saki?


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#49 Nobu

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Posted 13 July 2019 - 1838 PM

Rather difficult to challenge the Soviet Air Force as well they did in the skies over Manchukuo in 1939 with Imperial Army Air Force pilots drunk on anything, their professionalism and combat experience at this time point notwithstanding.

Edited by Nobu, 13 July 2019 - 2115 PM.

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#50 Ken Estes

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Posted 14 July 2019 - 0730 AM

Who mentioned pilots? Get a grip.


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#51 GARGEAN

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Posted 27 July 2019 - 1102 AM

Going back to the first post (about the Soviet invasion in 1945), the KIA ratio (12k USSR vs 20k Japanese) is pretty surprising given the disparity in forces, mechanization, etc. I wonder if either Japan put up a much tougher fight than most accounts give them credit for, or the sources are suspect (no idea either way).

It was combination of unfamiliar climate and diseases with "unfair" fight from Japanese side (like positioning water sources and stuff).
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#52 Ken Estes

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Posted 27 July 2019 - 1735 PM

The posts made to date have fairly handled the reality of 1945 for the JA in Manchuria, not to speak of the home islands.


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#53 Detonable

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Posted 14 August 2019 - 1317 PM

Germany had a large chemicals industry. As a result, they were able to make synthetic fuel from coal. Suppose the Japanese licensed this technology from their German allies? Then, less need to go south as aggressively as they did. If the oil supply line isnt there the Philippines arent a threat to it. I realize there were other raw materials there.
I kind of feel the Japanese wanted to grab what they could while the Europeans were in disarray.
Japan had fights with the Soviet Union, China, European colonies, and the US. Thats way more enemies than their population and resources could defeat. Make peace with the Soviets as they did, leave the US alone, trade with the colonies, and focus on China. That would have been manageable.
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#54 Adam_S

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Posted 16 August 2019 - 1745 PM

Synthetic fuel sucked though. Yes it was chemically feasible but it was expensive both in terms of money and energy and was hard to produce in large quantities.


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#55 MiloMorai

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Posted 17 August 2019 - 1548 PM

https://drive.google...BwZAfhTKF7/view

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USSBS: Oil Division Final Report


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