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#2041 JasonJ

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Posted 06 March 2019 - 0928 AM

The only reason I'd piss all over Trump is because he 1). explicitly stated there was no longer a threat after the last summit and 2). has been gushing over his relationship with Kim ever since. I consider this relevant for future negotiations because it does imply that he is incredibly naive. His negotiating style is to lay no ground work and have no negotiators make preparations and just assume that he personally through relationships and force of will can generate a favorable outcome. That is not international negotiations work. I'm not even particularly sure its how land deals in New York work. Compare his prep to say Reagan going to Iceland; there were months of prep between high level officials. I use Reagan as an example only because so many at TN and Faux News make that same comparison. That ignores the fact Reagan never negotiated as half assed as Trump does.

 

One other point that probably could have been added was that Fat-Kim has a small team of internet watchers that look outside the the DPRK internet firewall and look at international news and what not. Fat-Kim cares dearly about his perception and I reckon he cares enough about it to get some sweet talk out of Trump. But everyone else both in his camp and his opposition still say the obvious about the nature of Kim and DPRK itself. Although when Trump is pressed on that by a journalists, he does openly admit the horrific nature of Kim and DPRK. But the interviewer has to dig for it a little. It is like pulling teeth. Maybe he shouldn't and maybe he is too carelessly giving Fat-Kim some points of legitimacy. But as I have said before, in 2017, he was all "Fire and Fury" which was the run up towards the passing of the UNSC sanctions. Among that rhetoric was a speech he gave in November 2017 in South Korea which has the ring of Reagan idealism.

 

 

In the speech he has a part praising South Korea for its development of economy, culture, democracy and of being a US ally. And he strongly contrasted it at 15:10 with a long description of the despicable nature of the DPRK.

 

Should another rocket go off flying, I would expect a return to "Fire and Fury". But if no rocket goes up, then that might mean the lip service is serviing a function in keeping the rockets from flying.


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#2042 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 06 March 2019 - 0943 AM

 

Mission accomplished.  :closedeyes:

 

Well yeah, of course, as a politician (or heck, even as a businessman), he's going to maximize prestige points.

 

But a number of points remain.

 

Technically speaking, DPRK became a nuclear power much earlier, not on Trump's watch. Not able to deliver on a long range rocket but certainly has been able to plant a nuke mine. Something that will have to be taking into consideration should large armies of friendlies have to go in.

 

China isn't going to be forced into cooperating enough to the extent that the Kim regime is at risk of collapsing, it doesn't matter who POTUS is. That means the only true possibility of forcing through actual denuclearization with no more Fat-Kim games is the use of force. It is a very high cost to ask for. And there is still the risk of a long drawn out occupation that can really drain the US when they need to keep forces ready for peer competition over the long term.

 

One more point is South Korea. There are many dove thinkers in there these days. President Moon is one of them. China has quite a lot of economic influence in there too. The US position in negotiations with DPRK would be stronger if the US was able to form a strong 3 ally front. That being US-ROK-JPN. But ROK has been utterly hopeless towards that trilateral defense development. Japan is ready for it. Under presidents like President Moon, they pander DPRK while throwing nonsense one after another at Japan. Some Japanese right wingers already think ROK is a lost cause and they think the future for East Asia security is a trilateral that doesn't include ROK but is made up of the US-JPN-Taiwan. To be frank, the US side is overly apologetic to ROK sentiments. But it is mostly the left leaning softies in ROK that have been getting stronger political hold. The right wing in ROK has become smaller but they are generally more Pro-US than the lefties that include Moon. But if the US was to take a more critical tone on ROK (like Japan right wingers), then ROK in general might just more easily slip even more towards DPRK sympathy. It's really a tough pickle.

 

So that.. and I could drivel on.. but the DPRK problem, as we all know, was a problem snowballing for a long time. The first DPRK nuke test was in 2006. And there was no UNSC backed sanctions. Another nuke in 2009. Nope no sanctions. And some more. All before Trump.

 

So if he wants to over advertise with his "tremendous progress made" regarding DPRK, then what ever, it was still more action taken than what was taken before him. Giving how it is pretty much impossible (short of total war) to get Fat-Kim to denuclearize, as an ally, not going to rock the boat with relations with he US by roughing up the feathers by complaining about his advertisement. The real problem isn't Trump. Its Fat-Kim and China. I find it funny how the point of view about China not wanting DPRK to have nukes gets thrown out there. But it is not the US but China that has the economic nose on DPRK. If China didn't want DPRK nukes, why didn't they do something after DPRK's first nuke test in 2006? Or 2009? Or afterwards. The whole time, the US would always have to put up a grand show of military force. All China needed to do was cut the economic link to DPRK. It would do no economic harm to China. So the point about China also not liking DPRK nukes falls flat on its face IMO. So whats the point in pissing over Trump on this. Should the day come, Japan forces will be ready to work with the US to take out the trash. That war military cooperation would work better for the US and Japan if there isn't a recent past of irritation and frustration between the US and Japan over DPRK. Sounds like a seed of dysfunction that the DPRK would like to see between the US and Japan, China too for that matter. Smoothing out WW2 related interpretations between the US and Japan is already quite hard enough. So in the meantime, the US and Japan will do what should be done, practice together, such as the recent BMD joint-training they conducted.

 

 

It certainly was not a problem made by Trump. And credit where its due, he engaged with the problem fully, realising its seriousness. That far, im fully on board with him.

 

But he said it was done. That it was finished, that North Korea was no longer a problem, that he and Kim wre in love and war was impossible.  I pointed out this was folly on the FFZ, and predictably there were few listeners.

 

So now they have to start all over again, and we probably will see missiles overflying japan again. Only now he has weaknened his negotiating position, by pretending that Kim is reasonable and that military action is impossible. Its a  mess.

 

 

This foreign policy was so stupid, it could have been thought up by the Obama whitehouse. Yes, it was that bad.


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#2043 JasonJ

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Posted 06 March 2019 - 1014 AM

 

 

 

 

 

 

It certainly was not a problem made by Trump. And credit where its due, he engaged with the problem fully, realising its seriousness. That far, im fully on board with him.

 

But he said it was done. That it was finished, that North Korea was no longer a problem, that he and Kim wre in love and war was impossible.  I pointed out this was folly on the FFZ, and predictably there were few listeners.

 

So now they have to start all over again, and we probably will see missiles overflying japan again. Only now he has weaknened his negotiating position, by pretending that Kim is reasonable and that military action is impossible. Its a  mess.

 

 

This foreign policy was so stupid, it could have been thought up by the Obama whitehouse. Yes, it was that bad.

 

 

I'm not sure in what context he's said "it was done". He also said that he was in no rush to push even harder for denuclearization and that the sanctions will remain in place. So the ball is in Fat-Kim's hands as to whether or not he wants to try sending up some rockets again. Typically, if he does so, it'll likely be some minor ones first, like 300mm rockets into the sea, or some short range 500km sort of old scud first.

 

I again have to press on the to other points, the two other alternatives. One is war. The other is China. War would be hell. And China is never going to cooperate sufficiently. Those two controls are going to make any policy approach look stupid because nothing else is going to solve it, although solid trilateral US-ROK-JPN defense relations would help.

 

TBH, I don't think it would be difficult for Trump to turn on Fat-Kim. I've listened to hours of his speeches, rallies, and so on. He's even turned on Mad-Dog. And he's hinted in his rhetoric of switching on Xi, sometimes saying that he might not be his friend anymore. He can turn on Kim on a dime. Typical Trump rhetoric..."I thought we had something going, I was calling him by good things, you know, but now, I'm not so sure. I promised him an economic paradise (arms wide open gesture). But he said no. I guess he forgot about the my nuke button is bigger than his. Not so smart. etc etc etc." ... He has the rhetorical capacity to do it easily.


Edited by JasonJ, 06 March 2019 - 1015 AM.

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#2044 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 06 March 2019 - 1049 AM

Well there was this.

http://dailypost.ng/...-problem-trump/

 

“There is no longer a nuclear threat from North Korea. Meeting with Kim Jong Un was an interesting and very positive experience. North Korea has great potential for the future.

 

“North Korea also is no longer the United States’ biggest and most dangerous problem,” Trump wrote on Twitter.

 

As someone once told me, if wishes were horses, the world would be full of rocking horse shit. :)


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#2045 JasonJ

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Posted 06 March 2019 - 1058 AM

He was just exagerating like usual, talkng up the sentiment for the given moment. It's annoying since of course its not true. Those quotes were right after the first summit with Kim in June 2018. There are of course more examples of the lip service. But I still maintain the points that I have said in the previous posts.
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#2046 JWB

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Posted 06 March 2019 - 1211 PM

China's leverage over NK is over stated. If they push too hard Rocket Boy can send millions of refugees into China. If China pulls a regime change that refugee problem will be even worse.


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#2047 glenn239

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Posted 06 March 2019 - 1218 PM

China's leverage over NK is over stated. If they push too hard Rocket Boy can send millions of refugees into China. If China pulls a regime change that refugee problem will be even worse.

 

The NK negotiating position is much stronger with China than without it though.

 

Stuart As someone once told me, if wishes were horses, the world would be full of rocking horse shit. '

 

 

Trump's style is to blow sunshine up Kim's ass in hopes of a deal.  The actual sticking point is the US insistence that NK nuclear disarmament takes place before sanctions are dropped.  The Norks want simultaneous action instead.


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#2048 JWB

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Posted 06 March 2019 - 1250 PM

 

China's leverage over NK is over stated. If they push too hard Rocket Boy can send millions of refugees into China. If China pulls a regime change that refugee problem will be even worse.

 

The NK negotiating position is much stronger with China than without it though.

 

That position only holds when China and NK have mutual interests on an issue. How often does that happen? How many diplomatic issue do the two agree on?

Almost none.


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#2049 glenn239

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Posted 06 March 2019 - 1301 PM

For China the matter should be less mutual interests between China and North Korea - which are trivial for China - than it is the diplomatic and economic environment between China and the USA - which are large.  If NK tests a missile and the US starts sabre rattling in reply, will China improve its leverage with the US more by helping North Korea to show the whip hand, or helping the USA with a carrot?  


Edited by glenn239, 06 March 2019 - 1302 PM.

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#2050 JWB

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Posted 06 March 2019 - 1322 PM

For China the matter should be less mutual interests between China and North Korea - which are trivial for China - than it is the diplomatic and economic environment between China and the USA - which are large.  If NK tests a missile and the US starts sabre rattling in reply, will China improve its leverage with the US more by helping North Korea to show the whip hand, or helping the USA with a carrot?  

China can't manipulate NK enough to use it as leverage against the USA. Rocket Boy is way too shrewd for such a cheap trick. China has many interests and policy goals in the region but  the only realistic ones are to promote and maintain stability. Nuke and rocket tests by NK do the opposite.

https://www.cfr.org/...ea-relationship


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#2051 Nobu

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Posted 06 March 2019 - 1358 PM

It certainly was not a problem made by Trump. And credit where its due, he engaged with the problem fully, realising its seriousness. That far, im fully on board with him.

 

Credit was due, as when spurred to action, his response was the correct one. His follow-up was lacking however, almost as if he told his aides to "handle it" for him as he moved on to other interests. However, unlike Nixon, who had Kissenger, Trump has a collection of aides and advisors with agendas of their own, as illustrated by Bolton in his recent CNN interview.

 

This foreign policy was so stupid, it could have been thought up by the Obama whitehouse. Yes, it was that bad.

 

Almost as stupid as Obama basing his pivot to Asia on a South China Sea strategy that actually aligned Taipei and Beijing into an alliance of shared interests.


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#2052 glenn239

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Posted 06 March 2019 - 1406 PM

JWB China can't manipulate NK enough to use it as leverage against the USA. Rocket Boy is way too shrewd for such a cheap trick. China has many interests and policy goals in the region but  the only realistic ones are to promote and maintain stability. Nuke and rocket tests by NK do the opposite.

 

 

 

The question remains, if NK tests a missile, will China improve its leverage on the US by supporting the US or by supporting NK?


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#2053 Nobu

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Posted 06 March 2019 - 1512 PM

That position only holds when China and NK have mutual interests on an issue. How often does that happen? How many diplomatic issue do the two agree on? Almost none.

 

China can't manipulate NK enough to use it as leverage against the USA. Rocket Boy is way too shrewd for such a cheap trick. China has many interests and policy goals in the region but  the only realistic ones are to promote and maintain stability. Nuke and rocket tests by NK do the opposite.

 

This is correct on both counts.

 

The question remains, if NK tests a missile, will China improve its leverage on the US by supporting the US or by supporting NK?

 

It will be interesting to find out, as North Korean intermediate range missile capability is equally capable of targeting China as it is Japan. If the history of the Korean people is any indication, they can perhaps hardly be blamed for doing so. There is a mountain of noses and ears hacked off of the bodies of tens of thousands of Koreans dating back to the Sengoku Period outside Kyoto that can attest to this in various ways.


Edited by Nobu, 06 March 2019 - 1514 PM.

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#2054 JWB

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Posted 06 March 2019 - 1519 PM

 

JWB China can't manipulate NK enough to use it as leverage against the USA. Rocket Boy is way too shrewd for such a cheap trick. China has many interests and policy goals in the region but  the only realistic ones are to promote and maintain stability. Nuke and rocket tests by NK do the opposite.

 

 

 

The question remains, if NK tests a missile, will China improve its leverage on the US by supporting the US or by supporting NK?

 

By siding with the USA. If China sides with NK the sanctions against China will increase. Not just from the USA but from every country in the region. And many countries around the world. 


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#2055 JWB

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Posted 06 March 2019 - 1525 PM

Resumption of testing will destabilize the region further and put pressure on Tokyo to start its own weapons program. 


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#2056 glenn239

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Posted 06 March 2019 - 1549 PM

 

 

JWB China can't manipulate NK enough to use it as leverage against the USA. Rocket Boy is way too shrewd for such a cheap trick. China has many interests and policy goals in the region but  the only realistic ones are to promote and maintain stability. Nuke and rocket tests by NK do the opposite.

 

 

 

The question remains, if NK tests a missile, will China improve its leverage on the US by supporting the US or by supporting NK?

 

By siding with the USA. If China sides with NK the sanctions against China will increase. Not just from the USA but from every country in the region. And many countries around the world. 

 

 

But if they side with the US, then Trump can pocket the assistance given for free without compensation and continue ramping up the pressure on China anyways.


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#2057 JWB

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Posted 06 March 2019 - 1557 PM

 

 

 

JWB China can't manipulate NK enough to use it as leverage against the USA. Rocket Boy is way too shrewd for such a cheap trick. China has many interests and policy goals in the region but  the only realistic ones are to promote and maintain stability. Nuke and rocket tests by NK do the opposite.

 

 

 

The question remains, if NK tests a missile, will China improve its leverage on the US by supporting the US or by supporting NK?

 

By siding with the USA. If China sides with NK the sanctions against China will increase. Not just from the USA but from every country in the region. And many countries around the world. 

 

 

But if they side with the US, then Trump can pocket the assistance given for free without compensation and continue ramping up the pressure on China anyways.

 

What assistance?

Trump will not ramp up beyond what he already put into place. That would be incredibly stupid and would violate his "art of the deal".


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#2058 JasonJ

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Posted 06 March 2019 - 1918 PM

China's leverage over NK is over stated. If they push too hard Rocket Boy can send millions of refugees into China. If China pulls a regime change that refugee problem will be even worse.


Which is an indication that China doesn't really mind a nuke DPRK. If China's cooperation went to the full and risked refugees, they can plea for international support. ROK would most certaianly aid China in the temporary camp setup.

But no, China even gave DPRK TELs imagined as "log movers".

Really, DPRK is part of China's bag of leverage tools against the US in all seriousness.

If the DPRK's top priority was regime survival, China gurantees it. DPRK ICBMs wouldn't be needed for that. But they went and showed the whole world ICBM launches that can threaten the US homeland. China didn't mind and did nothing, not until the US twisted China's arm at the UNSC.
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#2059 Nobu

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Posted 07 March 2019 - 0121 AM

Trump could art of the deal himself into a shared Nobel with Kim if he continues to engage him, as they appear to actually be building a rapport in various ways. Something that Abe tried and failed to build with Trump it must be admitted.

Edited by Nobu, 07 March 2019 - 0122 AM.

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#2060 glenn239

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Posted 07 March 2019 - 0857 AM

 

What assistance?

 

Trump will not ramp up beyond what he already put into place. That would be incredibly stupid and would violate his "art of the deal".

 

 

Trump has shouted from the rooftops that NK better not resume testing....so what if they do?

 

China and the US are currently negotiating a huge trade deal far more important to China than the NK nuclear program - that's the lens by which Beijing will view any resumption of NK testing.


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