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#261 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 17 February 2020 - 0420 AM

I could believe it is a bioweapon. I could even believe it was deliberately released. For example, In the 1950's there was a British Government program to release a cold bug and monitor its release among the common population. It was deliberately blown on members of the public entering london underground stations. The idea was that by monitoring it via the NHS, they could have an accurate data set of how a biological weapon would transmit among the population (I bet that paper is getting a lot of reading in Whitehall right now, or at least, so I would hope).

 

The problem is, that bug didnt kill anyone. This one does. Though as Chris suggests, its an amazingly crap one. So it falls between two stools. Its NOT safe enough to be a deliberate release as a marker for test. And it doesnt kill enough people to be a battlefield weapon accidentally released. Soooo......

 

Isnt the world troubled enough that right wing media and politicians in America have to pretend its even worse? What the hell is wrong with them?


Edited by Stuart Galbraith, 17 February 2020 - 0422 AM.

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#262 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 17 February 2020 - 0423 AM

The real problem about mortality rate is that since most infected seem to develop only symptoms of a mild cold, at best the flu (in flu season) and some seem never to fall ill at all, there's probably an unknown but potentially huge number who don't even suspect they are infected, or see a doctor at all. So the ratio of total cases to deaths may be much higher, i. e. mortality much lower than even the currently calculated  0.5 percent outside China.

 

Along the same lines, on the bioweapon thing I fail to see the use of one that kills only 80-year-olds given Western medical standards.

Well its one way of purging the party of Maoists I suppose. :D


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#263 JasonJ

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Posted 17 February 2020 - 0500 AM

I couldn't say that its particulaly deadly but I couldn't go as far as saying its crap either. There's no denying that it's doing quite some damage to Hubei province. The place is in lock down to prevent further spreading and is waiting for the current infections to hurry and go away.
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#264 BansheeOne

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Posted 17 February 2020 - 0706 AM

I wouldn't rule out an accidental release from a lab either, which apparently has happened before in China. I'm just not going for the whole "any deadly virus is a designer bioweapon, any non-deadly virus is an unfinished designer bioweapon" stuff that crops up in any epidemic that makes the news.

Chinese research lab denies rumours of links to first coronavirus patient

Jun Mai

Published: 9:00pm, 16 Feb, 2020

A Chinese virus research institute located at the epicentre of a coronavirus outbreak has denied links to the first patient diagnosed with the disease, amid speculation about the source of the virus.

In a statement on Sunday, the Wuhan Institute of Virology denied that one of its employees was the outbreaks patient zero.

Recently there has been fake information about Huang Yanling, a graduate from our institute, claiming that she was patient zero in the novel coronavirus, the institute said.

It said it had verified that the claim was not true.

It said Huang was a graduate student at the institute until 2015, when she left the province and had not returned since. Huang was in good health and had not been diagnosed with disease, it added.

The disease, now known as Covid-19, has sickened some 60,000 people around the world and killed more than 1,500, most of them in Hubei province in central China.

So far, the first patient with the illness has not been publicly identified.

While Chinese researchers and officials say the coronavirus is probably linked to wild animal consumption mostly likely bats, according to Wu Yuanbin, from the Ministry of Science and Technology there have been claims that the virus is associated with a state lab in the City.

While there is no evidence to support the claims, new central government regulations covering state biotechnology laboratories have helped fan the speculation.

On Saturday, the ministry issued a directive calling for improved management of viruses by all biological labs, and for the facilities to ensure biological safety.

Chinese authorities have said the virus is believed to be from a seafood market in Wuhan, after a cluster of patients linked the market were identified in December.

But the first patient diagnosed by the virus never visited the market, according to a study published January 24 in The Lancet medical journal.

In the paper, the researchers, seven of whom work at Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital, said the first patient had no exposure to the market and there was also no epidemiological link between the first patient and the later cases.

The research was based on data from the first 41 patients with confirmed infections.

[...]

China did have an outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, or Sars, due to a leak from a laboratory in 2004, killing one person and infecting nine others, according to state media.

Chinese authorities said that the leak was a result of negligence and five senior officials at the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention were punished.



https://www.scmp.com...rst-coronavirus

Edited by BansheeOne, 17 February 2020 - 0707 AM.

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#265 Tim the Tank Nut

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Posted 17 February 2020 - 0922 AM

China is already nature's lab for respiratory illness.  Most Flu strains get to the rest of the world thanks to China.

Occam's razor surely applies in this case


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#266 Nobu

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Posted 17 February 2020 - 1055 AM

It could be manmade, but after the 2011 tsunami, I am less inclined to underestimate the capability of mother nature.
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#267 Tim the Tank Nut

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Posted 17 February 2020 - 1138 AM

it took you til 2011 to figure out how dangerous nature is?

Have you heard of Pompeii?


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#268 JasonJ

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Posted 22 February 2020 - 0246 AM

There's been a surge of cases in South Korea in the last few days, currently at 346.
Spoiler
http://m.koreaherald...=20200222000019
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#269 Der Zeitgeist

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Posted 22 February 2020 - 0321 AM

Also, there's new clusters in Iran and northern Italy and cases in Canada and Lebanon originating from Iran. 


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#270 JasonJ

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Posted 22 February 2020 - 0409 AM

Very contagious virus.
Number of cases in ROK reported now 433.
Spoiler
https://m-en.yna.co....tional/national
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#271 BansheeOne

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Posted 22 February 2020 - 0410 AM

Date 21.02.2020

 

Coronavirus: Italy reports first death from COVID-19

 

An elderly man from Padua has died after being infected with the coronavirus. Officials in northern Italy have ordered schools, public buildings, and restaurants to close after a cluster of new infections emerged.

 

An Italian man infected with coronavirus died on Friday, becoming the first death of a European national linked to the deadly illness that has spread across the globe.

 

The elderly man died in a hospital in the northern city of Padua, Italian Health Minister Roberto Speranza said on Friday. He said that the 78-year-old had been in the hospital for 10 days for an unrelated illness. 

 

The victim was one of two people who had tested positive for COVID-19 in the Veneto region. Last weekend, France reported the first death in Europe from the virus — a Chinese tourist who had been visiting Paris.

 

Scramble to contain the outbreak

 

Earlier in the day, officials had ordered schools, public buildings, restaurants and coffee shops in ten towns in northern Italy to close after a cluster of 15 other cases emerged.

 

All cases were located in the Lombardy region, where a 38-year-old man fell ill with the virus after meeting someone who returned from China in late January. Five doctors and nurses and several patients were infected at the hospital in Codogno where he was treated.

 

Three other people, who all visited the same cafe in the Lombardy region, also tested positive for the virus.

 

Hundreds of people have been put in isolation and are being tested for the virus, Italian health officials have said. Over 150 co-workers of the 38-year-old, as well as 70 medical staff at Codogna hospital, are among those being tested.

 

The new cases represent the first acquired through secondary contagion in Italy and brought the total number of confirmed cases up to 17.

 

COVID-19 spreads globally

 

The COVID-19 virus has now infected more than 77,000 people worldwide, with China, where the virus originated, by far the worst affected. China has reported some 2,345 deaths, mostly in the central province of Hubei. 

 

And while Beijing said new cases of Covid-19 had dropped to 397 on Saturday — down from 889 a day earlier, South Korea reported a major jump in the number of infections, with 228 new cases since Friday, taking the total number of infected to 433.

 

The country, which now has the second-largest number of infections after China, also reported a second death from the virus.

 

Most of the cases in South Korea center around the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, a religious sect in the southern city of Daegu. More than 120 members of the church have been infected.

 

Officials believe that the tally could rise significantly higher, as over 1,000 members of the Shincheonji church reported feeling flu-like symptoms. 

Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun called the situation an emergency. The cities of Daegu and Cheongdo have been designated special care zones.

 

Tehran responds to new cases

 

Iran is also struggling to contain the virus within its own borders. Authorities there announced 13 new cases as well as two deaths from the COVID-19 virus on Friday. 

 

An Iranian official, a district mayor in Tehran, was also confirmed positive for coronavirus on Saturday, according to state television. 

 

Most other cases are linked to the holy city of Qom, but people are infected in other cities too.

 

Lebanon also reported its first case — a 45-year-old woman who had recently traveled to Qom.

 

Authorities in Israel confirmed its first case — a passenger on the virus-stricken Diamond Princess cruise ship. The infected person had initially tested negative to the virus on arrival in Israel.

 

Economic hit for China

 

Speaking with DW, President of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China Jörg Wuttke warned of short- and long-term effects the virus will likely have on the Chinese economy.

 

Supply chain disruption could have greater effects than those seen after the 2002-2003 SARS outbreak, he said.

 

"The economy is going to take a major hit in the first quarter...Transportation is 80% down. Hotels and restaurants are all closed...there is not much activity if any at all. Manufacturing is partially coming back...but the first quarter is basically gone." 

 

Nevertheless, he was optimistic that international investors would retain interest in the country.

 

"China is the place to be. There is no second China," he said.

 

Meanwhile, Hubei provincial government said that the coronavirus incubation period could be as long as 27 days. A 70-year-old man in the province was infected with the virus but did not show symptoms until 27 days later, meaning that the virus' incubation period could be much longer than the presumed 14 days. 

 

The man, only identified by his family name, Jiang, on January 24 drove his car back to a city in northwestern Hubei from eastern Ezhou, where he was visiting his sister, who had been infected, according to the Hubei government website. He had a fever on February 20 and tested positive for coronavirus a day later, the statement said.

 

A longer incubation period could complicate efforts to contain the spread of the epidemic.

 

School shuts in Japan

 

Japan confirmed four new coronavirus infections on Saturday, as a high school where an infected person taught was closed for two days. The teacher, a woman in her 60s in Chiba prefecture, went to work while showing symptoms. She first showed symptoms on February 12 and was hospitalized on February 19, according to local media. Her school is set to close for two days from February 25.

 

The second case was a woman in her 30s in the same prefecture, who has been hospitalized but is not showing any symptoms, according to a Chiba government official.

 

The additional two cases are a man in his 60s and another man in his 50s in Kumamoto prefecture in southern Japan. Ninety-nine people in Japan have so far tested positive for coronavirus.

 

https://www.dw.com/e...d-19/a-52467865


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#272 Der Zeitgeist

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Posted 23 February 2020 - 0216 AM

With the recent developments firmly putting COVID-19 into a global category, I made a new thread to discuss this here:

 

http://www.tank-net....showtopic=44455


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