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Taiwan Tries Again For F-16's


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#21 Josh

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Posted 22 August 2019 - 0114 AM

If youre m wrong, its TDS.

If Im right, what will you call it?

Edited by Josh, 22 August 2019 - 0115 AM.

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#22 Mr King

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Posted 22 August 2019 - 0327 AM

If youre m wrong, its TDS.

If Im right, what will you call it?

 

Dude did you even read what you posted? I don't care that you irrationally dislike Trump, I am the same way with Obama. Just own up to it. 

 

 God's gift to evangelicals is the king of backtracking

 


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#23 Panzermann

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Posted 22 August 2019 - 0518 AM

 

If youre m wrong, its TDS.

If Im right, what will you call it?

 

Dude did you even read what you posted? I don't care that you irrationally dislike Trump, I am the same way with Obama. Just own up to it. 

 

 God's gift to evangelicals is the king of backtracking

 

 

 

You do not need "trump derangement syndrome" to dislike Trump. 

 

 

 

 

BTT

 

 

The F-16CD block 70 would certainly add some big capabilities to the republican chinese air force. And be more sustainable than the F-5. which can be considered vintage or classic by now. Though in the grander scheme of things the PLAAF will still just overwhelm them if they wanted to. And probably destroy most planes on the ground anyway.


Edited by Panzermann, 22 August 2019 - 0524 AM.

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#24 Yama

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Posted 22 August 2019 - 0851 AM

Don't go wobbly, Donald...


Recent history shows that if someone's going to go wobbly, it's Taiwanese themselves. But I have hopes this time they'll mean it.

Lockheed Martin advertises the Block 70 as having a structural life 50% greater than previous variants. Not sure if that includes Block 60 or not.


As many warplanes have ended up staying in service far beyond their originally designed lifespan (F-15C was designed for 4000 hours IIRC, now they're pushing 10000) it has become fashionable for manufacturers to present much extended service lives, Boeing is now offering 20k hours for latest F-15 variants. Whether it actually proves useful with new technological paradigms coming up, remains to be seen.
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#25 Daan

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Posted 22 August 2019 - 1217 PM

Not so sure about the PRC being able to destroy most or all ROCAF fighter aircraft on the ground. In all fighter airbases on the East coast, the aircraft are stored in artificial mountain caves, while all airbases on the West coast possess extensive HAS systems. No fighter plane is left standing in the open. 

https://www.scramble...taiwan/airforce

 

Of course, all run- and taxiways are exposed and getting the planes in the air after a cruise and ballistic missile barrage may pose quite a challenge. Naturally this all depends on the extent of the damage, additional attack waves, UXO and the capability of the rapid runway repair crews on these bases.


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#26 Calvinb1nav

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Posted 22 August 2019 - 1912 PM

Not so sure about the PRC being able to destroy most or all ROCAF fighter aircraft on the ground. In all fighter airbases on the East coast, the aircraft are stored in artificial mountain caves, while all airbases on the West coast possess extensive HAS systems. No fighter plane is left standing in the open. 

https://www.scramble...taiwan/airforce

 

Of course, all run- and taxiways are exposed and getting the planes in the air after a cruise and ballistic missile barrage may pose quite a challenge. Naturally this all depends on the extent of the damage, additional attack waves, UXO and the capability of the rapid runway repair crews on these bases.

 

Based on my interactions with a Taiwanese F-16 pilot I attended the Korean AF Staff College with, I have some doubts as to Taiwan's willingness to fight.  Admittedly that was a sample of one but still...  If the PRC did an all out missile barrage on Taiwan followed up by a quickly emplaced naval blockade, it wouldn't surprised me if the Taiwanese threw in the towel before we could get there.


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#27 JasonJ

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Posted 22 August 2019 - 2318 PM

Not so sure about the PRC being able to destroy most or all ROCAF fighter aircraft on the ground. In all fighter airbases on the East coast, the aircraft are stored in artificial mountain caves, while all airbases on the West coast possess extensive HAS systems. No fighter plane is left standing in the open. 
https://www.scramble...taiwan/airforce
 
Of course, all run- and taxiways are exposed and getting the planes in the air after a cruise and ballistic missile barrage may pose quite a challenge. Naturally this all depends on the extent of the damage, additional attack waves, UXO and the capability of the rapid runway repair crews on these bases.

 
Based on my interactions with a Taiwanese F-16 pilot I attended the Korean AF Staff College with, I have some doubts as to Taiwan's willingness to fight.  Admittedly that was a sample of one but still...  If the PRC did an all out missile barrage on Taiwan followed up by a quickly emplaced naval blockade, it wouldn't surprised me if the Taiwanese threw in the towel before we could get there.

Calvin, I would be curious as to when the interactions with that pilot occurred. If it was within the last 2 or so years, I find it quite unlikely to represent the whole of will power.If it was 5~10 years ago, then its easier to imagine. Tensions between China and other countries in general were quite low in the period running from early 2000s up until 2014, except Japan, tensions ran high in 2012 over the Senkaku islands and so sentiment between China and Japan remained low ever since. Tensions between China and Taiwan were very high in the mid 1990s because of Taiwan's first presidential election. But since then, China got the green light to join the WTO in 1999/2000 and fully ascended by 2002/2003ish. Like with many countries, Taiwan jumped on to make for good business environment. Two forms of thinking in the west were quite strong... "China would democratize if they get a solid middle class so lets do business!" and "poor China, Japan never apologized enough, Tojo, war crimes, PH2001movie, etc." So that was the meta at the time. A Pro-China Taiwanese president was elected in 2008, name is Ma, and reelected in 2012.

I think the moment it became clear that China wss not going to abondon being at geopolitic odds with the established norm of order in the Asia Pacific was when they started making islands in the South China Sea in 2014/2015. There were earlier indications that China was not going to go along with the norms such as the locking up of Liu Xiaobo in 2009 and the strike down and crack down by the CCP following the Charter 08 call. And then at more geopolitical actions was the PRC blocking Scarborough Shoal from Filipino access and the the PRC increasing water territorial intrusions at the Senkaku islands which triggered Japanese nationalization of them which then triggered far more frequent water territory intrusions, both happening in 2012. But it was the South China Sea island making in 2014/2015 that really put the spotlight on China that really shows China is up to no good. also in 2014 was the very large HK umbrella demonstrations, likely adding to the sense that the CCP isn't going to change from tight undemocratic control. Also, in 2015, China broadcasted a video of their military training at capturing a mock city that looked just like Taiwan's presidential and surrounding buildings. So in the Taiwan 2016 presidential election, Tsai won the election on yhe basis of harder sentiments twords China and on a stronger feeling of being Taiwanese and for democracy since unification with China would obviously mean the end of its democratic processes and a greater will to fight on the raise. So yeah, I'd be curious as to which phase your described interactions with the pilot took place.

One other thing that probably should be considered is that a point about the % of GDP the defense budget gets. During the 1990s, it was between 3~4%. During president Ma's first term, it fell to around 2.0%. But during his second term, it started to raise again. And under Tsai, it still raising. However Taiwan is small. 2.0% of GDP is essentially about only 11 Billion USD. 3.0% of GDP makes it about 15 billion USD. In all honestly, there's no way that Taiwan can scale up and hope to match vs the PRC. Of course willingness to fight still matters a lot and would make a difference on the ground but only if augmented with international power. But alone, the will power wouldn't be enough.

As for a quick BM barrage followed by a quick naval blockade by the PRC, I don't think Japan would allow it. The SDF positions on the southern Nansei islands would help keep an open route by sea to Taiwan since the anti-ship missiles there will have the range to reach the coast of Taiwan. If the PRC ever gets ready to launch an amphibious assualt across the strait, that force build up should be detectable and provide enough time for going high alert among US and Japanese forces.

Edited by JasonJ, 23 August 2019 - 0056 AM.

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#28 Nobu

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Posted 23 August 2019 - 0946 AM

If youre m wrong, its TDS.

If Im right, what will you call it?

 

Something along the lines of the Knight-Ridder DC Bureau reporters who correctly called the run-up to Iraq into question, while most of the national press was paying lip service to the Bush Administration's portrayal of it.


Edited by Nobu, 23 August 2019 - 0953 AM.

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#29 Nobu

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Posted 23 August 2019 - 1003 AM

Based on my interactions with a Taiwanese F-16 pilot I attended the Korean AF Staff College with, I have some doubts as to Taiwan's willingness to fight.

 

The ROCN apparently spent tens of millions of dollars in 2017 to extend the service life of an improved WW2 Gato-class submarine to 2026. Considering the seaborne nature of the supposedly existential peril they face, this does not exactly inspire confidence in how seriously the Republic of Chinese are about fighting it.


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#30 JasonJ

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Posted 23 August 2019 - 1022 AM

 

Based on my interactions with a Taiwanese F-16 pilot I attended the Korean AF Staff College with, I have some doubts as to Taiwan's willingness to fight.

 

The ROCN apparently spent tens of millions of dollars in 2017 to extend the service life of an improved WW2 Gato-class submarine to 2026. Considering the seaborne nature of the supposedly existential peril they face, this does not exactly inspire confidence in how seriously the Republic of Chinese are about fighting it.

 

 

It'll maintain the basic level of personnel qualification in submarine use until the new submarines are delivered. They plan on making 8 SSKs. The first one planned to be deployed in 2026.

Spoiler

https://thediplomat....tack-submarine/

http://www.tank-net....ic=41869&page=1


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#31 Nobu

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Posted 23 August 2019 - 1135 AM

And be more sustainable than the F-5. which can be considered vintage or classic by now. 

 

They could also be considered indicators of how seriously the Republic of Chinese actually are about fighting.

 

Contrast this with the Israelis, who can be accused of many things, but never of being unwilling to fight their own battles. 


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#32 Markus Becker

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Posted 23 August 2019 - 1215 PM


Based on my interactions with a Taiwanese F-16 pilot I attended the Korean AF Staff College with, I have some doubts as to Taiwan's willingness to fight.

 
The ROCN apparently spent tens of millions of dollars in 2017 to extend the service life of an improved WW2 Gato-class submarine to 2026. Considering the seaborne nature of the supposedly existential peril they face, this does not exactly inspire confidence in how seriously the Republic of Chinese are about fighting it.

IMO it is a sign of their inability to buy modern subs. Sellers are bowing to PRC pressure.
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#33 Markus Becker

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Posted 23 August 2019 - 1240 PM

And if the much knowing Wikipedia is right most of the F-5 were already in reserve ten years ago.
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#34 Mr King

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Posted 23 August 2019 - 1424 PM

Frankly outside of nukes, it doesn't matter what we arm the Taiwanese with. The only real thing that stays China's hand is their belief in the willingness of US presidential administrations to respond with force to aggression against Taiwan. So Taiwan's future as a sovereign nation looks bleak. 


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#35 sunday

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Posted 23 August 2019 - 1429 PM

Frankly outside of nukes, it doesn't matter what we arm the Taiwanese with. The only real thing that stays China's hand is their belief in the willingness of US presidential administrations to respond with force to aggression against Taiwan. So Taiwan's future as a sovereign nation looks bleak. 

 

Taiwan has to get nukes.


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#36 urbanoid

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Posted 23 August 2019 - 1441 PM

They would have them if it wasn't for US pressure.


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#37 Markus Becker

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Posted 23 August 2019 - 1505 PM

So Taiwan's future as a sovereign nation looks bleak. 


Their and the PRC's economy are very closely connected. And the growth of that economy is what keeps the Communist party in power.

Taiwan buying some armaments won't start a war.
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#38 sunday

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Posted 23 August 2019 - 1533 PM

They would have them if it wasn't for US pressure.

 

Taiwan's mistake for submitting to pressure. North Korea did not.


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#39 Nobu

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Posted 23 August 2019 - 1542 PM

The lack of urgency on the part of the Republic of Chinese in developing domestic weapons systems for national self defense is thunderous in various ways.

 

Almost as if their true assessment of their situation was different from the assessment being paid lip service to in order to maintain the obligation of others to do their fighting for them.

 

Taiwan's mistake for submitting to pressure. North Korea did not.

 

Neither did Israel.

 

The Israelis can be blamed for many things, but not taking their own defense seriously from an existential standpoint is not one of them.

 

The contrast between this level of seriousness and that of the Republic of Chinese is stark.


Edited by Nobu, 23 August 2019 - 1547 PM.

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#40 urbanoid

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Posted 23 August 2019 - 1542 PM

Pyongyang didn't and still doesn't give a flying fuck about the suffering of their citizens. The government will feed itself, after all. The Taiwanese were sold once already.


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