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Covid-19 Pandemic

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#1 Der Zeitgeist

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Posted 23 February 2020 - 0215 AM

With the new clusters popping up that are no longer clearly linked to recent travels, and the enaction of social distancing policies in northern Italy, I think it's finally time to move this topic out of "Because China" and start a dedicated thread.

 

For starters, here are a few interesting Twitter threads about what to expect in the coming days and weeks:

 

https://twitter.com/...193492002611200

 

https://twitter.com/...363420907343873

 

https://twitter.com/...270744895762438


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#2 JasonJ

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Posted 23 February 2020 - 0239 AM

Good idea.
For old referencing, the first post about it in the China thread linked below:
http://www.tank-net....=5#entry1464845
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#3 JasonJ

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Posted 23 February 2020 - 0254 AM

Currently at 19 deaths outside of China. 5 from ROK and 5 from Iran. 2 from the cruise ship quarantined ship in Japan with 1 from Japan itself, 2 from HK, 1 from the Philippines, France, Taiwan, and Italy each.

Deaths in China at 2,442.

Edited by JasonJ, 23 February 2020 - 0257 AM.

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#4 JasonJ

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Posted 23 February 2020 - 0311 AM

ROK cases have surged, now at 556. It was only 51 last week on Wednesday (4 days ago).
Spoiler
http://m.koreaherald...=20200223000229
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#5 BansheeOne

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Posted 23 February 2020 - 0434 AM

In fact I think a friendly admin (Iä, iä etc.) should move the whole shebang here from the China thread. The last nine pages there are about nothing else.

 

Italy looks like it's about to go hot:

 

Date 23.02.2020

 

Coronavirus: Italy towns in lockdown, South Korea declares highest alert

 

Several Italian towns have taken urgent measures to stop the virus from spreading following the deaths of two people and 80 confirmed infections. South Korea is also taking "unprecedented" steps after a spike in cases.

 

The Italian government on Saturday said it was considering "extraordinary measures" to fight the coronavirus following the deaths of two citizens. 

 

The outbreak has also caused Italian authorities to place several towns on lockdown amid an increase in the number of cases to almost 80, as well as the two deaths reported on Friday and Saturday.

 

The death of a 75-year-old woman on Saturday near the small town of Codogno in Lombardy came just a day after a 78-year-old man succumbed to the virus in the neighboring region of Veneto, marking the first deaths in Italy.

 

Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte expressed his sympathies for the two who passed away and said he had called an emergency meeting, as more than 50,000 people from about a dozen towns in two northern regions were asked to stay at home by authorities.

 

Growing cluster of cases

 

The cluster was located in a handful of small towns in the Lombardy region, according to the head of regional health, Giulio Gallera.

 

The first to fall ill from the virus was a 38-year-old Italian who met with someone who had returned from China on January 21, health authorities confirmed.

 

The 38-year-old is now hospitalized and in critical condition. His wife and a friend of his have also tested positive for the coronavirus.

 

Tests were being administered on the 38-year-old's doctor, who paid him a home visit, as well as on 120 people he worked with at the research and development branch of Unilever in the town of Casalpusterlengo, Gallera said.

 

Three patients at the hospital in Codogno, where he went with flu-like symptoms earlier this week, have also been infected, as have five nurses and doctors.

 

Scare reaches Milan Fashion Week

 

A dozen towns in northern Italy are now effectively in lockdown after a growing cluster of cases were reported with no direct links to the origin of the outbreak abroad. Streets were deserted, along with signs announcing the closure of public buildings.

 

Italian designer Giorgio Armani announced early Sunday that, due to the health risk, his fashion house would hold its Milan Fashion Week runway show behind closed doors. 

 

Eight more shows are scheduled for Sunday, though it was unclear if all would be held as planned.

 

[...]

 

Russia, meanwhile, denied all allegations that it is spreading false information on social media that the US started the coronavirus outbreak. 

US officials said thousands of profiles on Facebook, Instagram and Twitter were spreading the theory.

 

"This is a deliberately false story," foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova told Russian news agency Tass.

 

https://www.dw.com/e...lert/a-52477823

 

On the last bit, Ukraine has claimed that Russian disinformation lead to riots outside a local quarantine facility. Of course I think it has at least as much to do with the last line in the report below.

 

Date 21.02.2020

 

Coronavirus: Riots erupt in Ukraine as China evacuees enter quarantine

 

Residents of a town that will house evacuees from Wuhan clashed with police amid fears of a coronavirus spread. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has assured locals that the evacuees present no danger to the community.

 

A central Ukrainian town was the scene of clashes on Thursday as outraged residents protested against the arrival of evacuees from China, who were set to be quarantined for the coronavirus.

 

Some 45 Ukrainians and 27 foreign nationals were evacuated from the Chinese city of Wuhan, the epicenter of the COVID-19 outbreak, and brought to a sanatorium in the town of Novi Sanzhary, east of Kyiv, for a two-week quarantine period.

 

So far, no confirmed cases of the virus have been registered in Ukraine. But fears of a possible spread of the virus drove locals to confront the convoy of buses that were transporting the evacuees.

 

'Shame on you'

 

In a daylong standoff, residents clashed with authorities, burned tires, attempted to block a bridge and hurled projectiles at the buses. Two of the vehicles' windows were smashed while the evacuees were inside. Protesters shouted "shame on you" at hundreds of helmeted police that had been deployed to maintain order.

 

"Isn't there any other place in Ukraine that can host 50 people, that is located in more or less remote villages or in far off areas where there is no threat to population?" resident Yuriy Dzyubenko was quoted by Reuters as saying.

 

Despite the riots, the evacuees were successfully brought to the clinic, which was promptly sealed off by police.

 

Health minister to be quarantined

 

In a show of solidarity with the evacuees, Ukraine's health minister announced she will join the quarantine.

 

"I will spend the next 14 days with them, in the same premises, under the same conditions," Health Minister Zoryana Skaletska said late Thursday in a statement addressed to the residents of Novi Sanzhary.

 

"These people are our compatriots," she wrote on Facebook. "We live in one country and have to take care of their health and safety." She added that she was "shaken" by the widespread panic and aggression.

 

[...]

 

Ukrainians are deeply mistrustful of their government, as the country is plagued by corruption and has a weak healthcare system. The country has also struggled with a measles epidemic, amid reluctance by some to vaccinate themselves and their children.

 

https://www.dw.com/e...tine/a-52455287


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#6 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 23 February 2020 - 0801 AM

Its appropriate, from what they say on CNN, it seems to be going cold in China at last. I guess being an authoritarian state can be quite useful sometimes after all.


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#7 Ivanhoe

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Posted 23 February 2020 - 1050 AM

One thing I haven't seen discussed online, yet, is what are the common factors amongst mortality cases and survivors. I know its early in the game, but with citizens/residents of western nations, I am hoping the WHO etc. are reviewing the heck out of medical records.


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#8 Der Zeitgeist

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Posted 23 February 2020 - 1111 AM

There's a few papers with statistics from the Chinese cases which show a correlation of mortal outcomes with age and pre-existing cardiovascular and respiratory conditions, as could be expected. Of course, as these are Chinese statistics, the picture is probably incomplete and not necessarily comparable with how it will play out in western countries. 


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#9 Stargrunt6

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Posted 23 February 2020 - 1121 AM

Its appropriate, from what they say on CNN, it seems to be going cold in China at last. I guess being an authoritarian state can be quite useful sometimes after all.

Broken clocks and all. They should not have hidden their numbers though.

But yeah, nothing like a sorta-command economy when you need a bunch of hospitals built overnight and medical staff to be transferred.

Some studies.

This one may imply that the virus is more fatal in asians due to receptor polymorphisms.

https://www.biorxiv.....01.26.919985v1

... also more lethal in men than women:

https://www.cnbc.com...y-suggests.html

Overview of the virus for the geek inclined:

https://www.ncbi.nlm...les/PMC4369385/

"Another decade another coronavirus:"
https://www.nejm.org...t=cr_pub=pubmed

Edited by Stargrunt6, 23 February 2020 - 1138 AM.

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#10 Nobu

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Posted 23 February 2020 - 1315 PM

Interesting regarding its possible higher lethality in Asians, which is something that a family member commented on the other day as a speculative observation.


Edited by Nobu, 23 February 2020 - 1317 PM.

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#11 RETAC21

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Posted 23 February 2020 - 1514 PM

You think China was bad, well, the Italians are going to show you BAD:

 

https://www.bbc.com/...europe-51602007


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#12 Der Zeitgeist

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Posted 23 February 2020 - 1539 PM

Yes, it's moving pretty fast now. Austria just cut its train traffic with Italy across the Brenner. Apparently, there were passengers with suspicious fever symptoms on a EuroCity train from Venice to Munich.

 

nSIcHdg.jpg


Edited by Der Zeitgeist, 23 February 2020 - 1543 PM.

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#13 Burncycle360

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Posted 23 February 2020 - 1828 PM

Is this going to disproportionately affect the young and healthy like the spanish flu?  The doctor didn't seem that old.


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#14 lucklucky

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Posted 23 February 2020 - 1920 PM

It seems to not hit children, which is strange.


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#15 Der Zeitgeist

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Posted 24 February 2020 - 0154 AM

The real test case for European countries will be the upcoming carnival festivities. Lots of exchanges of various bodily fluids there...

 

20100211-as-karneval40-jpg.jpg

 

Meanwhile, Iran is getting hit pretty hard:

SuKa3Jr.jpg


Edited by Der Zeitgeist, 24 February 2020 - 0413 AM.

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#16 DB

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Posted 24 February 2020 - 0557 AM

Non+authoritarian states can switch modes very quickly if they feel threatened. The advantage they have is that the messenger rarely gets actually shot.
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#17 Mobius

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Posted 24 February 2020 - 0829 AM

I've been avoiding crowds.  Also, sold a bunch of my stocks last week.  Today the markets might be down a lot.


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#18 Der Zeitgeist

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Posted 24 February 2020 - 0845 AM

I'm stocking up on some essential medicine, including a prescription drug I need to take regularly. In a few days, there might be a lot of patients at the doctor's office and at pharmacies you might not want to hang around too closely.


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#19 rmgill

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Posted 24 February 2020 - 0914 AM

Its appropriate, from what they say on CNN, it seems to be going cold in China at last. I guess being an authoritarian state can be quite useful sometimes after all.

That presumes that an Authoritarian state will do anything remotely effectively in the early to middle stages of the 'response'.  Anyone walking around collecting the sick while wearing a 'surgical mask' is not remotely protected from inhaling airborne virus particles. Even the Chinese PM addressing everyone wearing one of those masks is representative of ineffective. You want to be protected from small particles, you need at LEAST a P100 mask with a good face seal. 

3555ji8030131.jpg


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#20 Jeff

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Posted 24 February 2020 - 1108 AM

See, it's not a pandemic, it's a PHEIC (public health emergency of international concern). I feel much better now.

 

WHO says it no longer uses 'pandemic' category, but virus still emergency


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