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Protests In Hong Kong


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#481 Tim the Tank Nut

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 0811 AM

I am assuming that any difficulties for China improves Japan's position comparatively?

 

by now Japan would be entirely correct to be concerned with the security framework in the Far East.  Taking China down a peg or two would make sense.  Losing the income of Hong Kong would be felt in China.  Since China's economy is probably weaker than people realize losing Honk Kong could be the pebble that starts an avalanche.


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#482 glenn239

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 1110 AM

I think that might be what Nobu is suggesting, but I didn't see how 1.5 billion people on their doorstep going more militaristic is within Japan's interests.  Has Nobu thought this thing through?  Does he not understand what would happen to Japan if its SLOC were severed in a major war?  Or, maybe Nobu just wants to be entertained in bloodsport?   Japan's interests to me are obviously and quite strongly that the protests will die down, the PLA will not occupy the city, and Hong Kong will continue with its special status.


Edited by glenn239, 19 September 2019 - 1111 AM.

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#483 Nobu

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 1217 PM

A political position that keeps Japan and Japanese above the Chinese eggshells of political and ethnic unity does not represent an aversion to seeing them broken.

 

Not staying above them was a lesson in political positioning to be learned from the last century, in which the opportunities gleaned from the crushing of them went unrealized. They will go to those best placed to pick up the pieces.

 

Enter Japan.


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#484 Chris Werb

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 1609 PM

Given demographic and economic forces vs quality of leadership in both countries, I wouldn't want to bet on China disintegrating before the United States does. 


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#485 Josh

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Posted 19 September 2019 - 1640 PM

I think China will have a hard time navigating a post Xi government sometime in the future. I suspect the US will muddle through until then. After that Im not taking bets.
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#486 glenn239

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Posted 20 September 2019 - 0955 AM

A political position that keeps Japan and Japanese above the Chinese eggshells of political and ethnic unity does not represent an aversion to seeing them broken.

 

Not staying above them was a lesson in political positioning to be learned from the last century, in which the opportunities gleaned from the crushing of them went unrealized. They will go to those best placed to pick up the pieces.

 

Enter Japan.

 

Japan's sea lines of communication are too brittle to test.  They discovered this in 1944/45 and things have only gotten much worse sinse.  Japan has no interest in seeing a country 10 times its size and on its doorstep go militaristic.  Therefore, I think Japan's only interest in Hong Kong is that the protestors do not bring the roof down on their heads.  Japan must adhere to the theory that a rich China will eventually liberalize, it's just going to take another generation.


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#487 JasonJ

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Posted 20 September 2019 - 1016 AM

A funny trolling bit was posted on September 4th on a tiny (no seats in the diet) Japanese political party's website which said that Agnes Chow said that "Hong Kong can continue the fight if the US, UK, and Japan send troops" and "Send the JSDF to protect Hong Kong's freedom". Agnes Chow said that she didn't say that although PRC media reported that she did. Agnes Chow requested that Japanese political party to remove that bit from their website, so they did. Article is dated September 7th.

Spoiler
https://www.sankei.c...9070021-n1.html


Edited by JasonJ, 20 September 2019 - 1017 AM.

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#488 Nobu

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Posted 20 September 2019 - 1322 PM

I think China will have a hard time navigating a post Xi government sometime in the future.

 

What is unfortunate is dealing with the stabilizing effect of Xi on their nation in the meantime.

 

What is frustrating is millions of Hongkongese in their cool black tees being unable to get past this 5'2" middle-aged British civil servant mother, who continues to stand in the way of them doing something more tangible about it.


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#489 Tim the Tank Nut

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Posted 20 September 2019 - 1335 PM

okay Nobu

playtime is over

 

Be specific about what you want the Hong Kong protestors to do.

You've been beating around the bush since this all started.  Go on record and say it.

As far as the middle aged civil servant goes, she has access to weapons and that makes a difference


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#490 Nobu

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Posted 20 September 2019 - 1500 PM

Force Xi to make the decisions he clearly would prefer not to, starting with a declaration of martial law upon the Hongkongese that will hurt China's political and economic standing in the world relative to Japan's in the long term.

 

If this requires greater Chinese on Chinese social and physical violence, so be it.

 

It will also make the chances of a potential Chinese boycott of Japan's Olympic games less likely on political grounds in the medium term.


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#491 Tim the Tank Nut

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Posted 20 September 2019 - 1644 PM

the protestors would be extremely vulnerable to Chinese security forces at that point.

I can appreciate the "realpolitik" of it but it seems like the Hong Kong protestors would be getting butchered to further Japan's advancement against China.

 

Can we not gain a similar result by Japanese diplomacy on behalf of the protestors without the bloodshed?

Either way, Xi has put himself in a corner by becoming Emperor for Life.  There's no shifting the blame elsewhere.  Japan could come to a full defense of President Trump's China tariffs and make a diplomatic issue of the rampant Chinese theft of intellectual property.

If you want to bring China to its knees (and EVERYONE should) then the win comes from economic strangulation.  Chinese markets are desperately dependent on exports and those exports can be pressured.  Japanese diplomacy in Europe would be valuable along those lines.


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#492 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 21 September 2019 - 0147 AM

President Trump could also issue a statement on behalf of the protesters. He hasnt, we havent either. And if there is bloodshed on a large scale, that may be regarded as a fatal mistake.

 

If they DO massacre protesters, we need to shut down on all Chinese imports. Both for the good of our economy, and also to make them realise we dont reward mass murder. Which unfortunately, as a rule, we usually do. So, ive no confidence this will be the case.


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#493 JasonJ

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Posted 21 September 2019 - 0455 AM

He sort of did. It was something like "Xi should meet with the protestors".

The protest leaders and many others want to keep the demnstrations going up to October 1st and are trying the gather international support. The PRC was founded on Oct 1st, 1949, so the 70th anniversary. But they are not just wanting to push the demonstrations until that date but are pushing still for achieving genuine democracy among other 5 demands. But some people in HK are just plain exhausted so the numbers might not remain as high as it has been. So its to be seen. If the demonstrations maintain strength, I'd imaginethe PRC won't order a full thorough crackdown until some time after October 1st. But yeah, if they do, it really should be the breaker.

Edited by JasonJ, 21 September 2019 - 0457 AM.

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#494 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 21 September 2019 - 0528 AM

He sort of did. It was something like "Xi should meet with the protestors".

The protest leaders and many others want to keep the demnstrations going up to October 1st and are trying the gather international support. The PRC was founded on Oct 1st, 1949, so the 70th anniversary. But they are not just wanting to push the demonstrations until that date but are pushing still for achieving genuine democracy among other 5 demands. But some people in HK are just plain exhausted so the numbers might not remain as high as it has been. So its to be seen. If the demonstrations maintain strength, I'd imaginethe PRC won't order a full thorough crackdown until some time after October 1st. But yeah, if they do, it really should be the breaker.

Thats pretty weak. Its not exactly Kennedy's Berlin wall address is it? And thats whats needed at this point, particularly as China is figuring out whether the west is a complete pushover or not.


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#495 JasonJ

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Posted 21 September 2019 - 0559 AM

 

He sort of did. It was something like "Xi should meet with the protestors".
The protest leaders and many others want to keep the demnstrations going up to October 1st and are trying the gather international support. The PRC was founded on Oct 1st, 1949, so the 70th anniversary. But they are not just wanting to push the demonstrations until that date but are pushing still for achieving genuine democracy among other 5 demands. But some people in HK are just plain exhausted so the numbers might not remain as high as it has been. So its to be seen. If the demonstrations maintain strength, I'd imaginethe PRC won't order a full thorough crackdown until some time after October 1st. But yeah, if they do, it really should be the breaker.

Thats pretty weak. Its not exactly Kennedy's Berlin wall address is it? And thats whats needed at this point, particularly as China is figuring out whether the west is a complete pushover or not.

I think it doesn't happen not because of Trump as one person not living up to expected ideals. I think its because China is integrated with yhe world economy. A drastic cut would hurt us too and even if it hurts them, they have high pain toleration but democratically elected leaders do not. Trade relations need to be reduced in coasting way rather than hard break Probably. Businesses need time to adjust. Industries outside of China like rare earths need to be up and running. If Trump delivered more inspiring remarks without any of this ground work in place first and in coordination with other countries, then its just empty words that China can easily falsify.


Edited by JasonJ, 21 September 2019 - 0612 AM.

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#496 glenn239

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Posted 21 September 2019 - 0738 AM

Force Xi to make the decisions he clearly would prefer not to, starting with a declaration of martial law upon the Hongkongese that will hurt China's political and economic standing in the world relative to Japan's in the long term.

 

 

Why will martial law in Hong Kong hurt China's political and economic standing in the world relative to Japan in the long term?


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#497 glenn239

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Posted 21 September 2019 - 0749 AM

President Trump could also issue a statement on behalf of the protesters. He hasnt, we havent either. And if there is bloodshed on a large scale, that may be regarded as a fatal mistake.

 

If they DO massacre protesters, we need to shut down on all Chinese imports. Both for the good of our economy, and also to make them realise we dont reward mass murder. Which unfortunately, as a rule, we usually do. So, ive no confidence this will be the case.

 

On social media the Area 51 raid was going to be massive.  When it came time for all the social media warriors to put their money where their mouths are and show up on the ground, 99.9% of them proved to be talkers and didn't arrive.  What a debacle.

 

Global support for Hong Kong is the same thing.  Nobu will talk the talk from a distance, but never actually go to Hong Kong to help.  As the great Gerad Way once said, everybody wants to change the world, but no one wants to die. So the Chinese don't need to massacre anyone, because its all a bunch of talk signifying nothing.  Just arrest the leaders, deport them to the mainland and start dishing out the prison sentences.  They'd prefer not to do that because the protestors are losing ground even in Hong Kong.  (The protests are economically disruptive and politically useless, and the protestors are young and rich, so will have the usual leftist revolutionary motives lurking in the background).


Edited by glenn239, 21 September 2019 - 0758 AM.

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#498 glenn239

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Posted 21 September 2019 - 0757 AM

 

 

He sort of did. It was something like "Xi should meet with the protestors".
The protest leaders and many others want to keep the demnstrations going up to October 1st and are trying the gather international support. The PRC was founded on Oct 1st, 1949, so the 70th anniversary. But they are not just wanting to push the demonstrations until that date but are pushing still for achieving genuine democracy among other 5 demands. But some people in HK are just plain exhausted so the numbers might not remain as high as it has been. So its to be seen. If the demonstrations maintain strength, I'd imaginethe PRC won't order a full thorough crackdown until some time after October 1st. But yeah, if they do, it really should be the breaker.

Thats pretty weak. Its not exactly Kennedy's Berlin wall address is it? And thats whats needed at this point, particularly as China is figuring out whether the west is a complete pushover or not.

I think it doesn't happen not because of Trump as one person not living up to expected ideals. I think its because China is integrated with yhe world economy. A drastic cut would hurt us too and even if it hurts them, they have high pain toleration but democratically elected leaders do not. Trade relations need to be reduced in coasting way rather than hard break Probably. Businesses need time to adjust. Industries outside of China like rare earths need to be up and running. If Trump delivered more inspiring remarks without any of this ground work in place first and in coordination with other countries, then its just empty words that China can easily falsify.

 

 

The other point to keep in mind is that if the West really did attempt to embargo the Chinese economy, the Chinese would go militaristic and their military GDP would rise to 25% or 30% of their GDP, and after about 5 years they would be ready for a war on a scale never seen before, and on every continent.  We should not mistake the Chinese military buildup as a merchantile nation as indicative of what a Chinese military buildup would look like if they went all out on the military front.


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#499 Jeff

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Posted 21 September 2019 - 0904 AM

Force Xi to make the decisions he clearly would prefer not to, starting with a declaration of martial law upon the Hongkongese that will hurt China's political and economic standing in the world relative to Japan's in the long term.

 

If this requires greater Chinese on Chinese social and physical violence, so be it.

 

It will also make the chances of a potential Chinese boycott of Japan's Olympic games less likely on political grounds in the medium term.

 

So the more Tiananmen Square massacres the better?


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#500 JasonJ

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Posted 21 September 2019 - 1005 AM

Don't mind me, just sticking in an update.

 

Another march today, this one at Tuen Mun Park

Spoiler
https://asia.nikkei....s-at-protesters

Among the usual sort of stuff, "dai mas" or mainland women, often middle-aged, making scenes and making disruptions and attracting viewers, often old guys, at parks and such and getting money.

Spoiler
https://www.hongkong...s-pepper-spray/

 

Various footage of the march and demonstrations.


 

Flag burning

flagburning.jpg

http://www.orangenew...010126987.shtml

 

Extinguishing.

flagburningextinguish.jpg

https://www.litenews...


Edited by JasonJ, 21 September 2019 - 1006 AM.

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