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#1041 Panzermann

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Posted 26 September 2018 - 0934 AM

Of course this is done to rub it into the US nose. Next step is a coast guard cruiser visiting?

 

Yep. Pax China.

 

pax seres


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#1042 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 26 September 2018 - 0949 AM

Yep, then before you know it, it will be Chinese Supercarriers off New York, and the Democrats will be blaming Trump for not invading Venezuela. Call it the Eisenhower factor at work. :)


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#1043 Cinaruco

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Posted 26 September 2018 - 1605 PM

Yep, then before you know it, it will be Chinese Supercarriers off New York, and the Democrats will be blaming Trump for not invading Venezuela. Call it the Eisenhower factor at work. :)

Or you can have Midway, Chinese Edition.


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#1044 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 27 September 2018 - 0232 AM

If you remember what happened in 1962, I dont see as there being any more Midways myself.


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#1045 Chris Werb

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Posted 28 September 2018 - 1432 PM

 

Yep, then before you know it, it will be Chinese Supercarriers off New York, and the Democrats will be blaming Trump for not invading Venezuela. Call it the Eisenhower factor at work. :)

Or you can have Midway, Chinese Edition.

 

 

If the Chinese did Pearl Harbor 2 right, which I strongly suspect they would, there would be no Midway Chinese edition.


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#1046 Tim the Tank Nut

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Posted 28 September 2018 - 1525 PM

That is what the Japanese thought, too


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#1047 Josh

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Posted 28 September 2018 - 1641 PM

 

 

Yep, then before you know it, it will be Chinese Supercarriers off New York, and the Democrats will be blaming Trump for not invading Venezuela. Call it the Eisenhower factor at work. :)

Or you can have Midway, Chinese Edition.

 

 

If the Chinese did Pearl Harbor 2 right, which I strongly suspect they would, there would be no Midway Chinese edition.

 

 

What exactly prevents the US from dumping hundreds of cruise missiles on any of the three main PLAN fleet bases in that scenario? If necessary, from submarines or CONUS based bombers? Or any of the other non PACFLT units from responding?


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#1048 toysoldier

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Posted 28 September 2018 - 1646 PM

The Chinese will never be as pretentious as the Japanese... i hope. They'll just play this for leverage time and time again.


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#1049 rmgill

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Posted 28 September 2018 - 1704 PM

 

What exactly prevents the US from dumping hundreds of cruise missiles on any of the three main PLAN fleet bases in that scenario? If necessary, from submarines or CONUS based bombers? Or any of the other non PACFLT units from responding?

 

Having 1 or 2 of the SSGN Ohios spamming 100 or so TLAM Block IVs would be bad news. 


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#1050 JasonJ

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Posted 29 September 2018 - 0005 AM

The Chinese will never be as pretentious as the Japanese... i hope. They'll just play this for leverage time and time again.

 

I think it is unfair to link the second sentence with the first. AFAIK, China hasn't been presented with a case of pressure similar to what the US did towards Japan that lead to Japan to take such "pretentious" course of action by bombing Pearl Harbor. For an equivalent, the US would have to put an oil embargo on China, freeze Chinese economic assets in the US, and demand China to withdraw from all of Tibet and Xinjiang. Is the US going to do that? I doubt it. The most will be the CIA getting in Xinjiang to try start some trouble. But the CCP is probably already well prepared for such actions. Any under the radar activity by the CIA stands little hope to accomplish anything in CCP's China. Additionally, unlike Japan which was and is an island nation fully dependent on oil from overseas, China can alleviate any hypothetical oil embargo with land routes, its own oil production (bigger than most realize) and international support from countries like Russia Iran, etc. Also China has nuclear deterrent. So China has a lot more cards to keep itself from falling. Japan had and still has the same Achilles' heel, low natural resources, particularly oil.

 

For the second part, I agree that China will continue to use it as leverage. China may view it as going into the US's backyard as payback for the US conducting FONOPs in the South China Sea. But this case with Venezuela may not be limited to just tit-for-tat but may result in an increase of salami slicing of a long series of 2 steps forward, 1 step back. Some gain, a little withdraw to trick observers, and then more gain, and then a little withdraw to keep appeasers hopeful, and more gain again. This process is seen elsewhere such as the South China Sea, East China Sea, and North Korea (still in we'll see mode but has been the case for the past two decades). Of course this process isn't unique to China I'm sure. So then what's next for Venezuela? PLAN destroyer visit? PLAN sub visit? Negotiations for Dongfeng BMs? China has already had Venezuela participate in military shows together. Make Venezuela the new distraction for the US like North Korea has been. But this time with Venezuela, what allies does the US have in South America that can be used as leverage for the US? Colombia? Brazil? Not going to find an ROK Army or a JMSDF here.

 

Well that's the long term trajectory if PRC visits continue, far greater concern than just playing a simple leverage game I would think. Or so then maybe the PRC, 15 years from now, offer to withdraw from Venezuela if the US withdraws from the South China Sea or Taiwan, etc. Thus yet another geopolitical situation that japan has to give something for the sake of "US protects Japan for nothing in return" in order to keep the US involved and not make such an exchange of out of Venezuela/out of SCS with China.

 

For now it is just that, a little leverage. But as usual, the PRC is better at the long term game... The South China Sea thread is very indicative of that. X-Files had the foresight to start a thread about it back in 2011.


Edited by JasonJ, 29 September 2018 - 0006 AM.

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#1051 toysoldier

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Posted 29 September 2018 - 0046 AM

When you are right you are right. China isn't remotely as starved of resources as Japan was back then. We could Change pretentious to desperate.

Edited by toysoldier, 29 September 2018 - 0047 AM.

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#1052 Nobu

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Posted 29 September 2018 - 0047 AM

Obama basing his pivot to Asia on both the political fortitude of thirdworlders such as the Filipinos and North Vietnamese, and on a strategy that, stupidly, aligned Beijing and Taipei in an alliance of interests with regard to the Nationalist Chinese origin of their SCS claims, was dubious at best.

 

The upside, however, was that while everyone was piling on the Chinese in the SCS with an eye on removing them from the poker table of competing Vietnamese, Malaysian, Filipino SCS claims, Japan and Japanese rectified the dispute over Senkaku in its favor in September 2012.

 

I am hopeful China and Chinese overextend themselves beyond the range of their land-based airpower and ground forces. I am not optimistic based on their mode of operation these past 60 years of that happening, however.


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#1053 JasonJ

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Posted 29 September 2018 - 0119 AM

When you are right you are right. China isn't remotely as starved of resources as Japan was back then. We could Change pretentious to desperate.

 

Thanks for that regarding a contentious topic and I don't want to capitalize on receiving posts like this as I don't hold the US in a way that my tone could suggest when I make a post like that.


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#1054 Stuart Galbraith

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Posted 29 September 2018 - 0216 AM

15 years from now, Democrats will be decrying Trump for not invading, just as they once decried Eisenhower for not supporting Cuba, or Eisenhower decried Truman for losing China. Same as it ever was.


Edited by Stuart Galbraith, 29 September 2018 - 0216 AM.

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#1055 JasonJ

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Posted 29 September 2018 - 0225 AM

Obama basing his pivot to Asia on both the political fortitude of thirdworlders such as the Filipinos and North Vietnamese, and on a strategy that, stupidly, aligned Beijing and Taipei in an alliance of interests with regard to the Nationalist Chinese origin of their SCS claims, was dubious at best.

 

The upside, however, was that while everyone was piling on the Chinese in the SCS with an eye on removing them from the poker table of competing Vietnamese, Malaysian, Filipino SCS claims, Japan and Japanese rectified the dispute over Senkaku in its favor in September 2012.

 

I am hopeful China and Chinese overextend themselves beyond the range of their land-based airpower and ground forces. I am not optimistic based on their mode of operation these past 60 years of that happening, however.

 

Well... the SCS disputes didn't really start to heat up until after the nationalization of the Senkaku islands. The Chinese land reclamation work started in 2014 and the hearings at the UN tribunal court (or sometimes termed "the Kangaroo court") initiated by the Philippines started in 2015. So the SCS wasn't really serving as a distraction yet. The Senkaku islands heated up in 2010 and remained intense until early 2013 when the US foreign Minister Clinton finally gave Japan the backing in officially stating that they recognize them as part of Japan's administrative area and thus fall under the US-Japan alliance obligations. The US was initially taking a stance of "we have no view, let China and Japan work it out". Considering that Japan nationalized them in September 2012, there was about a 4 month period in which Japan didn't have backing from the US.  And now I'm going off topic to finish the thought.. but it could be asked that why should the US back Japan over Senkaku islands? Could that have been part of an escalation between the US and China that might have been avoidable. Shouldn't Japan instead not have nationalized them? Well, kind of like how I pointed out about the salami slicing of 2 steps forward, one step back process of going forward, this was evident with the Senkaku islands as well. Recording of Chinese boats entering Senkaku waters started in 2008. Two Chinese boats entered the territorial waters (12nm from the shoreline). As a result foreign minsters met, news reports, heated talks, and then a calm. Maybe just a one timer. And appeared so for 2 years. Next time would be 2010, but not in the territorial waters but in what is called the "Contiguous Zone" which is the next 12nm from the territoral water boundary. A number of Chinese boats went into this zone. In the 2008-2010 period Chinese entered neither zone. But in 2010, the Chinese boats were back, more frequently and in greater numbers but going only as far as entering the contiguous zone. But during this time in September was when there was the boat ramming by a Chinese boat against a Japanese Coast Guard Ship warning it to not enter territorial waters. Its all still pretty silly stuff at this stage, but the same build up seen else where takes place. Lots more media noise and minsters banter. Then no Chinese boat activity for a few months. But then in 2011, Chinese boats back in fewer numbers but in both the contiguous zone and in territorial waters. Would continue into 2012. 4 Chinese boats entered territorial waters in 2012 July. So then Japan nationalized them in September. By this point I think it was pretty clear that China wasn't going to stop poking with the Senkaku territorial waters. The number of Chinese boat activities jumped drastically as a response to the nationalization.

 

Here's a graph showing the number times Chinese boats came into Senkaku waters. Red is within the 12nm territorial waters. The blue is within the contiguous zone.

Senkakuintrusions.png

http://www.kaiho.mli...ku/senkaku.html

 

Looks like there has been a bit of a slow down relatively to the last few months but still much greater in comparison to before 2012.  And who knows when the two steps forward action will happen again. But it should be considered that in April 2018 was when the PLAN conducted its first exercise with its carrier going around Taiwan and out into the Pacific and in May when they had a larger than usual air force practice running through the Miyako strait and around Taiwan. So collectively speaking as a whole, it looks like increasing activity. So yeah, Americans really better keep an eye on Venezuela with this trend pattern in mind. In the second half of 2012, it was looking like the US might appease China and not back Japan on their decision to nationalize the senkaku islands.

 

 

On your last point, in some ways, China is going to want to increase its sphere of influence. As a big and raising country, it seems reasonable. But at the same time, I do not think it is reasonable for the surrounding countries to have to make way and accept it. I sort of wonder about the new tariffs that Trump is putting on China now. Between the tariffs, and other factors, it just might be enough for cool heads to be giving more of a say in China and to slow down. But things have progressed on this geopolitical contention and I think some inertia has developed. So even after a cooling course of action takes place, it'll take a few years for the inertia to run its course. I don't think enough time will be given for inertia to run its course but a continuing driven of energy.


Edited by JasonJ, 29 September 2018 - 0306 AM.

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#1056 toysoldier

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Posted 29 September 2018 - 0611 AM

In other words, it has happened so many times and for so long that you can make a graph out of it :blink: 


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#1057 JasonJ

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Posted 29 September 2018 - 0652 AM

Yes, media is generally rather quiet about it. The government is also rather quiet about it. There's been discussion as to why by the usual talking heads and sometimes they think the government should talk more about the Senkaku territorial water intrusions and that people should know about it. They feel that it risks undermining Japanese control of the islands by being so quiet about it. But there have been some points explaining why the government is quiet about it which are if it is talk more about it, then it might give China more influence with the intrusions because regular people will likely want to just resolve it somehow if they keep hearing about it. Or it may make people think that China has a better than they really do claim on the islands which could consequently get people to urge a solution finding policy. Reasons like that are given. The intrusions seldom get on regular TV media, although major events like the 2010 boat ramming, 2012 nationalization and August 2016 get covered. Some newspaper and online will make short reports about the intrusions though, in which case, as expected, the right wing Sankei reports them more than the others in my observations. Some recent examples..

https://www.sankei.c...9010028-n1.html

https://www.sankei.c...9210039-n1.html

https://www.sankei.c...8310037-n1.html

https://www.sankei.c...7300005-n1.html

 

Here is that spike in August 2016 with some coverage.

http://www.tank-net....39564&p=1258639

https://www.youtube....h?v=P3OJHoU0_fk

https://www.youtube....h?v=vthyXCisbO4

This December 2016 one talking about that year's worth of intrusions for 2016 including the August episode.

https://www.youtube....h?v=3FH7LAgjdkw

 

But lately, I don't see it on TV, just on the printed/digital media. Lots of other things of course though, like DPRK and the South China Sea.


Edited by JasonJ, 29 September 2018 - 0655 AM.

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