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Kiev Is Burning


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#4061 wilhelm

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Posted 02 July 2014 - 1116 AM

Some pretty horrific footage is beginning to emerge of civilians killed due to MRL and artillery strikes.

 

The silence from politicians about this here in the West is bizarre... :angry:


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#4062 glenn239

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Posted 02 July 2014 - 1120 AM

The aerial casualties (rotary and fixed wing) versus sorties and results achieved seem very high in this conflict to me.

 

Granted, we are not privy to the sortie numbers but it still appears, from this distance at least, that the casualty ratio is relatively high.

 

Might be that recent NATO conflicts use more precision guided weapons that allow aircraft to stay above shoulder fired IR range.  Almost makes me wonder if

 

http://en.wikipedia....i/Bachem_Ba_349

 

+

 

http://www.raytheon....roducts/aim-9x/

 

= Profit!


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#4063 Gregory

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Posted 02 July 2014 - 1127 AM

Some pretty horrific footage is beginning to emerge of civilians killed due to MRL and artillery strikes.

 

The silence from politicians about this here in the West is bizarre... :angry:

 

Probably because they realize UkrAF does not have the capacity to do precision bombing.


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#4064 wilhelm

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Posted 02 July 2014 - 1141 AM

 

Some pretty horrific footage is beginning to emerge of civilians killed due to MRL and artillery strikes.

 

The silence from politicians about this here in the West is bizarre... :angry:

 

Probably because they realize UkrAF does not have the capacity to do precision bombing.

 

That makes no sense with regard to whether they comment or not.

 

You'd expect "We hope the Ukrainian government to exhaust all means necessary wrt negotiations..... limit strikes....ensure life and property of non-combabtants are respected.....we are concerned about the footage showing civilian death...... etc...etc...etc" all the usual warnings trotted out to all and sundry in events such as these.

 

Yet.....nothing. Not a peep.

 

 

In any event, Multiple Rocket Launcher barrages into residential areas are not needed, and have nothing to do with even attempting precision.

 

As said earlier, this has all the makings of spiralling out of control and widening.

 

Whatever transpires, one wonders what will happen to the local populace when and if this is concluded. This will not go away unless a sizeable percentage of the populace is "made to go away".....


Edited by wilhelm, 02 July 2014 - 1144 AM.

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#4065 swerve

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Posted 02 July 2014 - 1156 AM

 

I can't disagree, what I worry about is that The Crimea's "border" is, essentially, a line in the sand (mud).  If Kiev's troops do manage to take back the rest of Eastern Ukraine SOMEONE has to stop them from getting carried away and continuing into The Crimea.  We all know how "restrained" successful generals are at keeping their troops the right side of a disputed line - especially when those troops think that crossing the border is the right thing to do.

 

Likewise, whatever the Russians think about Eastern Ukraine, they need to make sure that that border is NOT crossed and just how restrained do you think they will be about ensuring that the Kiev politicians and generals get the message loud and clear ?

 

I may not like it but the only thing I can imagine that might keep things somewhat under control is a buffer zone in Eastern Ukraine against the border with Crimea.  Problem is I cannot see Russia being so sensible or Kiev being so accommodating.

 

It sounds as if you're a bit confused about the geography. Crimea has no border with the territory in Eastern Ukraine that is being fought over. It is a peninsula that is damn near an island, with a very narrow isthmus connecting it with the mainland of Ukraine. The neighbouring part of Ukraine is not being fought over.

 

Where would this buffer zone be?

 

In the east, where the fighting is, the Ukrainians know they're outnumbered & outgunned by the Russian forces across the border, & I'm certain they're being kept strictly on the right side of the border. A few shells have fallen on the wrong side, but I reckon that's accidental: the Ukrainian army does not look exactly well-trained.


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#4066 Roman Alymov

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Posted 02 July 2014 - 1204 PM

  The neighbouring part of Ukraine is not being fought over. 

It is not because there is no support for  separatism there, but because it was effectively suppressed (the same in Kharkov, where initially were huge rallies for federalisation). If pro-Ukrainians loss battle in Donbass and not able to maintain strict control over population – all this zone would be lost for them, especially taking into account economic collapse approaching. Even now Ukrainian troops positioned there “to prevent Russian offensive from Crimea” argue about being not welcomed by locals.


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#4067 carrierlost

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Posted 02 July 2014 - 1207 PM

Separatists claim to have aquired SA-13 Gopher.


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#4068 Roman Alymov

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Posted 02 July 2014 - 1212 PM

Separatists claim to have aquired SA-13 Gopher.

Seems to be true ( also might be AT-6 Spiral )

 

5754779.jpg


Edited by Roman Alymov, 02 July 2014 - 1217 PM.

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#4069 Gregory

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Posted 02 July 2014 - 1254 PM

 

  The neighbouring part of Ukraine is not being fought over. 

It is not because there is no support for  separatism there, but because it was effectively suppressed (the same in Kharkov, where initially were huge rallies for federalisation). If pro-Ukrainians loss battle in Donbass and not able to maintain strict control over population – all this zone would be lost for them, especially taking into account economic collapse approaching. Even now Ukrainian troops positioned there “to prevent Russian offensive from Crimea” argue about being not welcomed by locals.

 

 

To be fair, that could be said about any part of Russia - if Russian troops and security services were removed from the area, I'm sure local separatist movements capable of mobilizing thousands would spring up in short order.  Regarding economic collapse - I'm sure Russia will shortly discover that all kinds of Ukrainian imports are bad for Russian consumer's health.  :rolleyes:


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#4070 Gregory

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Posted 02 July 2014 - 1256 PM

Thought I had seen one on that train video someone posted up the other day. Doesnt me it WAS the same one, but it makes you wonder.

 

Thats a serious gamechanger. Not that an SA13 is any more sophisticated than a handheld SA14, but we are looking at an airforce as others have pointed out seems to lack any practical skills for survival. As soon as some Shilkas turn up, they are going to be cacking themelves.

 

The state of Ukrainian AF is probably what's behind the switch to MRLS and heavy artillery systems.


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#4071 X-Files

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Posted 02 July 2014 - 1411 PM

What was that about economic stranglehold?

 

 

Belgrade (AFP) - Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said Tuesday his country would not give up on Russia's controversial South Stream gas pipeline project as it was key to securing the country's energy supplies.

The crisis in Ukraine has made the planned pipeline bringing Siberian gas to the European Union -- bypassing Ukraine -- a new focus of tensions between Moscow, Brussels and Washington.

 

http://news.yahoo.co...-204913032.html


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#4072 Gregory

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Posted 02 July 2014 - 2257 PM

The latest set of news seems to indicate that the Ukrainians are making good progress.  According to government press releases, several towns around Slavyansk have been liberated, with reasonably low casualties.  The total casualties for the day are 5 KIA, 30 WIA. The black circles are army positions on the 1st, the red ones on the 2nd.

 

1404357675996696.jpg

 

The advance has been confirmed by head military honcho of DNR, Strelkov, who said that now his forces are surrounded.  The army claims that separatists have suffered about 600 casualties in the last few days.  While their numbers are unreliable, it's likely separatists have suffered significant casualties if they are retreating. Applying a time honored factor of 3 to correct for overclaims, a figure of 50 separatist KIA and 150 WIA seems reasonable.


Edited by Gregory, 02 July 2014 - 2301 PM.

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#4073 Roman Alymov

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Posted 03 July 2014 - 0158 AM

Pro-Russians firing Fagot (?) on Ukrainian tank (seems like hit). Strange to see it without AllaAckbar soundtrack....

“Do not hurry. Breathe out.” 

“Going good. Now let’s move away, guys”

 


Edited by Roman Alymov, 03 July 2014 - 0208 AM.

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#4074 Roman Alymov

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Posted 03 July 2014 - 0219 AM

 

Fair point. And it illustrates the inherent problem with the EU, how can one have a common foreign policy when everyone is running off on their own to do shabby deals for short term benefit?

If no Russian NG, who is to supply Hungary and who is to pay expenses? EU tax payers have a lot of free money to pay additional costs?

Common foreign policy is expensive toy to play, and it is unfair to blame poor countries for being unwilling to carry extra burden.


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#4075 Roman Alymov

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Posted 03 July 2014 - 0524 AM

 

They DID want the benefits of joining the EU, just as Greece did. If one cannot blame them for not being willing to live up to their commitments, whom do you blame?


 

 

I doubt taking part in trade wars of such scale (threatening to ruin individual country economy) was on the list at the time they take decision to join. No situation is different and they are not alone to be unhappy with EU policy (including AFAIK Britain).

    Some modernized Ukrainian armor

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10377532_728320027230505_899668439402866


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#4076 Yama

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Posted 03 July 2014 - 0530 AM

They DID want the benefits of joining the EU, just as Greece did. If one cannot blame them for not being willing to live up to their commitments, whom do you blame?


But the burden does not fall equally. Smaller & poorer countries geographically closer to Russia will be hurt more by sanctions than large West EU countries. I'm all for the "what's the price of freedom" etc rhetorics, but it's hypocritical to expect other countries to "take one for the team".
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#4077 BansheeOne

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Posted 03 July 2014 - 0615 AM

The latest set of news seems to indicate that the Ukrainians are making good progress.  According to government press releases, several towns around Slavyansk have been liberated, with reasonably low casualties.  The total casualties for the day are 5 KIA, 30 WIA. The black circles are army positions on the 1st, the red ones on the 2nd.

 

1404357675996696.jpg

 

The advance has been confirmed by head military honcho of DNR, Strelkov, who said that now his forces are surrounded.  The army claims that separatists have suffered about 600 casualties in the last few days.  While their numbers are unreliable, it's likely separatists have suffered significant casualties if they are retreating. Applying a time honored factor of 3 to correct for overclaims, a figure of 50 separatist KIA and 150 WIA seems reasonable.

 

Looks like an intense slugging match. From the updates on the interactive map you linked to earlier, certainly no dashing advances; I suppose the active Ukrainian dots which show up at Luhansk etc. in the middle of separatist-held territory are aerial attacks rather than ground operations.

 

Meanwhile, international talks are continueing on the side.

 

July 2, 2014 9:43 pm

 

Ukraine crisis: Kiev and Moscow in call for ceasefire talks

 

By Stefan Wagstyl in Berlin

 

France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine on Wednesday called for a new effort for a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine, setting a deadline of Saturday for the resumption of three-way talks between Kiev, Moscow and representatives of the OSCE, the Europe-wide security body.

 

Meeting in Berlin, the four countries’ foreign ministers said the contact group should “resume no later than July 5 with the goal of reaching an unconditional and mutually agreed sustainable ceasefire”.


It was not immediately clear how this latest call for talks would bring together the two sides in the violent conflict in eastern Ukraine, where Kiev’s troops are battling against pro-Russia separatists.

 

Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko earlier this week scrapped a unilateral ceasefire after Kiev said the separatists had ignored the truce and attacked Ukrainian troops killing 27 and injuring scores of others.

 

In Berlin, Frank-Walter Steinmeier of Germany, Russia’s Sergei Lavrov, Pavlo Klimkin from Ukraine and Laurent Fabius of France said in a joint statement they “strongly reconfirm their commitment to sustainable peace and stability in Ukraine”.

 

They agreed to “take all necessary measures” to achieve a ceasefire and “use their influence on the concerned parties”. They welcomed Russia’s readiness to grant Ukrainian border guards access to Russian territory to help control the frontier once the ceasefire was in place. OSCE monitors are also to be deployed on the border once the fighting stops.

 

The agreement echoes that reached by the leaders of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine earlier this week, which was put on hold after Mr Poroshenko ended his ceasefire.

 

Earlier, German chancellor Angela Merkel warned that further economic sanctions against Russia could be on the way if there were no de-escalation of the conflict. She said: “As regards sanctions against Russia, we have so far reached level two and we cannot rule out having to go further.”

 

http://www.ft.com/cm...l#ixzz36P52KuyH


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#4078 Roman Alymov

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Posted 03 July 2014 - 0635 AM


Well when Britain is quite happy to sell out all its policies to keep the city of London laden with Russian cash, yes you clearly have a point. But it would be worth illustrating to the Hungarians that if the Russians are indeed embarking on on a revanchist policy, they are going to be among the first to suffer from it.

 

Let’s take it for a moment Russia is acting out of “revanchist policy”. What might be the use for Russia to attack Hungarians? 

Seems irrational for me, and probably Hungarians share this point of view.


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#4079 Roman Alymov

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Posted 03 July 2014 - 0641 AM

Strelkov just reported 20 RPG-18 failed today – as a result Ukrainians suffered no armor losses on entering Nikolaevka.  This RPG-18 was old stuff from Ukrainian army stocks. The same story as it was with Karachun mountain capture  - but it was only three faulty RPGs at the time (but it was all they have at the time)


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#4080 Yama

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Posted 03 July 2014 - 0754 AM

Strelkov doesn't seem to be afraid reporting negative developments, which makes him sound refreshingly realistic (dunno if he actually is) compared to usual Iraqi Information Minister-style rhetorics more common from this kind of groups: "FASCIST REGIME ATTACKS REPULSED ON EVERY FRONT COWARDLY ENEMIES DESTROYED BY THOUSANDS!!!!111".
 

Well when Britain is quite happy to sell out all its policies to keep the city of London laden with Russian cash, yes you clearly have a point. But it would be worth illustrating to the Hungarians that if the Russians are indeed embarking on on a revanchist policy, they are going to be among the first to suffer from it.


I think current Hungarian administration would be more than happy to ally with Putin should Russian tanks roll next to the border...

Edited by Yama, 03 July 2014 - 0755 AM.

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